The Changing Population of Texas

Government Finance Officers Association of Texas

October 25, 2012San Marcos, TX

2

Growing States, 2000-2010

2000Population*

2010Population*

NumericalChange

2000-2010

PercentChange

2000-2010

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%

Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.

65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic population

3

Percent Change Due to

Year* PopulationNumerical

ChangePercentChange

NaturalIncrease

NetMigration

1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --

1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.09

1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.26

1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.42

1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.15

2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.35

2009 24,782,302 3,930,484 18.8 54.04 45.33

2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6

2011 25,674,681 529,120 2.1 54.79 44.99

* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011

4

Components of Population Change, Texas 1950-2009

1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000

2000-09 -

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

Net MigrationNatural Increase

5

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 to 2001

2001 to 2002

2002 to 2003

2003 to 2004

2004 to 2005

2005 to 2006

2006 to 2007

2007 to 2008

2008 to 2009

International

State-to-State

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates

Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009

6

Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity

Net domesti

c migr

ation

Internati

onal migr

ation

Total0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

44%24% 33%

28%50% 40%

23% 8% 15%

5%18% 12%

OtherBlackHispanicWhite

67% of all migrants

Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau

(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)

52% of all migrants were international

7

Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

Legend

-20 to -45%

-19 to -10%

-9 to -5%

-4 to 0%

1 to 5 %

6 to 20%

21 to 30%

31 to 65%

8

Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

Legend

0-1%

1-2.5%

2.5-3.5%

3.5-5%

5-10%

9http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

10

11http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

12http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

13

http://www.forbes.com

14

States with Largest Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010

State Estimate (thousands)

Range

California 2,550 (2,350 - 2,750)

Texas 1,650 (1,450 - 1,850)

Florida 825 (725 - 950)

New York 625 (525 - 725)

New Jersey 550 (425 - 650)

Illinois 525 (425 - 625)

Georgia 425 (300 - 550)

Arizona 400 (275 - 500)

Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011).

6.5% of Texas’ 2010 Population

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White53%

NH Black12%

NH Other

4%

Hispanic or Latino

32%

2000

NH White45%

NH Black11%

NH Other

6%

His-panic or Latino38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count

16

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

Under 1 year13 years 26 years 39 years 52 years 65 years 78 years 91 years0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

White (non-Hispanic)

Hispanic

Age

Popu

latio

n

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Under 1 year4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

White M Hispanic M Black M Asian M Other MWhite F Hispanic F Black F Asian F Other F

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

17Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

18Under 1 year

4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

White Male White Female

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

19Under 1 year

4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Hispanic M Black M Asian M Other MHispanic F Black F Asian F Other F

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

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Total Population by County, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census

Legend

co48_d00

'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10

82 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,001

100,001 - 500,001

500,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 - 4,100,000

21

Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census

Legend

co48_d00

'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010

-3,200 - 0

1 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 700,000

22

Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2010

Population increase for Texas was 20.6% during this period

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census

Water'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch0010

-20%-0%

1%-10%

10.1-25%

25.1%-50%

50.1%-82%

Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys

-3 to -0.5

-0.49 to -.001

0

.001 to .5

.51-2.1

23Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections

Year

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040

24

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

AngloBlackHispanicOther

Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2007 Migration Scenario

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-2040

Percent Projected Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2008-2040

25

26

Educational Attainment in Texas, 2010

Level of Educational Attainment

Percent of persons aged 25 years and older

State Ranking

High school diploma or equivalency or greater

80.7% 49/50 (tied with CA)

Bachelors or greater 25.9% 31

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010.

27

Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level aged 25 years and more, Texas, 2009

19%

6%

71%

3%

67%

8%

15%

9%

Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer.

Less Than High SchoolCollege and Greater

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

18.8

29 28.7

18.2

5.3

30.128.7

23.9

12.9

4.4

No High School Diploma

High School Graduate

Some College

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate/Prof.Degree

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Percent

2000 2040

$18,000-30,000

$ 30,000-35,000

$ 35,000-40,000

$40,000-50,000

$ 50,000-76,000

Median Household Income by County, 2006-2008

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 3-Year Sample 2006-200829

Percent of Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living Below Poverty During Past 12 Months,

2006-2008

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 3-Year Sample 2006-2008

5-20%

20-30%

30-40%

40-55%

30

Latino Anglo Black Asian Other0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

38

14

23 21 2125

2228

11

21

40

76

54

7064

None Public Private

Source: American Community Survey Microdata, 2008

% Health Insurance Coverage by EthnicGroup and Type, Texas, 2008

31

32

Teen Birth Rate by State, 2010

Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Rank State Birth rate per 1,000 women ages 15-19

1 Mississippi 552 New Mexico 52.93 Arkansas 52.54 Texas 52.25 Oklahoma 50.46 Louisiana 47.77 Kentucky 46.28 District of Columbia 45.49 West Virginia 44.8

10 Alabama 43.6

33

Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040

Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections

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Demographics and Destiny

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Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.usInternet: http://osd.state.tx.us

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.