the changing career outcomes of scientists and engineers in academe: sharon g. levin, grant c....

The Changing Career Outcomes of The Changing Career Outcomes of Scientists and Engineers in Academe:Scientists and Engineers in Academe:

Sharon G. Levin, Grant C. Black, Anne Sharon G. Levin, Grant C. Black, Anne E. Winkler, Paula E. StephanE. Winkler, Paula E. Stephan

The Role of The Role of ImmigrantsImmigrants

AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments

This work was supported by the Alfred P. This work was supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the Andrew Young Sloan Foundation, the Andrew Young

School of Policy Studies, and the School of Policy Studies, and the Graduate School and College of Arts and Graduate School and College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Missouri—Sciences at the University of Missouri—St. Louis. Professors Levin and Stephan St. Louis. Professors Levin and Stephan

are members of the Network on the are members of the Network on the Scientific Workforce administered by the Scientific Workforce administered by the National Bureau of Economic Research National Bureau of Economic Research with resources provided by the Sloan with resources provided by the Sloan

Foundation.Foundation.

BackgroundBackground

The United States has experienced The United States has experienced a significant expansion in the a significant expansion in the number of doctoral degrees number of doctoral degrees

awarded in science and engineering awarded in science and engineering (S&E) over the past three decades.(S&E) over the past three decades.

9,014 21,2359,014 21,235 (1966)(1966) (1996) (1996)


New doctorates, especially in the New doctorates, especially in the biosciences, are experiencing difficulty biosciences, are experiencing difficulty

in obtaining permanent positions in in obtaining permanent positions in academe; the number of temporary academe; the number of temporary

positions, especially postdocs, have positions, especially postdocs, have proliferated.proliferated.

13.8% 17.9%13.8% 17.9% (1979)(1979) (1997) (1997)


The growth in U.S.-trained S&E The growth in U.S.-trained S&E doctorates in the United States has doctorates in the United States has

largely been fueled by foreign largely been fueled by foreign citizens.citizens.

13.7% 20.8%13.7% 20.8% (1979)(1979) (1997) (1997)

The Research QuestionThe Research Question

Are immigrant doctorates in Are immigrant doctorates in S&E displacing their citizen S&E displacing their citizen counterparts from positions counterparts from positions in academe, especially the in academe, especially the

“choice” permanent positions “choice” permanent positions within academe?within academe?

Methodology & DataMethodology & Data

To measure displacement, we pose To measure displacement, we pose the following counterfactual...the following counterfactual...


What would have happened to What would have happened to employment of U.S.-citizen employment of U.S.-citizen

(immigrant) S&E doctorates if their (immigrant) S&E doctorates if their employment had grown at the employment had grown at the overall growth rate for all S&E overall growth rate for all S&E

doctorates combined, regardless of doctorates combined, regardless of citizenship status?citizenship status?


We then compare the actual We then compare the actual employment growth in a specific employment growth in a specific

sector (sector (ACADEMEACADEME, , NONACADEMENONACADEME, , OTHEROTHER) of a specific “citizenship” ) of a specific “citizenship” group (citizen or immigrant) with group (citizen or immigrant) with the amount the amount predictedpredicted using the using the

counterfactual.counterfactual.


Data are from the 1973-1997 Survey of Data are from the 1973-1997 Survey of Doctorate Recipients.Doctorate Recipients.

ACADEMEACADEME refers to those individuals refers to those individuals who are either employed full-time or who are either employed full-time or hold a postdoctoral position in a hold a postdoctoral position in a university, four-year college, or university, four-year college, or medical school.medical school.



NONACADEMENONACADEME refers to those refers to those individuals who are either employed individuals who are either employed full-time or hold a postdoctoral full-time or hold a postdoctoral position in other sectors of the position in other sectors of the economy.economy.



OTHEROTHER refers to “all else” including refers to “all else” including those who are employed part-time, those who are employed part-time, unemployed, or students pursuing unemployed, or students pursuing additional degrees.additional degrees.

Interpreting the AnalysisInterpreting the Analysis

There are There are two reasonstwo reasons why we may why we may observe, for example, that observe, for example, that employment growth for citizens in employment growth for citizens in academe is smaller than predicted academe is smaller than predicted given the counterfactual…given the counterfactual…


First, the citizen share of S&E First, the citizen share of S&E doctorates may have declined doctorates may have declined

((the minting effectthe minting effect).).


Second, citizens may have Second, citizens may have experienced slower experienced slower

employment growth in employment growth in academe than in other sectors academe than in other sectors

((the competitive effectthe competitive effect).).


