The Changing Global Trade Landscape

Top 10 Leading Economies in 2050Nominal GDP (US$ Trillion)

China 44.5United States 35.2India 27.8Japan 6.7Brazil 6.1Russia 5.9United Kingdom 3.8Germany 3.6France 3.1Italy 2.1

Country

High Technology ExportsTop 10 Countries & India, 2002

Rank CountryUS$

MillionsUS$ per Capita

1 U.S. 162,345 5632 Japan 94,730 7453 Germany 86,861 1,0534 U.K. 71,481 1,2075 China 68,182 536 Singapore 63,792 15,3207 France 52,582 8848 Korea 46,438 9759 Netherlands 33,667 2,08510 Ireland 31,624 8,067

33 India 1,680 2

2003 Share of World Trade

Total: $7.4 trillion

EU40%

United States10%

Japan6%

China6%

Canada4%

Rest of World31%

Hong Kong3%

Top Oil Producing Nations: 2003

LibyaBrazil

AlgeriaNigeria

KuwaitUK

UAECanada

Ven.Norway

ChinaMex

IranUSA

RussiaS. Arabia

10

8

6

4

2

0

Barrels per day, Millions

World Oil Consumption 2003

Total: $78.1 million Barrels per Day

Rest of World48%

United States25%

Germany3%

China8%

Japan7%

Russia3%

South Korea3%

India3%

FDI: Largest Inflows, 1999-2003

SwedenCanada

NethFrance

UKBelg & Lux

USEmerg Mkts

EU

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

US$ billions

FDI: Largest Outflows, 1999-2003

CanadaJapan

GermanyNeth

Emerg MktsFrance

UKUS

EU

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

US$ billions

World Total Inward FDI1995-2004

2004200320022001200019991998199719961995

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

US$ billions

Net Foreign Direct Investment:Developing Countries, 1995-2004

2004200320022001200019991998199719961995

100

80

60

40

20

0

US$ billions

Note: 2004 estimates

Africa Developing AsiaMiddle East West Hemisphere

Countries that Export Capital: 2004

Taiwan 3%Korea 3%

Netherlands 2%

Hong Kong 2%

Other Countries

21%

Singapore 3%

Sweden 3%

China5%

Switzerland 4% Norway5%

Russia7%

Germany14%

Saudi Arabia6%

Japan19%

Canada 3%

Countries that Import Capital: 2004

United States71%

Greece 1%

Turkey 1%Italy 2%

France 1%

United Kingdom

5%

Portugal 1%

Australia 4%

Spain 4%

Hungary 1%Other

Countries9%

0403

0201

0099

9897

9695

9493

9291

9089

8887

8685

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

US$ Billions

ExportsImportsTrade Balance

U.S. Trade in ServicesExports and Imports, 1983 - 2004

U.S. Exports in ServicesBy Category, 2004

Passenger Fares5.6%

Other Transpot.

11.0%

Royalties and License Fees

15.1%

Travel22.1%

Other Private

Services42.0%

U.S. Gov. Misc.0.2%

Military-Defense

Transfers4.0%

U.S. Exports in Services2000 and 2004

Category2000

(US$ Bil.)2004

(US$ Bil.)PercentChange

Other Private Services 104.7 142.3 35.9Royalties and License Fees 39.6 51.1 29.0Other Transportation 30.1 37.3 23.9Military-Defense Transfers 14.0 13.6 -2.9Travel 82.3 74.7 -9.2Passenger Fares 20.8 18.8 -9.6U.S. Government Miscellaneous 0.8 0.7 -12.5Total Exports in Services 292.2 338.6 15.9

Top 10 Exporting StatesRanked by 2004 Value, US$ Billions

Rank State 2002 2003 2004

Percent Change

2003-20041 Texas 95.40 98.85 117.24 18.6%2 California 92.21 93.99 109.97 17.0%3 New York 36.98 39.18 44.40 13.3%4 Michigan 33.78 32.94 35.63 8.1%5 Washington 34.63 34.17 33.79 -1.1%6 Ohio 27.72 29.76 31.21 4.9%7 Illinois 25.69 26.47 30.21 14.1%8 Florida 24.54 24.95 28.98 16.1%9 Massachusetts 16.71 18.66 21.84 17.0%10 Louisiana 17.57 18.39 19.92 8.3%

