The Clinton Presidency The Clinton Presidency

““The change The change that I seek… that I seek… isn’t liberal or isn’t liberal or conservative. conservative. It’s different It’s different and it’s and it’s both.”both.”

The Election of 1992The Election of 1992

Main Concern: ECONOMYMain Concern: ECONOMY– RecessionRecession

A period of general economic A period of general economic decline; specifically, a decline decline; specifically, a decline in in GDPGDP for two or more for two or more consecutive quarters. consecutive quarters.

Republican Republican Democrats Democrats

Increasing Increasing incentives for incentives for big and small big and small businesses businesses => expand / => expand / create more create more jobsjobs

Higher taxes Higher taxes on the wealthy, on the wealthy, money into money into transportation, transportation, communication communication networks, networks, education education system system

Bill Clinton’s Economic Bill Clinton’s Economic Proposals Proposals

1.) Increase gov’t spending on 1.) Increase gov’t spending on country’s infrastructurecountry’s infrastructure

2.) Cut taxes for middle class2.) Cut taxes for middle class

3.) Modify welfare system3.) Modify welfare system

4.) Gradually reduce size of 4.) Gradually reduce size of federal gov’t federal gov’t

Clinton Runs into ProblemsClinton Runs into Problems

Questioning his ethicsQuestioning his ethics– WhitewaterWhitewater

Questioning his Questioning his patriotism patriotism – Vietnam WarVietnam War

How do you think How do you think

Bush was attacked?Bush was attacked?

New Style of Campaigning New Style of Campaigning Television Television

–Sell himselfSell himselfWhat candidate took the most What candidate took the most advantage of this?advantage of this?

Clinton: late-night talk show Clinton: late-night talk show playing his saxophone; three playing his saxophone; three nationally televised debatesnationally televised debates

Over traditional party structure Over traditional party structure

Voter AppealsVoter AppealsClinton: 12 yrs. experience as Clinton: 12 yrs. experience as

governor governor Bush: long career of gov’t services, Bush: long career of gov’t services,

first-term successes in foreign first-term successes in foreign policypolicy

Perot: no gov’t experience, ran on Perot: no gov’t experience, ran on business successbusiness success

Voters: which candidate could lead Voters: which candidate could lead nation out of economic decline nation out of economic decline

PartyParty Electoral VoteElectoral Vote % of % of Popular votePopular vote

Democratic: Clinton 370 43.2%Democratic: Clinton 370 43.2%

Republican: Bush 168 37.7%Republican: Bush 168 37.7%

Independent: Perot 0 19.0%Independent: Perot 0 19.0%

Turnout: 55% of eligible voters Turnout: 55% of eligible voters

President Clinton’s Terms President Clinton’s Terms

Health Care ReformHealth Care ReformEconomyEconomyTrade AgreementTrade AgreementForeign PolicyForeign Policy

Health – Care Reform Health – Care Reform

GoalGoal: Offer all Americans : Offer all Americans guaranteed, affordable health guaranteed, affordable health carecare

Televised – the cost of health Televised – the cost of health care was “going to bankrupt care was “going to bankrupt the country”the country”

Health – Care Issues: Health – Care Issues:

Rising CostRising Cost–1972 - $3871972 - $387–1994 - $3, 5101994 - $3, 510–Reasons (3) Reasons (3)

Approx. 39 million ppl. w/ no Approx. 39 million ppl. w/ no health-care insurance health-care insurance

Losing Coverage – Lost Job Losing Coverage – Lost Job

Reform PlansReform Plans

Hillary Rodham ClintonHillary Rodham Clinton–September 1993 introduced September 1993 introduced to Congress as “our most to Congress as “our most urgent priority” urgent priority”

–Universal Coverage Universal Coverage

Clinton and the EconomyClinton and the Economy

Ronald Reagan & Ronald Reagan & “Reaganomics”“Reaganomics”– ? ?

– $ 2 trillion $ 2 trillion –1992 national debt approx. 1992 national debt approx. $ 4 trillion $ 4 trillion

Clinton and the EconomyClinton and the Economy

Reduced deficit by one-third Reduced deficit by one-third between 1992 and 1995between 1992 and 1995– higher taxes on wealthier higher taxes on wealthier AmericansAmericans

– spending cuts – military spending cuts – military – w/out cutting entitlement w/out cutting entitlement programs programs

Clinton and the EconomyClinton and the Economy

Most Effective Tool To Reduce Most Effective Tool To Reduce Deficit: Growing EconomyDeficit: Growing Economy– unemployment decreaseunemployment decrease– inflation remained lowinflation remained low– stock market soared stock market soared

Trade Agreement Trade Agreement

North American Free Trade North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)Agreement (NAFTA)– gradual elimination of tariffs and gradual elimination of tariffs and trade barriers among the three trade barriers among the three nationsnations

– goal: single market of 370 million goal: single market of 370 million ppl. producing and consuming goods ppl. producing and consuming goods and services (compete w/ EU) and services (compete w/ EU)

