the dirty new world (summer 2013 version)
DESCRIPTION
A provocation on what needs to happen next in connected devices and technologiesTRANSCRIPT
It’s a Dirty New WorldBranching out from the digital domain
Patrick Kalaher, Chief Architect
MARCH 2013
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A provocation on what needs to happen next in connected devices and technologies
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The Old Rules
Since the mid-90s, we’ve been living in a clean, relatively simple digital world
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I’m going to argue that this is all abruptly changing
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And what got us here won’t get us where we want to go now
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Four laws we’ve been obeying:
Moore’s Law
Nielson’s Law
Metcalfe’s Law
Godwin’s Law
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Moore’s Law
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Foreshadowing
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Nielsen’s Law
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http://www.js1.ca/
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Metcalfe’s Law
Value of a telecom network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users.
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Metcalfe’s Law
We intuit this whenwe think ofNetwork Effects
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Godwin’s Law
"As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1."
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Godwin’s Law
First we made net culture, then it re-made us.
For Lulz.
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The Onion Reports: 90% Of Waking Hours Spent Staring At Glowing Rectangles
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These laws are still out there, but they aren’t the dominant factors, because we are now headed to...
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The Dirty New World
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What is the Dirty New World?
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A place with new rules and limitations and ways to succeed
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It’s dirty out there
Device design is breaking long-held rules
Mobile networks are glitchy
The IoT (and the II) is messy and complicated, and failure can be expensive
Pervasive computing is starting to offend people
Connected device scenarios are hard work
Emergent behavior has real-world consequences
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Mobile compute isn’t scarce anymore, mobile energy efficiency is
Do you even know the processor speed on your device? Do you even care?
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“Koomey’s Law”
Recent research led by Jonathan Koomey of Stanford University has found that energy efficiency of compu<ng doubles every 18 months, enabling energy constrained devices to become “smarter”.
How?
Con<nually improving baDery technology + custom ASICS, Cores and SOCs on smartphones, tablets and other Internet of Things devices, along with “Strategic Rulebreaking” and differen<ated manufacturing
Impact
There is no standard “Smartphone” or tablet architecture
Lots of Fragmenta<on
Commodity doesn’t cut it
“Nimitz class” Manufacturing Ouroboros Value Chain Playing catch up
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Takeaway: Engineering what’s inside the box is more important than ever
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We mostly have plenty of bandwidth, but the reliability, availability, and throughput of mobile and IoT systems are still unsolved problems
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Dropped calls are here to stay
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(In 2008 = 5.6% reported at least onedropped call per day)
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http://worstphoneever.com/
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Takeaway: Some solvable problems don’t get solved
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Case in point:
Home Energy Management
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The Personal Area Network is not really taking off
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(Wifi in Healthcare: $4.9B, iTunes: $17B)
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Sensors still too expensive and scarce
The utilities’ hearts are really not in it
The cost savings carrot is not there for customers
There’s a limit to how much this can cost
SHN ZBHT-1 Retails for 69.99
“Smart Grid Woes Move to Illinois, ComEd”“All told, ComEd may have to pay back $48 million to its 3.8 million customers (about $12 per customer), and the decision could cost parent company Exelon about $77 million per year in revenue losses, not to mention $85 million in its current rate increase request.” -Reuters, Oct 2010
15% of 5% =0.75%
$940
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“The number of PhDs required to install a WSN rounds off to a non-zero integer”--Mary Murphy-Hoye, Intel
Zigbee Smart Energy 2.0 has been in development since before the iPhone.