693.26 723.74 817.94 13.0%U.S. Total

2015201020052000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Thousands Percent

Number of Jobs - L% of Total US Jobs - R

Projected Offshoring of U.S. JobsCumulative Jobs Offshored

Industries at Risk to OffshoringUnited States Employment

Industry2001(Q1)(Thou.)

2003(Q2)(Thou.)

Percent Change2001-2003

Nonmanufacturing SectorsSoftware Publishers (except Internet) 276.1 247.9 -10.2%Internet Publishing and Broadcasting 50.6 33.7 -33.4%Telecommunications 1,323.4 1,138.9 -13.9%ISPs, Search Portals and Data Process 516.0 433.2 -16.0% Data Processing & Rel. Services 320.9 292.2 -8.9%Accounting, Bookkeeping & Payroll 976.3 875.7 -10.3% Payroll Services 158.9 124.6 -21.6%Computer Systems Design & Rel. 1,341.2 1,148.1 -14.4%Business Support Services 784.4 746.2 -4.9% Telephone Call Centers 406.2 363.2 -10.6% Telephone Answering Services 54.8 50.9 -7.1% Telemarketing Bureaus 351.4 312.3 -11.1%Manufacturing SectorsComputer and Electronic Products 1,862.1 1,415.9 -24.0% Semiconductors and Electronic 308.7 237.9 -22.9%Total At-Risk Industries 6,853.9 5,791.8 -15.5%

U.S. Jobs Moving OffshorePercent of U.S. Jobs Lost by Offshoring, 2000-2015

Annual WageOccupation 2003 2000 2005 2010 2015Management $82,790 0% 6% 7% 9%Legal Occupations $78,910 2% 2% 2% 2%Computer & Mathematical $63,240 26% 19% 17% 14%Architecture & Engineering $59,230 3% 5% 5% 6%Business & Financial Operations $55,500 11% 10% 10% 10%Life, Physical, and Social Science $53,210 0% 1% 1% 1%Arts, Entertainment & Media $42,620 1% 1% 1% 1%Sales & Related $31,250 4% 5% 6% 7%Office & Adminstrative Support $28,260 53% 50% 50% 50%

% US Offshoring Jobs

Computer ProgrammersAverage Salaries, 2003

Country Salary RangePercent to U.S.

Equivalent SalaryPoland & Hungary $4,800 - $8,000 6% - 13 %Russian Federation $5,000 - $7,500 6% - 13%India $5,880 - $11,000 7% - 18%Philippines $6,564 8% - 11%Malaysia $7,200 9% - 12%China $8,952 11% - 15%Israel $15,000 - $38,000 19% - 63%Ireland $23,000 - $34,000 29% - 57%Canada $28,174 35% - 47%U.S. $60,000 - $80,000 100%

SoftwareSemiconductor

100

80

60

40

20

0

Percent

38%

33%

13%

11%

5%

29%

37%

9%

9%

16%

Bay AreaRest of U.S.IndiaChinaRest of the World

Research Jobs CreatedBay Area-Based Companies, 2004

Globally Distributed Production FunctionsHewlett Packard Printer, 2004

U.S. India

Hungary China Mexico

Taiwan

Local Local Local

R&D andDesign

ComponentManufacturing

Assembly andTesting

Distribution

Hourly Wages for Selected OccupationsU.S., California, Silicon Valley and India, 2003

Occupation U.SSilicon Valley India

Telephone Operator $13.48 $17.75 Under $1.00Health Record Techs $11.79 $15.85 $1.50 - $2.00Payroll Clerk $14.22 $21.02 $1.50 - $2.00Legal Assistant $17.15 $24.78 $6.00 - $8.00Accountant $23.59 $30.60 $6.00 - $15.00Financial Analyst $28.87 $36.19 $6.00 - $15.00Programmer $29.49 $40.31 $2.65 - $6.00

