the current state of the research evidence since martinson ... · funded a portfolio of...

Does anything work to reduce crime? The Current State of the Research EvidenceSince Martinson’s “Nothing Works” (1979)

A Presentation to The Sentencing Guidelines Commission

Burien, WA June 9, 2017

Elizabeth K. DrakeSenior Supervisory Research Associate

Washington State Institute for Public [email protected]

www.wsipp.wa.gov

Policy in WAResultsTrends / ApproachWSIPP

Legislative Directives to Study: Child Welfare Crime Developmental Disabilities Education Employment/Workforce Housing Mental Health Public Assistance Public Health Prevention Substance Abuse Teen Births

Washington State Institute for Public PolicyCreated by 1983 Legislature

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Who we are: Non–partisan staff with bi-partisan governance.

Projects assigned via legislative bills or Board of Directors.

What we do:

What works?

What are the costs & benefits of policies to improve outcomes?

Policy in WAResultsWSIPP Trends / Approach

Crime: Big PictureCrime Rates & Taxpayer Costs in Washington: 1980 to 2013

Percent change relative to 1980*

In 2015, crime rates were 44% lower than they were in 1980.

In 2007, taxpayers spent 116% more on the criminal justice system than in 1980.

In recent years, costs have begun to decline.

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

1980 1990 2000 2010* Per capita, dollar estimates are inflation adjusted.

Taxpayer costs

Crime

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1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

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Inca

rcer

atio

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te*

United States

Washington

* Per 1,000 people.

Crime: Big PictureIncarceration Rates in Washington and the US

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1. What works to improve outcomes?Outcomes → crime, education, substance abuse, etc.We identify programs that have already been rigorouslytested (WA or elsewhere) to determine the program achieves expected outcomes.

2. What pays off for taxpayers? We compute benefits, costs, and risk (return on investment) to the people of Washington for each policy option.

3. How can a “portfolio” of options affect statewide outcomes? How much risk of failure?

WSIPP’s Three-Step Research Approach

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The Washington State Legislature has asked, “What programs or policies improve outcomes at less cost?”

www.wsipp.wa.gov


Cognitive Behavioral TherapyReduces Recidivism by 4 Percentage Points

W

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Follow-up Years

Without Cognitive Behavioral TherapyCognitive Behavioral Therapy

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Reci

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Benefit-Cost analysis asks, “What’s the monetary savings to taxpayers & crime victims from a reduction in recidivism?”

Policy in WATrends / ApproachWSIPP Results

% Point Change in Crime (# of Studies)

Per Participant Net Benefits(Chance WA won’t break even)

Drug courts -10% (72) $9,218 (<1%)Correctional Education (basic skills) -5% (7) $10,827 (2%)Cognitive behavioral therapy -4% (42) $7,422 (<1%)

Domestic violence tx (Duluth) +1% (7) -$3,623 (77%)

Multisystemic Therapy -4% (11) $11,102 (16%)

Adult Programs

Juvenile Programs*

Pre-School* (low income) -9% (17*) $34,424 (11%)Mentoring* (school-based) -1% (5*) $26,747 (27%)

Prevention Programs*

Functional Family Therapy -10% (8) $27,322 (<1%)

Work release -1% (9) $4,806 (<1%)

Scared Straight +5% (10) -$9,477 (96%)

* Programs have a number of other non-crime benefits; all benefits reported here.

Benefit-Cost Results (www.wsipp.wa.gov/BenefitCost)What works to reduce crime? (2016 US dollars)

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Policy in WATrends / ApproachWSIPP Results

What works in the criminal justice system?WSIPP’s Findings Based on Rigorous Research

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Corrections/Courts Of the adult programs WSIPP has reviewed …

53 percent show statistically significant reductions in recidivism, and

64 percent had benefits likely to outweigh their costs. Prison Policy/Sentencing• Prison is an effective strategy to reduce crime. The impact,

however, depends on who is incarcerated (i.e., risk level).• Earned early release time is an evidence-based strategy

resulting in about $2 in net benefits per dollar of cost.Police• Policing is an effective strategy to reduce crime, generating

about $5 in benefits per dollar of cost.

ResultsTrends / ApproachWSIPP Policy in WA

Core Correctional Practices: Risk AssessmentRecidivism Rates for Offenders Released From Prison (1993-2011)

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0%

10%

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36-M

onth

Fel

ony

Reco

nvic

tion

Among moderate risk offenders released from prison in 1993, 29 percent were reconvicted for a new felony within 36-months. For the 2011 cohort, 22 percent were reconvicted.

’93 ‘97 ‘03 ’07 ‘11

Moderate High Non-Violent High ViolentLow’93 ‘97 ‘03 ’07 ‘11 ’93 ‘97 ‘03 ’07 ‘11 ’93 ‘97 ‘03 ’07 ‘11


Is WSIPP Evidence Used by Policymakers?A Timeline of Recent, Major Legislative Actions

Funded a portfolio of evidence-based programs (EBP) in adult and juvenile corrections, and prevention. 2000 bed, $250 Million, prison avoided.

WSIPP provides an annual “step adjustment” to the Caseload Forecast Council to account for this investment in EBPs at DOC.

DOC must use a risk assessment with the highest accuracy (see WSIPP report).

Adult corrections “inventory” – required WSIPP to define EBP and required DOC to (1) facilitate the use of EBPs and (2) phase-out ineffective programs.

Further directed DOC to use EBPs and follow the Risk Needs Responsivity model.

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2007…

2009

2013

2015


WA’s Investment in Evidence-Based ProgramsThe Cumulative Effect on The Need for Prison Beds

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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24,000

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Daily

Priso

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As of 2016, there are about 1,600 fewer people in prison as a result of Washington’s evidence-based adult, juvenile, & prevention programs. These effects are reflected in the prison bed forecast.

Actual prison Average Daily Population

Forecasted Population

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Thank you!Questions?

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