the cellulose gap
TRANSCRIPT
1
The Cellulose Gap
Franz Martin Haemmerle
“The Cellulose Gap”
(The Future of Cellulose Fibres)
Franz Martin Haemmerle
Updated: Sept. 2011
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The Cellulose Gap
Franz Martin Haemmerle
Population Growth
Need for Food and Textile Fibres
Availability of Arable Land
0%
21%
42%
63%
84%
0%
12%
24%
34%
43%
0% 6%
11% 16%
20%
0%
-1.2% -2.5% -3.7% -4.9% -15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
90%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gro
wth
re
sp
. D
ec
lin
e in
%
Textile fibres demand
Food demand
Poulation
Arable land
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Thomas Robert Malthus: “The Principle of Population“
In 1798, Malthus (*1766, 1834), an English economist, wrote in his “Essay on the Principle of Population”: “Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio, but subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio.“
Point of crisis
(hunger beyond
this point?)
Food production rate:
arithmetic growth
Population growth rate:
geometrical or exponential growth
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Thomas Robert Malthus: “The Principle of Population“
This publication roused a storm of controversy. Malthus failed to foresee the astonishing development of transport and colonisation which took place in the 19th century and which increased so enormously the area from which foodstuffs and raw materials could be drawn. With the advent of the progressive agribusiness (“Post-war Green Revolution”), the use of synthetic fertiliser, pesticides, state-of-the-art irrigation systems and today the genetic engineering were the driving forces for the exponential growth of the food production.
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But today, 200 years later, Malthus’ theory wins a certain confirmation, because the number of malnourished people is growing. The world population growth is outpacing the food supply.
Source: United Nations Statistic
Percentage of Population affected by Undernourishment by Country
Malthusians Misery’s Comeback
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Today more than 1 billion people are hungry
Asia and the Pacific, 642
Sub-Saharan Africa, 265
Latin America and the Caribbean,
53
Near East and North Africa, 42
Developed countries, 15
Source: FAO
2009: in million people
In 1996, world leaders attending the World Food Summit in Rome committed themselves to half the number of undernourished people by 2015. In 1996 we had 825, but today we have more than a billion undernourished people.
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Arable Land
Of the earth’s 149 million km² of land, approximately 17.3 million km² are cultivated.
Arable land: 10.6 % = 15.8 mill. km² Planted with permanent crops: 1.0 % = 1.5 mill. km²
Arable land is land cultivated with crops that are replanted
after each harvest, like all sorts of grains, sugar or cotton. (= annual plants)
Permanent crop land is land cultivated with crops that are
not replanted after each harvest, like citrus, coffee or rubber. (= perennial plants)
The remaining 132 million km² are permanent pastures, forests, barren land and built-on areas.
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The Cellulose Gap
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12.60
12.80
13.00
13.20
13.40
13.60
13.80
14.00
14.20
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61
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62
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63
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64
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08
20
09
Arable land (in million ha)
moving – 5 years – average
Source: FAO
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Franz Martin Haemmerle
Loss of Arable Land
Arable land is currently being lost at the rate of 10 to 20 million hectares per year, caused by desertification, salinisation and urbanisation. Urbanisation alone is responsible for about
3 - 4 million hectares
In 1960 worldwide approximately 4,400 m² of arable land per capita was available, 30 years later merely 2,700 m² and in 2025 most probably only 1,700 m².
Agricultural land is constantly losing soil and fertility,caused by wind and water erosion, nutrient depletion and chemical pollution..
4,400 m²
per capita
2,700
m² p.c.1,700
m² p.c.
3.0 billion5.3 billon
8.0 billion
1960 1990 2025
To secure food production more arable land would be necessary !!
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The Cellulose Gap
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Agricultural Yields
Future production increases can only be reached by an enhancement of the yield per area and not by an expansion of the area.
Intensification of the production requires a much higher input of inorganic fertilisers and pesticides as well as a substantial improvement of the irrigation systems. But ironically all these efforts decrease the yields in the long run.
With an ecological cultivation the inputs of synthetic fertilisers and pesticides can be reduced or avoided, but the yields will be much lower.
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Yield / Genetically Modified Crops
The only practical method to reduce the input of pesticides and to increase the yield at the same time is the use of genetically modified crops. Several of the important crops are already genetically engineered
soybeans, maize, cotton and canola (a variety of rapeseed).
Genetic engineering is an absolute necessity for the nutrition and for the environment !!
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Global Adoption Rates for Principal Biotech Crops (2010; in % and in million ha)
Over the last years the area planted with gene-modified crops is growing by 10 million hectares p.a. and has reached 148 million hectares in 2010.
73
21
46
7
17
12
112
24
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
81%Soybean
64%Cotton
29%Maize
23%Canola
mil
lio
n h
ec
tars
Conventional
Biotech
Source: ISAAA
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Genetically Engineered Crops
Genetic engineering offers faster crop adaptation as well as a more biological, rather than a chemical approach to yield increases. Refusing genetic engineering makes the food problem even more daunting. People have been genetically modifying plants for more than 10,000 years.
“Genetic engineering is nothing else as the shortening of the evolution.”
