the end of centralizationphoenixcapitalmarketing.com/pwa161.pdfjune 29 2016 short-term issues...

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The End of Centralization

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TheBREXITmightbethesinglemostinsightfulissueofthelastsevenyears.WhathasBREXITshownus?

1) Thatthemediaand“experts”areinfactheavilybiasedindividualswhoareunabletomaintainanyobjectivityaboutmajorissues.

2) Thatpollsandeconomicsurveysarenolongeraccurate(seemyspecialupdateontheBREXITfromlastweekformoredetailsonthis).

3) ThattheEraofCentralizationisover.

4) Thattherearenoactualcontingencyplans

forwhentheinevitablerevolts(politicalorfinancial)begin.

Regarding#1,overthelast16years,ithasbecomeroutinefor“experts”andpunditstomissMAJORissuesbyignoringdatapointsthatdon’tconfirmtheirownviews,onlytolaterproclaim,“noonesawthiscoming”whenacrisiserupts.WhetherwearetalkingabouttheTechBubble,HousingBubble,EUCrisisof2011-2012,USDollarbullmarket/OilCrashof2014,China’shardlandingortheBREXIT,therehavebeenrepeatedinstancesinwhichthe“experts”completelymissedglaringissues.Youcouldeasilyfillabookwiththevariousexplanationsforwhythisis.However,Ibelievetheyallultimatelyboildowntotwokeyitems:

The End of Centralization June 29 2016

SHORT-TERM ISSUES

• FourmajorimplicationsoftheBREXIT

• BritishPoundandJapaneseYensignalacrisishasbegun.

• Safehavenbondyieldsgonegativeoutto30years.INTERMEDIATE-TERM

ISSUES • GlobalGDPtoplungeasdeleveragingaccelerates.

• CentralBankstopushforNegativeRatesandpossiblycashbans.LONG-TERM ISSUES

• CentralBankstolosecredibility.• Eventualmarketcollapseof50%+(likely1-2yearsout).

• Ascrambleforhigh-endcollateraltobringaboutsystemiccollapse.

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1) Theinabilitytoperceiveone’sownbias/tendencytowardsgroupthink.

2) Careerrisk.Regarding#1,everyonehasanaturalbias.Theproblemwithmanyinthe“expert/media”classtodayisthattheyusuallyonlyassociatewiththoseinthatsameclass.Inthiscontextitisverydifficultfortheseindividualstoavoidgroupthinkasthevastmajorityofthem(media-types/talkingheads)onlyassociatewithotherswholiveinthesamemetrocenters,liveinthesamesocialclass,andruninthesamesocialcircles.Thereisnothingwrongwithassociatingwithotherswhohavethesameviews.However,whenone’sjobistopresenthisorherviewsasfactualanalysistotherestofthepublic,confirmationbiascanbearealproblem.Thisisparticularlytrueinthehighestechelonsofthepolitical/financialelite,suchasCentralBanks.ThefactisthatindividualslikeJanetYellenonlyassociatewithhigh-levelpublicpolicymakersandWallStreetbanks.Indeed,evenamongstDC’swealthiest,mostconnectedindividuals,JanetYellenisisolatedbyherprominenceintheeconomy.

IntheGeorgetowngatedcommunityofHillandale,residentsliveinsecludedcalmgovernedbysome50pagesofrulesbanningfences,motorcycles,certainpaintcolors,treespeciesandexcessdogsandcats(nomorethantwototalperhousehold)…Thenoneofthemostpowerfuleconomicpolicymakersintheworldmovedinand,inthewordsofsomehere,ruinedtheneighborhood.Asneighborstellit,earlierthisyear,thesecuritydetailprotectingnewFederalReserveChairwomanJanetYellenbarreledthroughthecul-de-sacwhereshelivesinoversizevansloadedwithguns,camerasandtakeoutpizza.Itestablishedan"armedcamp"nextdoortoMs.Forman'stownhome,accordingtoawrittenbillofgrievancespresentedbyconcernedneighborsdeemingtheuniformedpolicepresence"uncomfortableforresidentsofvariousreligiouspersuasions,"suchasQuakers…"Thegovernmentispaying$5,000or$6,000amonthormoretorentawholetownhouseinGeorgetowntoputcopsin,"saysinternationalattorneyWilliamShawn,wholivesdownthestreetfromthenewcomers.Isthisreallynecessary,hewonders,toprotectanunarmedeconomistfromBrooklyn?http://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-s-security-detail-irks-neighbors-1404095412

