the crossover between life expectancies and ... - demografi.dk filelife expectancy • life...

Vladimir Canudas-Romo

Stan Becker Michal Engelman

The Crossover Between Life Expectancies

and Their Record Values

Life expectancy

• Life expectancy at birth is the most frequently used and best-known measure of the length of life of a population.

• Its use as a summary indicator of population health was propagated in the 1920s and 1930s.

(Dublin 1923; Dublin and Lotka 1934)

Life expectancy

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

020

4060

80

Year

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

Life Expectancy for Countries Included in the HMD, 1751−2007.

Life expectancy

• However:

Life expectancy at birth is heavily dependent on events in early life. Its time series alone is not well suited for studying the length of life for aging populations, because potentially important stages of mortality change can not be distinguish.

Kannisto (2001)

Life expectancy

Life expectancy at other ages

• But it is not alone:

Life expectancy at age “x” is defined as “the average number of additional years that a survivor to age x will live beyond that age”.

(Preston et al. 2001)

Life expectancy by age

Figure 1. Life Expectancy by Age for the Icelandic Total Population in 2000.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110Age

Life

exp

ecta

ncy

by a

ge

2000

Source: Human Mortality Database (2008).

Life expectancy

“As a rule, the expectation of life decreases as age increases, with the exception of the first year of life where the reverse is true because of the high mortality during the first year.”

Chiang (1984: 118)

Life expectancy

Figure 1. Life Expectancy by Age for the Icelandic Total Population in 1860, 1900, 1950 and 2000.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110Age

Life

exp

ecta

ncy

by a

ge

1860190019502000


Research Interests

1. Relation between the functions of the life table at the crossing in life expectancies.

2. The timing of the crossing in life expectancies: comparison between and within populations.

Research Interest

Data

Five data bases:

1. Human Mortality Database 2. Berkeley Mortality Database3. United Nations, yearbook for 20084. WHO, mortality data for 2008 5. CDC, USA life tables 1980-2006

Data

Life expectancy

?)()( 10 tete =

Figure 2. Life Expectancies at Birth (e0) and at Age One (e1) for the Swedish Total Population from 1850 to 2005.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000Year

e0 a

nd e

1

e0e1


Life expectancy

)()(

11 te

tmo

=

)t(e)t(e 10 =

Figure 2. Life Expectancies at Birth (e0) and at Age One (e1) and the Inverse of the Infant Mortality (1/1m0) for the Swedish Total

Population from 1850 to 2005.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000Year

e0 a

nd e

1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1/1m

0

e0e11/1m0

Source: Human Mortality Database (2008). Only values of inverse infant mortality below 90 are shown.

Research Interests


Results 1) Common trends in crossing in life expectancies

2) Current situation in the world3) Record maximum remaining life expectancy4) Subpopulations comparison in the USA

Research Interest

Figure 3. Life Expectancy at Birth at Year of the First Crossing with Life Expectancy at Age One, Total Population by Country.

ISL

FIN

JPN

DNK

LUX

CHE

TWN

CANENW

NZL

FRG

ESP

USA

AUT

EST

BLR

RUS

SWENLDNOR

FRAAUS

BEL

GDR

ITA

LVA

LTUSVN

CZE SVKBGR

PRT

UKR

HUN

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

Life

exp

ecta

ncy

at b

irth

& a

t age

one

Source: Human Mortality Database (2008); Table 1 has the countries 3-letter digits.

Research Interests




Research Interest

Figure 5a. Infant Mortality Rate and Life Expectancy at Birth for Countries Members of the WHO and UN, and Not Included in the HMD, Latest Available

Information from WHO and UN.

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180Infant Mortality Rate

Life

exp

ecta

ncy

at b

irth

Life expectancy crossing (e0=e1)EUROPE

Source: United Nations (2008) and World Health

Figure 5a. Infant Mortality Rate and Life Expectancy at Birth for Countries Members of the WHO and UN, and Not Included in the HMD, Latest

Available Information from WHO and UN.

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Infant Mortality Rate

Life

exp

ecta

ncy

at b

irth

Life expectancy crossing (e0=e1)AFRICAAMERICAASIAEUROPE

Source: United Nations (2008) and World Health

Research Interests




Research Interest

Figure. Country Holders of the Female Record Life Expectancy at Birth and the Best Fitting Line from 1840-2005.

