the daily forecaster sample2

7/29/2019 The Daily Forecaster Sample2

1/9

Ian Copsey

The Daily Forecaster is designed for use by both institutional and private traders of all time frames to provide them with the technical view of a master technician of

over 20 years experience the anticipated direction of the day along with key support and resistance levels. Ian Copsey has developed his own blend of analytical

techniques that are unique in terms of his adaptation of Elliott Wave, application of cycles, Fibonacci and momentum analysis. While the analysis provides a

preferred bias for the day it is recognized that forecasts can never be 100% accurate and an alternative description is given of the potential move if the preferred

direction breaks down. This is to ensure that subscribers are not left without guidance and framework at those times.

www. fx - fo recas te r . com info@fx- forecaster .com

6 th June 2008

Genera l Out look

Yesterday the analyses were mixed overall but the main point of interest was the Euro which bouncedperfectly from the 1.5361-83 area. I had indicated that this would mean a recovery to 1.5560 at least and

indeed this was seen very quickly, even exceeding that target.

The question remains in the currency pair whether the Dollars upside is still intact or whether we should

return to the triangle scenario I had originally been considering. Well, if I pushed myself I could still retain a

bearish Euro view but this 1.5600 area is very crucial. Most likely it will hold for a correction but the larger

picture does still suggest room for further gains. Indeed, short term momentum does still seem pretty firm

and this tends to suggest follow-through higher. Beware, it could still be quite choppy but the 1.5760-85

area looks achievable.

Now this begs questions elsewhere. The original triangle in the Swissie seems to have been a red herring

with the sharp decline from 1.0520. Again, it is poised upon critical support at 1.0351 and any loss will

accelerate losses back down to the 1.0265 and 1.0214 areas initially but may just see

it push a little further.

Dollar-Yen has approached the 106.82-00 target as suggested, though still a little way to go. The 105.30-54area must support to reach target. If it goes through 107.00 Ill have to review but the next resistance is at

107.48.

Finally the Pound continues to defy normal wave relationships and with the decline from 1.9849 being

exceptionally choppy I suspect all is not well and this too may be entering into a sideways consolidation. As

with the other Europeans it is poised just below the 1.9600-10 resistance. If this breaks then we should

move back up to 1.9700-20 before coming back down.

So with the non-farm payrolls at hand tonight we shall probably see l imited movements until then. Work

with breaks and be aware of the support/resistance levels.

Have a reat weekend.

l l l l l l l .

anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making

your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits

or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions

or views expressed in Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible

for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed

or shared.

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2/9

S u m m a r y

USDJPY Resistance

106 .61-92

108 .16

107 .48

107 .00

106 .82

1 Go to detailed analysis 106 .30-42

EURUSD Resistance

1 .5785

1 .5765

1 .5693-17

1 .5666

1 .5627

1 Go to detailed analysis 1 .5600

USDCHF Resistance

1 .0623

1 .0567

1 .05261 .0455-80

1 .0430-35


GBPUSD Resistance

1 .9812-49

1 .9760-84

1 .9700-20

1 .9655

1 .9636

2 Go to detailed analysis 1 .9600-10

AUDUSD Resistance

0 .9747

0 .9708-200 .9694

0 .9653

0 .9636


USDCAD Resistance

1 .0376

1 .0317

1 .0271

1 .0241

1 .0218


EURJPY Resistance

167 .02

166 .56-71

166 .34

165 .88

165 .64

1 Go to detailed analysis 165 .36 162 .60

The move back above 162.65 followed by163.20-28 triggered aggressive gains that have burst above the old 1.6446 and164.96 highs. I am slightly uncertain of the wave structure but note that momentum is generally strained. Never-the-less

I suspect we should see a minimum move to 165.83-88 while I cannot rule out a test of 166.56-71. While this is posisble

the 164.90-20 area should ideally hold.