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Inthislight,thenotionthatYellenmightbeevenremotelyconnectedwith“lifeonMainStreet”isabsurd.SmallwonderthenthatshecannotunderstandcriticismsofFedpolicy.Afterall,everyonetheFedChairassociateswithisinthewealthiest0.1%andhasseenhisorherwealthincreaseexponentiallythankstothebullmarketinstocksandrealestate.SoYellenisundoubtedlysurroundedbyindividualswhoreflectherownbiasofbelievingsheisrightinherpolicychoices.ThisiswhytheFedneverseesbubblescoming.ItisalsowhytheFed’sforecastsaresoinaccurate.NomatterhowintelligentaFedofficialmightbe,heorsheisstillhumanandhasthehumanweaknessofconfirmationbias.Throwinthefactthatpollsandsurveysarenolongeraccurate(moreonthismomentarily)andyouquicklyrealizejustwhythereissuchaHUGEgapbetweenthepolicymakers’forecastsandeconomicrealities.Fedofficialsareontheextremeendofthepoliticalspectrum,butitisworthnotingthatthoseinthemediaarejustapronetomakethesamemistakes.Thisisespeciallytruegiventhecareerriskassociatedwithbeingoverlycriticalofthoseinpower.Ifyou’veeverwonderedhowitispossiblethatsofewjournalistsareabletowritecriticallyaboutwhat’sgoingonintheworldtoday,thebelowarticleisextremelyinformative:

Thejobhe[Rhodes]washiredtodo,namelytohelpthepresidentoftheUnitedStatescommunicatewiththepublic,waschanginginequallysignificantways…Itishardformanytoabsorbthetruemagnitudeofthechangeinthenewsbusiness—40percentofnewspaper-industryprofessionalshavelosttheirjobsoverthepastdecade—inpartbecausereaderscanabsorballthenewstheywantfromsocial-mediaplatformslikeFacebook…Rhodessingledoutakeyexampletomeoneday,lacedwiththebrutalcontemptthatisahallmarkofhisprivateutterances.“Allthesenewspapersusedtohaveforeignbureaus,”hesaid.“Nowtheydon’t.Theycallustoexplaintothemwhat’shappeninginMoscowandCairo.MostoftheoutletsarereportingonworldeventsfromWashington.Theaveragereporterwetalktois27yearsold,andtheironlyreportingexperienceconsistsofbeingaroundpoliticalcampaigns.That’saseachange.Theyliterallyknownothing.”http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/08/magazine/the-aspiring-novelist-who-became-obamas-foreign-policy-guru.html?_r=0

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“Rhodes”intheabovequoteisBenjaminRhodes,theDeputyNationalSecurityAdvisorforStrategicCommunicationsfortheObamaadministration.TheabovearticlefocusesontheIrandeal,butforourpurposes,weshouldnotethatthisisaHIGHLYconnectedinsiderpointingoutthat:

• Themainstreammediahasundergoneamajorshift.

• Thatshifthasresultedinnearlyhalfofthoseemployedbythenewspaperindustrylosingtheirjobs.

