the charlotte mecklenberg schools opportunity for rigor gap a data driven discussion october 1, 2012

The Charlotte Mecklenberg SchoolsOpportunity FOR RIGOR GapA Data Driven Discussion

October 1, 2012

Executive Summary

AP Potential Background

Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools Advanced Placement Overview

Participation and Performance Reports

College Board Support

Table of Contents

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Executive Summary

There are 3964 possible additional seats available for students in Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools with high potential to be successful in AP (70% likelihood of getting a 3, 4, or 5) but who are not in AP today.

This is called the Opportunity for Rigor Gap

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Course Gap• Course not offered• PSAT administered• Minimum of 15 students

with 70% three-exam constrained AP Potential

Section Gap• Course offered• PSAT administered• School enrollment data

available• Minimum of 25 students


• APP students minus estimated enrollment >= 10

• APP students minus estimated capacity >= 10

Seat Gap• Course offered• PSAT administered• Exam data submitted to

College Board• Minimum of 25 students


• Estimated capacity minus estimated enrollment >=10

Crite

ria

2238 Seats 481 Seats 1245 SeatsCMS

Executive Summary

•These courses can satisfy North Carolina graduation requirements and increase college readiness.

Offer AP Human Geography, World History, Calculus AB, Statistics and Environmental Science in schools where the courses are not currently offered

•With teachers already trained and appropriately resourced, adding new sections is a cost effective strategy for increasing AP participation.

Expand the number of sections of AP Music Theory, European History and Art History where the courses are offered in the district

•Some current AP classes may have low enrollment numbers. Use best practice recruiting methods to attract and retain students.

Ensure that current classes are optimized for enrollment at all district high schools

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There are many students in Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools with the potential to be successful in AP coursework who do not have access to AP today. These students could fill the 3964 possible seats identified through the AP Potential models.

Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools can make progress towards the district’s mission to “…maximize academic achievement by every student …” and increase AP participation and AP performance at the same time by increasing enrollment of these high potential students in rigorous coursework. Further, AP professional development supports one of the two key goals of the district’s Strategic Plan 2014, that of improving teaching.

There are three high-impact strategies that the Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools can implement to close this gap:

How do we measure the Opportunity for Rigor Gap?

How can you find these students at your schools?

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AP Potential is a metric that indicates students’ potential to score a 3 or higher on specific AP exams based on their PSAT/NMSQT (PN) scores

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• AP Potential is based on proven research (internal and external) that analyzed the performance of more than a million students and found strong correlations between PN score and AP Exam results.

• Studies conducted in 1998, 2006, 2007, and 2011.

• Expectancy Tables provide probabilities of scoring 3 or better based on PSAT performance levels.

• AP Potential rosters can be customized to expand your AP population

There are strong correlations between the AP Exam and specific PN sections

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Exam Correlation PN Section(s)Art History .575 V+WBiology 656 V+MCalculus AB .530 MCalculus BC .484 MChemistry .599 MComputer Sci A .511 MEnglish Lang .732 V+WEnglish Lit .727 V+WEnvironmental Sci .632 V+MEuropean History .586 V+M+WGoPo: Comparative .523 V+MGoPo: United States .622 V+M+WHuman Geography .606 V+M

Exam Correlation PN Section(s)Latin .471 WMacroeconomics .566 V+MMicroeconomics .549 V+MMusic Theory .477 MPhysics B .540 MPhysics C: E&M .455 MPhysics C: Mechanics .572 MPsychology .624 V+M+WSpanish Literature .411 WStatistics .617 V+MUS History .603 V+M+WWorld History .584 V+M

PN Sections: V=Verbal, M=Math, and W=WritingSource: Updating AP Potential™ Expectancy Tables Involving PSAT/NMSQT® Writing – Ewing, Camara, Millsap, and Milewski

Note: The R-squared ranges between 17% and 54%

PSAT/NMSQT is more strongly correlated with AP success than other measures used by school districts in enrollment policies

PSAT (.56 correlation) stronger correlation than cumulative GPA (.28): “When considering all of the 29 AP Examinations that exhibited a moderate to strong correlation with PSAT/NMSQT scores, the average correlation between AP Examination grades and HSGPA (cumulative high school GPA) had a magnitude of .28. By contrast, the average correlation between the same AP Examinations and the PSAT/NMSQT scores used for computing the expectancy tables was much higher at .56.”1

PSAT (.56 correlation) stronger correlation than relevant course grades (.25): The correlations between AP Examination grades and relevant course grades ranged from .08 (i.e., Studio Art: 2-D Design and Studio Art: Drawing) to .36 (i.e., Statistics). When considering all of the 29 AP Examinations that exhibited a moderate to strong correlation with PSAT/NMSQT scores, the average correlation between AP Examination grades and relevant course grades was .25. This average was again well below the average correlation between AP Examination grades and the PSAT/NMSQT scores used to compute the expectancy tables.

