1

Our Right to Clean AirThe Delhi Story

Anumita Roychowdhury

Centre for Science and Environment

Clean Air Leadership TalksAir Resources BoardSacramento, California June 21, 2017

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3

The genesis………….

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The exposé Nov 1, 1996The Hindu, Nov 2, 1996: The report reveals vehicles responsible for 64% of pollution..Major causes outdated vehicle technology, bad quality of fuel, poor traffic management and bad maintenance of vehicles…”

Indian Express, Nov 2, 1996: “The report uncovers for the first time, the reluctance of the auto industry to make technological changes in order to meet stringent emissions standards….”

Build knowledge to fire public opinion and push action

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Capital Punishment

Source: CSE

6

Late nineties: Public Ads

People’s Manifesto On Clean Air

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Lessons from first generation action in Delhi……

1998-2003Vehicles

Euro II emissions standards in 2000, five years ahead of schedule, Euro III in 2005; unleaded petrol

Largest ever public transport fleet – bus, taxis and three-wheeler on CNG

Number of three-wheelers capped

Phased out 15 year old commercial vehicles

Strengthened in-use vehicle inspection programme

Bypass transit truck traffic

Industry and power plantRelocated polluting industry; Stricter action on power plants; two power plants on natural gas; Ban on open burning

CNG Bus Emissions in 2004

0.32

0.009 0.0070

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Bharat stage II DieselBus (500ppm max.

sulfur)

Bharat stage II DieselBus +CRT (50ppm

max. sulfur)

Bharat statge II CNGBus + 3 way catalyst

PM e

miss

ions

from

bus

es in

gra

mm

es p

er k

ilom

etre

Delhi leapfrogged

Source: Emissions tests by ARAI and TERI

PM emissionsCNG rogramme helped Delhi to leapfrog from Euro I to Euro IV level

Euro II diesel bus emitted nearly 46 times higher PM than Euro II CNG bus

9

Sabotage

Resistance

10

Series of technical studies to inform new generation policy and counter disinformation…….

Cannot sustain air quality gains if action slows down

Source: CSE based on CPCB data

Particulates decline and rise again NO2 levels rising steadily

12

In grip of multi-pollutant crisis

Source: CSE analysis of CPCB data

Summer ozone: 8-hr concentration

Wins and losses

Source: CSE estimation based on Economic Survey of Delhi 2014-15

Carbon monoxidelevels decliningdespite increasein vehiclenumbers

PM and NOxtrends co-relatedwith motorisation.

14

Second generation challenge and action……

Health remains the key driverTowards evidence based action

Outdoor air pollution -- fifth largest killer in India……

More than 18 million healthy life years lost due to air pollution.

2017: HEI-GBD-- 48% increase in particulate related early deaths since 1990

-- 148% increase in ozone related early deaths since 1990

Health of children compromised……

2012 epidemiological study on children in Delhi (CPCB and Chittaranjan National Cancer Institute):

-- Covered about 12,000 school-going children from 36 schools.

-- Every third child has reduced lung function.

--- Sputum of Delhi’s children contains four times more iron-laden macrophages than those from cleaner environs, indicating pulmonary hemorrhage.

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Sputum cytology of a taxi driver

Source: CPCB and CNCI

Sputum cytology of a 14-year old girl in Delhi

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Ambient air quality vs Exposure

2015: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, IndiaReport of Steering committee on air pollution and health related Issues’,

-- First health ministry in the world to assess linkage between health and air pollution for policy action

States -- Shift from ambient concentration management to exposure management

Ambient concentrations do not always well represent human exposures, and not a good surrogate for total air pollution risk

More important to know how close we are to the pollution source, what are we inhaling, time spent close to the pollution source - than what occurs generally in the air that is influenced by climate and weather.

