The Civic Orientations of Arab Publics:Selected Findings from the Arab Barometer

• About Country: Governance (democracy, Islam)• About Individual: Engagement (interest, trust)

Mark TesslerUniversity of Michigan

Country Wave One Wave Two Wave ThreeAlgeria N=1300 5-6/2006 N=1216 4-5/2011

N=1220 3-4/2013

Bahrain N=500 1-2/2009    Egypt   N=1219 6-7/2011 N=1196 3-4/2013Iraq   N=1234 2-3/2011

N=1215 6/2013

Jordan N=1143 6/2006 N=1188 12/2010 N=1795 12/2012Kuwait     N=1000 2-3/2014Lebanon N=1195 10/2007 N=1387 11-12/2010 N=1200 6/2013Libya     N=1247 4-5/2014Morocco N=1277 11-12/2006

  N=1196 5-6/2013

Palestine N=1270 5/2006 N=1200 12/2010 N=1200 12/2012Saudi Arabia   N=1404 1-3/2011  Sudan   N=1538 12/2010 N=1200 4-5/2013Tunisia   N=1196 9-10/2011 N=1196 2/2013

Yemen N=717 10/2007 N=1200 2/2011 N=1200 11-12/201314 countries 7 surveys, N=7,402 10 surveys, N=12,782 12 surveys, N=14,868

Arab Barometer Data• 3 Waves since 2006• 14 Countries (probability samples) • 29 surveys (face-to-face interviews)• 35,052 respondents

Website: Information, Reports, DataPartners: Designing Interview Schedule

Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree0

10

20

30

40

50

60

30

53

13

4

31

49

14

6

Wave Two

Wave Three

A democratic system may have problems, yet it is better than other political systems (9 countries)

About 80 Percent in Both Waves Think Democracy Is the Best Political SystemContinuing Support during a Period of Turbulence

Egypt Iraq Tunisia Yemen65

70

75

80

85

90

95

79

86

90

8384

76

83

73

Wave Two

Wave Three

But Some Change in Countries that Have Experienced Greatest Level of Turbulence

Agree Strongly or Agree that Democracy Is the Best Political System

6-7/2011 3-4/

2013

2-3/2011 6/

2013

9-10/2011 2/

2013

2/2011

11-12/2013

There is a difference in opinion among people regarding the most important features of democracy. If you had to choose one, which of the following features would you say is the most important?

Third Wave Second Wave Feature of Democracy

26 27 The opportunity to change the government through elections.

13 12 Freedom to criticize the government.

18 14 Narrowing the gap between rich and poor.

17 19 Providing basic items (such as food, housing, and clothing) to every individual.

11 12 Equality of political rights between citizens.

15 16 Eliminating financial and administrative corruption.

50 51 Political Process

50 49 Economic Performance

An Imperfect Understanding of Democracy(as elsewhere)

To what extent do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements

1. Religious leaders (imams, preachers, priests) should not interfere in voters’ decisions in elections.

2. [Your country] would be better off if religious people hold public positions in the state.

3. Religious leaders (imams, preachers, priests) should have influence over government decisions.

4. Religious practices are private and should be separated from social and political life.

Islam and Its Place in Politics

(Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Sudan, Tunisia, Yemen)

Religious People Hold Public Office

Religious Influence Government Decisions

Not Separate Religion from Political Life

20

30

40

50

4540

33

4436 38

Wave TwoWave Three

Percent Strongly Agree and Agree

Wave Two Wave Three

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

22 16

4 10

-56

-36

-19-38

Strongly Disagree

Disagree

Strongly Agree

Agree

Tunisia: More than a Year under an Islamist Government

Religious leaders should have influence in government decisions

Wave Two Wave Three

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

2018 14

3 9

-42-32

-36-44

Strogly Agree

Agree

Strongly Disagree

Disagree

Religious practices NOT should be separated from social and political life

9-10/2011

9-10/2011

2/2013

2/2013

  Men of religion should have influence over the decisions of government

Democracy, whatever its limitations, is better than any

other political systems

Strongly AgreeAgree

(favor Islamic influence)

Disagree/Strongly Disagree

(not favor Islamic influence)

