the demographic transition model. a descriptive generalization that depicts most countries’...
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The Demographic Transition Model
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The Demographic Transition Model
• A descriptive generalization that depicts most countries’ development from a pre-industrial society to a post-industrial society and beyond
• Describes changing levels of fertility and mortality as well as general levels of population growth
• Based on known facts rather than general assumption
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The Demographic Transition Model
As we go through, consider these questions: What countries might be in each stage? Where are the core, periphery and semi-periphery countries?
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Stage 1: High Stationary / Pre-Transition
• High birth rate and high death rate• Two rates are nearly equal • Death rate fluctuating likely due to war
and disease• Involves a low-income agricultural
economy• Children are less of an expense and
more of an asset• Population growth is very slow• Population resides in rural areas• Countries? Core, periphery or semi-
periphery?
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Stage 2: Expanding Stage / Early Transition
• Birth rate remains high
• Death rate begins to fall rapidly
• Results in population explosion
• Early industrialization paralleled with medical and health advances
• Infant mortality declines, life expectancy increases
• This stage characterizes nations in early development
• Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?
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Stage 3: Late Expanding Stage / Late Transition
• Principle feature is a declining birth rate which is the result of voluntary decisions to reduce family size and the availability of contraceptives• Increased standards of living • Rate of Natural Increase is falling• The cost of children is increasing • Medical advancements continuing to decrease death rate• Population still increasing relatively quickly • Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?
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Stage 4: Low Growth Stage / Post Transition
• Birth rate remains slightly above the death rate• Rate of Natural Increase is low• Population growth is low and stable • Women entering workforce, couples postponing families while educational goals are sought• Population viewed as ‘greying’ or ‘aging’ • Canada would fall into this stage of the DTM • Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?
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Stage 5: Deindustrialization / Declining
• The population is declining• Characterizes countries with present and predicted negative population growth rates such as Russia and many European countries• Death rate begins to exceed the birth rate • Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?
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Relationship to Population Pyramids
• By analyzing population pyramids, one can decipher fairly accurately the stage of the demographic transition model that that particular country is in and vice versa
• In combination with each other and if the model holds true, a countries future growth and development can be predicted
• Shortcoming of the Demographic Transition Model: does not provide a bold hypothesis about future growth or decline
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Stage 1: Pre-Transition and Unstable
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Stage 2: Expanding / Early Transition
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Stage 3: Stable / Late Transition
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Stage 4: Stationary / Post-Transition
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Stage 5: Deindustrialization / Declining
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Statistics (2007)
• Canada: BR 11; DR 7; IMR 5; LE 80; DT 84.3• United States: BR 14; DR 8; IMR 7; LE 78; DT 79.2• China: BR 12; DR 7; IMR 27; LE 72; DT 111.28• India: BR 24; DR 8; IMR 58; LE 64; DT 44.35• Indonesia: BR 21; DR 7; IMR 34; LE 69; DT 59.57• Brazil: BR 21; DR 6; IMR 27; LE 72; DT 57• Mexico: BR 21; DR 5; IMR 21; LE 75; DT 61.29• United Arab Emirates: BR 17; DR 2; IMR 9; LE 79; DT 18.26 • Australia: BR 13; DR 6; IMR 5; LE 81; DT 57.33• Afghanistan: BR 47; DR 21; IMR 166; LE 42; DT 26.65