NAFTA: Arguments NAFTA: Arguments OpposeOppose = = labor labor

unions and unions and environmentalistenvironmentalistss – Businesses -Businesses -

move jobs to move jobs to Mexico Mexico

– Farmers – Farmers – undercut Amer. undercut Amer. goods goods

– Avoid Avoid antipollution law antipollution law

ForFor = = businessesbusinesses – Create JobsCreate Jobs– Lower cost of Lower cost of

goodsgoods– Make US more Make US more

competitivecompetitive

Disagreement over SuccessDisagreement over Success

Exports to Canada risen more Exports to Canada risen more than 33%than 33%

Exports to Mexico only 27%Exports to Mexico only 27%Minimum of 100, 000 jobs lost Minimum of 100, 000 jobs lost

since since

Legislation Successes Legislation Successes

Family Leave ActFamily Leave Act – gives workers up to 12 wks. gives workers up to 12 wks. Of unpaid “family leave” for Of unpaid “family leave” for the birth or adoption of a the birth or adoption of a child or for the illness of a child or for the illness of a family member family member

More…More…

Crime Act (despite opposition Crime Act (despite opposition still passed) still passed) – Increase number of police on Increase number of police on the streetsthe streets

–Build prisonsBuild prisons–Ban 19 assault weaponsBan 19 assault weapons–Crime prevention (ex. Leagues) Crime prevention (ex. Leagues)

The Republican CongressThe Republican CongressNewt GingrichNewt Gingrich

– Contract of Contract of AmericaAmerica A document A document signed by more signed by more than 300 than 300 Republican Republican candidates in candidates in 1994, setting forth 1994, setting forth the Republican’s the Republican’s conservative conservative agenda agenda

Clinton’s Foreign PolicyClinton’s Foreign Policy

Ease instability that had Ease instability that had followed the end of the Cold followed the end of the Cold War. War.

1991 Yugoslavia disintegrate 1991 Yugoslavia disintegrate

- - Pol / Eco explanations Pol / Eco explanations - Bosnian Serbs and “ethnic - Bosnian Serbs and “ethnic

cleansing” cleansing” 1992 Somalia – deadly famine 1992 Somalia – deadly famine

Yugoslavia Yugoslavia Post WWII, for Post WWII, for

about 4.5 about 4.5 decadesdecades– Stability: Stability: Communist Communist (independent), (independent), regime regime international international influence influence

1.) Strong political leadership1.) Strong political leadership

2.) Solid economic performance 2.) Solid economic performance

3.) Potential external threat = 3.) Potential external threat = Soviet UnionSoviet Union

All 3 changedAll 3 changed

1980 – Tito dies 1980 – Tito dies

Economy in decline – inflation Economy in decline – inflation and employment roseand employment rose

USSR – Gorbachev no threat, USSR – Gorbachev no threat, so ethnic groups not together so ethnic groups not together

Yugoslavia: Breakup 1991-1992Yugoslavia: Breakup 1991-1992

- Republic became independent - Republic became independent countries countries

Bosnia-Herzegovina: Civil War Bosnia-Herzegovina: Civil War 1992-19951992-1995

- War among Muslims, Serbs - War among Muslims, Serbs CroatsCroats

- Bloody Civil War: 250,000 deaths - Bloody Civil War: 250,000 deaths

Internati. Perception of Key Internati. Perception of Key Groups Groups Bosnian MuslimsBosnian Muslims: most favored b/c : most favored b/c

‘under-dogs’ / least armed, no ‘ethnic ‘under-dogs’ / least armed, no ‘ethnic big brother,’ want a multi-ethic Bosnia big brother,’ want a multi-ethic Bosnia

Bosnian SerbsBosnian Serbs: want a greater Serbia, : want a greater Serbia, start conflict, most guilty of ethnic start conflict, most guilty of ethnic cleansing cleansing

CroatsCroats (Catholic): want a greater (Catholic): want a greater Croatia; @ time persuaded to join in Croatia; @ time persuaded to join in alliance w/ Muslims alliance w/ Muslims

Why Peace Possible?Why Peace Possible?

1.) After 3.5 yrs. of fighting, 1.) After 3.5 yrs. of fighting, groups look to compromisegroups look to compromise

2.) International/Economic 2.) International/Economic sanctions against sponsorsanctions against sponsor

3.) NATO (North Atlantic Treaty 3.) NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) first time Organization) first time military force directly military force directly

Dayton Peace Accord, 1995Dayton Peace Accord, 1995

Why Dayton Ohio?Why Dayton Ohio?– neutral, good security neutral, good security – good logistics: maps: Wright good logistics: maps: Wright Patterson Air Force Base Patterson Air Force Base

– role of America role of America going to going to be noticed be noticed

Evaluation Evaluation

Did end bloody warDid end bloody warProvides a framework for Provides a framework for

reconciliation reconciliation Did not follow through Did not follow through