ChennaiPM2.5 emission apportionment

PM2.5 exposure apportionment

Source: S Guttikunda cited in Steering Committee report

1919

Citizens science stoke public opinion

Source: Based on CSE exposure monitoring and DPCC data for ambient levels

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Deadly winter smog: 2017

Supreme Court asks Government: “Do you have a plan before city shuts down?”

2015: National Air Quality Index and Health advisory

Graded response action plan notified: Take action based on daily air quality

Emergency action –remove 50% of cars from road based on license plate number; stop construction activities, shut down power plants etc

Supreme Court directs Comprehensive Action Plan

Source: IIT Kanpur, 2015

2017: The proposed plan states Delhi needs at least 74% reduction in PM2.5 levels to meet clean air standards

Detailed action plan for each source of pollution submitted

Source2015, Norwegian Institute for Air Research, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IITM

Perils of common air shed

Annual PM2.5 mean: Land locked Northern India more vulnerable

Local action can be compromised if regional action is weak

•Average PM2.5 level during the first week was 24% lower than the average of the preceding fortnight of April 2016. But pollution peaks during second week

Source: CSE analysis of DPCC real time data

Odd-Even 2.0 proves the point

Farm fires push up pollution

Figures: NASA Satellite Images showing open crop burning in Punjab, Haryana (From April 1 – 30, 2016

Source: NASA Fire Mapper

Crop fires: India burningApril 20th 2017

Source: NASA Satellite Image

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Complex story of vehicular pollution

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High toxic exposure

HEI: Influence of vehicular pollution maximum upto 300-500 m from roadside. About 55% of Delhi’s population within this zone.

Particles from diesel and coal combustion more harmful than windblown dust

IIT Kanpur: Vehicles are source of continuous emissions

Source: HEI

29

Diesel campaign: A catalyst

1999: Diesel car campaign

Indian Express, June 6, 1999: According to CARB, chronic exposure to 1 microgramme of diesel exhaust will lead to 300 additional cases of lung cancer per million people…” The greatest threat to our health comes from the high levels of toxic dust in Delhi’s air…”

Hindustan Times, July 4, 1999: Well aware that tiny particles from diesel exhausts kill thousands in Indian cities, MNCs …are bent upon introducing diesel vehicles…”

Times of India, September 2, 1999: Auto manufactures and environmentalists are bracing themselves for September 17 when hearing of diesel as a fuel comes up before the Supreme Court….

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Dieselised……..

Share of diesel models in popular car models as high as 70-75%

Source: Based on market data

Share of diesel cars in new car sales

87% of all gasoline cars below 1200 cc. More than 40% of the diesel cars above 1500 cc

Diesel cars Legal license to pollute

WHO: Diesel emissions –class I carcinogen

High contribution of diesel cars to PM2.5 levels in Delhi

Source: IIT Kanpur Study, 2015

IIT Kanpur study: Diesel cars are 25% of the total car fleet and contribute 78% of PM2.5 from vehicular sources inside the city

Demand for early introduction of Euro VI and clean diesel gets stronger

Leveraged Volkswagen fraud and its aftermath

Strong outreach on Volkswagen scandalICCT study on popular diesel car models emitting 6 to 12 times higher Nox in real world conditions in Europe

Automotive Research Association of India confirmed problems in India

Captured global backlash against diesel cars: Paris, London, Madrid etc. Brazil and Beijing banned diesel cars; Sri Lanka – restricts import Nigeria – diesel fuel priced higher than gasoline

Diesel – no winnerStrong carcinogenAlso a climate rogue -- Black carbon emissions more warming than CO2Higher life cycle emissions of CO2Rebound effect of more driving and more CO2 and pollution

Demand for fiscal measures to restrain diesel

National: Government Committees proposed higher taxes on diesel cars and decontrol of diesel fuel prices. In 2013-14 Union budget tax on SUVs increased

Delhi: Air Ambience Fund from environment cess on diesel fuel sold in Delhi

-- Road Tax on diesel cars increased in 2011 Delhi Budget

Supreme Court -- 2015: Ban diesel cars with 2000 cc engine and above ; Ban replaced with Environment Pollution Charge

Supreme Court bench-- “ The rich cannot go around in SUVs polluting the environment” …. You are saying diesel vehicles pollute less. So are your vehicles emitting oxygen?”

