the effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in europe

ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013

The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in

EuropeCamilla Geels1 and Carsten Ambelas Skjøth 2

1Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Denmark.2 National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit, University of

Worcester, UK.

With contributions from Ole Hertel, Jesper H. Christensen, Steen Gyldenkærne, Thomas Ellermann,

Helle Vibeke Andersen, Jørgen BrandtDepartment of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Denmark.

ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013

Link between the trends in human population and NH3 use throughout the twentieth century:

From: How a century of ammonia synthesis changed the worldErisman et al., Nature Geoscience 1, 636 - 639 (2008).

The Haber-Bosch process “the most important invention of the 20th century” made it possible to produce ammonia (NH3) from hydrogen and nitrogen

Converts nitrogen into a bioavailable form!


NH3 mission changes globally and in Europe:

European Environment Agency (EEA).


BUT: NH3 emissions from agricultural production are very sensitive to climatic drivers (temperature, water availability).

A central question in the ECLAIRE project is:“Will climate warming increase NH3 emissions and to what extend will this hinder NH3 mitigation efforts?”

A different approach is needed.

Current regional CTM studies of NH3:

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1.6

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Seasonal factor for snap 10 (source: EURODELTA)

Annual emission inventoriesBased on national emissions factors.

Standard temporal profiles.


Was originally developed for Denmark[1,2] – now extended to part of Europe[3].

Based on:

1.) 16 different functions describing the temporal variation in NH3 emissions from various activities.

2.) information on number and type of animals, type of crop, sale of manure/fertilizer etc. So this is required on as high spatial resolution as possible.

The Danish Dynamic NH3 emission model

Function Description

Fkt 1 Animal houses with forced ventilation

Fkt 2 Open animal houses (non-forced ventilation)

Fkt 3 Manure storages

Fkt 4 Winter crops (no emission simulated in this study)

Fkt 5 Spring crops (no emission simulated in this study)

Fkt 6 Late spring crops (no emission simulated in this study)

Fkt 7 Grass

Fkt 8 Spring application of manure on bare soil

Fkt 9 Application of manure on crops

Fkt 10 Summer application of manure

Fkt 11 Autumn application of manure

Fkt 12 Spring application of fertilizer (90% of all fertilizer)

Fkt 13 Summer application of fertilizer (10% of all fertilizer)

Fkt 14 Emission related to grassing cattle

Fkt 15 Emissions related to ammonia treated straw

Fkt 16 Emissions related to personal vehicles with catalytic converters

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[1] Skjøth et al,(2004) Implementing a dynamical ammonia emission parameterization in the large-scale air pollution model ACDEP109, D06306, doi:10.1029/2003JD003895.[2] Gyldenkærne et al (2005) A dynamical ammonia emission parameterization for use in air pollution models, JGR, 110, D07108, doi:10.1029/2004JD005459.[3] Skjøth et al (2011). Spatial and temporal variations in ammonia emissions - a freely accessible model code for Europe: Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 5221-5236.


Backbone of the dynamic ammonia model [1]

• Point sources: emission from stables and manure storages depends on outdoor/indoor temperature and ventilation[2]

– Pigs/chicken requires a high minimum temperature – Cattle manages relatively low temperaturesThe farmers use heating/ventilation to keep the animals happy …

• Area sources: emissions from agricultural fields depends on e.g. crop growth/application of manure described by Gauss functions[2] – also a function of T.

• Local temperature provided by meteorological data used in the CTM model. • Usually scaled to official annual emissions, so only intra-annual

(seasonal/diurnal) emission variation used….

8 9.0TE

[1] Skjøth et al,(2004) Implementing a dynamical ammonia emission parameterization in the large-scale air pollution model ACDEP109, D06306, doi:10.1029/2003JD003895.[2] Gyldenkærne et al (2005) A dynamical ammonia emission parameterization for use in air pollution models, JGR, 110, D07108, doi:10.1029/2004JD005459.


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Buildings Crops Grazing Other Art. Fertilizer Manure

Example from Denmark – change in seasonal profile due to development in agricultural sector (1985-2003) [4]

Main activities 1985[kTon N]

1990[kTon N]

1995[kTon N]

2000[kTon N]

2003[kTon N]

Pig houses 19.787 18.674 17.979 18.578 18.578

Cattle barns 10.926 10.614 9.104 9.598 9.598

Storage 13.936 12.298 11.125 10.176 9.136

Crops 13.174 13.010 11.125 11453 11.476

Manure early spring 6.722 6.042 6.120 5.941 4.330

Manure in crops 5.491 6.680 11.296 14.183 14.129

Manure summer 8.106 7.396 3.207 1.834 512

Manure autumn 6.232 4.826 1.806 1.114 640

Manure late autumn 13.256 10.306 4.156 1.429 640

Mineral fertilizer 7.870 8.662 7.606 5.582 4.437

Grassing animals 2.591 2.413 2.500 2.370 2.257

Ammonia treatment 6.551 10.210 6.647 2.471 661

Traffic 0.053 0.106 0.993 1.828 1.989

Total 114.695 111.236 94.196 86.556 80.391

[4] Skjøth et al (2008), JAWMA, Footprints on ammonia concentrations from Environmental regulations, JAWMA, 58: 1158-1165.

