The Demographic Transition Model

Objective: Identify specific societal changes occurring in different stages of

demographic transition.

What is it? Model of population change based

on the effects of economic development

Based on the experience of how development happened in the Western World

All countries pass through 4 stages that lead them to a state of maturity

What does it look like?

Stage 1- preindustrial/preagricultural

Associated with pre-Modern times

Both birth and death rates are high resulting in slow population growth

What are the causes of high birth and death rates at this time?

Stage 2- improved agriculture and medicine

Low death rates

Infant mortality rate falls while the birth rate remains high

Rate of natural increase is high

Why do death rates decrease?

Without demographic transition, we would not have seen this pattern

Stage 3Indicative of richer, more developed countries

Higher standards of living and

education

Crude birth rate finally falls

Stage 4

Birth and death rates have both stabilized

Population gets older

Population stabilizes

Example Countries

Problems with the Demographic Transition

Model

• based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization

• many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth

• on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3