the decline of institutional religion - the washington post · 2013-03-25 · the decline of...
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www.pewforum.org
The Decline of Institutional Religion
Faith Angle Forum
South Beach, Florida March 18, 2013
Luis Lugo Pew Research Center
Washington, D.C.
1 Source: General Social Surveys, 1972-2010. Other religious affiliations and those who did not give an answer are not shown.
62
51
26 25
7
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1972 2010
Protestant
Catholic
None
%
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Long-Term Trends in Religious Affiliation
I
2 Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007-2012.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
White mainline
Black Protestant
Other minority Protestant
%
White evangelical
53
48
Declining Share Are Protestant
3 Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007-July 2012.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Nothing in particular
Agnostic
Atheist
%
15
20
Growth of the Religiously Unaffiliated
4
Trends in Religious Affiliation, 2007-2012
Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007- July 2012. In the change column, figures that are statistically significant are shown in bold. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 07-12
Change
% % % % % %
Christian 78 77 77 76 75 73 -5
Protestant 53 52 51 51 50 48 -5
White evang. 21 19 20 19 18 19 -2
White mainline 18 18 17 17 17 15 -3
Black Protestant 8 8 9 9 9 8 --
Other minority Prot. 6 6 6 6 6 6 --
Catholic 23 22 23 23 23 22 -1
Mormon 2 2 2 2 2 2 --
Orthodox 1 1 1 1 1 1 --
Other faith 4 5 5 5 5 6 +2
Unaffiliated 15.3 16.0 16.8 17.4 18.6 19.6 +4.3
Atheist 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 +0.8
Agnostic 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.3 +1.2
Nothing in particular 11.6 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.4 13.9 +2.3
Don’t know 2 2 2 2 1 2 --
100 100 100 100 100 100
5 Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007 and 2012. Changes that are statistically significant are shown in bold.
2007 2012 Change
% who describe themselves as religiously unaffiliated among… % %
U.S. general public 15.3 19.6 +4.3
Men 18 23 +5
Women 13 17 +4
College grad+ 17 21 +4
Some college or less 15 19 +4
$75,000+ 16 21 +5
$30,000-$74,999 15 20 +5
<$30,000 17 20 +3
Northeast 15 21 +6
Midwest 15 19 +4
South 12 15 +3
West 21 26 +5
Growth in Religious Disaffiliation, by Demographic Groups
6 Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007 and 2012. Hispanic figures based only on surveys that included Spanish interviewing. Changes that are statistically significant are shown in bold.
2007 2012 Change
% who describe themselves as religiously unaffiliated among… % %
U.S. general public 15.3 19.6 +4.3
White 15 20 +5
Black 13 15 +2
Hispanic 16 16 --
Growth in Religious Disaffiliation, by Race
Religious Switching: Recruitment
7 Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012.
25
89
83
74
11
17
0 20 40 60 80 100
Unaffiliated
Catholic
Protestant
Same religion Different religion
Current religion
% who were raised in…
Religious Switching: Retention
8 Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012.
58
64
80
40
21
6
14
13
0 20 40 60 80 100
Unaffiliated
Catholic
Protestant
Same religion Different religion Unaffiliated
Childhood religion
% who are currently…
9 Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
19
2
14
58%
22
14
19
22%
0 20 40 60 80 100
Nothing inparticular
Atheist/Agnostic
Unaffiliated
General public
Very Somewhat
Importance of Religion
II
10 Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
12%
16%
42%
29%
Agnostic
Atheist
Religious unaffiliated
Religiously indifferent
Composition of the Unaffiliated
Nothing in particular
71%
12
22
6
49
64
48
27
39
23
0 20 40 60 80
Pray daily
or more
Believe in
God,
absolutely
certain
Identify
as a
religious
person
All NiPs Religious Unaffiliated Religiously Indifferent
11
A Closer Look at the Nothing in Particulars
Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012.
12 Source: Pew Research Center/Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
39
9
30
77%
42
29
38
20%
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Nothing inparticular
Atheist/Agnostic
Unaffiliated
Affiliated
Yes, absolutely certain Yes, but less certain Net
97
68
38
81
Believe in God or Universal Spirit?