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1 - The Relationship Between PSAT/NMSQT® Scores and AP® Examination Grades: A Follow-Up Study, Maureen Ewing, Wayne J. Camara, and Roger E. Millsap, 2006, pg. 10

However, few districts use AP Potential to recommend a students for AP - leaving many high-potential students out of rigorous courses (Opportunity for Rigor Gap)

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What factors do you use in recommending a student to enroll in an AP course?Select all that apply

Source: 2012 AP Participation Survey: 13,262 respondents

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Note: “AP Potential” is defined here as a 70% or greater likelihood of scoring a 3 or higher on an AP Exam. These data are based on projections from the 2 million students PSAT/NMSQT test takers in the class of 2010

Asian

42%58%

White

62%38%

Hispanic/Latino

70%30%

Black/African American

80%20%

Took Recommended AP Did Not Take Recommended AP

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Among students with high AP potential, Latino and African American students are the least likely to gain access to AP

You can easily identify students with high potential of being successful in AP with PSAT and AP Potential

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Helps schools grow their AP programs by identifying students who have the potential to succeed in rigorous AP courses.

• Online tool that generates rosters of students likely to score 3 or better on a given AP Exam

• Free for all schools that administer the PSAT/NMSQT (PN)

• Designed to expand access to AP and ensure that no student with the potential to succeed in overlooked

• School can customize the list and define the pool of students based on likelihood level (e.g. students are 50% likely to score a 3/4/5 vs. 70% likely)

• The Tool provides a list of students that fit this criteria and are strong candidates for AP

• We can provide specialized training to your District on this tool

What is the Opportunity for Rigor Gap in Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools?


AP Course Offerings and AP Potential

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Science6 Courses

• Biology

• Chemistry

• Physics B

• Physics C –Mechanics

• Physics C – Electricity & Magnetism

• Environmental Science

Mathematics3 Courses

• Calculus AB

• Calculus BC

• Statistics

English2 Courses

• English Language and Composition

• English Literature and Composition

Social Studies: 9 Courses

• European History

• US History

• World History

• Human Geography

• Comparative Government & Politics

• US Government & Politics

• Psychology

• Microeconomics

• Macroeconomics

Electives:5 Courses

• Art History

• Computer Science A

• Latin

• Music Theory

• Spanish Literature

AP Potential is predictive in 25 AP Course Offerings

AP Course Offerings – an Overview for Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools

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Each cell in the next table represents the number of AP courses offered in each school in a specific content area. Example: an entry of 4 in the science column for a specific high school indicates that the school offers 4 out of the 6 possible AP science courses.

English: 2 Courses Mathematics: 3 CoursesEnglish Language and Composition Calculus AB Calculus BC English Literature and Composition Statistics

Social Studies: 9 Courses Science: 6 CoursesEuropean History BiologyUS History ChemistryWorld History Physics BHuman Geography Physics C –MechanicsComparative Government & Politics Physics C – Electricity & MagnetismUS Government & Politics Environmental SciencePsychologyMicroeconomics Electives: 5 CoursesMacroeconomics Art History

Computer Science ALatinMusic TheorySpanish Literature

AP Course Offerings An Overview for Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools

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Name Science (6) Math (3) English (2) Social Sciences (9) Elective (5) Total (25)Ardrey Kell High School

Biotechnology, Health, and Public Administration at Olympic..

Business and Finance High School at Garinger High School

Cato Middle College High School

David W Butler High School

East Mecklenburg High School

Harding University High School

Hawthorne High School

Hopewell High School

Independence High School

International Business and Communication Studies at Olymp..

International Studies at Garinger

Leadership and Public Service High School at Garinger

Mallard Creek High School

Math and Science High School at Garinger

Math, Engineering, Technology, and Science at Olympic High..

Military and Global Leadership Academy at Marie G Davis

Myers Park High School

New Technology High School at Garinger High School

North Mecklenburg Senior High School

Northwest School of the Arts

Performance Learning Center

Providence High School

Renaissance School at Olympic

Rocky River High School

South Mecklenburg High School

The School of International Studies and Global Economics at ..

Turning Point Academy

West Charlotte High School

West Mecklenburg High School

William Amos Hough High School

Zebulon B Vance High School

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17

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9

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5

4

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3

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3

2

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1

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Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools: Overview - Core/Elective AP Course Offerings

Charlotte Mecklenberg High Schools AP Course Offerings by High School

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Name

Science

Biology

Chemistry

Env SciPhys B

Phys C: EMPhys C: M

Math

Calc ABCalc BCStatistics

English

Eng LangEng Lit

Social Science

U.S. HistWorld Hist

Eur HistMacroecMicroecU.S. GovComp GovPsychology Human Geo

Elective (excl. Latin & Span Lit)