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Conclusion
In the near future we will have a desperate shortage of fertile farmland.
Arable land on which non-food crops are growing today has to be used more and more for food crops in the future. Food crops should be used for feeding people, not for
animal feed or bio-fuels.
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Cotton: Harvested Area 1945/46 – 2010/11 Over the last 60 years the area – on which cotton was grown – fluctuated between 29 and 36 million hectares. The area will be dependent upon the prices for food and cotton, but will certainly shrink in future.
28 million ha ?
Source: USDA
36.0
29.3
35.9
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
million hectars
= 1.8 -2.3% of arable land
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The Cellulose Gap
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Cotton: Decline of planted areas
In many countries the cotton growing area is declining; e.g. in the States.
Source: USDA
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,00019
83/8
4
19
84/8
5
19
85/8
6
19
86/8
7
19
87/8
8
19
88/8
9
19
89/9
0
19
90/9
1
19
91/9
2
19
92/9
3
19
93/9
4
19
94/9
5
19
95/9
6
19
96/9
7
19
97/9
8
19
98/9
9
19
99/0
0
20
00/0
1
20
01/0
2
20
02/0
3
20
03/0
4
20
04/0
5
20
05/0
6
20
06/0
7
20
07/0
8
20
08/0
9
20
09/1
0
20
10/1
1
mil
lio
n h
ec
tars
Cotton farmers in the US, in China and in Europe can only survive with the help of subsidies.
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Cotton: Yield 1945/46 – 2009/10
For the next two decades the yield will certainly increase, because of the intensified cultivation of genetically modified cotton.
925 kg/ha ?
China
India
US
Pakistan Uzbekistan
Brazil
12.0%
31.6%
22.7%
9.5%
5.4%
3.8%
%
Yield in 2009/10
and share (%) of
global production
Source: USDA
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Cotton: Production 1896/97 – 2010/11
Source: USDA, ICAC
26.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
million metric tons
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Future Production of Cotton
arable land is declining or deteriorating
land loss and soil degradation
area for food has to be expanded the cotton production sinks because more and
more farmers decide to cultivate plants which contribute to the nutrition and bring higher and primarily safer incomes
In future less land will be available for cotton growing !!
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The Cellulose Gap
Franz Martin Haemmerle
Assumption of Cotton Production for the next two Decades
Year Area mill. ha
(assumption)
Yield kg/ha
(assumption)
Theoretical maximum production
mill. metric tons
2015 31.0 850 26.35
2020 30.0 875 26.25
2025 29.0 900 26.10
2030 28.0 925 25.90
When the planted area drops to approximately 28.0 million hectares until 2030 and the yield increases to 925 kg/ha, the maximum possible production of cotton will be around 26 million metric tons per year.
Cotton Year
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
Production (in mill. tons)
22.0
24.9
26.9
Consumption
25.3
24.4
24.7
Source: ICAC projection (Sept. 1, 2011)
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Franz Martin Haemmerle
Cotton Price
During the last two years the price has risen strongly. With the stagnation or with the decline of the production the price will even out certainly above the 10-year average of 60 cents/lb.
Source: National Cotton Councils of America
Season average: 2008/09 62 cents/lb
2009/10 78
2010/11 164
64.13
37.22
76.77
48.60
81.54
51.50
229.6
114.1
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170
220
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US cents/lb "A" Index (Jan 2001 - Aug 2011)
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Cotton Price – FAO Food Price Index
The FAO Food Price Index (2002 – 2004 = 100%) shows a similar trend.
Source: National Cotton Councils of America
20
70
120
170
220
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US cents/lb
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
in %
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Franz Martin Haemmerle
World Population Prospects
Growth of World Population (2005 – 2030)
Source: World Population Prospects (Medium Variant);
United Nations, Population Division;
The 2008 Revision Population Database.
During the next 20 years the world population will increase by 1.4 billion people.
1.4 billion
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Fibre Consumption per Capita (1900 – 2010)
2nd World War
in 10-annual steps in 5-annual steps in annual steps
Economic Crash
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Franz Martin Haemmerle
Future Textile Fibres Consumption 2010 -2030
(assumption for 2015 – 2030)
Future Per Capita Textile Fibres Consumption 2010 - 2030
(assumption for 2015 - 2030)
Income and population growth are the major factors driving increases in textile consumption. Over the next 5 years the per capita fibre consumption will grow around 2.5% p.a., in the following years the growth rate will decline to 1.5%.
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Franz Martin Haemmerle
Historical and Future Development
of Fibre and Filament Consumption
Year Wool Cotton Man-made
cellulosic fibres
Synthetic
fibres
Total %-age of
cellulosic fibres
Historical Data
1900 0.7 3.2 0.0 0.0 3.9 82.1
1920 0.8 4.6 0.0 0.0 5.4 85.2
1940 1.1 6.9 1.1 0.0 9.1 87.9
1960 1.5 10.1 2.7 0.7 15.0 85.3
1980 1.6 13.8 3.5 10.8 29.7 58.2
2000 1.4 18.9 2.8 28.4 51.5 42.1
2005 1.2 24.8 3.3 37.0 66.3 42.4
2010 1.2 21.8 4.2 45.3 72.5 35.9
Future (assumption)
2015 est. 1.2 26.4* 6.2 53.6 87.4 37.2
2020 est. 1.2 26.3* 10.3 65.0 102.8 35.6
2025 est. 1.2 26.1* 14.8 76.1 118.2 34.6
2030 est. 1.2 25.9* 19.0 87.4 133.5 33.6
* Possible peak production
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The Cellulose Gap
Franz Martin Haemmerle
Share of Fibre Production
(in %)
1900 - 2030 (assumption for 2015 – 2030)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 2015est.
