the cloud 2010 workshop presentation (short)...semiconductors • integrated circuit • simple...

Bill Coleman

1 Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman

Inflec&on Points in Human History

Represent expediential increases in the quantity and quality of communication and rate of knowledge creation.

1.  Invention of Language, based on the spoken word.

2.  Invention of the Printing Press, based on the printed word.

3.  Invention of the Cloud and build out of the Web!

… we are at the Inflection Point of the Web based on the commoditization of IT by the Cloud!


Landscape at the Inflec&on Point   Disruptive Innovation has been the basis of IT evolution triggering

successive cycles starting every ten years since about 1960.

  Each cycle formed a new Platform which provided at least an order of magnitude better value for customers and disintermediated those that precede them triggering the innovators dilemma for incumbents.

  Emergence of the Cloud (Mega) Platform as a Utility will be the final disruptive innovation for IT

  The Web (Mega) Platform, will be the basis of disruptive innovation.

  The Web Platform will be the inflection point in human knowledge creation and communication which will transform all aspects of life.

Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman 3

The Informa,on Age Cycles of Innova,on: Mega-‐Pla9orms: The Cloud and The Web

“Predicting the future is pointless, but it is possible to identify trends that have significant effects.” Peter Drucker

Cycles of Innovation (See slides 5 & 13 for detail of the cycles)   Are thirty years long   One starts every 10 years   Cycles include -‐year phases:

1)  Invention, Boom and Bust 2)  Buildout and Consolidation 3)  Commoditization

The Information Age includes six cycles of innovation   Cycles 1 – 3: The Three IT Platforms: 1960 – 2010 The (1) Semiconductor, (2)

Computer and(3) Network Cycles were the three Cycles of IT Evolution.   Cycle 4: The Cloud (Mega) Platform: 1990 – 2020 The Inflection Point where

the Cloud emerges as the ITC “Utility Platform” which is itself disintermediated by the emergency of the Web Platform -‐ the new basis of disruptive innovation.

  Cycles 4 – 6: The Three Web (Mega) Platform Cycles: 1990 – 2040 (4) Reach, (5) Straight-‐thru-‐Processing and (6) Transparency. Enabling the emergence of the “Pull” economy and of “Web Presence ” (the dashboard for life -‐ where physical meets virtual).


Semiconductors •  Integrated circuit •  Simple memory and logic chips ___________

•  Semiconductor Companies

Computers •  Minicomputers •  PCs •  Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________

•  Computer HW & SW Companies

Networks •  Hubs & Routers •  Networking SW

___________

•  Networking Companies

Semiconductors •  Manufacturing Equipment •  Chip design & test tools ______________ •  Semiconductor Companies

Computers •  Software: DBMS Games, Word Processing & Spreadsheets •  MSDOS: Binary Compatibility ______________ •  Computer HW & SW Companies

Networks •  Client/Serve Applications •  Dist Storage: SAN & NAS

______________ •  Networking Companies


•  Semiconductors


•  Computer Systems and Software

Networks •  Hubs & Routers •  Networking SW •  Storage

___________

•  Networking and Storage Systems and Software

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___________


Reach •  WWW •  Distributed Apps •  Ecommerce

___________

•  Internet Applications & Business Models

Straight –Thru-Processing

Transparency





Reach •  Broadband •  Search, SaaS •  Web 2.0 - Social Networking - Dist Co-Creation ___________ Application & Infrastructure Software






___________


Reach •  WWW •  Distributed Apps •  Web 2.0 - Personal Cyber Assistant

____________ •  Internet Applications & Business Models

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Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman

What Is The Cloud?   Its anywhere else but where you are:

  Remote applications and/or data accessed over the net   Services you consume   Something you have used for many years: AOL, Email, Search and a ballooning set of applications and services

 Delivered in three ways: “X”aaA – “X” as a Service   Software Applications (SaaS): SalesForce.com, Google Search or Google Apps, Most Email...

  Infrastructure (IaaS): Compute, Network and Storage metered by capacity consumed on demand; e.g. Amazon, Rackspace…

  Platform (PaaS): IaaS plus proprietary software platform tools and services for application development; e.g. Microsoft, Google and SalesForce.com Cloud services


What Is Driving Cloud Today  Cost savings   “Free” Applications and Services   Scalability on demand   Software development  Hosted mobile applications  Web 2.0 collaboration and localization services  Convergence of mobile and online  Proliferation of new device types  …and more, and more, and more!


The Cloud will be a Disrup&ve PlaAorm 1.   Economic Value:

  Provides an Order-‐of-‐Magnitude better value for customers which justifies their switching cost   Motivates customer urgency and triggers the innovators dilemma for incumbents   Example: The Personal Computer versus the Mini-‐Computer (e.g. DEC versus IBM PC and Clones)   Counter example: IT Automation, incremental improvement, leaders absorbed by legacy providers.

