the cost of coastal zone environmental degradation in northern lebanon marseilles june 29-30, 2009
TRANSCRIPT
THE COST OF COASTAL ZONE THE COST OF COASTAL ZONE ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION
IN NORTHERN LEBANONIN NORTHERN LEBANON
Marseilles June 29-30, 2009
BackgroundBackground
The Lebanese Coast is characterized by:
• Drivers: growth-trade-globalization nexus, poverty, urbanization, population, tourism, etc.
• Competing uses along the narrow corridor: urbanization; tourism; industrialization; fisheries, multimodal transport corridor, conservation, etc.
• Pressures: urban sprawl and artificialization; mass tourism; industrial, urban and energy emissions and discharges; overfishing; water pollution and agricultural runoffs; ecosystem service fragilization, etc.
BackgroundBackground
• Potential climate change vulnerability and natural disaster risks• Unresolved Public Maritime Domain violation• Artificialization reached ± 45% of the total coast with a +2% growth pa (MoE)• Internal migration to the coast• Potential offshore gas extraction will require coastal infrastructure Coastal Urban Sprawl Trend 1995-2025
(as percentage of Total Coastal Area)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Greece France Italy Spain Egypt Lebanon
Selected Mediterranean Countries
(%)
1995
2025
BackgroundBackground
There is however a number of opportunities to improve the coastal management:• The land use planning (Schema Directeur) was approved by the Council of Ministers and is about to be implemented by CDR in conjunction with other line ministers
• The CDR is about to launch a CZ Action Plan
• Lebanon is bound by Regional Laws but that are not fully complied with: Barcelona Convention and the ICZM Protocol, Horizon 2020, Union for the Mediterranean, etc.
Background: What and How?Background: What and How?• The COED is a quantitative tool that helps
derive order of magnitude by: valuing environmental degradation and proposing investments to reduce environmental degradation
• The COED helps optimize the trade-offs between economic development and growth; population well being; and the preservation of the environment
• The COED helps therefore decision-makers make informed and efficient choices
Objective and Study Scope Objective and Study Scope Gauge the political economy of improving the management of the northern coastal zone by:
- Valuing the coastal environmental degradation and remedial actions
- Suggesting policy reforms
SMAP III TA and University of Balamand
Drivers and PressuresDrivers and PressuresCoastal Population: 413,000 to 567,000Density: 1,080-7,855 population/km2
Northern Population 1997-2030: +41%GDP net growth: +6% (04) +2% (05-11)Urbanization: 74%; air, solid/liquid wasteModal Transport: roads, ports and airportIndustrialization: cement, fertilizers & plasticTrade: Tripoli port serving the hinterlandTourism: 42 beaches, resorts and hotelsFisheries: unsustainable practicesExtraction: salt marshes: a dying activityAgriculture: land erosion, water qualityWatersheds: municipal effluents; runoffMountain: deforestation; terrace collapse
Aggregate Results
Ranking COED 2000 vs. CCZED 2005 Categories (% of GDP)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
National 2000 Northern Coastal Zone 2005
Degradation Category Ranking
% o
f G
DP
Solid wasteGlobal environmentSoil and wildlifeCoastal zones & cultural heritage
AirWater
Aggregate Results
CCZED Degradation, Averted and Remedial Costs by Category, 2005(US$ million)
-139-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
DegradationCost Midpoint
AvertedCost
RemedialCost
Subsidy
Category
US
$ m
illio
n
Global environment
Solid wasteSoil and wildlife
Coastal zones & cultural heritageAir
Water
Aggregate Results by Casa
