The Emerging Market for Rapidly Solidified Materials

Thomas Abraham

Although rapidly solidified (RS) ma­terials have been produced for the last two decades and several varieties are commercially available, little is widely known about this emerging technology's economic implications.

The first major commercial uses of rapid solidification technology were iron-base alloys and superalloys in the late 1960s. In the 1980s, amorphous met­als and a few aluminum alloys became available in commercial quantities. The latest in the series of commercialized RS materials are Fe-Nd-B magnets. Current major areas of application for RS ma­terials include electrical power, high­speed steel tool inserts, aircraft engines and structural components, and perma­nent magnets.

In the study "Rapidly Solidified Mate­rials-Processing, New Developments, Applications and Market Opportuni­ties," Business Communications Com­pany (BCC) projects a market growth rate of 17% for RS materials, climbing from $132 million in 1988 to $290 million in 1993. For volume, the rate is even higher since the price of RS materials will decrease in the next five years.

Large growth rates are expected for metallic glasses and Fe-N d -B permanent magnets. Moderate-to-high growth rates are expected for aluminum, titanium and magnesium alloys, which are presently being tested in prototypes quantities or used in limited quantities (e.g., alumi­num alloys). Iron-base alloys and super­alloys have matured markets and are expected to grow annually at the rate of 10% and 7%, respectively, although real growth rates in terms of quantities are expected tobeonly3.8% and2%,respec­tively. The market for rapidly solidified ceramics produced by plasma flame technology accompanied by rapid cool­ing is quite small at present, but the report projects a large growth rate in the next five years. Rapidly solidified nio­bium alloys are still in the laboratory, but prototype quantities are likely to be in use by 1993.

In terms of market share for RS ma­terials, iron-base alloys and superalloys had a combined share of 88% in 1988, with metallic glasses being a distant third at7.6%. By 1993,however, metallic glass is expected to experience tremendous growth, and its market share should reach 28%-similar to that of iron-base

6

alloys and superalloys. Fe-Nd-B mag­nets are estimated to reach a market share of about 7% by 1993, with a value of $20 million.

At present, the u.s. has an edge in RS technologies and is likely to continue this lead in the near future. BCC identi­fied 26 U.S. companies that are currently

pursuing the development or produc­tion of RS materials. Most of these com­panies are concentrating on only one material; a few others are interested in two materials. Only Crucible Materials Corporation and Pratt & Whitney are producing more than two RS materials.

For metallic glasses, the only U.S. sup­plier is Allied Metglas Products. Gen­eral Motors' Delco Remy Division is the major supplier of Fe-Nd-B magnets, al­though Ovonic Synthetic Materials and Harrison Dickson claim to have the ca­pability to supply these materials. Rap­idly solidified high-speed steels are supplied by Crucible Specialty Metals and Cytemp Specialty Steels. Ribbon Technology Corporation offers RS stain­less steel fibers.

The major producers of superalloy powders are Homogeneous Metals, Special Metals Corporation and Cameron Powder Systems. Allied and Alcoa supply prototype quantities of RS aluminum alloys, and Pratt & Whitney produces prototype quantities of tita­nium alloy powders. Allied supplies limited developmental quantities of RS

magnesium alloys. Micro Materials Com­pany offers fine oxide ceramic powders produced by plasma RS technology.

Almost from the beginning, the price of many RS materials has been decreas­ing. Metglas ribbons now cost anywhere from $3.50 to $70/lb., depending on the composition and quantity. However, Allied has claimed that it could supply ribbons at prices as low as $1.50/lb. for large quantities. It is generally agreed that the price of Metglas ribbons must fall to $1/lb. to effectively compete with silicon steel in distribution transform­ers. Metglas brazing foils presently range in price from $20 to $5,000/lb., depend­ing on type and quantity. The prices for iron-base alloys and superalloys are stabilized at present and are likely to increase, depending on inflation. An average price estimate for RS high-speed steel is $6/lb.; superalloys range from $28-35. GM sells Nd-Fe-B isotropic magnet powder for $25-30/lb.

The price of Nd-Fe-B magnets is likely to drop in the next few years as these materials demonstrate tremendous growth. As for ceramics, Micro Materi­als Technology Company supplies plasma RS oxide ceramic powders at $30-40/lb. for quantities of 10-100 pounds; after installation of a more effi­cient production unit, the company hopes to reduce the price to $l-lO/lb., plus the cost of the raw powders.

There is little vertical integration in the RS material industry. Except for Alcoa, all producers buy their raw ma­terials from outside sources, primarily because the quantities produced are quite low compared to the large-quantity pro­duction of basic metal alloys.

Despite the fact that our knowledge and the commercial value ($500 million) of RS materials will increase dramati­cally by mid-1990s, the field is only in its infancy. Through the first decade of the 21st century, the RS field will enter its growth period. As such, we are currently pouring the foundation of what should be one of the dominant materials tech­nologies of the next century.

Thomas Abraham is an industry analyst with Business Communications Co., in Norwalk, Connecticut.

If you want more information on this subject, please circle reader service card number 14.

JOM • September 1990