the changing arctic ocean and new marine operations · the changing arctic ocean and new marine...
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The Changing Arctic Ocean and New
Marine Operations
•Rapid Climate Change
•Globalization ~ Arctic Natural Resources
•Regional & Global Geopolitics
•Indigenous Peoples Challenges
NUS CIL - UT JCLOS Governance of Arctic
Shipping Conference ~ 10 Dec 2015
Lawson W. Brigham ~ University of Alaska Fairbanks
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NP90 E90 W
180
0
~ 1500 nm
~ 600 nm
The Arctic ~
Mostly Ocean
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Topics ~ CIL-JCLOS Presentation:
Arctic Myths & Global Links
Changing Arctic Marine Access
Current Arctic Marine Use
AMSA ~ ‘Arctic Shipping’, Scenarios &
Recommendations
Summary ~ Plausible Future
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World Economic Forum Arctic Myths:
#1: The Arctic is an uninhabited, unclaimed frontier with no
regulation or governance.
~ 4M People; $230 B/year economy; jurisdiction: 8 sovereign states.
#2: The region’s wealth of natural resources is readily available for
development.
~ Challenges impeding development: technological, infrastructure,
economic, investment.
#3: The Arctic will become immediately accessible as sea ice
continues to disappear.
~ Greater marine access, not ice-free; land less accessible; polar
darkness, few charts, lack of infrastructure, high insurance.
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World Economic Forum Arctic Myths (Cont.):
#4: The Arctic is tense with geopolitical disputes and is the next
flashpoint for conflict.
~ International cooperation (treaties & forums), peaceful, UNCLOS
sea bed claims submitted in accordance with the rules.
#5: Climate changes in the Arctic are solely of local and regional
importance.
~ Global impacts: energy balance, sea level rise, weather patterns.
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Global Media Coverage :
Chinese Cargo Ship Sets Sail for Arctic
Short-cut (11 August 2013 ~ Financial Times) ~
[Notable: Ob River in Nov/Dec 2012: Hammerfest to Tabeta, Japan]
100 Times to the North Pole (2 August 2013 ~ Barents Observer)
Northern Sea Route Slated for Massive
Growth; A Seasonal Supplement to the
Suez Canal (4 June 2013 ~ The Moscow Times)
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Arctic Council Structure (Nov 2015)Intergovernmental Forum Since 1996 ~ Environmental Protection &
Sustainable Development (U.S. Chair 2015-17)
Arctic States (8) [3 Non-NATO]
Permanent Participants (6) (Indigenous Peoples)
Secretariat: Tromso, Norway
AC Working Groups (6)
AC Task Forces (3)
AC Experts Group (1)
Non-Arctic State Observers: France, Germany, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, United
Kingdom, China, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore, & India (12)
Intergovernmental & Inter-Parliamentary Observer Organizations (9)
Non-government Observer Organizations (11)
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Today’s Maritime Arctic
(200 NM Exclusive Economic Zone)Hypothetical - Future Maritime Arctic
(After UNCLOS Article 76)
The ILULISSAT Declaration
Conference of 5 Coastal States Bordering on the Arctic Ocean (Canada,
Denmark & Greenland, Norway, Russia, USA)
27-29 May 2008 ~ Ilulissat, Greenland
LOS/UNCLOS Provides ‘Solid Foundation’
‘We therefore see no need to develop a new comprehensive international
legal regime to govern the Arctic Ocean.’