• Thosereporterswhoremainareyoung,generallyuninformed,andseekinginsights

fromtheverygroupstheyaremeanttoreporton!Ifthisiscorrectconcerningforeignpolicy,itisDOUBLYcorrectforeconomicandfinancialpolicy.HowmanyjournalistshaveanMBAorhavetradedthemarkets?Lessthan1%?Iwanttobeclearhere…IamNOTwritingthistomockthemedia.ButtheabovestatementsgoalongwaystowardsexplainingwhysofewinthemediaunderstandcomplicatedeconomicorfinancialissuessuchastheBREXIT.Throwinthefactthatthemediaingeneralisonthedecline(meaningcareerriskishightobeginwith)aswellasthefactthatthosewhoareopenlycriticaloftheelitesinthemediaoftenfindthemselvesunemployed,andyoucanquicklyseewhysofewareabletowriteknowledgeableorobjectivelyaboutthingsliketheTechBubble,foreignpolicy,ormorerecently,theBREXIT.Imentionallofthis,becauseitisimportanttounderstandjustwhymajoreventsliketheBREXITarenotpredictedaccurately.ItisalsowhysofewarecurrentlyexpectingarecessionintheUSoramajordevaluationofChina’sYuanwhichI’vebeenwarningaboutformonthsnow.TheTruthAbouttheBREXITIntermsoftheBREXITitself,goingintothevote,thebookingodds,aswellasthevastmajorityof“experts”believedthataBREXITwasimpossible.However,thefactisthatapreponderanceofdatasuggestedaBREXITwasnotonlycoming,butthatitwouldbenefitBritaininkeyways.

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Firstandforemost,theEUhadfallendramaticallyintermsofsignificanceasanexportmarketfortheUK.Indeed,theEU,asapercentageoftotalexports,haddroppedfrom60%in2000downto47%in2015.

FiguresfromtheONSshowedthatEuropeisgraduallybecomingalessimportantdestinationforUKcompanies.In2000,60%ofexportswenttootherEUcountries,butthepercentagefellto58%in2005,54%in2010and47%in2015.Overthesameperiod,importsfromtheEUremainedconstant,accountingfor54%inboth2000and2015.EuropehastendedtobealesscrucialmarketforUKservicesectorcompanies,manyofwhomhaveclosebusinesslinkswiththeUS.Since2000,thepercentageofservicessectorexportsgoingtotheEUhasremainedataround40%.Takinggoodsandservicestogether,theshareofexportsgoingtotheEUhasfallenfrom54%in2000to44%in2015.https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit

Withimportsremainingconstantandexportsfalling,theUKwasrunningarecorddeficitwiththeEU.AnyonepayingattentiontothiscouldseehowmanyintheUKwouldbeinfavorofleaving.ThisisparticularlytruewhenyouconsiderthattheUKnowcanformspecialindividualtradedealswithvariousindividualEUmembers(Germanyinparticular,forwhomtheUKisthemostprofitabletradingpartner).Secondly,therewasthenotedriseinNationalismoccurringintheUK.AsIwroteinlastweek’smarketupdate,Nationalismisnowthedominanttrendforglobalpolitics.Pleaseunderstand,Iamnotpickingonesideortheotherhere,butitwasplaintoanyonewhobotheredlookingatthedatathatanincreasingnumberofUKcitizenswereFedupwiththeEU’soverarchinggoalofglobalismandwouldvoteinfavorofaBREXIT.Foramoredetailedanalysisofthisandwhypollsandsurveysarenolongeraccurate,pleaseseelastweek’sSpecialUpdateontheBREXIT.Thekeyitemstoknowarethatglobally,moreandmoreindividualsdistrusttheirgovernments.IntheUS,50%ofAmericansfeeltheGovernmentisanimmediatethreattotheirrightsandfreedoms.Over70%feeltheUSeconomyisriggedtofavorcertaingroups.Andonly6%havea

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greatdealofconfidenceinthemedia.Inthislight,ANYdatapointthatreliesonsurveysofanykindisgoingtobeworthless.Itdoesn’tmatterhowsophisticatedyourmodelisforpoliticaloreconomicforecasts,iftheinputs(inthiscasesurveyresponses)aregarbage,yourpredictionsaregarbage.Thiscoversthefirsttwoitemsfromourinitiallist…

1) Thatthemediaand“experts”areinfactheavilybiasedindividualswhoareunabletomaintainanyobjectivityaboutmajorissues.