164 .95

164 .50

164 .20

163 .70

163 .00-20

0 .9950-70

Mi x ed - w a i t i ng f o r b r eak s S uppor t

0 .9363

I c au t i ous l y r e ta i n a bea r i sh ou t l ook f o r l os s es be l ow 1 .0155 to t r i gge r f o l l ow - th r ough to 1 .0105 S uppor t

The additional move to 1.0218 was surprising but I'll stick to the view that a correction is due. Thus while 1.0180 and

1.0218 cap we should see breach of support at 1.0155 to generate follow-through to 1.0105 minimum and probably

1.0082. However, I suspect this stands a good chance of holding with the next support at 1.0058 also strong.

1 .0155

1 .0140

1 .0105

1 .0082

1 .0021-58

Yesterday's 0.9519 support was broken briefly but the recovery from 0.9510 is encouraging. Even so we need to be

careful in case we are seeing a sideways consolidation before the next move. Certainly the bullish structure looks strongerbut we must allow for a dip to 0.9525-30 within that consolidation. A break above 0.9610 will trigger follow-through to

0.9636 which I suspect will cause a brief correction before final gains towards the 0.9708-20 target area.

0 .9565

0 .9525-300 .9510

0 .9485

0 .9430

1 .5555

T he bounc e f r om 1 .9460 appear s t o s ugges t a mov e bac k abov e 1 .9600- 10 fo r 1 .9760- 84

The 1.9460 low was not expected but is close enough to the 1.9478 support that I feel we are seeing a larger sideways

consolidation. Within this there is still room for a pullback from the key 1.9600-10 resistance to reach the 1.9536-49

support. A move from here back above 1.9600-10 would trigger stronger gains through 1.9655 and to 1.9700-20 at least.

Take care as this could cause a pullback. The eventual target is at 1.9760-85 but may take a day or two more to reach.

1 .9335-63

1 .9500

1 .9460

S uppor t

1 .9571

1 .9536-49

1 .0265-73

Whi l e 1 .0410- 24 c aps t he r i s k appear s t o be t u r n i ng f o r l os s es back t o 1 .0265 - 73 & b e l ow

1 .0214

1 .5481

1 .5453

1 .0331

1 .0295

T he 0 .9525- 0 .9610 r ang e t r i gge r s t he nex t mov e S uppor t

1 .5419

1 .5263

The sharp reversal from the 1.0520 level breaks down the triangle I had been looking at and does potentially suggest

further losses. This will require the 1.0410-24 area to cap and then see breach of 1.0331 which would likely extend losses

to 1.0265-95 from where a pullback should be expected. Next support is then found at hte 1.0214 low.

S uppor t

1 .0351

1 .0111-34

The 1.5361 support held perfectly and managed to reach the 1.5560 target for the recovery directly. Indeed, with this

exceeded there is a strong risk that we shall see the original triangle scenario develop. I feel that we should see a

correction first and this should move down to the 1.5521 level minimum and probably 1.5480. While this holds (but bear

in mind the next support at 1.5453) I feel the next rally will be stronger and above 1.5600-27 to extend gains further to

1.5719 at least.

Whi l e 105 .30 - 54 s uppor t s t h e r a l l y s hou l d r each 106 .82 - 00

105 .70

103 .86-13

105 .10

104 .50-55

S uppor t

Gains were seen all the way to the 106.20 resistance but this held only briefly and found a high yesterday at 106.42. The

wave relationships haven't been great but whichever way I look at this we should see higher levels. There is support

between 105.30-54 and while this holds we should see gains to the 106.82-00 ideal target. Here I see a strong argument

for a high to be established. Therefore only breach extends the upside to 107.48 and possibly 108.16.

105 .54

105 .30

T he 1 .5600 r es i s tance s hou l d c aus e a pu l l back bu t I s us pect 1 .5481 - 1 .5521 w i l l ho l d f o r f u r t he r

1 .9420

S uppor t

1 .5521


3/9

106 . 15

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSD

USDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

Bias

Tra i l i ng S top

RSI

1

The momentum remains positive and we should await test of the critical 106.82-00 resistance. A cap

here would encourage larger losses that would need to break back below 105.80 and 105.50 to

cause a deeper move lower. Only an earlier break below 105.10-30 would imply the upside is

already complete and cause losses down to 104.50.