China – Global R&D PresenceForeign R&D Centers in China, 2004

Company R&D Center LocationEricsson Ericsson R&D Center ShanhaiFujisu Fujisu R&D Center BeijingGE GE China Technology Center ShanhaiGM GM Panya Auto Technology Center ShanhaiHitachi Hitachi China R&D Center BeijingHP HP Digital Signal Technology Center BeijingIBM IBM China Research Center Beijing, ShanghaiIntel Intel China Research Center Beijing, ShanghaiLucent Technology Lucent Technology China Bell Lab. Beijing, ShanghaiMatsushita Matsushita R&D Center BeijingMicrosoft Microsoft Asia Research Institute BeijingMotorola Motorola China Research Institute Beijing, ShanghaiNEC NEC-China Science Inst. Dev. Center XianNokia Nokia China Research Center Beijing, HangzhouP&G P&G Beijing Research Center BeijingToshiba Toshiba R&D Center BeijingUnilever Unilever Shanghai Research Center ShanhaiVolkswagen Shanghai Volkswagen R&D Center ShanhaiXerox Xerox Shanhai Software Dev. Center Shanhai

04030201009998979695

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

US$ Billions

Exports to the WorldImports from the WorldTrade Balance with the World

China – Rising World TradeMonthly, 1980-2004

Exports to the World7 times increase

Imports from the World8 times increase

Trade balance with the World4 times increase

China's Trade with the World2000-2004

(US$ Billions) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Exports 249 266 326 438 594 % change 27.8 6.8 22.3 34.6 35.4Imports 225 244 295 413 561 % change 35.8 8.2 21.2 39.9 35.9Total 474 510 621 851 1,155 % change 31.5 7.5 21.8 37.1 35.7Balance 24.1 22.5 30.4 25.5 32.6

China’s Top Exports

2003 2004 Percent(US$ Billions) (US$ Billions) Change

Electrical Machinery & Equip. 89.0 129.7 45.8Power Generation Equip. 83.5 118.1 41.7Apparel 45.8 54.8 19.7Iron & Steel 12.9 25.2 96.0Furniture & Bedding 12.9 17.3 29.1Optics & Medical Equip. 10.6 16.2 53.6Footwear & Parts 13.0 15.2 17.4Toys & Games 13.3 15.1 13.6Mineral Fuel & Oil 11.1 14.5 30.2Inorganic & Organic chemicals 10.7 13.9 29.8

Commodity Description

China’s Top Imports

2003 2004 Percent(US$ Billions) (US$ Billions) Change

Electrical Machinery & Equip. 103.9 142.1 36.7Power Generation Equip. 71.5 91.6 28.2Mineral Fuel & Oil 29.3 48.0 64.2Optical & Medical Equip. 25.1 40.2 59.8Iron & Steel 25.6 28.4 10.9Plastics 21.0 28.1 33.4Inorganic & Organic Chemicals 18.7 27.8 48.4Ore, Slag, & Ash 7.2 17.3 141.0Vehicle & Parts 11.8 13.1 11.2Copper 7.2 10.5 46.3

Commodity Description

China – FDI InflowRanked by Contract Value, 2003

Rank Country Number of

ProjectsContract Value

(US$ Bil.)Used Value (US$ Bil.)

1 Hong Kong 13,633 40.7 17.72 Japan 3,254 8.0 5.13 Korea 4,920 9.2 4.54 U.S. 4,060 10.2 4.25 Taiwan 4,495 8.6 3.46 Singapore 1,144 3.4 2.17 Germany 451 1.4 8.68 U.K. 438 1.2 0.79 Netherlands 189 1.0 0.7

10 France 269 0.7 0.632,853 84.4 47.541,081 115.1 53.5

Top 10 CountriesAll Countries

U.S. Trade Deficit with China

in February 2005 was at the lowest level since June 2004

Feb. ’05 U.S. imports of textiles and clothing from China rose 9.8% even though America’s overall trade gap with China narrowed to $13.9 billion, down 9.2% from Jan. ’05 deficit of $15.3 billion due to increasing U.S. exports to China and declining imports outside of textiles.