2) Thatpollsandeconomicsurveysarenolongeraccurate(seemyspecialupdateontheBREXITfromlastweekformoredetailsonthis).

…nowlet’smoveontothelasttwo…BREXITprovedthat…

3) ThattheEraofCentralizationisover.

4) Thattherearenoactualcontingencyplansforwhentheinevitablerevolts(politicalorfinancial)begin.

ThemostcriticalelementoftheBREXITisthatitisTHEclosingbellbeingrungontheperiodofCentralizationfrom2009totoday.Theperiodof2009totodayhasbeenmarkedbyCentralization:CentralPlanningoftheglobaleconomybyCentralBanks.IntheUS,we’veseentheFederalGovernment/FederalReservebecomeinvolvedinvirtuallyeverymajorindustryintheeconomyincludinginsurance,healthcare,housing/mortgages,banking,financialservices,andevenenergy.TheUSisnotuniqueinthisregard.JapanandtheEUhavealsobeeninaperiodofCentralization,withtheirrespectiveCentralBanksbecomingincreasinglyinvolvedintheirrespectiveeconomies.TheBREXIThasendedthis.Forcertain,thingswerealreadybecomingfracturedduetoCentralBanks’relianceoncompetitivedevaluation.Inaworldoffiat,allmajorcurrenciesarepricedagainstabasketoftheirpeers.SowhenoneCentralBankengagesinaparticularpolicywiththeintentofdevaluingitscurrency,thatsamepolicyinevitablyputsupwardspressureonothercurrencies.

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From2008-2013,therewasadegreeofcoordinationbetweenCentralBank.ThebestexamplewouldbewhentheFedlaunchedQE3in2012,coordinatingthispolicywiththeECB’sOMTprogram.Atthattime,theeconomicdataintheUSwasinfactimprovingandtheFedshouldhavebeentightening.QE3wasasmuchagifttotheEUasanything.However,startingwiththeBankofJapan’smassiveQEprogramin2013,everythingchanged.Atthatpoint,CentralBanksbeganemployingmoreextremepolicies…policiesthatputtremendouspressureonothercurrencies…policieslikeQEprogramsinexcessof$1trillion…orNIRP.Atthispoint,CentralizationbegantocomeapartasCentralBankswerenowoutrightdamagingeachother’seffortstodevaluetheircurrencies.However,itwasn’tuntilBREXITthatwereceivedaREALnailinthecoffinforCentralization.Letmeexplain.IntheworldofCentralPlanning,politics,noteconomics,drivespolicy.AnysensibleeconomistwouldhaverealizedQEandZIRPcouldn’tgenerateGDPgrowtharound2011.However,intheworldofCentralPlanning,thepoliticalimplicationsofadmittingthis(relinquishingcontrolofthefinancialsystemandpermittingdebtdefaults/restructuringtobegin)isakintopoliticalsuicide.Putanotherway,ifJanetYellenorMarioDraghiweretostageapressconferencetostate“mylife’sworkisincorrect,Ihavenoideahowtogenerategrowth,itistimeformarketforcestotakeholdandpricediscoverytooccur”notonlytheybutEVERYotherCentralBankingeconomist/academicwouldsoonbeunemployed.Forthisreason,theendofCentralizatonwasonlygoingtocomethroughoneoftwoways:

1) Politically(ifvotersfinallyrevoltedagainstthestatusquo).2) FinanciallyifmarketforcesbecamesointensethateventheCentralBankslostcontrolof

thesystem.WithBrexit,we’vealreadyhad#1.We’renowonourwayto#2.99%ofanalystsarefocusingonthefactstockshavebouncedaftertheBREXIT.Thisistakentoindicatethattheworsthaspassed.AsIhaverepeatedlystated,stocksarealwaysthelastassetclassto“GETIT.”Thefirstassetclasstoreacttomajortectonicshiftsinthefinancialsystemisthecurrencymarkets.