Strongly Agree/Agree

Percentage of Column

Percentage of Total

Democraticwith Islam

Wave 2 Wave 382% 76%33% 27%

Democraticwithout Islam

Wave 2 Wave 384% 83% 51% 53%

Disagree/Strongly Disagree

Percentage of Column

Percentage of Total

“Authoritarian” with Islam

18% 24% 7% 9%

“Authoritarian”without Islam

16% 17%

9% 11%

Democracy With and Without Islam

Wave TwoWave Three

Democratic with Islam

Democratic without Islam

Authoritarian with Islam

Authoritarian without Islam

Algeria 20 20 65 60 7 14 8 6

Egypt 27 15 52 70 10 3 11 12

Iraq 44 30 43 46 4 10 9 14

Jordan 36 38 45 43 9 9 10 10Lebanon 12 7 70 78 2 2 16 13

Palestine 35 31 50 50 6 9 9 10

Sudan 46 37 36 42 11 11 7 10

Tunisia 22 23 67 60 3 4 8 13Yemen 52 36 31 37 10 14 7 13

Political System Preference by Country and Time Period

Decrease

Increase

Men of religion should have influence over the decisions of government

% Supporting Gender EqualityWave Two Wave Three All

S. Agree/Agree

(favor Islamic influence)

Disagree/ S. Disagree (not

favor Islamic influence)

A married woman can work outside the home

83 84 81 81 84 85

A university education is more important for a boy than a girl

73 78 67 71 77 82

On the whole, men make better political leaders than women

26 34 20 25 30 39

Attitudes toward Women and Gender Equality among Respondents Who Do and Who Do Not Favor a Political Role for Islam

Islamic jurists and religious scholars often differ in their interpretations of certain issues in Islam. To

what extent you agree or disagree with each interpretation below?

Men of religion should have influence over the decisions of government

% Supporting “progressive” interpretationWave Two Wave Three All

S. Agree/Agree

(favor Islamic influence)

Disagree/ S. Disagree (not

favor Islamic influence)

In a Muslim country, non-Muslims should enjoy less political rights than Muslims

74 70 64 58 81 77

In Islam, women should wear modest clothes without needing to wear the hijab

64 62 62 57 66 66

Proper Interpretation of Islam Views of Respondents Who Favor and

Who Do Not Favor a Political Role for Islam

Individual Political Engagement and Assessment

National Political Engagement:• Vote in last parliamentary election• Political Interest• Trust in government Personal Civic Engagement• Member of civic associations• Interpersonal trust• Political efficacy

Very Interested Slightly Not at All0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

28

13

34

2627

12

34

28

Wave Two

Wave Three

Wave Two

Wave Three

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

55 58

-54 -42

No

Yes

Wave Two

Wave Three

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2214

-26-34

None

High

How much trust do you have in the government

To what extent are you interested in politicsDid you vote in last

parliamentary election

National Political Engagement

A Closer Look at Trust in Government

• Which Countries Experienced the Most Change from Wave Two to Wave Three?

• What Are Some of the Demographics of Changing Assessments?• Example of Yemen

• What Are Some of the Determinants of Trust in Government?• Linear Regression with Wave Three Data

Model (OLS – 9 countries) Coefficient (B) Std. Error SignificanceConstant 3.294 .063 .000The economic situation of our country is good

.472 .012 .000Islam should exert political influence

-.116 .010 .000Our country is very democratic (1-10 scale)

.108 .004 .000Female .037 .019 .049

Older .003 .001 .000Dependent variable: higher trust in government

H1. Perceptions of the country’s economic situationH2. Desire for Islam to exert political influenceH3. Degree to which Government is perceived to be democratic

What Pushes Trust in Government Up or Down?

Economic Situation

Perceived to be Favorable

Opposes Islam Exerting Political Influence

Country Perceived to be

DemocraticAlgeria Yes Yes YesEgypt Yes Yes YesIraq Yes Yes Reversed YesJordan Yes No YesLebanon Yes Yes YesPalestine Yes Yes YesSudan Yes No YesTunisia Yes Yes YesYemen Yes No Yes

Drivers of Higher Trust in GovernmentResults of Linear Regression with Demographic Control Variables

Preview of Coming AttractionsData• Release Wave 3 data• Prepare merged 3-wave dataset Dissemination• Increase number and coverage of short reports• Enhance collaboration with Arab Reform Initiative• Increase authors from the region Wave 4• Review Interview Schedule• Continue fund-raising• Explore addition of countries Capacity-Building• Expand support for local teams• Increase opportunities for Arab social scientists