the challenge of: food security maggie gill chief scientific adviser rural affairs and environment
TRANSCRIPT
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The Challenge of: Food Security
Maggie Gill
Chief Scientific Adviser
Rural Affairs and Environment
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Origins of the CAP
• 1950s – food supplies could not be guaranteed
• Governments in Europe wanted to encourage increased agricultural productivity to ensure supplies of affordable food for citizens
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EU surpluses over time (1991-2008) for wheat, beef, and butter
European Commission, DG AGRI, Discussion Paper December 2009 – Why do we need a CommonAgricultural Policy?
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Reasons behind food price spike of 2007
• Low projected global stocks/use ratios in 2007/08
• Rapid increase in energy prices
• Significant weakening of the US $
• Export restrictions in a number of countries
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Food in 2010
~ 7 billion people on earth
~ 925 million don’t get enough to eat
~ 1 billion eat diets missing in micronutrients
~ 1 billion eat considerably more than they need (obese)
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2011
Can we produce enough food to feed the global population today?
Yes
Do we succeed in distributing food equitably?
No
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Definition of Food Security
“Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic
access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and
healthy life.”
[FAO, World Food Summit 1996]
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2050Will we be able to feed 9 billion people
sustainably and equitably in 2050?
That depends….
Question addressed by:
Foresight: The Future of Food and farming (2011)
http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-work/projects/current-projects/global-food-and-farming-futures
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Foresight recommends action on:
• More food must be produced sustainably;
• Demand for the most resource-intensive types of food must be contained;
• Waste in all areas of food must be minimised;
• The political and economic governance of food must be improved
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Drivers of future challenges
• Population increases
• Size and nature of per capita demand
• Trade issues in food and land
• Climate change
• Competition for key resources
• Changes in values and ethical stances of consumers
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Future of CAP for Food Security
........needs to incentivise resource efficient food production
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What do we mean by resource efficient?
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Use of Feed concentrate
Million tonnes 1980 2005
Developed countries
668.7 647.4
Developing countries
239.6 602.7
World 908.4 1250.1
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Food Conversion Ratio for Different Systems of Livestock Production
Human Edible Protein Output(kg input/kg output)
Total Protein Intake
Upland lamb 35.7
Upland suckler beef 26.3
‘Cereal’ beef 8.3
Milk 5.6
Pig meat 4.3
Poultry meat 3.0
(Wilkinson, 2011)
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Food Conversion Ratio for Different Systems of Livestock Production
Human Edible Protein Output(kg input/kg output)
Total Protein Intake
Human Edible Intake
Upland lamb 35.7 1.6
Upland suckler beef 26.3 0.92
‘Cereal’ beef 8.3 3.0
Milk 5.6 0.71
Pig meat 4.3 2.6
Poultry meat 3.0 2.1
(Wilkinson, 2011)
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3,500.00
4,500.00
5,500.00
6,500.00
7,500.00
8,500.00
9,500.00
0.00 500.00 1,000.00 1,500.00 2,000.00 2,500.00 3,000.00 3,500.00 4,000.00 4,500.00
MEAL FED/COW (KG)
MIL
K Y
IEL
D/C
OW
(L
ITR
ES
)
Variation in Technical Performance on Farm
Source: CAFRE, DARD
Significant opportunity exists to reduceemissions within current practice .
2,500L difference
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Drivers of future challenges
• Population increases
• Size and nature of per capita demand
• Trade issues in food and land
• Climate change
• Competition for key resources
• Changes in values and ethical stances of consumers
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Highest priority changes to consumption (Foresight report)
• reducing food waste
• reducing consumption of food and drink of low nutritional value16, i.e. fatty and sugary foods, tea, coffee and alcohol
• reducing consumption of meat and dairy products
...... Based on evidence of both health and sustainability benefits
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Global trade in livestock products
Million tonnes 1980 2006
Pig 2.6 10.4
Poultry 1.5 11.1
Cattle 4.3 9.2
Sheep 0.8 1.1
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Scottish meat production by type
Tonnes dry carcass wt
2000 2007
Beef 177,000 188,000
Mutton and lamb 74,000 66,000
Pigmeat 72,000 58,000
Poultry 142,000 97,000
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Take away messages• Pillar 1 support post 2013 needs to
incentivise resource-efficient production
• ‘Resources’ need to include land (food security) and productivity of individual livestock (climate change)
• CAP cannot provide a solution to deal with trade-offs – we each have a responsibility