Art Hist

Comp Sci AMus Theory

Ardrey Kell High School
































Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools: AP Course Offerings

Course Offered

Course Not Offered

Opportunity for Rigor model gaps – an Overview for Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools

17

Name

Science

Biology

Chemistry

Env SciPhys B

Phys C: EMPhys C: M

Math


English

Eng LangEng Lit

Social Science

U.S. HistWorld Hist



Art Hist

Comp Sci A Mus Theory

































Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools: AP Course, Section, and Seat Gaps

Course Gap

Seat Gap

Section Gap

Section/Seat Gap

Opportunity for Rigor model gaps – Course Gap Specifics

18

Name

Science

Biology

Chemistry

Env SciPhys B

Phys C: EMPhys C: M

Math


English

Eng LangEng Lit

Social Sciences

U.S. HistWorld Hist



Art Hist

Comp Sci A Mus Theory


Biotechnology, Health, and Public Administration at Olympic ..









International Business and Communication Studies at Olympi..





Math, Engineering, Technology, and Science at Olympic High ..

















16

18 23

51

21

61

23 40

89

24

21

16

29

27

20

27

20

1687

23

19

82

15

157

23

47

155

49

43

19

57

20

159

78

17

16

36

26

42

16

23

51

21

61

45

58

96

30

34

87

Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools: AP Course Gaps

Opportunity for Rigor model gaps – Section Gap Specifics

19

Name

Science

BiologyChemistry

Env SciPhys B

Phys C: EMPhys C: M

Math


English

Eng LangEng Lit

Social Sciences

U.S. HistWorld Hist

Eur HistMacroecMicroecU.S. GovComp Gov Psychology Human Geo


Art HistComp Sci A Mus Theory


Biotechnology, Health, and Public Administration at Olympic H..









International Business and Communication Studies at Olympic..





Math, Engineering, Technology, and Science at Olympic High S..











The School of International Studies and Global Economics at O..






25

24

10

114

94

93

43

34

26

18

Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools: AP Section Gaps

Opportunity for Rigor model gaps – Seat Gap Specifics

20

Name

Science

BiologyChemistry

Env SciPhys B

Phys C: EMPhys C: M

Math

Calc ABCalc BCStatistics Calc_AB2Calc_BC2

English

Eng LangEng Lit

Eng_Lit2

Social Sciences

U.S. HistWorld Hist

Eur HistMacroecMicroecU.S. GovComp Gov Psychology Human Geo

Macroec2World_Hist2


Art HistComp Sci A Mus Theory


Biotechnology, Health, and Public Administration at Olympic Hi..









International Business and Communication Studies at Olympic ..





Math, Engineering, Technology, and Science at Olympic High Sc..











The School of International Studies and Global Economics at Oly..






21 17

78

48

30

12

98

89

68

64

61

48

43

39

39

37

35

35

34

32

24

21

19

19

15

12

38

31

28

22

21

17

17

17

16

Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools: AP Seats Gaps

Schools offer a variety of Rigorous Coursework Opportunities to Students

Research comparing AP to dual enrollment shows that students who take AP:• Earn more credit hours• Have higher college GPA’s• Have higher graduation rates

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Murphy, D., & Dodd, B. (2009), Keng, L., & Dodd, B. (2008), Hargrove, L., Godin, D., & Dodd, B. (2008)

Rigorous Coursework – What to Consider

The decision about AP and Dual Enrollment should consider more than where a student will attend college

• Student Interest/Proposed Major

• Motivation

• Career Interest

• Perseverance

• Time to College Graduation

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How can AP help you close the Opportunity for Rigor Gap?

1. Training for counseling staff on using data to identify students

2. Start Up Kit for school leaders - Process and Timelines for successfully adding new AP courses to course catalog

3. Recruitment Toolkit for your teachers and school leaders - best practice strategies for increasing enrollment in AP Courses

4. Cost-effective professional development for teachers that will start new AP courses, access to teacher community and resources to get started

5. Outreach to students/parents/community based organizations about value of AP and asking them to get engaged in college readiness

6. Outreach to counselors

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How do we measure the Opportunity for Rigor Gap?

Appendix


Total number of schools 159- Elementary schools 88- Middle schools 39- High schools 28- Alternative schools 4- Mobile/modular classrooms 612

Projected number of students enrolled (excludes Pre-K) 137,740- Pre-kindergarten 3,100- Kindergarten-grade 5 68,799- Grades 6-8 31,288- Grades 9-12 37,653

2011-2012Demographic Information:- American Indian/multiracial 3%- Asian 5%- African-American 42%- Hispanic 17.5%- White 32.5%

Advanced Courses (2010-2011)- Students taking AP exams 9,526- Total number of AP exams taken by students 9,523- IB diplomas conferred 64- Total IB candidates 134

Charlotte Mecklenberg Schools

North Carolina State HS Graduation Requirements

the charlotte mecklenberg schools opportunity for rigor gap a data driven discussion october 1, 2012

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