Marine Monitoring

Impl

emen

ted

by

Marie Drévillon, Mercator Oceanon behalf of the Copernicus Marine Service team

T h e C o p e r n i c u s M a r i n e S e r v i c e C M E M S

g l o b a l a n d r e g i o n a l o c e a n r e a n a l y s e s

Towards a consistent set of high resolution ocean reanalysesfor operational oceanography users and ocean state monitoring

Marine Monitoring

O v e r v i e w

The Copernicus Marine Service: a set of global and regional high resolutionocean reanalyses

Results from the Copernicus Marine Service reanalyses

Ongoing work on uncertaintycharacterisation

Marine Monitoring

T h e C o p e r n i c u s M a r i n e S e r v i c e i n a n u t s h e l l

• A network of European producers

From different European countries A large span of products and state-of-the-art European operational Products

• A central information system to search, view, download products and monitor the system• Currently ~7000 users worldwide

• A unique catalogue of observations, reanalyses, near-real-time analyses and forecasts of the blue, white and green ocean ~150 numerical products

http://marine.copernicus.eu

Marine Monitoring

C M E M S p o r t o f o l i o g a t h e r s 1 4 m a r i n e p a r a m e t e r s

PARAMETER MODEL SATELLITE (surface ocean)

INSITU

25years in the past Today 10-day forecast 25years in the past

Today 25years in the past Today

Sea Surface Height x x x x x x x

Temperature X X X X X X X

Salinity X X X X X

Waves X X X

Currents/velocity X X X X X

Mixed Layer Depth x x x x x

Sea ice X X X X X

Turbidity/Transparency X X

Reflectance X X

Nutrients x x x x

Primary Production X X X x

Oxygen X X X x

Plankton x x x x

Wind X X

Marine Monitoring

C M E M S g a t h e r s 1 6 o c e a n r e a n a l y s e s

1 PHY1 BIO

2 PHY1 BIO

1 PHY 1 BIO

1 PHY1 BIO

2 PHY1 BIO

1 PHY1 BIO

1 PHY1 BIO ¼° daily

1° multi(4)-reana

1955-2015 AMIP 1987-2015 ERAi

Current status: • Altimetry era 1993-now• Ocean Colour ERA for BIO 1997-now• High resolution (<10km) in regions• 80% use NEMO platform• 3DVAR, SEEK + 3DVAR, EnKF …• 80% assimilate SST SLA and in situ (+ sea ice)• 30% BIO assimilate Ocean Colour

Marine Monitoring

C M E M S g a t h e r s 1 6 o c e a n r e a n a l y s e s

1 PHY1 BIO

2 PHY1 BIO

1 PHY 1 BIO

1 PHY1 BIO

2 PHY1 BIO

1 PHY1 BIO

1 PHY1 BIO

Main objectives : • Altimetry era 1993-now• High resolution (<5 km) models• Optimal use of obs. network• Consistency with RT analysis• (DA) BIO coupled or forced by PHY• Agreement on validation metrics• Maximum consistency in between regions• Maximum cross use of CMEMS products

See strategy document on marine.copernicus.eu

Marine Monitoring

T h e 7 m o n i t o r i n g a n d f o r e c a s t i n g c e n t e r s

Marine Monitoring

T h e C M E M S O c e a n S t a t e R e p o r t

Written by 80 scientific experts from more than 25 European institutions, peer reviewed publication, the first ocean state report is a step forward into the development of regular annual reporting on the state and health of the global ocean and European regional seas

based on Copernicus Marine Service products.

More information:http://marine.copernicus.eu/science-learning/ocean-state-report/ocean-

state-report-2016-1st-issue/

Issue #2 under review

Including CCI productsdisseminated by

CMEMS

Marine Monitoring

E v a l u a t i o n o f o c e a n r e a n a l y s e s

RMS < 0.3 m.s-1

Underestimation of EUC (Equatorial Under Current)Continuous improvement since the beginning of GLORYS-> data assimilation & mean dynamic topography

Independent current meters from TAO/TRITON (in situ TAC)

V3

CurrentV4

OBS

See poster by Garric et al.

Marine Monitoring

H i g h r e s o l u t i o n g l o b a l r e a n a l y s i s G L O R Y S 1 2First results from GLORYS12SLA horizontally averaged residual = observation – analysis RMS differences

GLO ¼°NRT

GLO 1/12°V1 NRT GLO 1/12°

V2 NRT

GLORYS 1/12°RAN (1993-2013)

GLO 1/12°V3 NRT

2007-now

J1 J2

GLORYS ¼°RAN (1993-2013)

See poster by Lellouche et al.

Marine Monitoring

H i g h r e s o l u t i o n I B l r e a n a l y s i s v s G L O R Y S

Comparisons with CMEMS regional reanalyses : upgraded physics and higher resolution improve physical processes-> Continuous improvement « feedback loop » between CMEMS regional and global reanalyses-> towards higher resolution in both regional and global reanalyses

SSH low frequency correlation at tide gauges

IBIRYS 1/12°GLORYS ¼°

JUNMAYAPR

IBIRYS

GLORYS

Observation of Biscay Coastal jets fromBatifoulier et al (2012)

2002Courtesy of Bruno Levier

Marine Monitoring

H i g h r e s o l u t i o n B A L r e a n a l y s i s v s o b s e r v a t i o n s

Bottom Bio simulation at BY5(55.25,15.98)

Averaged Bio simulation during the period 1993-2016 at BY15(57.33, 20.05)