F ind ing a h igh a t any

t im e - poss ib ly

a l ready passed

Di rec t ion and t im ing

RSI Bea r ish d ive rgence

Risk i s st i l l l ow e r in to Ju ly bu t f rom t hen

expect a recove ry in the to yea r- end

29 th May: The 106.82 target is back on track and while the 105.68-00 area should initially cause a

pullback the next rally should hit the 106.82 retracement target which should cap or force stronger

gains to 107.36-78.

4-Hour Momentum

106 .61 -92

108 .16

105 .10

S uppor t

105 .70

105 .54

Resistance

USDJPY 6 th June 2008Pr ice

103 .86 -13

106 .82

106 .30 -42

105 .30

High-neu t ra l

Week ly Cyc les & Mom entum

Month ly Cyc les & Momentu m

I an Copsey 2008

Dai ly Bu l l i sh

Med Term

Bul l i sh

Dai l y Bear ish

M ed te rm

Bear ish

6 th June : An earlier reversal level is at 105.10 and a stronger one at 104.50 which would cause

losses to the 103.86 area but this may hold for a correction before the next leg lower towards the

102.56 area.

El l io t t Wave :

Bu l l i sh conso l ida t ion

Bea r ish d ive rgence

Gains were seen all the way to the 106.20 resistance but this held only briefly and found a high

yesterday at 106.42. The wave relationships haven't been great but whichever way I look at this we

should see higher levels. There is support between 105.30-54 and while this holds we should see

gains to the 106.82-00 ideal target. Here I see a strong argument for a high to be established.

Therefore only breach extends the upside to 107.48 and possibly 108.16.

107 .48

107 .00

Whi l e 105 .30 -54 suppo r t s the ra l l y shou l d reach 106 .82 -00

104 .50 -55

The week ly cyc le shou ld on ly have l im i ted

in f luence ove r the yea r w i th mon th ly cyc les

po in t ing sha rp ly lowe r

4 th June

It looks as if yesterdays 103.86 low provided the low in Wave

(b) being a 61.8% retracement. A wave equality target in

Wave (c) rests at 107.00 and just 18 points above the daily

50% retracement in Wave (iv) at 106.82.

6 th June

I still cant say the wave relationships are 100% clear but the

strength has taken us to within 42 points of the ideal 106.82

target. If we take last nights high as a Wave iii of Wave (c)

then a 50% retracement is at 105.30 (58.6% at 105.10) and

while this holds the final leg should reach target.

Only break above would imply a much more bullish structure

with an alternative 176.4% projection in Wave iii- at 107.48.


4/9

1 . 5589

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSD

USDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

Bias

Tra i l i ng S top

RSI

1

1 .5555

1 .5521

1 .5481

EURUSD Pr ice 6 th June 2008

Resistance

1 .5785

1 .5765

1 .5693-17

1 .5666

1 .5627

1 .5600

Dai ly Cyc les & Mom entum

1 .5453

1 .5263

T he 1 .5600 res i stance shou l d cause a pu l lback bu t I suspec t 1 .5481 -1 .5521 w i l l ho l d fo r f u r th e r ga i ns

1 .5419

Dai ly Bu l l i sh


Ove rbough t

I t m a y h a v e b e en t h a t

we have jus t seen the

h ighMed Term

Bul l i sh

6 th June : The solid bounce from 1.5361 is more encouraging for the bulish stance though the

1.5600-27 level needs to be broken first. Once this occurs we should see an eventual move to the

1.5765-85 area before reversing lower. RSI N e u t ra l

Dai ly Bear ish

El l io t t Wave :

While the stronger argument is bullish there does remain one final (weak) argument for the

downside. This will require the resistance already tested at 1.5600-10 to cap. A break from there

below 1.5521 followed by 1.5450-80 would raise the argument for losses back to 1.5363 initially but

should then see a correction. Overall this scenario would imply a retest at the 1.5283 low.