Change in Danish regulation

Fig 1. Fig 2. Fig 3.


Application of the Danish Ammonia Modelling System: DAMOS[5,6,7] -regional to local scales.

150 km x 150 km

50 km x 50 km

~ 17 km x 17 km

~ 6 km x 6 km

400 m x 400 m

DEHM[6]

OML-DEP[7]

[5] Geels et al, (2012) Improved modelling of atmospheric ammonia over Denmark using the coupled modelling system DAMOS: Biogeosciences, 9, 2625-2647.[6] Brandt et al (2012). An integrated model study for Europe and North America using the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model with focus on intercontinental transport of air pollution: Atmos. Environ., Atmos. Environ., 53, 156-176. [7] Sommer et al (2009) Validation of model calculation of ammonia deposition in the neighbourhood of a poultry farm using measured NH3 concentrations and N deposition: Atmos. Environ., 43, 915-920.

Covered by existing emission model


Weekly NH3 concentration at Lindet.[5]

2005 200920072006 2008

•Strong seasonal cycle captured by both DAMOS and DEHM[5]

•Overestimating some spring peaks[5]

•Week-to-week variability also captured[5]

•DAMOS closer to measured level[5]

DAMOS:Corr=0.72Bias=0.11

DEHMCorr=0.67Bias=0.64

[5] Geels et al, (2012) Improved modelling of atmospheric ammonia over Denmark using the coupled modelling system DAMOS: Biogeosciences, 9, 2625-2647.


The new sensitivity study carried out in ECLAIRE (WP6):

Analysing the effect of temperature variations:-From location to location-Due to climate change

The dynamic NH3 emissions model forced with hourly bias corrected climate data (based on a data fusion of ENSEMBLES climate data and reanalyses meteorology).

New paper in ACP:The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe

by Skjøth and Geels

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 117–128, 2013

ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013

Test case:A storage related to a pig stable facility with 1000 animals - with the same production methods as in Denmark.

Placed throughout the domain – so forced with different temperatures.


Area DK

Emission [kg NH3/year] 506

Difference [%] 5

Area UK


Difference [%] 21

Area FR


Difference [%] 20

Area GE


Difference [%] -22

Area GE


Difference [%] 13

Area IT


Difference [%] 30

Spatial variations in NH3 emission (standard Danish storage moved to other locations).

Note the diff. within GE

2007

Relative to mean 2006-2010 at Tange in Dk.

mountainous regions


Annual emission from storage in a pig production facility with 1000 animals using average Danish production methods and exposed to different European climatic conditions in the

years 2007 and 2010 – important for emission ceilings …


The climate ”penalty” on NH3 emissions(standard Danish storage moved to other locations).

2087 relative to 2007 2087 relative to 2010


Conclusions and outlook (1):• Today – often one national emission factor is used (for several year).

This[6] study shows: • Emissions can vary with 20% by changing geographical location within a country due to overall variations

in climate. Largest uncertainties are seen for large countries like UK, Germany and France.

• Warmer years give higher NH3 emissions than colder years. Annual variations in overall climate can at specific locations cause uncertainties in the range of 20%.

• Climate change will in general increase the emissions with 0-40%, in central to northern Europe – so yes the increase in emissions might hinder mitigations effects….

• The “climate penalty” has political implications for international regulation both now and in the future – how should we define and evaluate emissions ceilings and should “warmer” countries be allowed to emit more …?

[6]The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe Skjøth and Geels (2013)

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 117–128.


Possible way to include this in models: include dynamical calculations of the ammonia emissions.

The dynamic NH3 model will be part of a proposed architecture for handling the climate-dependence of NH3 fluxes in models.

On-going work in the ECLAIRE project.

Described in the paper: Towards a climate-dependent paradigm of ammonia emission

and deposition,By Sutton et al.,

Phil. Trans. Royal Society B vol. 368 no. 1621, 2013.

Conclusions and outlook (2):


Thank you for your attention!- and contact us if you would like to get the code.

Acknowledgements:ECLAIRE (FP7), ECOCLIM (Dan. Res. Council) and VKR-foundation

Contacts: Carsten Ambelas Skjøth ([email protected]) & Camilla Geels ([email protected])

the effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in europe

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