Courtesy of Liu Ye et al

Marine Monitoring

M E D s e a r e a n a l y s i s

1/16° physical reanalysis starting in (CMCC)

Biogeochemical reanalysis with assimilation of Ocean Colour observations (OGS)

Courtesy of C. Fratianni et al

Long term: higher resolutioncoupling with Black Sea reanalysis

Marine Monitoring

U n c e r t a i n t y c h a r a c t e r i s a t i o n

Intercomparison/validation to assess uncertainties among ocean reanalyses (model errors and bias, observing system reliability over time)

• GODAE/CLIVAR/GSOP ORA-IP, Balmaseda et al (2015) JOO • Multi ORA NRT intercomparison, Xue et al (2017) Clim. Dyn.• CMEMS multi-reanalysis ensemble product GREP based on ORCA025

GLORYS/C-GLORS (CMCC)/GLOSEA5 (UKMO)/ORAS5 (ECMWF) • Intercomparison of high resolution reanalyses is planned (HYCOM and

GLORYS12)• Evaluation of Ocean Syntheses COST Action http://eos-cost.eu

Ensemble modelling and data assimilation:• Stochastic perturbations• ensemble data assimilation GLORYS (at ¼°) planned for 2020

Marine Monitoring

A s s e s s i n g u n c e r t a i n t i e s o n O M I s w i t h G R E P

Figures and results from the Ocean State Report #2, under review at JOO

Heat content using GREP ensemble mean + CORA + ARMOR3D shading = where signal > spread

See poster by Storto et al (steric height), and Drevillon et al (T, S, U, V)

See poster by Jackson et al. (AMOC), and Zuo et al (SeaIce)

Marine Monitoring

A s s e s s i n g u n c e r t a i n t i e s a t r e g i o n a l s c a l e

• Intercomparisons in progress on commonregions : – IBI/MED– NWS/BAL– GLO/ARC

Multi-reanalysis productusing up to 6 product on the NWS area1 NWS, 1 IBI, 2 IMR, 1 PML, 1 NOC

Courtesy of M. Tonani et al

Marine Monitoring Global and regional reanalyses and uncertainty estimates are available from the

Copernicus Marine Service CMEMS• Powerful tool for ocean monitoring• necessary reference for all NRT applications• Towards more consistency with NRT analyses (HR, observing system shape) -> requested by

CMEMS users

Intercomparison and ensemble approaches are favored to provide uncertaintyestimates, international HR reanalyses intercomparisons are planned

Short to mid term perspectives: higher resolution , more assimilation of Ocean Colourobservations, reanalyses for waves

Many challenges (high resolution atmospheric forcing, ocean-atmosphere-wave-icecoupling, river runoffs, extension in the past, climate monitoring) to be tackled in partnership with Climate Change Service

More details on our posters (GLORYS 1/12°, GREP etc.) !

C o n c l u s i o n s

http://www.eos-cost.eu

Earth System Science and Environmental Management

A COST Action to improve the coordination of European efforts in the evaluation of ocean syntheses:

better understanding of the value and use of ocean syntheses promote the use of ocean syntheses

Chairs:Aida Alvera-Azcárate (University of Liège, BE)Keith Haines (University of Reading, UK)

a.alvera@ulg.ac.be

Marine Monitoring

H i g h r e s o l u t i o n g l o b a l r e a n a l y s i s G L O R Y S 1 2

Marine Monitoring

Longer time series (30 years) [to assess climate trends] Need of reanalysis close to present time Ocean monitoring activities: Ocean State Report, Indicators Need of atmospheric forcing data used in the reanalysis Climatological products derived from the reanalysis products Waves in reanalysis Need of reanalysis compliant and in continuity to real time

products Global reanalysis at a resolution higher than 0.25 degree Guidelines for the use of the multiple reanalysis products

U s e r s ’ r e q u e s t s a b o u t r e a n a l y s e s

Collaboration with C3S

Collaboration with C3S

OSR#1 in 2016

Expected in 2018

Expected in 2018

Continuous improvement of QUIDs, intercomparisons

Expected in 2018

Objective 2020: NRT-1 month in interim mode

Expected in 2018

Marine Monitoring The project started in 2006, led by Nicolas Ferry and Bernard Barnier

(CNRS) Use of NEMO ORCA025 + LIM, strong pan-European collaboration Forced with ERA-interim reanalysis (large scale correction of rainfall and

radiative forcing) and climatological runoffs Multivariate assimilation of SST, SLA, in situ T/S profiles (and

monovariate for Sea Ice since 2011) consistent with what is done for global real time analysis

3D T and S restoring to climatology at Gibraltar strait, Bab el Mandebstrait, and south of 60°S below 2000m

No SSS or SST restoring Focused on the altimetry era: 1992-now Evaluation protocole from GODAE/GSOP/ORA-IP

E x a m p l e o f G L O R Y S g l o b a l r e a n a l y s i s

Marine Monitoring

S u r f a c e e q u i l i b r i u m i n G L O R Y S

Net Mean Surface Heat Uptake :

+ 0.5W.M2

Net Surface Heat FluxesSea Surface Temperaturesurface heat fluxes

trend (-0.3 W.M2) ilargely explained by the

positive evaporation trend (+2.2mm/year).

Trend of evaporation : +2.2 mm/Year.

Trend of surface net heat flux :

-0.3 W.M2/YearComparable to PMWC evap trend

2.35 mm/Year

See poster by Garric et al.