Northern Coastal Casa Environmental Valuation, 2005 (US$ Million)
-141-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Deg
rada
tion
Ave
rted
Rem
edia
l
Sub
sidy
Deg
rada
tion
Ave
rted
Rem
edia
l
Sub
sidy
Deg
rada
tion
Ave
rted
Rem
edia
l
Sub
sidy
Deg
rada
tion
Ave
rted
Rem
edia
l
Sub
sidy
Deg
rada
tion
Ave
rted
Rem
edia
l
Sub
sidy
Akkar Minieh-Dennieh Al Fayhaa Koura BatrounCategory per Casa
US
$ m
illio
n
Biodiversity
Water Resources
Land Use
Regional Waters
Air
Aggregate Results by Efficiency
Maximizing Economic Welfare through Prioritized Yearly Investments, 2005(US$ Million)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Indu
stria
l Air
Bio
dive
rsity
Urb
an A
ir
Coa
stal
Con
serv
atio
nvs
. Rib
bon
Dev
elop
men
t
Qua
rry
Dis
char
gean
d E
fflue
nts
Soi
l Sal
inity
Glo
bal
Ext
erna
litie
s
Sol
id W
aste
Coa
stal
Ero
sion
Tou
rism
and
Cul
tura
lA
sset
s
Wat
er a
ndS
anita
tion
Ser
vice
s
Fis
herie
s
Indo
or A
ir
Ene
rgy
Air
Category
US
$ m
illi
on
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
B/C
Rat
io
Degradation Cost
Averted Cost
B/C
CCZED Results: AirCCZED Results: Air
Northern Coastal Environmental Degradation and Remedial Cost for Air Pollution per year: WHO Thresholds, 2005
(US$ Million)
-0.1
2-0
.13
0.07
0.16
-14
1
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
GHG GlobalExternalities
Indoor Air Industrial Air Energy Air Urban Air
Category
(US
$ M
illi
on
)
Degradation Cost
Averted Cost
Remedial Cost
Carbon Funding
Power Generation
CCZED Results: Regional CCZED Results: Regional WatersWaters
Regional Waters Costs and Subsidies: Outfall Only, 2005 (US$ Million)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Degradation Cost Averted Cost Remedial Cost SubsidyCategory
US
$ m
illio
n
Selaata LCC
Chekka Wastew ater
Batroun Wastew ater
Akkar Wastew ater
Fayhaa Wastew ater
Regional Waters Costs and Subsidies: Secondary Treatment, 2005 (US$ Million)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Degradation Cost Averted Cost Remedial Cost SubsidyCategory
US
$ m
illio
n
Selaata LCC
Chekka Wastew ater
Batroun Wastew ater
Akkar Wastew ater
Fayhaa Wastew ater
Regional Waters Costs and Subsidies: Tertiary Treatment 1/4 Cap., 2005
(US$ Million)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Degradation Cost Averted Cost Remedial Cost SubsidyCategory
US
$ m
illio
n
Selaata LCCChekka Wastew aterBatroun Wastew aterAkkar Wastew aterFayhaa Wastew ater
Regional Waters Costs and Subsidies: Tertiary Treatment Full Cap., 2005 (US$ Million)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Degradation Cost Averted Cost Remedial Cost SubsidyCategory
US
$ m
illi
on
Selaata LCCChekka Wastew aterBatroun Wastew aterAkkar Wastew aterFayhaa Wastew ater
CCZED Results: Regional CCZED Results: Regional WatersWaters
Creation of a Fisherman Cooperative in El Mina
(US$ million)
-
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
DegradationCost
Averted Cost Remedial Cost Net Fisherman(Producer)
Surplus
Net ConsumerSurplus
Category
(US
$ m
illio
n)
Degradation Cost
Averted Cost
Remedial CostNet Fisherman (P roducer) Surplus
Net Consumer Surplus
CCZED Results: LandwardCCZED Results: Landward
With/Without Coastal Erosion Project per year in 2005(US$ million)
0.1
0
2
4
6
8
Degradation Cost Averted Cost Remedial CostCategory
US
$ m
illi
on
Without Project
With Road
With Soft Structure
With Hard Structure
CCZED Results: LandwardCCZED Results: Landward
Conservation vs. Ribbon Development, 2005 (US$ Million)
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Forgone Welfare Averted Cost Remedial Cost
Category
US
$ m
illio
n
Real Estate
Hotel
Real Estate and Hotel
Akkar Coast
Lido di Dante Coast
CCZED Results: LandwardCCZED Results: Landward