(Macnab 2000) (Macnab 2000)
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Lukoil (Russia) &
ConocoPhillips
(USA)
Operator ~ Sovcomflot (Russia)
Builder ~ Samsung (Korea)
Technology ~ Finland, Canada &
USA
The New Maritime Arctic
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U.S. Geological Survey Report ~ July 2008
–13% Undiscovered Oil
–30% Undiscovered Natural Gas
–20% Undiscovered Natural Gas Liquids
“Circum-Arctic Resource
Appraisal: Estimates of
Undiscovered Oil and Gas North
of the Arctic Circle”
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3049/
New Arctic Resource Discoveries
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New Arctic Resource Discoveries
USGS (2008)
Probability of Presence of
Undiscovered Oil and/or Gas
Fields
Coastal Seas
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Arctic Linkages to the Global
Economic System
• International Fishing (10%)
• Hard Minerals ~ Palladium (40%), Nickel (22%),
Diamonds (20%), Platinum (15%), Zinc (10%)
• Estimated Arctic Hydrocarbons ~ Undiscovered Natural
Gas (30%) & Oil (13%)
• Potential: Rare Earths (25%), Coal & Fresh Water
• Global Marine Tourism industry
• Regional Trade to Northern Communities &
Infrastructure Development
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Present Sea Ice Retreat ~ Outside the Range
of Model Projections
2007 2008
2012
2009
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Changing Summer Arctic Sea Ice
Coverage ~ 1979-2012
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Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extents ~
2007 & 2012
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Septembers
2006-2015
red lines=
Polar Class 6
(e.g. commercial
icebreaking ships)
blue lines=
common open-
water ships
Northwest
Passage: 236
Transits
1906-2015
Northern Sea
Route Transits:
28/2013, 31/2014
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Septembers
2040-2059
red lines=
Polar Class 6
(e.g. commercial
icebreaking ships)
blue lines=
common open-
water ships
(“New Trans-Arctic
shipping routes
navigable by
midcentury”, L.C.
Smith and S.R.
Stephenson, PNAS,
2013)
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1 January 1 March
1 April 1 June
Winter &
Spring Months
2014 & 2015
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Maritime Traffic 1 June to 30 November 2013Marine Exchange of Alaska
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Maritime Traffic
1 Jan to 31 May 2013
Marine Exchange of Alaska
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‘Wild Card’ Issue ~ Summer Northern Sea Route Voyages
Linking Arctic Russia & Northern Europe to the Pacific
12 SEPT
31 AUG
7 SEPT NSR Transits:
2011~41(25 RU+16 Int)
2012~46(19+27)
2013~71(44+28)
2014~53 (22+31)
23 JUL
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25 May 1987 ~ North Pole
Soviet Nuclear Icebreaker Sibir
‘A Walk Around the World!’
Icebreaker Transits to the North Pole &
Trans-Arctic Voyages (1977-2015):
• 120 Transits to the North Pole (100 Russia, 7 Sweden, 4 USA, 5 Germany, 3 Canada, 1 Norway)
• Single Non-summer NP Voyage(Sibir Voyage May-June 1987)
• 67 Ship Transits to the NP in 2005-2015
• 7 Trans-Arctic Voyages Via the NP (1991, 1994, 1996, 2005)
‘Clear Evidence of
Central Arctic Ocean
Icebreaker Operations’
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Arctic Council ~ Intergovernmental Forum
AMSA Lead Countries for PAME ~ Canada, Finland & USA
AMSA Focus ~ Marine Safety & Marine Environmental Protection
13 Major Workshops & 14 Town Hall Meetings
Key Challenge ~ Many Non-Arctic Stakeholders
2004 – 2009
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What is ‘Arctic Shipping?
AMSA ~ Holistic View:
What type vessels…..what activity they undertake….what
cargo they may be carrying.
Comprehensive Arctic vessel activity database (annual).
Bulk carriers, container ships, general cargo vessels,
tankers, oil/gas service & supply ships, passengers ships,
government vessels, tug/barges, fishing vessels, pleasure
craft, unknown.
