the draw of the coast
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The Draw of the Coast. Professor Andrew Beer Centre for Housing, Urban and Regional Planning University of Adelaide. Introduction. Are we drawn to the coast? What are the demand factors? What are the supply factors? Where to next?. The Draw of the Coast. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Draw of the Coast
Professor Andrew BeerCentre for Housing, Urban and Regional
PlanningUniversity of Adelaide
Introduction
• Are we drawn to the coast?• What are the demand factors?• What are the supply factors?• Where to next?
The Draw of the Coast
• The National Seachange Taskforce estimates that – 86% of Australians live under 50km from the coast– Growth in coastal areas consistently higher than the
national average• Especially WA, Queensland and NSW
– Australia’s population in 2010 - 22 m• Capital cities 14 m• Non-metro Australia 8 m• Non-metro – coast 6.9 m
The Draw of the Coast
The Draw of the Coast
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Cairns/Cairns Northern Beaches
Mount IsaMackay
Townsville-Thuringowa
Rockhampton
BundabergHervey Bay
Gladstone
MaryboroughGympie
Nambour
WarwickBallina
LismoreGrafton Coffs Harbour
SawtellArmidaleTamworth
Port Macquarie
Forster-TuncurryDubboMuswellbrook
Raymond Terrace
Maitland
Kurri Kurri-Weston
Broken Hill
KiamaNowra-Bomaderry
GoulburnGriffith
Wagga Wagga
Singleton
LauncestonBurnie-Somerset
Mount Gambier
Murray Bridge
Devonport
Horsham
WarrnamboolColacBallarat
BairnsdaleSale
Traralgon
Moe-Yallourn
Ocean Grove-Barwon Heads
Bacchus MarshBendigo
Shepparton-Mooroopna
Wangaratta
Albury-Wodonga (Albury Part)
Echuca-Moama (Echuca Part)
Mildura
Port PiriePort Augusta
Whyalla
Port Lincoln
Kalgoorlie-Boulder
Albany
BusseltonBunburyMandurah
Geraldton
KarrathaPort Hedland
Broome
Alice Springs
Toowoomba
Maitland
Cessnock-Bellbird
Orange
BathurstLithgow
Albury-Wodonga (Wodonga Part)
Morwell
Regional Cities in Australia
0 1,000 Kilometres
0 500 Miles
Demand Factors Behind the Draw of the Coast
• Demographic processes – Increased life expectancy
• Increased period post retirement– Mobile population with limited commitment to
one place or community • Increased willingness to migrate in older age
– Lesser reliance on family in old age
– The Baby Boom Generation • Generation X
Demand Factors Behind the Draw of the Coast
Generation Label
Years of Birth Age Persons %
The Depression Generation Before 1931 75 plus 1,270,944 6.4 The Austerity Generation 1931-1948 55 to 74 2,827,764 14.2 The Baby Boomers 1949-1965 54 to 41 4,689,601 23.6 Generation X 1966- 1981 40 to 25 4,425,493 22.3 Generation Y 1981-1996 24 to 39 4,072,212 20.5 Generation I 1996 - 0 to 10 2,569,266 12.9 Total 19,855,280 100
Demand Factors Behind the Draw of the Coast
• Increased wealth in older age – A generation and generations of home owners
• House prices outstripping inflation since 1970 • Concentration of immigrant arrivals in the major
capitals – A more productive labour force with greater
savings in older age • In some instances, access to redundancy payments
Demand Factors Behind the Draw of the Coast
• The working aged– Salt notes that while coastal growth started with
older generations, now taken up by those of economically active age• Impact of restructure of the economy from goods to
services – Partly servicing growth initiated by older population
• Fly In/Fly Out, Drive In/Drive Out • Refugees from high capital city house prices • Perceived life style advantages
Demand Factors Behind the Draw of the Coast
• Impact of second home ownership – Evidence that second home ownership
predisposes households to a longer term move • 30% of 55-64 year olds own a second property
Supply Factors Behind the Draw of the Coast
• Improvements in infrastructure provision – Especially transport
• Road infrastructure (eg Pacific Highway; Southern Expressway)
• Rail infrastructure (eg rail from Brisbane to Robina)• Air services – Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Hervey Bay
– Telecommunications enhancements• Some rise in telecommuting
– The Barefoot Executives • Potential impact of the NBN
Supply Factors Behind the Draw of the Coast
• Land, housing and construction costs– More affordable than capital cities
• More permissive planning regimes in some jurisdictions, especially on the east coast
• Creation of a viable housing market reduces some of the risk of movement
– Lifestyle migration • On-going impact of the ‘population turnaround’ of the
1970s
Where to Next?
• A trend unlikely to end in the foreseeable future – Baby Boom, Gen X, Gen Y
• Older persons cycling through coastal locations– May change with the Productivity Commission’s
reforms • Increased pressure for social infrastructure
– Which in turn will fuel growth • Increased attractiveness with climate change
Where to Next?
• Restricted land supply for further housing and development in some locations – Eg Coffs Harbour, Ballina – Spillover from coastal to near coastal locations
• Eg Lismore
• A positive thing – Greater choice within the Australian urban system – More affordable housing