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Takealookatthefollowingcharts.TheBritishpoundhastakenouta30-yearsupportline.ThislineHELDduringBlackWednesdayaswellasduringthe2008Crisis.Ithasnowbroken.Thedooriseasilyopentoa20%-25%devaluation.

TheJapaneseYen/USDollarpairviolatedits30-yearbullmarkettrendlineinlate2015.TherecentstrengthintheYen/weaknessintheUSDollarhasresultedinabriefreclaimingofthisline.Butifwedon’tholdhere,theYENisIMPLODINGandJapanisenteringtheEndGame.Bearinmind,thattheBankofJapanispreparingtolaunchanotherroundofstimulusshortly.

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Theseare“onceinalifetime”moves.Thetrendsthathavesustainedtwooftheworld’sdominantcurrenciessincetheearly‘80shavebeenbroken.Thiskindofcurrencyvolatilitywilleventuallyseepintotherestofthefinancialsystem.Thesmartmoney(bonds)hasalreadypickeduponwhat’scomingwithyieldsplungingtonewlowsinsafehavens.TheSwiss10-yearisNEGATIVE.Infact,theSwiss30-yearisnegative.Thishasneverhappenedbefore.Evenwhenthe2008Crisishitandeveryonethoughtthefinancialworldwasliterallygoingtoend,theSwiss30-yearstayedpositive.

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Japan’s10-yearisNEGATIVE.

Letmebeblunthere.

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ThemarketsaretellingusthattheworldissodangerousthatinvestorsarewillingtoPAYthegovernmentsofSwitzerlandandJapanfor10yearsinordertopreservetheircapitalTheUS’s10-yearisatlevelsnotseensincethedepthofthe2012EUCrisis.Thecharttellsus1%ontheUS-10yeariscomingshortly.We’regoingtobehittingalltimelowssoon.

SomethingMAJORishappeningrightnow.Stocksdon’tgetit.Theywon’tforsometime.TakealookatthechartoftheS&P500vs.theyieldontheUS10-yearTreasury.

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Morewarningsignsthatallisnotwellinthesystem…BoththeUSDollarandGoldhaveralliedhardsincetheBREXIT.

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Andfinally,theUSDollarisbreakingouttotheupside:

MypointwithallofthisisthatsomethingBIGisunderwayinthesystem.Thelasttwoday’spriceactionisnottherealstory.We’veusedthismarketvolatilitytolockinanumberofwinners.I’mkeentostartopeningnewpositions,butthereisfartoomuchuncertaintyinthemarketsforustosafelydosonow.Withthatinmind,I’mgoingtosplitthisissueofPrivateWealthAdvisoryintotwosegments.Thefirst(thisone)hasfocusedontheBIGPICTUREforwhatishappeningtoday.Thesecondwillfeaturedetailedchartanalysisofthemarketsaswellasseveralnewinvestmentideasforyou.However,Ineedtoseehowthemarketactsoverthenextfewsessionsbeforepublishingthatsectionoftheissue.Thereisnosenseinrushingintothemarketsnow,whenaoncein30yearseventhasjustoccurred.Solet’sstayonthesidelinesafewmoredays.Assoonasit’sclearwhat’stocome,I’llhavethesecondsectionofthismonth’sPrivateWealthAdvisorytoyou.IbelievethiswillbebyMondayatthelatest.

