the energy challenge and green power professor k.b. chan chairman, hong kong electronic industries...

The Energy ChallengeThe Energy Challengeandand

GreenGreen Power Power

Professor K.B. ChanChairman, Hong Kong Electronic Industries Association

WEFShenzhen, ChinaNovember 15, 2009

Ref No.: SMT-CDV-091110WEF-Rev. 2.0

ContentsThe Global problems

The energy challenge

The CO2 issue

What actions to take?

Renewable

100% Green Power?

Conclusion

HKEIAThe Global Problems

• 1. Population 2009 6.8 billion

2040 9 billion + ( ~ 30% increase )• 2. Enough Resources? Quality Resources?

Land Food Raw Material Air

Energy Water• 3. Economy

Growth Poverty• 4. Environment

Climate Pollution Waste

HKEIAThe Energy Challenge

• Currently the world consumes total energy of

~ 16 TW ~ 2.4 kW per capita

( T = tera or trillion = 1,000 billion )

• By 2030 it will be

~ 23 TW ~ 40% increase

due to growth in economy, population

• Very uneven distribution – kW per capita 2009

USA -10, UK - 5, China – 2, Bangladesh – 0.2

HKEIA

World’s primary energy supply :

• 80% - burning fossil fuels• 43% oil, 32% coal, 25% natural gas• 10% - burning combustible

renewables and waste• 5% - nuclear• 5% - hydro• 0.5%- geothermal, solar, wind, . . .

HKEIA

% of electrical output World China

Coal 41% 80%

Oil 6% 2%

Gas 20% 0.5%

Nuclear 15% 0.2%

Hydro 16% 15%

Bio & waste 1.3% -

Geo 0.3% -

Wind 0.7% 1.4%

Solar* 0.02 -

~ 11TW, 64% of primary energy

Electricity –

HKEIAFossil fuel is running out soon!

Energy Timescales

Years Remaining

Oil 40 ~ 50

Natural Gas 60

Coal 120 ~ 200

If economic & population growth increase faster, the above period will shorten!

Source: “Statistical Review of World Energy 2009”, (www.bp.com)

http://www.bp.com/

HKEIAOil supply

Note: discoveries back-dated

HKEIAThe CO2 issueThe CO2 issue

World Carbon DioxideEmission, Billion Metric Tons

29.0 30.433.1

35.437.9

40.4

31.0

0.05.0

10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0

2006 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

- Again unbalanced (Tonnes per person/yr)- World - 4.4, USA - 19, UK - 8.6,- China - 4.6, Bangladesh - 0.25

Source: Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2009

HKEIAGlobal warming & Pollution - Forecast

2050, sea level rise 1 meter

10% world populations will lose their homelands

2050 in China, output of crops will down 30% due to water shortage

Premature deaths caused by air pollution in each year:

Globally - 2 million deaths, China 650,000, India - 530,000,

USA - 41,000

HKEIAUrgent tasks ahead for the world

• Reverse global warming • Reduce CO2 emission• Optimize fossil fuel consumption• Develop alternative energy source• Transition to 100% sustainable Green power• Maintain balanced economic growth

• Mission impossible???

HKEIA What actions to take?

• 1. Reduce energy use• 2. De-carbonization• 3. Develop sustainable Green Power• 4. Devise economic tools & political will power to make the above happenQuestions :• 1. Is there a solution at all?• 2. Too little & too late?

HKEIAReduce energy use

Where used – developed economy

Industry ~ 25%

Transport ~ 25%

Built/Environment/appliance ~ 50%

( private & commercial )

Industry – not much can be done! Could use more for economic growth

HKEIABuilt/Environment/Appliance

• Improve in building design can save > 30%

Housing stock take 100 years turn over• Efficient appliance, heating & cooling

Change of lifestyle

Investment• Lighting ~ 20% of electricity use

replace incandescent bulb by LED

even 100% cut consumption by 3%

Above can help but not enough!

HKEIATransport

• 900million cars now, 2,100 million in 2030• Almost 100% internal combustion engine, huge consumption of oil & emit CO2• Solution :• 1. More efficient engine by 50% just use less oil & less CO2• 2. Electric cars – hybrid, plug in battery issue, infrastructure & green electricity• 3. Hydrogen car too expensive and no infrastructure Pace of introduction of green cars too slow!