13 Source: Pew Research Center/Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
27
6
21
66%
24
11
20
22%
0 20 40 60 80 100
Nothing inparticular
Atheist/Agnostic
Unaffiliated
Affiliated
Daily Weekly/monthly
Frequency of Prayer
14
Weekly Monthly/ Yearly
Seldom/ Never DK N
% % % %
U.S. general public 37 33 29 1 = 100 17,010
Affiliated 48 34 18 1 = 100 13,821
Christian 49 33 17 1 = 100 13,086
Protestant 49 33 17 1 = 100 7,316
White evangelical 63 27 10 1 = 100 3,473
White mainline 27 43 30 * = 100 3,035
Black Protestant 56 32 12 1 = 100 1,319
Catholic 41 41 17 1 = 100 3,692
White Catholic 41 41 18 * = 100 2,546
Hispanic Catholic 42 41 16 1 = 100 866
Unaffiliated 5 22 72 1 = 100 2,942
Atheist/Agnostic 3 13 83 1 = 100 908
Nothing in particular 6 26 67 1 = 100 2,034
Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January-July 2012. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Frequency of Worship Attendance
15
Unaffiliated Affiliated
% %
Spiritual energy located in physical things such as mountains, trees and crystals
30 25
Yoga, not just as exercise, but as a spiritual practice
28 23
Reincarnation, that people will be reborn again and again
25 24
Astrology, that the position of stars/planets can affect people’s lives
25 25
Evil eye, that certain people can cast curses or spells that cause harm
12 17
Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, August 2009. Q291a-c,e,f. Other responses and those who did not give an answer are not shown.
Other Spiritual Beliefs % saying they believe in each of the following
16
Unaffiliated
Affiliated
% saying they have experienced each of the following:
%
%
Been in touch with someone who has already died
31 29
“Religious” or mystical experiences
30
53
Seen or been in the presence of a ghost 19 18
Consulted a fortuneteller or psychic 15 15
Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life survey, August 2009.Q292a-c;Q290. Other responses and those who did not give an answer are not shown.
Supernatural Experiences
17
Often Sometimes Rarely /never DK
% % % %
Affiliated 70 22 8 1 =100
Christian 70 21 8 1 = 100
Protestant 73 20 7 1 = 100
White evangelical 79 15 5 1 = 100
White mainline 62 29 9 * = 100
Black Protestant 82 14 3 1 = 100
Catholic 63 25 11 1 = 100
White Catholic 67 25 8 * = 100
Hispanic Catholic 57 23 17 3 = 100
Unaffiliated 53 29 17 1 = 100
Atheist/Agnostic 45 37 18 * = 100
Nothing in particular 56 26 17 1 = 100
Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Q21a. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Reflecting on the Meaning of Life
How often, if at all, do you think about the meaning and purpose of life?
18
75
18
7
23
15
37
34
39
8
42
57
36
Affiliated
Unaffiliated
Atheist/Agnostic
Nothing in particular
Religious Spiritual only Neither
Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Q50. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Identity as a Spiritual or Religious Person
19 Source: Pew Research Center/Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly survey, June 28-July 9, 2012.
% of “nothing in particulars” who are…
Nothing in
particular
%
Looking for religion that is right for them 10
Not doing this 88
Don’t know 2
100
Looking for a Religion?
20
32
21
15
9
67
77
84
90
18-29
30-49
50-64
65+
Unaffiliated Affiliated Don't know/Refused
Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January-July 2012.
Religious Affiliation by Age
III
Life-Cycle Effect on Affiliation
21 Source: General Social Surveys.
% unaffiliated with a religion, by generation
Importance of Religion
22 Source: Gallup Surveys.
% saying religion is very important in their lives, by generation
Daily Prayer
23 Source: General Social Surveys.
% saying they pray daily, by generation
Attendance at Religious Services
24 Source: General Social Surveys.
% saying they attend several times a week, every week or nearly every week, by generation
25 Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007-2012.
3 2
11 13
38
49
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2012
Seldom/never attend
Attend monthly/yearly
Attend weekly or more
2008 2009 2010 2011
%
Trends in Disaffiliation, by Religious Attendance
% of each attendance category that is unaffiliated
Common Reasons for Leaving Childhood Religion
Raised Catholic,
now unaffiliated
Raised Protestant,
now unaffiliated
% saying important reason left former religion % %
Just gradually drifted away from the religion 71 71
Spiritual needs not being met 43 39
Stopped believing in the religion’s teachings 65 50
Found a religion they liked more 10 11
Unhappy with teachings about the Bible 29 36
Dissatisfied with atmosphere at worship services 26 29
Dissatisfied with clergy at congregation 18 25
26 Source: Faith in Flux: Changes in Religious Affiliation in the U.S., April 2009, Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life
27 Source: Chaeyoon Lim, Carol Ann MacGregor, and Robert Putnam, Secular and Liminal: Discovering Heterogeneity Among Religious Nones, Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, Volume 49, Number 4, December 2010.
Liminal Nones
% of liminal nones in various religious traditions
28
Ideology Among Registered Voters
Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January- July 2012. Based on registered voters. Those who did not give an answer are not shown. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race.