40

50

60

70

80

90

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Years

Mod

al, m

edia

n an

d lif

e ex

pect

ancy

40

50

60

70

80

90

AUS BLR ISL DNK NOR

SWE CHE CAN NZL JPN

Source: Human Mortality Database; Note: AUS=Australia, BLR=Belarus, Can=Canada, DNK=Denmark, ISL=Iceland, JPN=Japan, NOR=Norway, NZL= New Zealand, SWE=Sweden, CHE=Switzerland.

Annette

Typewritten Text

Oeppen & Vaupel (2002)

Figure 1. Life Expectancy by Age for the Icelandic Total Population in 1860, 1900, 1950 and 2000.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110Age

Life

exp

ecta

ncy

by a

ge

1860190019502000


Life expectancyRecord LE, e0

)(max)( 00 tete i

i=

Life expectancyMaximum remaining LE, em

)(max)( tete imim =

1850 1900 1950 2000

02

46

810

Year

Diff

eren

ce b

etw

een

reco

rd e

xpec

tanc

ies (e

rx−

e 0)

Figure 4. Difference between record life expectancy at birth (e0)and record remaining life expectancy (erx)

Age of erx

AGE 0AGE 1AGE 2AGE 3AGE 4AGE 5AGE 6

1850 1900 1950 2000

4050

6070

80

Year

Life

exp

ecta

ncy

Figure 5. Countries holding the record life expectancy at birth (e0)and the record total expected longevity (eT) for the total population

AUSTRALIADENMARKICELANDJAPANNETHERLANDSNEW−ZEALANDNORWAYSWEDEN

eT

e0

Research Interests




Research Interest

Figure 6. Infant Mortality and Life Expectancy at Birth for American Females and Males by Race (White & Black), 1968.

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

0

Life

exp

ecta

ncy

(e0)

White Females

White Males

Black Females

Black Males

Source: BMDB(2009) & CDC (1984-2006).

Figure 6. Infant Mortality and Life Expectancy at Birth for American Females and Males by Race (White & Black), 1968.

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

0 10 20 30 40 50

Infant Mortality

Life

exp

ecta

ncy

(e0)

White FemalesWhite MalesBlack FemalesBlack MalesLife expectancy crossing (e0=e1)

Source: BMDB(2009) & CDC (1984-2006).

Figure 6. Infant Mortality and Life Expectancy at Birth for American Females and Males by Race (White & Black), 1968-1973.

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

0 10 20 30 40 50

Infant Mortality

Life

exp

ecta

ncy

(e0)

White FemalesBlack FemalesWhite MalesBlack MalesLife expectancy crossing (e0=e1)

Source: BMDB(2009) & CDC (1984-2006).


40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

0 10 20 30 40 50

Infant Mortality

Life

exp

ecta

ncy

(e0)


Source: BMDB(2009) & CDC (1984-2006).

Discussion

To assess the mortality situation of a population it is

important to consider several measures of mortality in

conjunction, e.g. the level of e0 respect to e1 or with

infant mortality. Following the latter relationship the

physical quality-of-life index (infant mortality, e1 and

education) is more suited for comparison than the

more popular Human Development Index (e0,

education and GDP).

During the demographic transition mortality between

ages one and five declined before mortality in the first

year of life, followed by a second phase of decline

where mortality in infancy declined faster than in the

later childhood years (Hill 1995). This historical

process of mortality reductions, is well captured in this

research of life expectancies at different ages and the

convergence of the two record expectancy measures.

Discussion

Our findings show that a substantial difference

between and the maximum lifespan (e0 and at other

ages) existed throughout most of the 19th and 20th

centuries both in individual countries and for the

global record holders.

Discussion

Basing the “best-practice” designation on a measure

so dependent on mortality in the first year of life as life

expectancy may be problematic. However, the fact

that the same group of countries also holds the record

remaining life expectancy offers some support to the

“best-practice” idea originated by Oeppen and Vaupel

(2002).

Discussion

The Crossover BetweenLife Expectancies

and Their Record Values

Thank you!

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