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Untilthen…

ChiefMarketStrategistPhoenixCapitalResearch

BestRegards,

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OPEN POSITIONS

Pricesasofmarket’scloseon6/29/16.Pricesincludedividends

US DOLLAR CARRY TRADE IMPLOSION PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

UltraBullishDollarETF UUP 5/23/11 $21.79 $24.7914%

UltraShortEuro EUO 4/10/15 $27.68 $24.26 -12% UltraShortYenETF YCS 5/27/15 $94.48 $62.97 -33%

RELATIVE US STRENGTH PORTFOLIO


BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

NuveenMuni.Fund NIO 1/2/14 $13.12 $16.28 41% Wal-Mart WMT 7/30/14 $74.78 $72.46 2% Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $95.82 $92.46 2% 7-10YrTreasuryETF UST 11/26/14 $55.54 $64.40 18%

20+YrTreasuryETF TLT 7/15/15 $116.89 $138.39 21% RPXCorp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $8.89 -43% Apple AAPL 9/11/15 $114.21 $94.40 -16%

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RETAIL RECESSION PORTFOLIO


BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

Amazon(SHORT)* AMZN 2/25/15 $484.19 $715.60 -48% AmericanEagleOutfitters(SHORT) AEO 5/26/16

$15.36 $15.68 -2% Stamps.com(SHORT) STMP 5/26/16

$84.40 $86.51 -3%

INFLATION PORTFOLIO

*Avg.priceof$385.37and$583Pricesasofmarket’scloseon6/29/16.Pricesincludedividends

*Avg.priceof$17.50and$14.97


BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

Gold 3/17/10

$1,120$1,318.00

18%

Silver* 3/17/10

$16.23 $18.35

13%

UraniumETF URA 6/8/16 $15.49 $13.91 -10%

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Pricesasofmarket’scloseon6/29/16.Pricesincludedividends

MARKET HEDGE PORTFOLIO


BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

UltraShortNikkeiETF EWV 1/6/15 $67.46 $48.34 -28% UltraShortEmergingMarketETF* EEV 1/20/16 $31.27 $18.87 -21% UltraShortChinaETF FXP 1/20/16 $59.95 $39.71 -34% UltraShortBrazilETF** BZQ 1/20/16 $110.71 $27.61 -63% UltraShortFinancials*** SKF 2/10/16 $56.82 $45.74 -20% UltraShortRussell2000ETF**** TWM 2/10/16 $47.92 $36.18 -24% UltraShortGoldETF GLL 5/25/16 $69.90 -16%

*Avgpriceof$26.98and$21.08**Avgpriceof$110.71and$38.10***Avgpriceof$60.95and$51.69****Avgpriceof$52.94and$42.90

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BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Apple AAPL 4/2/14 $77.51 9/29/14 $98.84 28%

EuropeanFinancials(SHORT) EUFN 4/15/14 $24.89 10/10/14 $22.47 11%

UltraShortRussell2000 TWM 4/15/14 $49.46 10/10/14 $52.28 6%

UltraShortBrazil BZQ 10/15/14 $62.00 10/21/14 $71.92 16%

UltraShortGold GLL 10/24/14 $94.15 11/14/14 $104.21 11%

UltraShortSilver ZSL 10/24/14 $104.89 11/14/14 $122.00 17%

EnduroRoyaltyTrust NDRO 5/22/13 12.05 11/28/14 $7.06 -26%

UltraShortEuro EOU 1/20/15 $23.49 3/5/15 $26.51 13%

UltraShortBrazil BZQ 1/6/15 $91.07 3/6/15 $100.74 11%

Target TGT 5/28/14 $55.34 4/1/15 $82.13 52%

Pfizer PFE 7/30/14 $29.26 4/1/15 $34.56 20%

GeneralElectric GE 2/5/14 $24.57 4/13/15 $27.89 18%

BPPrudhoeBayRoyaltyTrust BPT 1/2/14

$76.775/20/15 $66.70 5%

ConocoPhillips COP 3/5/14$66.30

5/20/15 $65.27 4%

RussiaETF TRF4/9/15 $10.62 5/20/15 $11.36

7%

RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS

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RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED


BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

UtraShortOilETF SCO 5/27/15 $61.08 7/6/15 $70.30 15%

UltraShortGoldETF GLL 2/25/15 $95.49 7/7/15 $101.75 7%

Copper(SHORT) JJC 3/10/15 $31.35 7/7/15 $28.78 8%

UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 5/27/15 $85.70 7/7/15 $92.02 7%