M ed te rm

Bear ish


5th June : We are now testing critical supports but only below 1.5360 suggests a more direct attack

back at the 1.5283 low and possibly even further to 1.5188 while a larger target is at 1.5082.

Curren t l y f i nd ing a h igh w i th a s t rong

bea r ish d ive rgence

The mon th ly cyc les appea r to be lower fo r

some wh i le to come and the re fo re the

cu rren t s t reng th i s co r rec t i ve

I an Copsey 2008

6 th June :

We are faced with two scenarios:

(1) That the 1.5361 low was a 261.8% projection in minor

Wave iii within a 5 wave move lower. A 50% correction from

there has already been exceeded at 1.5560 but has stalled at

the 58.6% retracment which is marked by the 1.5600 pivot

area. This then needs to see a move below the 50%-61.8%

retracment between 1.5450-80 to generate Wave a of Wave vlower to teh 1.5363 level again.

(2) That the 1.5363 low was the end of Wave ^b of a triangle

with a break above 1.5600-26 signaling gains to the 61.8%-

66.7% projection in Wave ^c at 1.5765-85. This currently

looks a more likely scenario.

Di rec t ion and t im ing

The 1.5361 support held perfectly and managed to reach the 1.5560 target for the recovery directly.

Indeed, with this exceeded there is a strong risk that we shall see the original triangle scenario

develop. I feel that we should see a correction first and this should move down to the 1.5521 level

minimum and probably 1.5480. While this holds (but bear in mind the next support at 1.5453) I feel

the next rally will be stronger and above 1.5600-27 to extend gains further to 1.5719 at least.

4-Hour Momentum

S uppor t


5/9

1 . 0384

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSD

USDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

Bias

Tra i l i ng S top

RSI

2Di rec t ion and t im ing A l ready seen the low?

Dai ly Bear ish

USDCHF Pr ice 6 th June 2008

Resistance

1 .0623

1 .0567

1 .0526

1 .0455-80

1 .0430-35

1 .0410

S uppor t

1 .0351

1 .0331

1 .0295

Whi l e 1 .0410 -24 caps the r i s k appea rs to be tu rn i ng fo r l osses back to 1 .0265 -73 & be l ow

Dai ly Bu l l i sh


Neu t ra l

1 .0265-73

1 .0214

1 .0111-34

M ed te rm

Bear ish

The sharp reversal from the 1.0520 level breaks down the triangle I had been looking at and does

potentially suggest further losses. This will require the 1.0410-24 area to cap and then see breach of

1.0331 which would likely extend losses to 1.0265-95 from where a pullback should be expected.

Next support is then found at hte 1.0214 low.



Gains were initially seen yesterday but the failure at 1.0520 and break below 1.0425 has broken the

triangle and it will be better to retain an open mind here. While the move does look more bearish

there is one last argument for renewed strength and this will require the 1.0331-51 area to remain

intact then cause a reversal back above 1.0410-24. If seen then the argument turns higher again for

a move back to 1.0455-65 initially and probably back towards the 1.0526 high - possibly 1.0623.

4-Hour Momentum

Med Term

Bul l i sh

6 th June : Failure at 1.0520 does cause some doubts over the bullish structure but there is one last

scenario remaining that would mean the 1.0331-51 area supports for a stronger move back above

1.0623 for 1.0650 and probably 1.0732.


6th June : The wave structure is quite complicated but until we see it break above 1.0526 again

there is risk for a renewed attempt lower towards the 1.0214 low and then the 1.0111-34 area.

El l io t t Wave :

6 th June :

The failure at 1.0520 has seen a decline that caused the prior

triangle scenario to break down. Now it could be that we have

just seen an expanded flat correction from the original 1.0489

high and if this is the case then it formed Wave i of a new

Wave -a- and the 1.0331-51 area should then be the Wave ii.

If so the 138.2% projeciton in Wave iii is at 1.0650 and the

176.4% at 1.0732. Break above 1.0424 woudl argue for this to

occur.