PAME Arctic Ocean Review: Arctic Marine
Operations & Shipping
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Arctic Ministers’ Approval 29 April 2009 ~
Negotiated Recommendations & Text
Table of Contents
• Executive Summary
with Recommendations
• Arctic Marine Geography
Climate & Sea Ice
• History
• Governance
• Current Use/Database
• Scenarios to 2020 & 2050
• Human Dimensions
• Environmental Impacts
● Infrastructure
www.pame.is
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Timeless Arctic Marine Transport:
Indigenous Use of the Arctic Ocean
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AMSA Key Uncertainties for Future
Arctic Marine Transportation
• Stable legal climate
• Radical change in global trade
dynamics
• Climate change is more disruptive
sooner
• Safety of other routes
• Socio-economic impact of global
weather changes
• Oil prices (55-60 to 100-150 USD?)***
• Major Arctic shipping disasters***
• Limited windows of operation
(economics)
• Rapid climate change
• Maritime insurance industry
• China, Japan & Korea become
Arctic maritime nations
• Transit fees
• Conflict between indigenous &
commercial use
• Arctic maritime enforcement
• Escalation of Arctic maritime
disputes
• Shift to nuclear energy***
• New resource discovery
• World trade patterns
• Catastrophic loss or change in
Suez or Panama Canals
• Global agreements on
construction rules and standards
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unstable
& ad-hoc
stable &
rules-based
less demand
more demand
Arctic Race Arctic Saga
Polar Lows Polar Preserve
GOVERNANCE
RE
SO
UR
CE
S
&
TR
AD
EHigh demand and unstable
governance set the stage for
an economic ‘rush’ for Arctic
wealth and resources.
High demand and stable
governance lead to a healthy
rate of development, includes
concern for preservation of
Arctic ecosystems & cultures.
Low demand and unstable
governance bring a murky
and under-developed future
for the Arctic.
Low demand & stable
governance slow development
in the region while introducing
an extensive eco-preserve with
stringent “no-shipping zones”.
AMSA/GBN Scenarios Workshops ~ April & July 2007
The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050
Scenarios on the Future of
Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050
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Enhancing
Arctic Marine
Safety
Protecting
Arctic People
and the
Environment
Building the
Arctic Marine
Infrastructure
AMSA RECOMMENDATIONS (17) ~ THEMES
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Enhancing
Arctic Marine
Safety
Protecting
Arctic People
and the
Environment
Building the
Arctic Marine
Infrastructure
AMSA RECOMMENDATIONS (17) ~ THEMES
• Infrastructure
Deficit
• Arctic Marine
Traffic System+
• Environmental ++++
Response Capacity
• Hydrographic, Met
& Ocean Data
• Indigenous Use+
• Community
Engagement++
• Invasive Species
• Eco-Significant Areas++
• Oil Spill Prevention
• Marine Mammal Impacts
• Reducing Air Emissions
• Arctic State Linkages++
• IMO Measures
• Uniformity of
Governance
• Passenger Ship Safety
• SAR Agreement++++
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Amendments to SOLAS and MARPOL (1 Jan 2017)Commercial Carriers & Passenger Ships (500 tons or more)
• Polar Ship’s Structural & Equipment Standards (IASC Ice
Classes: PC1/ PC7)
• Marine Safety and Lifesaving Equipment
• Training & Experience of Polar Mariners (STCW)
• Polar Ship Certificate (Issued by Flag State; Ship Classes A,B,C)
• Polar Waters Operations Manual (Ship Specific)
• Environmental Rules ~ MARPOL Annexes:
• Annex I ~ Oil & Oily Mixtures (No Discharge)
• Annex II ~ Noxious Liquid Substances (No Discharge)
• Annex IV ~ Sewage
• Annex V ~ Food Waste/Garbage
Elements of the IMO Polar Code
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IMO Polar Code: Maximum Extent of Arctic Waters Application
(U.S. Department of State)
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Summary ~ A Plausible Future Arctic
• Peaceful & Arctic State Cooperation
• More Engagement of the Non-Arctic States
• Storehouse of Vast Natural Resources
• Several Arctic States ~ Natural Resources Critical to
Their National Economies
• Profound Climate Change Influencing the Planet
• Unlikely to Retool Global Trade Routes, But
Increasing Marine Operations
• Increasing Arctic Ocean Protection/Safety Measures
• Strategic & Economic Importance to the Arctic States