THE CLIMATE SEVERITY INDEX FOR CANADA

Recalculated for recently observed climate change and a

scenario of future climate

The CSI of Phillips and Crowe

• An arbitrary index, with a scale of 0 to 100, designed to measure the impact of climate on Canadians, with regard to:– human comfort– psychological well-being– climatic hazards to human life, health and

well-being

• For 146 Canadian locations

• winter discomfort – January wind chill, winter length and severity

• summer discomfort – humidex, summer length, warmth and dampness

• psychological factors– darkness, sunshine, wet days, fog

• hazards – wind, thunderstorms, blowing snow, snowfall

• outdoor mobility – snowfall, visibility, freezing precipitation

CSI Ingredients

Original CSI Map of Canada

The CSI and Observed Climate Change (1)

• The original CSI was based on the climate for 1941-1970 (for 146 stations)

• We now have climate data for 1953-1995 (for a few stations)

• The recent climate has warmed and gotten wetter. What has that done to the CSI?

Recalculation of the CSI

• CSI recalculated for 15 stations using hourly data for– 1953-1970 (to compare with original)– 1953-1980 (to add more recent data)– 1961-1995 (most recent climate window)

• Using only daily data (because scenarios of future climate do not provide hourly data)

The CSI RecalculatedStation Original CSI

1940-1971Recalculated

1953-1970Recalculated

1953-1980Recalculated

1961-1990hourly daily hourly daily hourly daily

Victoria 15 15 16 15 15 14 15Calgary 35 33 30 32 31 29 28Toronto 36 32 37 32 37 31 36Prince George 38 37 36 39 34 33 33Ottawa 44 39 48 39 46 38 45Whitehorse 46 40 36 41 36 37 34Fort McMurray 46 45 43 41 40 38 37Regina 49 46 51 46 50 42 45Fort Simpson 53 47 49 47 47 46 45Kapuskasing 55 55 58 55 56 53 55Yellowknife 57 57 55 53 51 52 50St John’s 59 59 59 59 60 57 58Iqaluit 76 69 70 68 69 69 69Baker Lake 79 80 75 75 74 78 78Churchill 82 83 81 81 78 80 79

The CSI and Future Climate

• CSI calculated on the model grid using model outputs from one run of the Canadian CGCM for one scenario of increasing GHGs and aerosols for– 1961-1995 (present climate)– 2010-2039 (the 2020s)– 2040-2069 (the 2050s)– 2070-2099 (the 2080s)

CSI 1961-1995

CSI 2010-2039

CSI 2040-2059

CSI 2070-2099

A Scenario of Future CSIStation Original CSI 2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099Victoria 15 14 12 15Calgary 35 29 26 24Toronto 36 31 27 25Prince George 38 35 29 24Ottawa 44 39 37 37Whitehorse 46 44 41 39Fort McMurray 46 43 40 41Regina 49 47 44 42Fort Simpson 53 51 49 47Kapuskasing 55 52 49 46Yellowknife 57 54 50 47St John’s 59 55 54 47Iqaluit 76 72 71 64Baker Lake 79 76 74 69Churchill 82 76 73 66