The alternative is that we have seen a Wave -x- at 1.0526 and

thus we could still be seeing a second ABC decline that would

argue for amove to the 1.0214 area initially and probably to

the 161.8% projection in Wave -c- at 1.0111 which is just

above the 50% correction in the larger pullback at 1.0134.

I an Copsey 2008

RSI N e u t ra l

H ighe r - cyc les have recen t l y foun d ma jo r

low and p rov ide a l i f t fo r seve ra l mon th s

The mon th ly cyc les appea r to be bea r ish fo r

some yea rs and the re fo re th is yea r ' s

recove ry i s co r rec t i ve on ly


6/9

1 . 9586

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSD

USDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

Bias

Tra i l i ng S top

RSI

1

S uppor t

GBPUSD Pr ice 6 th June 2008

Resistance

1 .9812-49

1 .9760-84

L o w -n e u t ra l

1 .9700-20

1 .9655

1 .9636

1 .9600-10

1 .9571

T he bounce f rom 1 .9460 appea rs to sugges t a move back above 1 .9600 -10 fo r 1 .9760 -84

6 th June :

The 1.9478 support represented a 76.4% retracement to the

rally from 1.9363 to 1.9849. The small breach to 1.9460

yesterday may well have just been a minor overshoot and thus

it could be Wave ^b of a triangle Wave (b). If this is the case

we should see break back above the 1.9600-10 pivot area and

if so then the 61.8%-66.7% projection in Wave ^c rests at

1.9760-85.

If the downside is still in play then it may be that we are still in

the midst of a Wave c (of Wave iii) decline. Within this the

50% retracement in Wave iv would be at 1.9600. Thus this

area needs to cap to retain the bearish structure. Break below

a 50%-61.8% retracement to yesterday's recovery at 1.5336-

49 would resurrect the downside for a move below 1.9460 and

probably to the 1.9335-63 lows initially.

6 th June : Yesterday's recovery provides a warning that we may not be in a direct downtrend. Thus,

only while 1.9600-10 caps and we see a move below 1.9460 would I expect follow-through to

1.9335-63 and probably lower.

M ed te rm

Bear ish

Dai l y Bear ish

Month ly cyc les a re bea r ish in to ea r l y next

yea r

Lower - i n t o A p r i l n e x t y e a r t h o u g h t h e re

shou ld be an in te rven ing recove ry

Med Term

Bul l i sh

5 th June : The break down below 1.9596 does seem to argue for more persistent losses. If there is

any chance of a larger recovery then we need the 1.9449-78 area to support with a move above

1.9630 seeing gains. RSI

1 .9536-49

1 .9500

1 .9335-63

L o w -n e u t ra l

Bea r ish t rend

Dai ly Bu l l i sh

The 1.9460 low was not expected but is close enough to the 1.9478 support that I feel we are

seeing a larger sideways consolidation. Within this there is still room for a pullback from the key

1.9600-10 resistance to reach the 1.9536-49 support. A move from here back above 1.9600-10

would trigger stronger gains through 1.9655 and to 1.9700-20 at least. Take care as this could

cause a pullback. The eventual target is at 1.9760-85 but may take a day or two more to reach.

4-Hour Momentum

1 .9460

1 .9420



The loss of 1.9478 only permitted limited losses to 1.9460 before springing back higher. While I

prefer a bullish stance there is one last scenario that would allow the downside to develop once

again. This would require the 1.9600-10 area to cap and for a break below 1.9536 which would then

provoke follow-through to 1.9500 and the 1.9460 low en route 1.9420 and probably the 1.9335-63lows.

I an Copsey 2008

El l io t t Wave :


Di rec t ion and t im ing Unde r rev iew


7/9

0 . 9597

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSD

USDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

Bias

Tra i l i ng S top

RSI

1

I an Copsey 2008

M ed te rm

Bear ish

4 th June : The 0.9500 level has broken but only just and the lack of follow-through may mean we

need to wait for a test of 0.9666-0.9720. An earlier drop below 0.9485 would trigger stronger losses

to 0.9345 and 0.9274-90.