Jan. and Feb. 2005 U.S. Trade Deficitis running at an annual rate of $717.2 billion, a full $100 billion above the record U.S. trade imbalance of $617.1 billion set for all of 2004.

The Feb. increase reflected higher prices as crude oil

climbed to $36.85 per barrel vs. $35.25 in Jan.

The record February 2005 U.S. trade

deficit of $61.04 billion

surpassed the old record of

$59.4 billion set last November, 2004

D – Fence

Should we introduce protectionist measures

such as re-impose quotas on Chinese imports of various products to protect

domestic U.S. industries?

20022001200019991998199719961995

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

US$ Millions

India – Offshoring Takes OffRevenues from Business-Process Offshoring in India

British Airways

GECitygroup

TransWorks

Convergys,Daksh,HSBC

HCL Technologies,Speedwing Int.,

Standard CharteredMultinational companies entry

to India

Outsourcing Jobs Rise in IndiaIT & Other Service Jobs

20042003200220012000

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Thousands

IT WorkersOther Service Workers

2004*2003200220012000

500

400

300

200

100

0

Index 2000 = 100

IT WorkersOther Service Workers

IT & Other Service Jobs in IndiaIndexed Growth, 2000-2004

*Estimated

IT ServicesRemote ITTechnologyDomestic Market

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

US$ Billions

Lower EstimateUpper Estimate

India – The World’s Back Office?India’s IT Industry in 2008

Exports

2002200019901980

100

80

60

40

20

0

Percent

AgricultureIndustryServices

India – More Services-OrientedIndia’s GDP by Sector

0201009998979695949392

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

US$ Billions Percent

Value (L)% of US Exports in Services (R)

India Is Buying More U.S. ServicesExports of Private U.S. Services to India, 1992-2002

ChinaMexico

IndiaPhilippines

IndonesiaArgentina

FranceJapan

U.K.U.S.

1500

1000

500

0

-500

Thousands

Net Legal ImmigrationSelected Countries, Avg. Annual, 1995 - 2000

JamaicaHong Kong

U.K.Germany

IsraelIndia

ChinaAustralia

JapanU.S.

80

60

40

20

0

Percent

Emigration Rate for Highly EducatedBy Country of Birth, 2001

FranceItaly

JapanU.K.

U.S.Canada

AustriaAustralia

GermanyNew Zealand

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Number of Foreign Workers

Inflow of Foreign WorkersPer 100,000 Residents, 2003

U.S. Professional Worker Visa ApprovalsH-1B Visa, Top 10 Country of Birth, 2003

Country Total PercentIndia 75,964 12.2%U.K. 31,343 5.0%Canada 20,947 3.4%Mexico 16,290 2.6%France 15,705 2.5%Germany 13,680 2.2%Japan 13,343 2.1%China* 12,501 2.0%Colombia 10,628 1.7%Brazil 9,878 1.6%

* China includes Taiwan

U.S. Professional Worker Visa ApprovalsH-1B Visa, Top 5 Occupation Group, 2002

Country Total PercentComputer-Related 75,114 38.3%Architecture/Engineer/Survey 25,197 12.8%Administrative Specializations 21,103 10.8%Education 20,613 10.5%Medicine &Health 12,920 6.6%

U.S. Student Visa ApprovalsF-1 Visa, Top 10 Country of Birth, 2003

Country Total PercentJapan 81,558 13.1%Korea 74,115 11.9%China* 56,870 9.1%India 50,884 8.1%Canada 29,997 4.8%Mexico 22,549 3.6%Turkey 15,178 2.4%Germany 14,949 2.4%U.K. 14,852 2.4%France 12,344 2.0%

