the effect of the crisis on consumption györgy molnár and zsuzsa kapitány institute of economics...
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The effect of the crisis on consumption
György Molnár and Zsuzsa Kapitány Institute of Economics
Economics of Crisis, Education and LabourSEBA – IE CASS – IEHAS, Chinese - Hungarian International Conference
30th June -1st July 2011, Budapest
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Source: HCSO: National Accounts http://portal.ksh.hu/pls/ksh/docs/hun/xstadat/xstadat_eves/i_qpt007.html Consumption: http://portal.ksh.hu/pls/ksh/docs/hun/xstadat/xstadat_eves/i_zhc004.html
Real net income and consumption of households, on the basis of the national accounts
2000=100
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Net quarterly change of bank loan volumes of households, adjusted for exchange rate changes, seasonally adjusted
Source: MNB (The Central Bank of Hungary): http://www.mnb.hu/Kiadvanyok/mnbhu_stabil/mnbhu_stab_jel_201004
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Share of defaulted retail loans (%)
Source: PSZÁF (Hungarian Financial Supervisory Authority): The HFSA’s Second Risk Report in 2010,http://www.pszaf.hu/data/cms2217968/riskreport_2010H1.pdf
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Micro data
Waves of Household Budget Survey of the Central Statistical Office, 2007-2009
• No panel data• Monthly household records + annual interviews in early
next year• Monthly household records by minimum 1500 persons • Monthly households records sample distortion, top of
the income scale is truncated• Relatively large datasets:
– 2007: 7388 households, 19183 persons– 2008: 7274 households, 18946 persons– 2009: 7718 households, 19632 persons
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Methodological remarks
• Individual equalised income (with e = 0.73 elasticity coefficient) rather than per capita income Using OECD1 consumption units no significant difference
• Expenditures = consumption + new construction, renovation, purchase of real estate
• Narrowed expenditures = consumption + installments related ot housing or real estate loans
• Consumption = current consumption + durable goods • Three types of deflation:
– using annual consumer price indices uniformly– using annual price indices by product groups – using monthly price indices
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Consumption of purchased goods monthly data on prices of Jan 2007, deflated
by products
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* Household contains at least one child under 14
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% % % %
Role of installments for people having housing loan – bottom and
top deciles
Share of housing loan repayment in expenditures (%)Share of persons having housing loan (%)
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Distribution of equalised consumption by product groups in
2007, total population
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Distribution of equalised
consumption by product groups in 2007, bottom and
top income deciles
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Changes of distribution of
consumption on current prices
Food
Household energy
Housing maintenance
Communication
Durables
Other
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Changes of distribution of consumption,
deflated by product groups
Food
Household energy
Housing maintenance
Communication
Durables
Other
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Inequalities
Income Expend. Consumption Income Expend. Consumption
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Income Consumption
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Consumption inequalities by regions