IndustrialMetalsETF UBM 3/25/15 $15.24 7/7/15 $13.56 11% UltraShortChinaETF(half) FXP 3/10/15 $36.45 7/8/15 $41.93 15%

UltraShortOilETF(half)SCO 7/21/15 $76.19 7/23/15 $82.14 8%

UltraShortBrazilETF(half)

BZQ 7/21/15 $91.39 7/23/15 $102.36 12% UltraShortBrazilETF(secondhalf)

BZQ 7/21/15 $91.39 7/24/15 $109.60 20% UltraShortOilETF(secondhalf)

SCO 7/21/15 $76.19 7/27/15 $87.36 15%

LinkedIn(SHORT)LNKD 6/17/15 $215.45 8/4/15 $194.96 10%

AustraliaETF(SHORT)EWA 1/6/15 $21.97 8/11/15 $19.85 11%

UltraShortEmergingMktsETF

EEV 1/20/15 $19.48 8/11/15 $21.56 11%

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BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

UltraShortChinaETF FXP 3/10/15 $36.458/19/15 $41.59 14%

ChinaRealEstateETF(SHORT) TAO 6/11/13 $20.11 8/24/15 $17.21 14% SouthKoreaETF(SHORT) EWY 8/18/15 $48.17

8/24/15 $43.82 10%

IndiaETF(SHORT) INP 8/18/15 $70.188/24/15 $59.38 18%

Santander(SHORT) SAN 8/13/15 $6.638/24/15 $5.99 10%

SpainETF(SHORT) EWP 8/13/15 $34.088/24/15 $31.38 8%

AustralianDollarETF(SHORT)

FXA 5/27/15 $77.368/26/15 $70.99 8%

UltraShortSilverETFZSL 7/29/15 $120.84

8/26/15 $132.02 9%

UltraLongS&P500 SSO 9/2/15 $56.129/9/15 $59.37 6%

UltraLongRussell200 UWM 9/2/15$79.20 9/9/15 $83.75 6%

CanadaDollarETF(SHORT)

FXC 5/27/15 $79.819/23/15 $74.47 7%

Canon(SHORT) CAJ 7/31/13 $30.849/23/15 $29.12 6%

UltraShortSemiconductors

SSG9/18/15

$54.00 9/24/15 $60.2011%

UltraShortBrazilETFBZQ 9/22/15 $172.16

9/24/15 $199.00 16%

DeutscheBank(SHORT)DB

10/28/15$30.31 11/12/15 $26.17 14%

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BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Santander(SHORT)SAN

10/28/15$5.70 11/27/15 $5.36 6%

UltraShortGoldETFGLL 7/29/15 $112.00

11/27/15 $117.38 5%

UltraShortOilETF SCO 11/12/15 $95.3512/2/15 $108.18

13%

UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 11/12/15 $66.3212/2/15 $72.46

9%

BancoDeChile(Short)

BCH 8/18/15 $61.8912/8/15 $57.68 7%

RussiaETF(SHORT)RSX 12/2/15 $16.35

12/8/15 $15.32 6% UltraShortEmergingMarketsETF EEV 11/12/15 $22.14

12/8/15 $23.767%

SpainETF(SHORT)EWP

9/30/15$29.66 1/14/16 $27.64 7%

UltraShortEmergingMarketsETF

EEV12/17/15

$23.84 1/14/16 $25.316%

SingaporeETF(SHORT)EWS 9/22/15 $10.31

1/7/16 $9.57 7%

MexicoETF(SHORT) EWW 12/23/15 $51.151/7/16 $46.66 9%

FranceETF(SHORT)EWQ

9/30/15$24.07 1/11/16 $22.64 6%

Nvidia NVDA 6/26/13$14.14

1/13/16 $30.04119%

Auto-Zone AZO 9/25/13$422.73

1/13/16 $716.2169%

Intel INTC 12/20/13$25.14

1/13/16 $32.4036%

Target TGT 5/28/14$55.34

1/13/16 $72.6838%

24



BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Tesla(SHORT) TSLA 2/25/15 $203.761/14/16 $196.41 4%