Environment compensation charge on each truck that enters the city. 30% drop in truck numbers

Clean air Fund for pollution control

National Green Tribunal orders ban on old diesel cars-

Car industry number game

Uncertainty in diesel car market Diesel car registration drops in Delhi

Source: CSE based on data from Transport Department, Delhi

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India decides to leapfrog to Euro VI

September 2016: Government notification : India to skip Euro V and leapfrog to Euro VI nation-wide in 2020.

Adopts particle number standards and RDE requirements

Now Euro IV nation-wide in 2017 had to be on track: Environment Pollution (Prevention and Control) Authority sought only sale of Euro IV vehicles from April 1, 2017; and not only manufacturing of new models

Push back from auto industry; Divide in the ranks of industry

New emissions standards along with first ever fuel economy standards

Supreme Court: Health more important. Stop sale of all Euro IV vehicles from April 1, 2017: “..notifications do not deserve to be given a literal meaning but a purposeful interpretation …To recall what Bob Dylan had to say – ‘the answer is blowing in the wind.” -- Supreme Court bench

Addressing diesel block to electro-mobility

Indian government setting ambitious targets for electro-mobility

First phase of FAME (Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicle) programme shows almost 60% of incentives gone to mild diesel hybrid cars -- also enjoying substantial excise cuts.

• 95% of all four-wheeled vehicles sold under this programmeare mild diesel hybrids; only 3% strong hybrids and 2% electric cars.

Strong criticism

•In March 2017, Government withdraws subsidy from mild hybrid cars from the FAME programme

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Fuel consumption of two wheeler models

70

66

48

35

63

52

61

57

77

66

43

40

72

65

46 5

0

38

01020

30405060

708090

0-100 100-200 200-300 300-400 400-500 500-600Engine capacity (cc)

Fuel cons.

(km

/l)

1996 2S BS I 2S BS II 4S BS I 4S BS II

96 2S 2S 4S 4S

Source: ARAI

Two-wheelers: The Indian dilemma

•High local emissions; smallest carbon footprint

•2020: Level 6 emissions standards – significant tightening; first ever particulate standards; OBD etc

•Adoption of WMTC cycleTwo-wheelers: ICCT Technology review -- substantial reduction possible Eg.. HC+NOx

Source: N V Iyer 2012/ICCT

Two-wheelers: Fuel consumption

Chart1

0-1000-1000-1000-1000-100

100-200100-200100-200100-200100-200

200-300200-300200-300200-300200-300

300-400300-400300-400300-400300-400

400-500400-500400-500400-500400-500

500-600500-600500-600500-600500-600

96 2S 2S 4S 4S

1996

2S BS I

2S BS II

4S BS I

4S BS II

Engine capacity (cc)

Fuel cons. (km/l)

Fuel consumption of two wheeler models

70.13

62.52

60.8

77.47

71.63

66.4

51.5

57

65.86

64.69

45.5

47.5

43

50

35

40

38

Sheet1

2 stroke

BS IBSII

Engine capacity (cc)Fuel consumption (km/l)Fuel consumption (km/l)

0-20-

20-40-

40-606059

6554

6855

7058

8360

600

620

00

630

630

720

60-805360

5460

5569

6051

6152

52

66

67

75

74

80-10054912

5560.8

56

57

60

61

73

73

0-1001438

62.5217391304

100-12050

50

120-140

140-1603171

56171

5957

60

206

51.5

2w four-stroke BS I2w four-stroke BS II

Engine capacity (cc)Fuel consumption (km/l)Fuel consumption (km/l)

