the dynamics of climate change implications for · pdf fileenergy demand will rise primarily...

The Dynamics of Climate Change: Resulting Implications for Research

and Development

Jana C. Lewerenz

„The Dynamics of climate change: resulting implications for research and developement“

Content

BEHIND THE HEADLINES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

1. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Reports I&III

2. The necessity of concerted international action to combat climate change

3. Emission scenarios4. Potentials and (commercial) viability of energy

carriers5. Research strategies


IPCC Assessment Report No. 4 Working Group I (Phys. Sci. Basis Clim. Change) ‏


IPCC AR4 WG I ContinuedBACKGROUND TO ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION IN THE ATMOSPHERE

95% of all emissions caused by man, 5% natural processes


Anthropogenic CO2 Sources

Electricity generation 10.5 Gt/yr.Cement production 0.9 Gt/yr.Refineries 0.8 Gt/yr.Petrochemical industry 0.4 Gt/yr.Iron and steel industry 0.6 Gt/yr.

IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS)‏

Total CO2 emissions (2000) 23.5 GtCO2 yr-1

(6 GtC yr-1)


Radiative forcing of climate between 1750 and 2005

Human activities cause significant changes in long-lived gases


Climate Sensitivity

• A measure of the climate system’s response to a sustained radiative forcing equivalent to doubling pre-industrial CO2 - not a projection for the 21st Century.

AR4 (assessment report Nr.4)

• Equilibrium climate sensitivity range: 1.5 to 4.5°C

• likely range: 2.0 to 4.5°C• very unlikely <1.5°C• best estimate about 3°C2°C increase in global mean temp. is a fender-bender anything above a total loss


Tipping Points

Climate-carbon cycle coupling: The scale of these feedback-mechanisms is yet unclear.

Non-linear effects


IPCC Working Group III(deceleration of climate change) ‏

CONTROLLING CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change is happeningClimate change is man-madeCertain effects of climate change are unavoidable


Key Messages

Human activities (combustion of fossil fuels and land-use) have and are continuing to perturb the carbon cycle – increasing the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide Probable temperature rise by the end of the century will be between 1.8 and 4°CRegional increases in heat wavesIncreased intensity of tropical stormsWater stress

FloodsWater shortageDesertificationSea-level riseOcean acidification

Development policy is a key element and nexus to climate change mitigation


Primary Energy demand by region: Baseline Scenario

By 2050 developing countries will account for 55% of global energy demand

IEA World Energy Outlook 2005


The Importance of Technology Transfer(towards developing economies) ‏

Energy demand will rise primarily in developing countries.Two thirds of total increase of energy relevant GHG emissions from fossil fuels will stem from developing countries.Developing countries will supersede the OECD countries as leading emitters of GHGs within the next decade.

Suggestions by the IPCC

Knowledge Transfer: knowledge as a public good.Avert capital “lock-in” effect.“Environmental leapfrogging”. Capacity-building.Adequate technologies.To reduce vulnerability.


Policy Implications

• Important changes for the future require urgent action now

Capital stock turnover„Lock-in“ effectHigh emissions pathways

Long term price and policy signals are requiredThe value of avoiding emissions has to be recognized


Status Quo of Technology Transfer

industrialized countries

developing countriesEITs

low transaction costsvertical technology transfer

top-down approach

PPPs

development aid

will become greatest GHG emitter

Largest emittants

accountabilityeconomic growth and

development

Governance

recipient country characteristics

user

awareness

market existencepublic research results go to private companies and follow private laws of technology transfer


Drivers of (Technological) Development

TechnologyAttitudes and preferencesEconomic growthGlobalization and market opennessGovernance (private-public partnerships)‏Global security issues


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000

A1F

1

A2

A1B A1T

B1

B2

F-GasesN2OCH4CO2

Gt

CO

2eq

/yr.

With current climate change reduction policies and sustainable development practices GHG emissions

will continue to grow over the next few decades

A1: fast economic growthA1FI: "fossil intensive“A1T: “non-fossil energy

sources“A1B: "Balance", equal mix

of energy sourcesA2: heterogeneous/

divergingB1: global service and

information societyB2: regionalization


Global Mean Temperature development based on emission scenarios

• Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries


Global Sustainable Development

Stabilization of atmospheric CO2

concentration at 450 ppm (now at 430 ppm)‏

Reduction of energy-related CO2 emissions: 60-80 % until 2050 (based on 1990)‏Per capita CO2 emission rights of approx. 1 t CO2/a in 2050

0 5 10 15

Africa

China

Germany

OECD

World

Gt CO2/ per capita per year


Supply of Renewable Energy Carriers in Comparison to Global Energy Demand (p.a.) ‏


Possible Scenario for the Development of Renewable Energy Carriers


Key Technologies To Reduce Emissions

Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and aircodition; improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances

Efficiency; fuel switching; renewable (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; nuclear power; early applications of CO2 capture and storage

Energy Supply

Transport More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning

Buildings

Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available


High tech-Strategy

Organic PV: Investment volume of participating companies: 300 mio. Euros for R&D in addition the ministry of education and research adds another 60 mio. Euros.The 3% budget goal for R&D a budget expansion of 6.5 billion Euros for R&D is scheduled forthis legislative period

Support of key research industries: renewable energy carriers

National Strategy for innovation policy that combines resources of science and economyDesigning roadmap processes with industry and scienceCooperations and joint projects are more heavily funded than everbeforeGoals: short innovation cycles (fast conversion of research findings into products, services and methods/procedures) ‏New funding instruments


Implications for Research: an Overview of Third Gen. Devices

Exploiting photon excess energy: multiple level systems (tandem) hot carrier injectionPlastic/organic solar cellsNanotechnology cells (DSSC, excitonic cells, novel systems Qws, QDs)‏

System-overlapCost-effectiveMass productionFuture: 4th gen. organic solar cells


Global Research Spending for Renewable Energy in Comparison to the Mean Annual Oil Price

Source: IEA, US DOE u.a.

100US$/barrel

80

60

40

?


In Summary

“The great transformation“ (Schellnhuber) ‏Conversion of the entire industrialmetabolism“Carbon justice“Emissions per capita in the industrialized countries will have to be scaled down to the level currently seen in AfricaAn effort equivalent to the size of the “Apollo Program“ for R&D is needed


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