Month ly cyc les appea r to be bea r ish fo r

q u i t e s o m e t i m e

El l io t t Wave :

Yesterday's losses were slightly strongerthan anticipated but the recovery from 0.9510 is

encouraging more for the upside. Even then there is risk of a sideway consolidation that on a break

of 0.9565 would allow slippage to 0.9525-30. Thus a stronger bearish stance will require break of

0.9525 which, if seen, would accelarate losses through 0.9510 and 0.9485 en route 0.9430minimum and probably 0.9363.


Dai ly Bear ish


L o w e r- p ro b a b l y d o w n i n t o t h e 4 t h q u a r t e r

4 th June : Price action has been exceptionally erratic but the 0.9485 level was a last resort support

and this still maintains the risk of a move to 0.9666 and maximum 0.9720.RSI Bea r ish d ive rgence

Yesterday's 0.9519 support was broken briefly but the recovery from 0.9510 is encouraging. Even so

we need to be careful in case we are seeing a sideways consolidation before the next move.

Certainly the bullish structure looks stronger but we must allow for a dip to 0.9525-30 within that

consolidation. A break above 0.9610 will trigger follow-through to 0.9636 which I suspect will cause

a brief correction before final gains towards the 0.9708-20 target area.

4-Hour Momentum

Dai ly Bu l l i sh


Neu t ra l


Di rec t ion and t im ingF ind ing a h igh th is

w e e k ?Med Term

Bul l i sh

0 .9430

0 .9363

T he 0 .9525 -0 .9610 range t r i gge rs the nex t move

0 .9565

0 .9525-30

0 .9510

0 .9485

Resistance

0 .9747

0 .9708-20

0 .9694

0 .9653

0 .9636

0 .9610

S uppor t

AUDUSD Pr ice 6 th June 2008

4 th June :

How terribly frustrating price action has been. This mornings

low at 0.9485 represents a possible deep 58.6% retracement

in Wave iv. This would see a 66.7% projection in Wave v at

0.9726 which is close to the 161.8% projection in Wave c-

and the 76.4% Wave v- target at 0.9720.

Any earlier drop below 0.9485 would signal the end of the

uptrend and cause stronger losses, initially to 0.9345 and then

the 0.9274-90 lows.

6 th June

The low at 0.9510 may well have been a deep Wave b and

thus retain the risk of seeing Wave c resume higher. The

intermediate risk to this is that Wave b could develop in a

triangle which woudl have a base at 0.9525. Back above

0.9610 would see a minor 176.4% projection in minor Wave iii

at 0.9636 and following a Wave iv should then attack 0.9666

and probably 0.9708-20.


8/9

1 . 0167

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSD

USDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

Bias

Tra i l i ng S top

Overbough t

2

I an Copsey 2008

M ed te rm

Bear ish

5 th June : The upside still looks to have stronger legs and should mean we have seen the major

low. Only a break back below 1.0000 would undermine the up move for a correction back to 0.9905-

50.

Data too sho r t and canno t be ce r ta in bu t

suspect lowe r

El l io t t Wave :

The additional move to 1.0218 was surprising but I'll stick to the view that a correction is due. Thus

while 1.0180 and 1.0218 cap we should see breach of support at 1.0155 to generate follow-through

to 1.0105 minimum and probably 1.0082. However, I suspect this stands a good chance of holding

with the next support at 1.0058 also strong.


Dai ly Bear ish


Highe r - Any move low er appea rs to be a

co rrec t ion w i th in a la rge r recove ry

Broad ly h ighe r and

w a i t i n g f o r a l o w t o b e

pu t in p lace

RSI Ove rbough t

Yesterday's blip higher to 1.0218 was not quite within my expectations. However, with a bearish

divergence formed in the hourly chart I suspect we shall have to wait for the next move above

1.0218. Thus only an earlier break of yesterday's high would extend gains above 1.0241 and 1.0271

and to the next resistance at 1.0317-25

4-Hour Momentum

Dai ly Bu l l i sh

Bu l l i sh t rend

Overbough t


Di rec t ion and t im ingMed Term

Bul l i sh

6 th June : While we have seen a breach of 1.0190 I still want to be cautious and only follow-

through above yesterday's high would imply an earlier test of the 1.0317-25 resistance.

