THE ELECTRIC CAR IN 2030

Electric Vehicle Demo Day

Mallory Park

Wednesday 21st October 2015

Dr Rupert Gammon

Predictions for Future Vehicles• My predictions on where vehicle power will be in the future

– Easier to tell you where I think we will be (or will need to be) in 2050 than 2030 • Direction of travel is clear, speed of travel is uncertain

– I will cheat• Concentrate on 2050 and suggest that we will be some way along the path to that

scenario by 2030• But how far is dependant upon numerous uncertainties

– Diamond of transitional process

Today 20502030

80%

reduction in GHG

emissions

Source: DOE, 2013

Energy for Vehicles in 2030• What “source” of energy will we be using to power

vehicles in 2030?– Fossil fuels?: Yes, but...

• The Peak Oil issue has not gone away (despite the temporary distraction of shale gas, tar sands, unsustainably low oil price, etc)

• Neither has the climate change (or health) issue

– Biofuels?: Yes, up to a point, but...

* Correcting a fundamental error in greenhouse gas accounting related to bioenergy, Haberl et al, 2012

• Dubious carbon intensity credentials *• Local emissions (noise, particulates, CO2, NOx)

• Limited supply (competes with food production)

– Synthetic fuels (inc. air-fuel synthesis)?• Most suitable for aviation (and heavy surface transport)• Carbon as a hydrogen carrier? – sounds familiar!• Borrows CO2, does not reduce it

• Perpetuates ICEs

– Electricity?: Yes ... (see next slide)– Hydrogen?: Yes ... (see next slide)

The Future is Electric• Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs)

– Short range– Light payloads– Slow recharging

• Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs)– Long range– Heavy payloads– Quick refuelling– Fuelled by hydrogen

• Smart grids also depend on these technologies

Electric vehicles provide growing

amount of responsive

demand

Responsive demand allows the grid to decarbonise

As the grid decarbonises, it

lowers the carbon-intensity

of electric transport

– BEVs enable time-shifting of electrical demand by hours and days– FCEVs allow time-shifting days and longer when H2 produced by electrolysis

The End of the I.C.E. Age

• The Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) will have begun to go into decline– Dirty– Noisy– Unhealthy– Too many moving parts

• Opportunity to make a step change to better technology

Source: Shell, 2010

• Modal shift is marginally effective– Must

change ‘fuel’

Human Factors• What affects our choice of

power source for vehicles?– Cost

• Capital• Operational

– Convenience• Infrastructure• Quality of service• ‘Ownership’ models are changing...

– Society’s perception• Familiarity / habit (fear of change)• Peer influence

– Health and wellbeing– Politics

BMW

Access

One way, per-mile hire

Autonomous

vehicles

End-to-end multi-modal integration

EV Research at DMU

• DIGITS• My Electric Avenue• REEMS

• Upcoming projects:– Demountable FC Range

Extender– EVs for the developing world

Photo: EP Tender 2015

Photo: Londolozi 2014

DMU Interdisciplinary Group in Intelligent Transport Systems (DIGITS)• Computational intelligence• Embedded systems and ECU design• Intelligent integrated traffic and air quality control• Pavement and rail track materials• Airport and harbour modelling and evaluation• GIS and data mining• Telematics• Projects include:

– Traffic, Health and the Environment - Intelligent Solutions Sustaining Urban Economies (THE ISSUE)

– Integrated Traffic Management and Air Quality Control Using Space Services (iTRAQ)

– Range Extended EV Management System (REEMS)

– De Montfort University is studying:• Impact on users• Attitude of users

My Electric Avenue Project

• Field trials of Esprit charge management system– Prevents overload of network

with high numbers of EVs charging simultaneously

– Technical trials• 10 clusters across UK

– 10 participants per cluster– Each cluster on one substation

feeder– Domestic and commercial

– Social trials• 100 individual BEV owners across

UK

Funded by Ofgem, Low Carbon Networks Fund

REEMS Project• Range Extension Engine Management

System for electric vehicles (REEMS)

REEMS Control strategy concept

Strategy

Energy of fuel used[MJ]

Electric energy used[MJ]

Corrections due to final charge[MJ]

Total used energy[MJ]

Comparison to REEMS

REEMS 361.16 32 -9.17 383.99

CDCS 416.72 35.55 0 452.27 +15.1%

Thermostat 431.94 8.27 -33.92 406.29 +5.49%

in collaboration with Cenex

CDCS method

‘Thermostat’ control method

REEMS control

Future Prospects• 100 years in the making

– “All the forces in the world are not so powerful as an idea whose time has come.” Victor Hugo, 1802

• A great driving experience– Powerful acceleration (high torque at low revs)– Smooth, quiet, responsive– No gears– Simple to drive and fun– Less road rage?

1st car to go over 100 km/h (68 mph):Camille Jénatzy’s “La Jamais Contente”, 29th April 1899

• A whole new sector on the scale of the conventional motor industry– New opportunities for

• Revolutionary vehicle design• Infrastructure development• Innovative service options and new business models

• You’ll wonder why we spent the last century driving fossil cars

3 EVs are still parked on the moon!!!

Induction charging

Vehicle to grid