HKEIACO2 target – IEA 450 scenario

CO2 rises to 510 ppm 2035 – 2045, then declines very slowly to 450 ppm

HKEIADe-carbonization

NeutralizationNeutralization Our earth has 4 million hectare of Jungle can

neutralize 97 billion metric tons of CO2 per year

The neutralization will saturate in ~ 100 yearsHowever, forest is disappearing fast due to

urbanization and over exploit of woodAction : reduce wood usage find alternative e.g. bamboo re-forest

HKEIADe-carbonization

• CCS – Carbon Capture & Storage

• As we will still depend on fossil fuel for main electricity generation till 2030 and beyond, another 100 years?

• Design & build higher efficient power plants

• Develop and deploy technology to capture and burial of CO2 from power stations and large industrial plants!

HKEIARenewable energy & Green Power

• 1. Biofuel

• 2. Hydro & tidal

• 3. Geothermal

• 4. Wind

• 5. Solar

• 6. Nuclear

HKEIA Biofuel

• 1. Ethanol –• 1.1 G1 – Corn, sugar cane

Only 2% gain Disrupt food chain

• 1.2 G2 - cellulose Ready in 2013? Scale up issue

• 2. Biomass• 2.1 Methane lock in permafrost Technology not ready May upset environment ** Both still emit CO2, just less. Use to reduce oil consumption

HKEIAHydro, tidal, geothermal, wind

• 1. Hydro – most available sites identified• 2. Tidal – specific region• 3. Geothermal – specific region

• 4. Wind Mature technology however unstable

only 25% efficiency

HKEIASolar

• 1. Concentrate• 2. Photovoltaic• • Unstable - sun dependent• Night time issue• Storage issue• Both technology are mature• Highly scalable• Need cost down• Government incentive

HKEIANuclear

• 1. Fission• Good solution• Safe but social barrier• Uranium last only 80 yrs at current rate• Waste treatment• Fear of “making the bomb”• 2. Fast breeder • Small scale & takes 12 years cycle• 3. Thorium• Experimental • 4. Fusion• Theoretical best solution but not yet success

HKEIAThe challenge – 100% Green Power

• To replace all 11 TW with renewables needs

• Hydro ~ 1.5 TW

• Nuclear ~ 1 TW

• Wind ~ 3.5 TW

• Solar ~ 2.5 TW Concentrate

• 2.5 TW Photovoltaic

HKEIAWe need to build - minimum

• 300 more hydro stations @ 1 GW• 1,000 nuclear power stations @ 1 GW • 700,000 large wind turbines @ 5 mW• 8,300 solar concentrates @ 300mW• 8,300 solar farms @ 300mW

• Efficiency not taking into account!

• Other Issues : Investment? Time required? Trigger other environmental issues? Engineering man power?

HKEIAThe material hurdle

• The world does not have enough critical raw materials to build them

• Silver• Lithium• Indium• Tellurium• Platinum• Rare earth elements

HKEIAPossible scenario - IEA

HKEIAThe conclusion 1

• Huge increase in energy demand and growing• Global warming is real and imminent, due to CO2• Fossil fuels will still be used for quite a long time• The reserve can be stretched and CO2 reduced by

Reduction in consumption

De-carbonization

Efficient power plants

Efficient appliance, building, cars

Change in lifestyle

HKEIAThe conclusion 2

• Big challenge in developing & deploying

environmental friendly technology• All formats are needed, main ones are

hydro, wind, solar, nuclear• Many hurdles to overcome• Huge R&D effort • Huge investment & long build up time• Global effort• Political will power is the final key!

The electronic industry is The electronic industry is deeply involved in all deeply involved in all

aspects.aspects.We are part of the We are part of the solutionsolution

as well as part of the as well as part of the problemproblem!!

Action is Action is Now!Now! Do not wait for CopenhagenDo not wait for Copenhagen

the energy challenge and green power professor k.b. chan chairman, hong kong electronic industries...

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