Conser-
vative
Mod-
erate
Lib-
eral % % %
All registered voters 39 36 21
Unaffiliated 20 38 38 Atheist/Agnostic 13 32 51 Nothing in particular 23 41 31
Affiliated 44 36 17 Christian 46 35 15 Protestant 48 33 15 White evangelical 65 25 7 White mainline 39 39 20 Black Protestant 33 39 23 Catholic 39 42 17 White Catholic 41 42 15
IV
29
Social and Political Issues
Source: Abortion figures from aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2011-2012. Same-sex marriage figures from aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2012. Views on role of government from Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey, January 2012. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Abortion should be…
U.S. general public Unaffiliated Affiliated
% % %
Legal in all/most cases 53 72 49
Illegal in all/most cases 41 24 46
Don’t know 6 4 6
100 100 100
Same-sex marriage…
Favor 48 73 41
Oppose 44 20 50
Don’t know 9 7 9
100 100 100
Prefer…
Bigger gov’t, more services 39 42 38
Smaller gov’t, fewer services 52 50 52
Depends/don’t know 9 8 10
100 100 100
30
Party Identification Among Registered Voters
Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January- July 2012. Based on registered voters. Those with no party preference (who refused to lean) are not shown. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race.
Rep/
Lean Rep
Dem/
Lean Dem % %
All registered voters 43 48
Unaffiliated 26 63 Atheist/Agnostic 18 73 Nothing in particular 30 58
Affiliated 48 45 Christian 49 43 Protestant 50 42 White evangelical 71 22 White mainline 52 40 Black Protestant 7 89 Catholic 44 47 White Catholic 50 41
31
Religious Composition of Democratic/Democratic-Leaning Registered Voters
Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January-July 2012. Based on registered voters. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. “Other” includes Protestants and Catholics of a race or ethnic group not shown and those affiliated with other religions.
24%
16%
14% 9%
13%
5%
18%
White evangelical Protestant
Other Religiously Unaffiliated
White mainline Protestant
Black Protestant
White Catholic
Hispanic Catholic
70
67
67
78
77
52
47
47
41
90
90
81
Unaffiliated Affiliated
Bring people together and strengthen community bonds
Play important role helping
poor and needy
Protect and strengthen morality
Are too concerned with money and power
Focus too much on rules
Are too involved with politics
32
Views About Churches and Religious Organizations
Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Q73a-g. Those saying “disagree” and those who did not give an answer are not shown.
% saying they agree that churches and other religious organizations do each of the following
33 Sources: Data on president’s religious beliefs and churches endorsing candidates comes from Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Data on church involvement in political matters comes from Pew Research Center survey, March 2012.
75
66
32%
64
51
75%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Churches should notendorse candidates
Churches should keepout of political matters
Important for apresident to have strong
religious beliefs
Affiliated Unaffiliated
Views on Religion and Politics
In Their Own Words – Main Reasons for Leaving Childhood Religion
Raised Catholic,
now unaffiliated
Raised Protestant,
now unaffiliated
% %
Religious and moral beliefs 48 40
Do not believe in former religion/any religion 21 14
Biblical/Scriptural reason 2 4
Religious institutions, practices and people 36 20
Pedophilia scandal/Molestation 2 0
Personal spirituality 6 9
Life cycle changes 5 4
Family reasons 4 2
Other reasons 10 21
Don’t know/Refused 4 10
34 Source: Faith in Flux: Changes in Religious Affiliation in the U.S., April 2009, Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
Religio
us
Com
mit
ment
Score
Per Capita GDP (Standardized)
U.S.
Africa
West Europe
East Europe
Kuwait
Canada
Israel
Mexico
North America
West Europe
East Europe
Latin America
Middle East
Asia
Africa
This chart has been reprinted from “World Publics Welcome Global Trade – But Not Immigration,” Pew Global Attitudes Project, 2007.
Wealth and Religious Commitment
35
(2)
36
Increasing Losing Same (vol.) DK
% % % %
U.S. general public 25 66 2 7 = 100
Unaffiliated 27 63 2 7 = 100
Atheist/Agnostic 34 59 2 5 = 100
Nothing in particular 24 65 2 8 = 100
Affiliated 24 67 2 6 = 100
Christian 24 68 2 6 = 100
Protestant 25 67 2 6 = 100
White evangelical 21 72 2 4 = 100
White mainline 20 73 2 6 = 100
Black Protestant 33 60 2 4 = 100
Catholic 21 70 3 6 = 100
White Catholic 18 75 2 5 = 100
Hispanic Catholic 27 60 5 8 = 100
Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Q42. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Influence of Religion on Society
% saying religion as a whole is … its influence on American life
37 Source: Surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 1987-2012.
88
80
10
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1987 1997 2007 2012
Agree that "I never doubt the existence of God."
Disagree
%
Declining Share Say They “Never Doubt” the Existence of God
38
Religious Attendance of U.S. Adults, 2003-2012
39
37
34 33
25
29
0
10
20
30
40
50
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Weekly or more
Seldom/Never
Monthly/Yearly
%
Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2003-2012.