2.   Commoditization:   As a new platform layer it sits on top of all its enabling platform layers, abstracting their capabilities

and isolating them from new value creation   This disintermediation sets off a declining cost-‐driven price cycle which commoditizes suppliers   Example: Microsoft’s victory over Apple illustrates this, although both met the other two properties,

only Microsoft disintermediated and commoditized the PC hardware platform.

3.   Customization:   Customization is the basis of value creation, adds value and provides stickiness   Customization provides the “long tail” of added value that attracts more and more adaptors   Example: Microsoft’s victory over Netscape in the Browser Wars

Platform Dynamics:   Platforms generate a network effect of mass adoption, which in synergy with the long tail of

customizations proceeds in a positive feedback loop. Example: Microsoft’s victory in the PC Wars by becoming the platform for application deployment   Virtualization: Meets none of the platform properties and therefore will be a feature like the browser did,

not a platform (e.g. When Hyper-‐V is embedded, free, “good enough” and transparent as device drivers)


The Cloud will be a U&lity

1.   Isolation of supply & demand: Think AC versus DC Power   Supply scales and prices drop, compete in an open, commodity market   Isolation of ISO Level 7 from Levels 1 – 6 (which will ultimately include

application components)

2.   Metered Billing   Metering on the customer demand based on quantity and quality of service   Customers metered on their usage, not on suppliers internal systems utilization

3.   Customer Ownership and Control   Customers owns their Intellectual Property: Applications (although some can

be leased or used as a service), Process, Workflow and Data.   Customers control their usage (Policy Management) based on their desired

output of their application work flow.\


Evolu&on of The Cloud U&lity PlaAorm   Cloud 1.0: 2000 – 2010, IaaS, PaaS, SaaS

  Application Limitations: Generally proprietary green-‐field, web-‐facing, two-‐tier.   Operational Limitations: External with limited security, reliability, audit, governance.   E.g. Amazon (IaaS), Google (PaaS), Salesforce.com (SaaS)   Neither a Platform nor a Utility (Discrete services)

  Cloud 2.0: 2010 – 2020, The Cloud Platform   Internal clouds become the standard for enterprises (Commoditized Infrastructure)   Connectivity & mobility of applications and data between internal and/or external clouds   CaaS: Client-‐as-‐a-‐Service, online and mobile worlds converge (Quadruple Convergence)   Becomes a Platform but not a Utility!

  Cloud 3.0: 2020 -‐ 2030, Cloud Utility -‐ Commoditization   Final commoditization and consolidation of ICT as utility service providers emerge   Consumer choice, control and ownership; service providers meet “Properties of a Utility”   The end of IT as we know it – Everything As A Service! (Generic IP-‐based services)   Both a Platform and a Utility


Issues for Cogni&ve Disabili&es  Business models  Fundability & Affordability  Lack of standards  Legal  Privacy  Security

Workshop Sessions Will Focus On These Issues







___________


Reach •  WWW •  Distributed Apps •  Ecommerce

___________

•  Internet Applications & Business Models

Straight –Thru-Processing •  WOA/Mashups •  Identity 1.0 •  Cloud 1.0 ___________ •  Web 3.0 Apps and “Pull” business models

Transparency •  Associative data services •  Quantum computing ___________ •  Web 4.0: Web Presence (applications and business models)





Reach •  Broadband •  Search, SaaS •  Web 2.0 - Social Networking - Dist Co-Creation ___________ •  Application & Infrastructure Software

Straight –Thru-Processing •  Web 3.0 “Pull” Internet Commerce •  Identity 2.0 •  Cloud 2.0

•  ICT Industry Providers (Quad Convergence) •  Search and Ad business models

Transparency •  Web 4.0 “Web Presence” •  Identity 3.0 • Self-forming “applications”

•  Pull market economics consolidates the “Push” mass market economy






___________


Reach •  WWW •  Distributed Apps •  Web 2.0 - Personal Cyber Assistant

____________ •  Internet Applications & Business Models

Straight –thru -Processing •  WOA/Mashups •  Identity 3.0 •  Cloud 3.0 •  Web 3.0 - Cyber Proxy ___________

•  Web 3.0 Apps and “Push” business models

Transparency •  Associative data services • Web 4.0 - Cyber Awareness - Physical & Virtual converge ___________ •  Web 4.0: Web Presence (applications and business models)

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Life on the Web in 2040   Web Presence where virtual meets physical and our abilities

transcend our disabilities!

  My Proxy: The self-‐aware proxy for life “My buddy, my alter-‐ego, my mentor and my guardian! A dashboard for life – my world under my control!

  Identity provides security with privacy and civil liberties

  The “Pull” Economy dramatically improves productivity moving most the world into the middle class!

So what comes next? The Dematerialization Age, where Bio meets Nano

Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman

the cloud 2010 workshop presentation (short)...semiconductors • integrated circuit • simple...

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