* China includes Taiwan

2003200220012000199919981997

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

Thousands Percent Change, Year Ago

F1 Visa Approvals - LGrowth Rate - R

U.S. Student Visa ApprovalsF-1 Visa, Selected Years

Scientists & Engineers in R&DTop 10 Countries by Per Mil. Population, 2003

Rank Country NumberPer MillionPopulation

1 Japan 648,778 5,0952 Finland 26,378 5,0593 Sweden 40,534 4,5114 Singapore 19,737 4,1405 Norway 18,811 4,1126 U.S. 1,201,233 4,0997 Switzerland 26,762 3,5928 Russian Federation 501,621 3,4819 Denmark 18,816 3,476

10 Australia 66,775 3,353

50 China 705,689 54572 India 167,414 157

GermanyJapan

U.S.U.S.+Japan+Germany

China

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

Thousands Percent

NumberPer 100,000 People

Engineering GraduatesBachelor’s Degrees, 2004

Hong KongMexico

CanadaTaiwan

JapanKorea

ChinaIndia

80

60

40

20

0

Thousands

1

2

34

5 6

7 15

Foreign Students in the U.S.Rankings and Country of Origin

China + Taiwan + Hong Kong = 100,850

Countries With The Most WorkersPeople Aged 15-64 Currently Employed

Rank Country Millions1 China 766.92 India 442.23 United States 145.14 Indonesia 102.65 Brazil 79.26 Russia 78.07 Bangladesh 69.68 Japan 68.49 Pakistan 52.1

10 Nigeria 45.1

20032002

20012000

19991998

19971996

19951994

19931992

19911990

10

8

6

4

2

0

Number

ChinaKoreaJapanU.S.GermanyIndia

Patents Per US$ Billion of GDPU.S. Patent and Trademark Office, 1990-2003

20032002

20012000

19991998

19971996

19951994

19931992

19911990

50

40

30

20

10

0

Number

ChinaKoreaJapanU.S.GermanyIndia

Patents Per US$ Billion of Industrial ProductionU.S. Patent and Trademark Office, 1990-2003

The U.S dollar

has been declining for 3 years

A fact that should help narrow the trade deficit by

making imports more expensive to American

consumers while making U.S. exports cheaper ?

2004200320022001200019991998

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

Local Currency Unit Per US$

Japanese Yen (in 100s)U.K.EuroAustralian Dollar

Depreciating $US1998-2004

For every 15% drop

in the US$

China would sustaina $75 billion position

loss

Equivalent to a Equivalent to a 5% hit to Chinese 5% hit to Chinese

GDPGDP

RMB RevaluationRMB Revaluation

u Exports

u Domestic Demand

u Employment

u Rest of Asia

The Implications of an RMB Revaluation

04030201009998979695949392

200

150

100

50

0

-50

-100

US$ Billions

Imports from the WorldExports to the WorldTrade Balance with the World

U.S. – Trade Deficit Deepened1992 M1- 2005 M2

05

04030201009998979695949392

0

-50

-100

-150

-200

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

US$ Billions Percent

Trade Balance with the World - LPercent of Real GDP - R

U.S. – Trade Deficit As Percent of Real GDP, 1992Q1 - 2004Q4

A Superpower on Borrowed Money

• What is happening to the US?• What is the rest of the world doing?• How does it look to creditors?• How does it look to the debtor?• What are the geo-political implications?• What should be done?

What is happening to the US?US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE

(as per cent of GDP)

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Q1

70

Q2

71

Q3

72

Q4

73

Q1

75

Q2

76

Q3

77

Q4

78

Q1

80

Q2

81

Q3

82

Q4

83

Q1

85

Q2

86

Q3

87

Q4

88

Q1

90

Q2

91

Q3

92

Q4

93

Q1

95

Q2

96

Q3

97

Q4

98

Q1

00

Q2

01

Q3

02

Q4

03

What is happening to the US?US NET EXTERNAL ASSETS OVER GDP

(per cent)

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

What is happening to the US?FINANCIAL BALANCES OF THE US ECONOMY

(per cent of GDP)