UltraShortFinancialsSKF

9/18/15$52.39 1/14/16 $55.20

5%

EuropeanFinancials(SHORT)

EUFN1/6/16

$19.36 1/15/16 $18.02 7% UltraShortS&P500 SDS 9/18/15 $22.33

1/15/16$23.58 6%

MalaysiaETF(SHORT)EWM 9/22/15 $7.50

1/15/16 $7.16 5%

Kraft KHC 9/24/14 $56.811/15/16 $68.79

27%

McDonalds MCD 10/30/14 $92.871/15/16 $115.25

29%

Santander(SHORT)SAN

1/6/16$4.52 1/19/16 $4.19 7%

RetailETF(SHORT)XRT

1/13/16 $40.66 1/20/16 $38.01 7%

Coke KO 8/28/13$36.80

1/22/16 $41.8121%

GeneralElectric GE 2/5/14$24.57

1/22/16 $27.9120%

EliLilly LLY 12/3/14 $71.131/22/16 $83.09

20%

UniversalCorporation UVV3/5/15

$48.051/22/16 $52.23

12%

Pfizer PFE 7/30/14 $29.262/1/16 $30.16

8%

Microsoft MSFT 12/3/14 $48.082/1/16 $54.70

16%

25



BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

Netflix(SHORT) NFLX 1/27/16 $91.152/8/16 $81.55 11%

ItalyETF(SHORT)(half)

EWI1/27/16 $12.05 2/9/16

$10.88 10% BarclaysPLC(SHORT)(half) BCS 1/27/16 $10.37

2/9/16$9.09 12%

DeutscheBank(SHORT)(half) DB 2/3/16 $16.65

2/9/16$14.95 10%

ItalyETF(SHORT)(otherhalf)

EWI1/27/16 $12.05 2/11/16

$10.71 11% BarclaysPLC(SHORT)(otherhalf) BCS 1/27/16 $10.37

2/11/16$8.64 17%

GoldMinersETF GDX5/13/15 $17.49 3/23/16 $19.03

9%

GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ1/27/16 $19.12 3/23/16 $26.78

40%

SilverStandardResources SSRI

4/20/16 $8.08 4/28/16 $9.0812%

DRDGOLD DRD4/20/16 $4.34 4/28/16 $4.97

15%

OilETF OIL3/17/16 $5.64 4/29/16 $6.17

9%

SugarETN SGG 4/27/16$35.79 5/12/16 $38.66

8%

DBCommoditiesETN DBC 3/17/16 $13.59 5/19/16 $14.46 6%

WheatETF WEAT 4/27/16 $9.03 6/7/16 $9.44 5%

AgricultureETN RJA 4/27/16 $6.49 6/7/16 $6.87 6%

DeutscheBank(SHORT) DB 2/3/16 $16.65 6/9/16 $15.68 6%

UltraShortOilETF SCO 5/26/16 $79.52 6/14/16 $83.50 5%

26



BUY PRICE

SELL DATE

SELL PRICE

GAIN/

LOSS

NovaGold NG 4/20/16 $5.95 6/24/16 $6.51 9% GoldMinersETF GDX 6/8/16 $26.36 6/24/16 $26.86 2%

GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ 6/8/16 $40.21 6/24/16 $42.22 5% DRDGOLD DRD 6/8/16 $5.12 6/24/16 $5.47 7% SilverStandardResources SSRI 6/8/16 $11.09 6/24/16 $12.26

11%

Santander(SHORT) SAN 2/3/16 $3.86 6/27/16 $3.61 6% GermanyETF(SHORT) EWG 3/10/16 $24.25 6/27/16 $22.86 6% USNaturalGasFund UNG 6/8/16 $7.44 6/27/16 $8.11 9%

the end of centralizationphoenixcapitalmarketing.com/pwa161.pdfjune 29 2016 short-term issues...

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