Benefits Associated with Tripoli Old City Restoration Investment, 2005 (US$ Million)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Forgone Revenues Incremental Revenues Remedial CostCategory
US
$
Museilha-Hamat Quarry, 2005 (US$ million)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Degradation Cost Averted Cost Remedial CostCategory
US
$ m
illio
n Degradation Cost
Averted Cost
Remedial Cost
CCZED Results: LandwardCCZED Results: Landward
Waste Costs and Subsidies 2005 (US$ million)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Degradation Cost Averted Cost Remedial Cost SubsidyCategory
(US
$ m
illi
on
)
Batroun
Koura
Fayhaa and Qalamoun
Minieh Dennieh
Akkar
Northern Coast Waste Analysis, 2005 (US$ per capita per year)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
GlobalSustainability
SustainableManagement
Cost
DwellerAffordability
EnvironmentalBenefits
Personal Benefits
AltruisticPrinciples
Marginal Demand Curve for Waste Services
US
$
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
US
$
Waste Service Demand
Actual Waste Cost (Al Fayhaa)
Actual Collected Waste Fee (Northern Coast)
Budgeted Waste Cost (Northern Coast)
CCZED Results: Water CCZED Results: Water ResourcesResources
Water Costs, Tariffs and Subsidies per capita per year, 2005 (US$)
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
P rimarily Truck Delivery P rimarily Village Reservoir P rimarily Network Connection P rimarily WellWater Supply Curve
US
$
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Single Source
Double Sources
Triple Sources
Dweller Average Total Expenditure
Budgeted Water Tariff
Actual Water Tariff Collected
WTP to Improve Water Services per Capita per Year (US$)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Quality 24 h Provision Pressure Provision Schedule
Improvement
US
$
WTP Water
WTP to Improve Sanitation Services per Capita per year (US$)
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sew er Netw ork Connection Open Netw ork Sew er Septic Tank Clean up
Improvement
US
$
WTP Sanitation
CCZED Results: Water CCZED Results: Water ResourcesResources
Water and Sewer Network and Hygiene Costs and Subsidies, 2005 (US$ million)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Degradation CostCV Method
Degradation CostDALY Method
Degradation CostMidpoint
Averted CostCV Method
Remedial CostCDR Investments
Subsidy Based onActual Tarif fs
Category
US
$ m
illio
n
Batroun
Fayhaa
Minieh-Dennieh
Akkar
CCZED Results: Soil SalinityCCZED Results: Soil Salinity
Northern Coastal Soil Salinity, 2005 (US$ million)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Degradation Cost Averted Cost Remedial Cost
Category
US
$ m
illio
n
Batroun
Koura
Tripoli
Minieh-Dennieh
Akkar
CCZED Results: Policy CCZED Results: Policy ImplicationImplication
There is an important opportunity to implement some key interventions, which could not only reap significant economic gains, but also be considered climate change adaptive response Air: switching to cleaner fuel for energy and capturing carbon emissions.• Regional waters: ending the discharge of industrial and municipal effluents that are increasing the acidification of the sea: win-win• Coastal erosion: sea-level rise adaptation• Positive effects on ecosystem services
Policy and Institutional Policy and Institutional ImplicationImplicationResults will feed into the CEA
Reactivation the ICZM process and harmonization with the Schema Directeur:
• Laws (revised the ICZM draft law based on a number of good practice) and stakeholder forum
• Institutions, decentralization and governance in conjunction with the Scema Directeur implementation
• Instruments (PPP, green taxes, conservatoire du littoral, perequazione urbanistica, incentives)
• Climate change vulnerability & natural disaster risk (Adaptation, resilience and mitigation)