0-1008174

8774

9580

6099

6555

6868

7050

7159

7262

7463

7664

7870

8071

8272

8477

8678

8879

131780

77.470588235386

1361

71.6315789474

100-2005755

5867

6268

6670

7071

7275

7476

7655

7860

4465

6267

6568

6970

7673

7875

8057

8258

8460

8662

4064

4366

4568

4870

151555

65.869565217447

60

1682

64.6923076923

200-300Not available49

42

91

45.5

300-4004045

4155

45100

4650

172

43

400-500Not availableNot available

500-6004037

4039

76

38

2w 1996

0-10065

68

75

76

77

52

54

56

58

62

64

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

161370.1304347826

70.1304347826

100-20065

70

74

78

80

81

82

83

84

45

57

58

75

62

64

66

68

55

62

64

65

54

55

56

57

166066.4

66.4

200-3000

300-40040

55

95

47.5

400-5000

500-60035

40

55

95

47.5

Sheet2

Fuel consumption

19962S BS I2S BS II4S BS I4S BS II

0-1007063617772

100-2006652576665

200-30046

300-400484350

400-500

500-600354038

0-100100-200200-300300-400400-500500-600

2s BSI62.5251.50000

2s BSII60.8570000

4s BSI77.4765.86043040

4s BSII71.6364.6945.550038

FE

0-1002S BS I62.52

2S BS II60.8

4S BS I77.47

4S BS II71.63

100-2002S BS I51.5

2S BS II57

4S BS I65.86

4S BS II64.69

Sheet2

1996

2S BS I

2S BS II

4S BS I

4S BS II

Engine capacity (cc)

Fuel cons. (km/l)

Fuel consumption of two wheeler models

Sheet3

FE

Fuel economy of two wheeler models

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Weak link between air pollution and mobility action

Cities are losing battle of car-bulge: The rapid increase in vehicles is destroying all gains of air pollution and health

Source: Based on: MOUD 2008, Study on traffic and transportation policies and strategies in urban areas in India, Wilbur Smith Associates, Ministry of Urban Development, May

Shadow of things to comeModal share trend 2007-2031

Private vehicle usage will increase. Public transport will stay stable or decline

More roads are not the answer …Lesson from Delhi

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

19

71

-72

.1

98

0-8

1.

19

90

-91

.1

99

3-9

4.

19

94

-95

.1

99

5-9

6.

19

96

-97

.1

99

7-9

8.

19

98

-99

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99

9-0

0.

20

00

-01

.2

00

1-0

2.

20

02

-03

.2

00

3-0

4.

20

04

-05

.2

00

5-0

6.

Ro

ad

len

gth

in k

ms

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Ro

ad

len

gth

pe

r 1

00

0 v

eh

icle

s

Road length in kms

Road length per 1000 vehicles

Source: Based on Economic Survey, Delhi Govt

Highest share of geographical area (22%) under road network; yet gridlocked

Parking pressure on public land with high opportunity cost: New annual parking demand from new cars in Delhi equivalent to 410 football fields

Inequitous use of land -- A car gets more space (23-26 sqm) to park than poor households to make houses (18-25 sq m).

Infrastructure locks in enormous pollution

Yet majority use public transport, walk and cycle in our cities …………

• 30-60% trips carbon neutral and low pollution trips• In Delhi cars meet only 15% of travel demand

43

Reality check in Delhi Public transport losing ground

Source: Anon 2008, transport demand forecast study: study and development of an integrated cum multi modal public transport network for NCT of Delhi, RITES, MVA Asia Ltd, TERI, September

4444

Car centric road design locks in enormous pollution

Engineering changes once made cannot be reversed easily… It permanently decides our travel choices

Source: Delhi Traffic Police

Car friendly road design make roads unsafe for pedestrians. Compromises public transport

usage

Road injury and deaths very high

Most affected are walkers and cyclists

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People friendly street design can promote low polluting modes

Connaught Place

• Implement street design guidelines

Source: CSE

National Habitat StandardAdoption of Transit oriented development policyGuidelines for compact mixed land use

-- 95% of residences should have daily needs retail, parks, primary schools and recreational areas accessible within 400m walking distance.