58 59 58 58 57 60 61
59 59 58 60 61
59 59 57 56
54 56
54 55 58
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
39
Importance of Religion, 1992-2012
% who say religion is very important
Source: Surveys conducted by Gallup, 1992-2012.
76 78 77
80 78 78 78 79
81 78 78
76
23 21 22
19 22 21 21 21
18 21 20
23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1987 1988 1990 1991 1994 1997 1999 2002 2003 2007 2009 2012
40
Importance of Prayer, 1987-2012
Agree
Disagree
Do you agree or disagree that prayer is an important part of your daily life?
Source: Surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 1987-2012.
41 Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007 and 2012. Hispanic figures based only on surveys that included Spanish interviewing. Changes that are statistically significant are shown in bold.
2007 2012 Change
% who describe themselves as religiously unaffiliated among… % %
U.S. general public 15.3 19.6 +4.3
White 15 20 +5
Black 13 15 +2
Hispanic 16 16 --
Married 14 14 --
Not married 20 24 +4
Religious Disaffiliation by Demographic Groups
(3)
Married
Living
with partner
Divorced/ Separated/Widowed Never married
% % % %
U.S. general public 51 7 19 23 = 100
Affiliated 54 6 20 20 = 100
Christian 54 6 21 19 = 100
Protestant 54 5 23 19 = 100
White evangelical 62 3 22 13 = 100
White mainline 58 6 22 14 = 100
Black Protestant 36 6 27 32 = 100
Catholic 54 8 18 20 = 100
White Catholic 58 6 19 16 = 100
Hispanic Catholic 49 10 17 25 = 100
Unaffiliated 39 11 16 34 = 100
Atheist/agnostic 36 11 12 40 = 100
Nothing in particular 40 11 17 32 = 100
42
Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January - July 2012. Results repercentaged to exclude nonresponse. White and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race.
Marital Status of Religious Groups
43
Current Marital Status, 1960-2010
Note: Based on adults ages 18 and older. Percents may not total 100% due to rounding. Source: Pew Research Center’s Social and Demographic Trends analysis of Decennial Census (1960-2000) and American Community Survey data (2008, 2010), IPUMS.
%
44
Median Age at First Marriage, 1960-2011
Source: Pew Research Center’s Social and Demographic Trends analysis of Current Population Survey, March and Annual Social and Economic Supplements.
45
Trend in Party Identification: 1939-2012
Source: 1929-1989 yearly averages from the Gallup Organization interactive website. 1990-2012 yearly totals from Times Mirror/Pew Research Center aggregate files. Based on general public. Independent data not available for 1951-1956.
Democrat
Republican
Independent
41
35
18
38
32
24
46 Source: Pew Research Center poll conducted October 24-28, 2012. Nonvoters include all unregistered adults as well as registered voters who do not meet the criteria for likely voters used in Pew Research Center polls.
All adults Likely voters
Non-voters
Party ID % % %
Republican 28 34 17
Democrat 33 35 29
Independent 33 27 44
Partisan Profile of Nonvoters
Rise and Decline of League Bowling
47 Source: Robert D. Putnam, Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community, 2000.
48
Confidence in Institutions, 1973-2011
% saying they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence
Question wording: “Now I am going to read you a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one – a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little?”
Note: Data not available for Congress in 1987. Source: Gallup New Service Survey, conducted June 9-12, 2011. Based telephone interviews of a national sample of 1,020 adults.
49
Confidence in the Church/Organized Religion
% saying they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence
Question wording: “Now I am going to read you a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one – a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little?” Source: Gallup New Service Survey, conducted June 7-10, 2012. Based telephone interviews of a national sample of 1,004 adults.
Those who are active in religious
groups
Those who aren’t active in such
groups
Sports or recreation leagues 35% 17%
Charitable or volunteer organizations 34 15
Professional or trade associations 29 14
Political parties or organizations 22 10
Alumni associations 20 10
Performance arts groups 19 5
Literary, discussion, or study groups 18 6
Veterans organizations 11 4
Sports fantasy leagues 8 6
Farm organizations 7 2
50
Other Organizations to Which Religiously Active Americans Belong
Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project, 2011 The civic and community engagement of religiously active Americans, p. 14-15.
51
Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, 2012. Q22 Those who did not give an answer are not shown. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race.
Importance of Shared Community
49
61
61
59
43
40
28
34
29
27
31
41
43
40
16
8
11
9
15
16
31
Very important Somewhat important Not too/Not at all important
U.S. general public Black Protestant Hispanic Catholic White evangelical White Catholic White mainline Unaffiliated
% saying belonging to a community of people who share your values and beliefs is…