1 .0021-58

0 .9950-70

I cau t i ous l y re ta i n a bea r i sh ou t l ook fo r l osses be low 1 .0155 to t r i gge r fo l l ow - t h rough t o 1 .0105 and 1 .0082

1 .0155

1 .0140

1 .0105

1 .0082

Resistance

1 .0376

1 .0317

1 .0271

1 .0241

1 .0218

1 .0180

S uppor t

USDCAD Pr ice 6 th June 2008

5 th June :

The direct rally to the 1.0190 target suggests that we may

have seen a 261.8% projection in Wave (iii). This comes from

the fact that I feel the 0.9817 low was a larger daily Wave (ii)

and thus we should see a move back to the 1.0325-76 are in

Wave (a) of Wave (iii). This should imply a 5-wave rally and

thus we should now see Wave (iv) correct around 38.2%-

41.4% to 1.0035-50 before higher again.

6 th June

I am treating the additional move to 1.0218 as a slightly

different extension in Wave iii and thus the correciton in Wave

iv should be at a minimum 41.4% retracement at 1.0105 and

probably the 50% retracement at 1.0082. Also note the 58.6%

retracement at 1.0058.


9/9

165 . 35

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSD

USDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

Bias

Tra i l i ng S top

RSI

1

M ed te rm

Bear ish

6 th June : I still feel a cap is imminent but would like to see this confirmed. A break below 164.46

would assist while below 161.73 provides the final confirmation. W e a p p e ar t o h a v e j u s t m e t a m a j o r m o n t h l yh igh w h ich imp l ies a la rge pu l lback

Given yesterday's burst higher we should be cautious of the downside unless there is a stronger

signal. Note resistance at 165.83-88 and 166.65-71. Only a stronger reaction from one of these

resistance points back below 164.96 and 164.46 would probably lead to additional losses.


Dai ly Bear ish


L o w e r- w i th losses expected to con t inue fo r

a l i t t l e wh i le ye t

I an Copsey 2008

El l io t t Wave :

6 th June :

Yesterday's rally obviously requires a rethink. I can see a wave

equality target in Wave (c) at 167.55-60 but within the daily

chart a 76.4% projection in a large triangle suggests an initial

barrier at 165.83-88. Thus I prefer to wait an observe to see

how the next move comes. Within the recovery from 161.73 I

can also see a potential 76.4% projection at 166.34 while a

stronger internal 176.4% projection in Wave iii rests at 166.56-

71.

Back below pivot supports at 164.96 and 164.46 would hasten

a retreat to the Wave (b) low at 161.73.

The move back above 162.65 followed by163.20-28 triggered aggressive gains that have burst

above the old 1.6446 and 164.96 highs. I am slightly uncertain of the wave structure but note that

momentum is generally strained. Never-the-less I suspect we should see a minimum move to

165.83-88 while I cannot rule out a test of 166.56-71. While this is posisble the 164.90-20 area

should ideally hold.

4-Hour Momentum

Dai ly Bu l l i sh


Ove rbough t


Di rec t ion and t im ingMed Term

Bul l i sh

6 th June : Yesterday sw a burst back above the 164.96 high. I feel we should be careful at 165.83-

88 which could cap. Only above extends to 166.56-71 and beyond there to 167.55-60.

163 .00 -20

162 .60

Mi xed - w a i t i ng fo r b reaks

RSI Bea r ish d ive rgence

Lower

164 .95

164 .50

164 .20

163 .70

Resistance

167 .02

166 .56 -71

166 .34

165 .88

165 .64

165 .36

S uppor t

EURJPY Pr ice 6 th June 2008

the daily forecaster sample2

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