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Takeaway: Home Energy Management is a great object lesson for the Industrial Internet
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Pervasive systems
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Pervasive systems creep people out, because they are... pervasive
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Stopthecyborgs.com“Spying is not a business model”
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Not wearingGoogle Glassbut still pretty upset about it
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“Class, please Turn off your pens”
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Takeaway: Customer demand for Industrial Internet and pervasive computing data sharing is not the whole story
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The most interesting connected device scenarios require a lot of business diligence and new skills
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Connected device implementations can’t do everything on day one
Big Data can only drive use cases that a set of connected devices are ready to handle
As systems grow and mature, the data they create and consume changes and becomes richer
frog’s Connected Device Maturity ModelSource: frog
Unconnected
Legacy Connected
Adapt
Connect
Maintain Understand Optimize Innovate
• Report • Analyze • Enterprise
Connect • Cloud
Connect • Aggregate • Understand
Context
• Connect • Identify • Secure • Meter
• Audit • Inspect • Diagnose • Repair • Upgrade
• Safe Share • Longitudinal
Analysis • Simulate • Improve
Processes • Closed Loop
Re-configure
• Dynamically Adapt
• Predict Capabilities
Time
Maturity / Complexity
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Big Data for connected devices doesn’t just happen; it has to evolve
CONNECTED REACTIVE PREDICTIVEConnecting disparate
technologiesContextualizing awareness through sensor networks
Predicting behavior and leveraging awareness
Value
Number of Devices
Metcalfe?
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Lots of things might not be worth it
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Market'Sizing'
Combining'the'ATM,'digital'signage'and'POS'system'management'solu<on'markets'will'
only'sum'to'an'es<mated'half'a'billion'USD'in'2011'
ATM,'4.0'
POS,'321.9'
Digital'Signage,'
2.7'
US#Simple#Systems#Management#So1ware#Market#in#2011#(USD#Millions)#
Upshot:'the'embedded'systems'management'tool'market'place'is'not'compelling'
in'and'of'itself.''It'needs'“revenue'drag”'or'“aPach'revenue”'opportuni<es,'or'for'
the'major'management'tool'providers,'it'provides'a'defense'against'losing'
contracts'on'wider'IT'management'
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Doing M2M right requires fortitude
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Agheera Pulsehttp://vimeo.com/41481380
High Value Items
Embracing disruption of systems and methods
Willingness to be transparent
Much more than Software
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Oops
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“We are extremely sorry for the frustration this has caused our customers and we are doing everything we can to make Maps better.”
-Tim
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Driving every street is a big bet
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But you might just have to do it.
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Takeaway: Some things that seem like good ideas aren’t worth pursuing, and others require novel efforts
(You must disrupt)
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Emergent behaviors have unintended real-world consequences
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You have to “think outside the kitchen”
“Brad the Toaster” is design fiction that outlines a scenario where a self-directed appliance is able to find places and owners that will best use him, and then ship himself there.
The story of Brad the Toaster, by frog’s Simone Rebaudengo:<http://vimeo.com/41363473
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New kinds of stories will be told
“The Brave Little Toaster” is a short story about a renegade pack of energy drink, and havoc it wreaks before the Brave Toaster is able to, um, deal with it.
Source: Cory Doctorow<http://craphound.com/?p=3704>
From: The Brave Little Toaster by Cory Doctorow
One day, Mister Toussaint came home to find an extra 300 euros' worth of groceries on his
doorstep. So he called up Miz Rousseau, the grocer, and said, "Why have you sent me all this
food? My fridge is already full of delicious things. I don't need this stuff and besides, I can't pay
for it."
But Miz Rousseau told him that he had ordered the food. His refrigerator had sent in the list,
and she had the signed order to prove it.
Furious, Mister Toussaint confronted his refrigerator. It was mysteriously empty, even though it
had been full that morning. Or rather, it was *almost* empty: there was a single pouch of energy
drink sitting on a shelf in the back. He'd gotten it from an enthusiastically smiling young
woman on the metro platform the day before. She'd been giving them to everyone.
"Why did you throw away all my food?" he demanded. The refrigerator hummed smugly at him.
"It was spoiled," it said.
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It’s Dirty
It’s dirty out there.
Device design is breaking long-held rules
Mobile networks are glitchy
The IoT is messy and complicated, and failure can be expensive
Pervasive computing is starting to offend people
Connected device scenarios arehard work
Emergent behavior has unintended real-worldconsequences
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But we’re already adapting
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In the Dirty New World, design thinking is more important than ever
Conduct participatory design
Prototype!
Test early and often with customers
Show some demand and viability
Demonstrate ability to scale
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© 2013 frog. All rights reserved.
Thursday, March 21, 13