Thus, to determine whether Thus, to determine whether displacement has occurred—whether displacement has occurred—whether citizens have fared relatively poorly citizens have fared relatively poorly

compared to their immigrant compared to their immigrant counterparts in academe, we subtract counterparts in academe, we subtract the immigrant competitive effect from the immigrant competitive effect from

the citizen competitive effect (both the citizen competitive effect (both measured in percentage terms to adjust measured in percentage terms to adjust

for the difference).for the difference).

Results: displacement from Results: displacement from and within academeand within academe

Over the period 1979-1997, with few Over the period 1979-1997, with few exceptions and all quite small, both exceptions and all quite small, both

immigrant and citizen S&Eimmigrant and citizen S&E doctorates doctorates lost employment sharelost employment share in in academe relative to other sectors. academe relative to other sectors.

Both groups had Both groups had negative negative competitive effectscompetitive effects in this sector. in this sector.


For each field, and without For each field, and without exception, the competitive effects exception, the competitive effects

are larger in absolute value for are larger in absolute value for citizens than for immigrants; thus citizens than for immigrants; thus

citizens have been displacedcitizens have been displaced..


Displacement is greatest for Displacement is greatest for citizens in the citizens in the

mathematical/computer sciencesmathematical/computer sciences and in the and in the biological sciencesbiological sciences..

Displacement from ACADEME, 1979-1997Displacement from ACADEME, 1979-1997

Competitive EffectsCompetitive EffectsDisplacementDisplacement

CitizensCitizens ImmigrantsImmigrants

All Fields CombinedAll Fields Combined -13.9%-13.9% -6.8%-6.8% -7.1%-7.1%

EngineeringEngineering -16.3%-16.3% -8.8%-8.8% -7.5%-7.5%

Life SciencesLife Sciences -11.4%-11.4% -0.7%-0.7% -10.7%-10.7%

Biological SciencesBiological Sciences -12.8%-12.8% 0.8%0.8% -13.6%-13.6%

Physical SciencesPhysical Sciences -19.6%-19.6% -8.2%-8.2% -11.4%-11.4%

Earth/EnvironmentalEarth/Environmental 0.0%0.0% 1.3%1.3% -1.3%-1.3%

ChemistryChemistry -16.3%-16.3% -5.5%-5.5% -10.8%-10.8%

Math/ComputerMath/Computer -29.4%-29.4% -14.6%-14.6% -14.9%-14.9%

Physics and AstronomyPhysics and Astronomy -31.1%-31.1% -22.9%-22.9% -8.2%-8.2%


Most of the displacement of citizens Most of the displacement of citizens from academe, however, can not be from academe, however, can not be attributed to their lack of success in attributed to their lack of success in holding full-time faculty, especially holding full-time faculty, especially permanent, tenure-track positions. permanent, tenure-track positions. This is not true, however, in physics This is not true, however, in physics

and astronomy.and astronomy.

Displacement from ACADEME, 1979-1997Displacement from ACADEME, 1979-1997

From broad From broad sector sector

ACADEMEACADEME

From Tenure-From Tenure-track faculty track faculty

(PERM)(PERM)From temporary From temporary positions positions (TEMP)(TEMP)

All Fields CombinedAll Fields Combined -7.1%-7.1% -0.6%-0.6% -6.5%-6.5%

EngineeringEngineering -7.5%-7.5% -1.0%-1.0% -6.5%-6.5%

Life SciencesLife Sciences -10.7%-10.7% 1.6%1.6% -12.3%-12.3%

Biological SciencesBiological Sciences -13.6%-13.6% 0.8%0.8% -14.4%-14.4%

Physical SciencesPhysical Sciences -11.4%-11.4% -4.0%-4.0% -7.4%-7.4%

Earth/EnvironmentalEarth/Environmental -1.3%-1.3% 14.1%14.1% -15.4%-15.4%

ChemistryChemistry -10.8%-10.8% 3.8%3.8% -14.6%-14.6%

Math/ComputerMath/Computer -14.9%-14.9% -3.2%-3.2% -11.7%-11.7%

Physics and Physics and AstronomyAstronomy

-8.2%-8.2% -6.2%-6.2% -2.0%-2.0%

ImplicationsImplications

Some U.S.-citizen-scientists have Some U.S.-citizen-scientists have likely paid for society-wide gains likely paid for society-wide gains that immigration has fostered in that immigration has fostered in

U.S. science by having been U.S. science by having been involuntarily displacedinvoluntarily displaced from from

positions in academe.positions in academe.

ImplicationsImplications

But the But the ““costscosts”” have probably have probably been mitigated by the been mitigated by the ““pullpull”” of of positions outside academe in positions outside academe in

certain fields.certain fields.

the changing career outcomes of scientists and engineers in academe: sharon g. levin, grant c....

Documents

counterfactual slide

methodology data data

employment of

immigrant doctorates

trained se doctorates

citizen share of se

actual employment growth

specific sector academe