the changing structure of the venture capital industry
TRANSCRIPT
THE SHIFTING VC LANDSCAPE
Mark Suster - @msuster
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To read my full blog post about this presentation and watch the video see links in description below.
2014 appears to be the most active for LPs the since recession
Source: 2Q 2014 Pitchbook US Venture Industry Datasheet . Annualized 2014 fundraising based on 49 funds closed in Q1. PwC “Asset Management 2020” 3
$23
.1
$34
.6
$36
.0
$29
.5
$12
.6
$19
.5
$24
.7
$20
.3
$18
.4
$8.
8
159
183 164 171
102 121
97
132 147
~200
0
50
100
150
200
250
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Est
Capital Raised ($B) # of Funds Closed
Q1
The Dot Com skepticism from LPs has finally thawed, but some things have changed…
Seed funds now a well accepted norm (67% of all funds). Starting to hear talk of “seed co-investment or opportunity funds”
*As of Q1 2014. Source; Q2 2014 PitchBook US Venture Industry Data Sheet 5
33% 40%
54% 67%
2008 2010 2012 2014*
Share of VC funds raised < $50M
Represents 6% of total $ raised
But overall LP capital has continued to concentrated in later-stage funds with 66% of all money in big funds
*As of Q1 2014. Source; Q2 2014 PitchBook US Venture Industry Data Sheet 6
39% 43%
59% 66%
2008 2010 2012 2014*
Share of VC $ funds raised > $500M
Traditional VC is what has been impacted the most decreased in dollars and funds
*As of Q1 2014. Source; Q2 2014 PitchBook US Venture Industry Data Sheet, Atelier Advisors 7
44%
33%
23% 18%
2008 2010 2012 2014*
# of Funds (%) $100M - $500M
53% 45%
32% 26%
2008 2010 2012 2014*
$ Funds Raised (%) $100M - $500M
Some obvious factors driving later stage LP investment
8
q Pension funds & other large asset managers need to write big checks
q FoFs need to show they have access to the top historical winners
q Continued perception / narrative of “the best and the rest”
But this is too simplistic
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The market is actually bifurcating
The structure of the startup / venture market has started to change
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1. Startups staying private longer prior to IPO
2. More value captured by private investors
3. VC funds thus raising more growth & opportunity funds to back pro-rata in winners
Companies are raising larger amounts of capital before going public
Source: Dow Jones Venture Source 2014 via EY 11
$49 $43
$72 $83 $78
$101
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Median amount raised prior to IPO ($M)
• Hedge funds • Mutual funds
Capital sources for late-stage private companies up dramatically
Source: CB Insights 12
Traditional public investors
• Growth funds
• Opportunity funds
Traditional VC investors
Moving Later
Moving Earlier
• Google • Rakuten • Alibaba
Corporate VC Entrants
New
IPOs are happening, they’re just being delayed
Source: NVCA 2014 Yearbook - Thomson Reuters 13
2 2 2 1 2 3
21 17
9 13
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
No. of IPOs with market cap > $1B
No. of IPOs with market cap > $10B
$0.2 $0.4 $0.8 $4.3
$18
$104 $150+
Cisco Amazon Microsoft LinkedIn Twitter FB Alibaba (est)
Market Capitalization at IPO ($B)
So private investors capture more value, encouraging greater pre-IPO funding. Early investors want to capture pro-rata
Source: Quigley Report 2011, FLAG Capital 14
Previous Tech Cycle New Tech Cycle
$125B+ Current market cap:
$150B+ $340B+
But this is not 2000.
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This is not 2000
The Kauffman Report was wrong. It’s morning in VC
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, World Bank. As of Q2 June 2012. Akamai. 2014 Statista forecasts, : eMarketer, WSJ 16
50x more internet users: 2.4B in 2012, 44M in 1995 120x faster online speeds: 6.7 mbps US average today vs. 56k modems
People are mobile: Personal, location aware. US has 164M smartphone users & 119M tablet users in 2014. People are socially connected: 1.3B+ MAU on FB, 250M+ on TWTR, 300M+ on LNKD. Credit cards on file: 1B+ digital shoppers and $1.5T ecommerce spend globally. $35B Apple app store in 2014
Public company startups are significantly more mature than their 1.0 counterparts.
Source: Age from NVCA 2014 Yearbook – Thomson Retuers, Revenue & Multiples from Pitchbook Tech Valuations Presentation (June 2014) 17
3.1
7.4
IPO in '00 IPO in '13
Years to IPO (from 1st financing)
$35
$102
IPO in '00-01 IPO in '13-'14
Revenue ($M)
13.3x
5.3x
IPO in '00-01 IPO in '13-'14
Valuation/Revenue Multiple
But late-stage private financing still produces some lofty late-stage valuations When a concept works the competition is fierce
Source: Graphic from Bullpen Capital 18
Seed Stage Early Stage Later Stage
More seed rounds as costs decline & sources
of capital increase
Larger later stage
rounds after validation Traditional VC
Today’s VC
Thus late-stage valuations have risen fastest in past 4 years. That’s the trend to watch carefully
Source: Source; Q2 2014 PitchBook US Venture Industry Data Sheet, * As of Q1 2014 19
$3.2 $6.7
$19.9 $37.1
$66.1 $5.9
$11.3 $28.1
$62.3 $155.0
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
17% 14% 9%
14%
24%
Seed Series A Series B Series C Series D+
Median Pre-Money Valuation ($M)
2010 to 2014 CAGR
2014*
2010
THE SHIFTING VC LANDSCAPE
Mark Suster - @msuster