the digital tsunami - digital entrepreneur leadership...
TRANSCRIPT
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The
Tsunami Digital
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DISRUPTION IS UPON US
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100X THE INNOVATION OF PAST CYCLES
Source: James McQuivey, Digital Disruption
$
10X The Innovators
1/10th The Cost
100X The Power
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MOVING AT LIGHTNING SPEED
Agricultural revolution took
thousands of years
Industrial revolution took hundreds
of years
IT revolution is taking decades
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CREATING UNCERTAINTY
80% of the world's 100 largest
companies will not be on the list
in 30 years
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CAUSING COLLATERAL DAMAGE
Technology is destroying jobs
faster than it is creating them in
advanced economies.
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NON-LINEAR DISRUPTION OF SMS
PARTLY FUELLED BY CENTRAL BANKS
NASDAQ Index Seed Capital
2005
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
400
0
100
200
300
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 2014
NA
SD
AQ
Com
posite
Seed
Rounds $
mill
ion
Source: Mattermark, 2015 https://mattermark.com/exploring-the-connection-between-startup-funding-activity-and-u-s-interest-rates/
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1.0
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USA TRAVEL AGENTS
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/08/30/travel-agents-we-do-exist/
120
2012
40
11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 1999
60
80
100
00
99,730
50,630 Thousa
nds
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NON-LINEAR DISRUPTION OF SMS
CD SHIPMENTS
1000
2015
800
0
600
400
200
10 05 2000 90 1980
$M
illio
n
95 85
Source: McKinsey Analysis, 2014 http://mckinseyonmarketingandsales.com/sites/default/files/pdf/2_21_14_Digital%20disruption.pdf
Now
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MUSIC
Streaming Physical
15
2020
10
0
5
19 18 17 16 2015 14 13 12 11 10 09 2008
$B
illio
n
Source: Credit Suisse/Quartz 2014: http://qz.com/284176/why-music-must-embrace-the-latest-wave-of-industry-disruption/
Now
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BOOKS
E-Books Print
http://www.statista.com/chart/1159/ebook-sales-to-surpass-printed-book-sales-in-2017/
Now
2008
20
0
US
$B
illio
n
16 2017 2015 14 13 12 11 10 09
5
10
15
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Smartphones Digital Cameras
CAMERAS
2009
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Mill
ion
2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Wall Street Journal, 2013 http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324251504578580263719432252
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NON-LINEAR DISRUPTION OF SMS
ADVERTISEMENTS
Newspaper Print Ads Google Adwords
50
2012
40
0
30
20
10
2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
$B
illio
n
Source: McKinsey 2014 http://mckinseyonmarketingandsales.com/sites/default/files/pdf/2_21_14_Digital%20disruption.pdf
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TRADITIONAL MEDIA
UK
0
AU PRC USA NZ EU HK SG SEA
60
10
20
30
40
50 51
40 37
28 28 27
13 12 7
Traditional Media
Disruption Zone
Internet Advertising as % of Total Advertising 2015
Source: APD Analysis, 2015
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NON-LINEAR DISRUPTION OF SMS TELCOS
WhatsApp SMS
Messages s
ent per
day,
bill
ion
30
2015
0
1996
20
10
2010 2005 2000
Source: Portio Research and a16z, 2015
http://www.economist.com/news/business/21647317-messaging-services-are-rapidly-growing-beyond-online-chat-message-medium
Now
Now
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2.0
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HALF THE PLANET WILL BE
CONNECTED BY 2020
4bn Smart
phones
1bn Homes
with WiFi
50bn Connected
devices
100mn Connected
cars
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GIANT MARKETS WILL BE CREATED
$600bn Internet of
Everything
$300bn Sharing
Economy
$200bn The
Cloud
$100bn Big
Data
2x the revenues of Apple, Google,
Microsoft, Samsung and IBM by 2020
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SMARTPHONES
This Will Change Everything
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I do not need a drill
I need a
HOLE in the wall!!
THE SHARING ECONOMY
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“The Internet of Everything will
be five to ten times more impactful
in the next decade than the entire
Internet has been to date.”
- John Chambers, Cisco CEO
THE INTERNET OF EVERYTHING
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CONNECTED DEVICES
PC, smartphone & tablet market IoT
15
2019E
10
0
5
2013
20
25
2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E
Now
Source: BI Intelligence Estimates, 2015 http://www.slideshare.net/bi_intelligence/bii-the-internet-of-everything-2015
$B
illio
n
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3-D PRINTING
Source: Xerox 914 copier brochure, 1962 (http://yourmemento.naa.gov.au/2012/10/theres-no-such-thing-as-the-paperless-office-or-is-there/)
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Everything ahead
is being disrupted
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WINNERS AND LOSERS
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Newspapers Restaurants Warehousing
Capital Markets Supermarkets
Retail Automotive
Construction Banking Telecommunications
Pharmaceuticals Real Estate
Financial Services Information Technology
Marketing & Advertising Hospital & Health Care Management Consulting
Medical Devices Utilities Oil & Energy Health, Wellness & Fitness
Computer Games Venture Capital
Think Tanks International Trade & Development
Public Policy E-Learning
Online Publishing Philanthropy
Internet
Renewables & Environment Growing Shrinking
Size of circle reflects jobs gained / lost
Source: http://blog.linkedin.com/2012/03/08/economic-report/
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PROF. MICHAEL PORTER:
WHAT BUSINESS AM I IN?
Image source: The Simpsons, Fox Broadcasting Company
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NON-LINEAR DISRUPTION OF SMS
IS YOUR MANAGEMENT TEAM READY?
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NON-LINEAR DISRUPTION OF SMS
IS YOUR BOARD READY FOR THE FIGHT?
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<10% of Non-Executive Directors of the top 20 listed companies
in each of Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand
have deep technology experience
Source: Thomson Reuters and APD research 2015
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If we exclude technology and telco boards,
<5% of Non-Executive Directors
have deep technology experience
Source: Thomson Reuters and APD research 2015
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THE DIGITAL TSUNAMI SUMMARISED
1. Happening now, happening fast
2. On multiple fronts
3. More urgent than you think
4. Disruptors are now being disrupted
5. Leadership is a deciding factor
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Will you
DISRUPT or be
DISRUPTED ?