-10.00%

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

196001 196501 197001 197501 198001 198501 199001 199501 200001

PrivateSector

PSBR Foreign lending

What is happening to the US?US GDP AND REAL DOMESTIC DEMAND

(per cent)

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

GDP DOMESTIC DEMAND

What is happening to the US?FINANCING OF THE US CAPITAL ACCOUNT ($bn)

$42.8 $28.1$114.0

$248.6

$355.3

$435.6$393.4

$459.6

$295.1

$256.2

-$200.0

-$100.0

$0.0

$100.0

$200.0

$300.0

$400.0

$500.0

$600.0

$700.0

$800.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Foreign official purchases Net private investment in the US Other (including discrepancy)

What is happening to the US?EXPORTS AND IMPORTS AS A SHARE OF GDP

(current prices, per cent)

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Q1 70Q3 7

1Q1 7

3Q3 7

4Q1 7

6Q3 7

7Q1 7

9Q3 8

0Q1 8

2Q3 8

3Q1 8

5Q3 8

6Q1 8

8Q3 8

9Q1 9

1Q3 9

2Q1 9

4Q3 9

5Q1 9

7Q3 9

8Q1 0

0Q3 0

1Q1 0

3Q3 0

4

US EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES US IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES US NET EXPORTS

What is happening to the US?US REAL EXCHANGE RATE

(JP Morgan, 2000=100)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-7

0Ja

n-72

Jan-7

4Ja

n-76

Jan-7

8Ja

n-80

Jan-8

2

Jan-8

4

Jan-8

6

Jan-8

8

Jan-9

0

Jan-9

2Ja

n-94

Jan-9

6Ja

n-98

Jan-0

0Ja

n-02

Jan-0

4

What is happening to the US?ALTERNATIVE PATHS FOR US NET LIABILITIES

(per cent of GDP)

-120.0%

-100.0%

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Historic export and import trends Imports growing at the export trendExports growing 10% & imports 5% Current account constant share of GDP

What is the rest of the world doing?GLOBAL BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AFTER THE CRISES (1996 and 2004)

-$800 -$600 -$400 -$200 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800

US

Australia

Canada

UK

Old Europe

Old Asia (Japan)

New Asia

Total Asia

Middle East

Rest of World

Anglosphere

Non-Anglosphere

World discrepancy

1996 2004

What is the rest of the world doing?EMERGING MARKET INFLOW RECYCLING ($bn)

-300.0

-250.0

-200.0

-150.0

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003e 2004f

Current account balance Net capital inflow Reserves (- = increase)

What is the rest of the world doing?CURRENCY MOVEMENT AGAINST THE US DOLLAR

(31st December 2002 - 31st March 2005)

-60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

South Africa

New Zealand

Australia

Euro

Sweden

Switzerland

UK Pound

Poland

Canada

South Korea

Japan

Thailand

Singapore

India

Russia

Indonesia

Malaysia

HK Dollar

China

Turkey

Mexico

Argentina

What is the rest of the world doing?RISE OF ASIAN CURRENCY RESERVES ($bn)

$436.5

$397.8

$609.9

$437.2

$1,314.0

$824.3

$241.7

$198.2

$0.0

$500.0

$1,000.0

$1,500.0

$2,000.0

$2,500.0

$3,000.0

$3,500.0

$4,000.0

December 2001-December 04 increase December 2004 global stock

Japan China Taiwan Korea Hong Kong India Singapore Thailand Indonesia rest of Asia rest of the world

How does it look to the creditors?RESERVES AS A PER CENT OF IMPORTS

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

Japan China Taiwan S. Korea HK India Singapore Russia

1996 2000 2004

How does it look to the creditors?STRUCTURE OF US GROSS LIABILITIES 2003

14.6%

23.2%

17.2%

14.0%

5.2%

17.6%

3.0%4.4%

Corporate stocks

Direct Investment at market value

US liabilities report by US banks, notincluded elsewhwereForeign official assets

US treasury securities

Corporate and other bonds

US currency

US liabilities to unaffiliated foreignersreported by US non-banking concerns

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