-- 95% residences should have access to employment and public and institutional services by public transport or bicycle or walk or combination of two or more.

-- At least 85% of all streets to have mixed use development.

-- Need small block size with high density permeable streets etc

Towards compact city to change mobility paradigm

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Broaden ambit of action to meet clean air standards …..

Towards clean energy

Badarpur Power Plant

Flyash dumping site

Badarpur coal based power plant

Action in Delhi NCR

The remaining coal powerplant in Delhi to shut in2018

Substitute coal in othersplants in the nationalcapital region with naturalgas

Improve access toelectricity and clean fuelsto address household airpollution and controldiesel generator sets forcaptive power generation

Source: CSE

The new exposé: Underbelly of dirty industrial fuels

Widespread use of dirty and cheap Petcoke and furnace oil. EPCA takes evidence based action

Sulphur content in petcoke upto74,000 ppm and in furnace oil upto23,000 ppm

Supreme Court order of May 2, 2017: Set SOx and NOx standards for industry by June and comply by December, 2017 - or substitute fuel

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Beyond Delhi:Need national clean air action plan to meet clean air standards in all

cities

Reduce emissions from vehiclesImplement Euro VI emissions standards with in-use compliance regulationsReinvent mobility – link with urban planning and design

Reduce emissions from power plantsEnforce tighter emissions standards for coal based power plantsShift to natural gas for power; improve access to clean energy

Reduce emissions from air polluting industryTighten industrial emissions control and monitoring; ban dirty fuels

Improve clean energy access for the poor Provide electricity and LPG to all households

Reduce emissions from generator setsTighter emission standards for generator sets; Improve energy accessPromote rooftop solar power to eliminate generator sets

Action on open burning and farm firesMonitoring and awareness campaign; re-use farm waste

Road dust and construction activitiesAdopt dust control measures for construction industry, roads, and trafficRecycle construction and demolition waste

Design fiscal measures to promote clean technology and fuels and change behaviour

52

Can we bend the pollution curve again?

Source: CSE based on CPCB data

53Thank You

Slide Number 1Slide Number 2The genesis………….The exposé Nov 1, 1996��The Hindu, Nov 2, 1996: The report reveals vehicles responsible for 64% of pollution..Major causes outdated vehicle technology, bad quality of fuel, poor traffic management �and bad maintenance of vehicles…”����Indian Express, Nov 2, 1996: “The report uncovers for the first time, the reluctance of the auto industry to make technological changes in order to meet stringent emissions standards….” Slide Number 5Late nineties: Public Ads �Lessons from first generation action in Delhi……Slide Number 8SabotageSlide Number 10Cannot sustain air quality gains if action slows downSlide Number 12Slide Number 13Second generation challenge and action…… Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Ambient air quality vs ExposureSlide Number 19Slide Number 20Supreme Court asks Government: “Do you have a plan before city shuts down?”Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Crop fires: India burning�April 20th 2017Complex story of vehicular pollution High toxic exposure Diesel campaign: A catalystSlide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Uncertainty in diesel car market �Diesel car registration drops in DelhiIndia decides to leapfrog to Euro VIAddressing diesel block to electro-mobilitySlide Number 38Slide Number 39Slide Number 40More roads are not the answer …Lesson from DelhiYet majority use public transport, walk and cycle in our cities …………Reality check in Delhi �Public transport losing ground Slide Number 44Slide Number 45Slide Number 46Towards compact city to change mobility paradigmBroaden ambit of action to meet clean air standards …..Slide Number 49The new exposé: Underbelly of dirty industrial fuelsBeyond Delhi:�Need national clean air action plan to meet clean air standards in all citiesSlide Number 52Slide Number 53