2020est.
2025est.
2030est.
millio
n m
etr
ic to
ns
Synthetic
Cellulosic
Cotton
Wool
Cellulosic: Viscose, Lyocell, Modal, Acetate, Cupro, Triacetate
33% 37%
Cellulose Gap
Fibre Production
(in mill. tons)
1900 – 2030 (assumption for 2015 – 2030)
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The Cellulose Gap
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Fibre Production
The per capita fibre consumption will grow.
The production of natural fibres will remain constant or shrink.
The growth of total fibre consumption can only be covered by man-made fibres.
Certain properties of cellulosic fibres cannot be substituted by petroleum-based synthetics (Polyester, Polyacrylonitrile, Polyamide, Polypropylene and others).
Cellulosic fibres (cotton and man-made cellulosic fibres) will
make up 33 – 37% of the fibre market.
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Man-made Cellulosic Fibres as a Substitute of Cotton
Cotton and man-made cellulose fibres are hydrophilic and stand for absorbency and breathability. These inherent physiological fibre properties are ideal for the moisture management. The fibres can absorb sufficient moisture, which they then release into the surrounding air. This function ensures an adequate temperature balance on the skin, especially where textiles touch the skin. For these reasons cellulosic fibres are ideal in various fields of application in textile and garment industry for
woven and knitted fabrics
nonwovens
Man-made cellulose fibres are an ideal substitute for cotton !!
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Man-made Cellulosic Fibres as a Substitute for Cotton
Viscose Viscose-
Blends
Lyocell Lyocell-
Blends
Modal
Modal-
Blends
Woven and knitted fabrics
Apparel
Underwear
Knits
Bottom weights
Active wear
Socks
Shirts / Blouses
Home textiles
Bed linen
Towels
Filling
Nonwovens
Cleaning rags
Sanitary articles
Baby wipes
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The Cellulose Gap
Franz Martin Haemmerle
Estimated Demand of Man-Made Cellulosic Fibres (assumption for 2015 – 2030)
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The Cellulose Gap
Franz Martin Haemmerle
Estimated per Capita Consumption of Cellulosic Fibres (assumption for 2015 – 2030)
Cellulose
Gap
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Fibre Consumption resp. Production
Growth Rate in %
8.1
3.4 3.8
10.9
3.9
3.3
7.3
3.2 2.8
5.1
2.8 2.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Man-made cellulosefibres
Petroleum-basedsynthetics
Total (incl. natural fibres)
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
The demand of man-made cellulose fibres will increase disproportionally.
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Sustainability
Sustainability
Ecology
A sustainable fibre production tries to achieve three goals
to effect the environment in a positive way ( ecology), to be economical and profitable ( economy) and to enhance the quality of life ( social responsibility).
Economy
Social
responsibility
In all three fields man-made cellulose fibres show better results than cotton.
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Sustainability of Cotton
The sustainability of cotton is strongly dependent on
consumption of pesticides and fertilisers gene-modified cotton (70%) or conventional cotton (30%)
with different cultivation system • conventional • IPM (Integrated Pest Management) • organic (<1%)
water consumption rain-fed (<40%) irrigated (>60%)
• 97% flood or furrow irrigation (20-50% water efficiency) • 2% mobile irrigation systems (80-90% water eff.) • 1% drip irrigation (90-98% water eff.)
land use (resp. yield) but in comparison to man-made cellulose fibres – like Viscose, Lyocell or Modal – cotton is not sustainable at all.
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Sustainability of Cellulosic Fibres
Fibres with prefixes as “eco-”, “bio-”, “natural-” and “organic-” are not always sustainable. For example water consumption is not a criterion for the certification as organic cotton. This proves that even “bio” is not unavoidable “eco”. Life cycle analyses also show that man-made cellulosic fibres have much smaller carbon footprint compared to cotton. For the production of man-made cellulose fibres no pesticides and synthetic fertilisers are needed. The natural origin of man-made cellulosic fibres from the renewable resource wood contributes to a sustainable future.
The substitution of cotton by man-made cellulose fibres is also a contribution to environmental protection !!
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Water requirement for one kg of fibres
litr
e w
ate
r
Irrigated cotton in a hot environment requires 20 - 35 times more water than cellulose fibres.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Lyocell Viscose Modal GM-cotton(1,200kg/ha)
IPM cotton(1,000kg/ha)
conventionalcotton
(850 kg/ha)
organiccotton
(700 kg/ha)
265 445 470
8,300
10,000
11,700
14,300
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2.5%
Freshwater
97.5%
Salt water
1.4 billion km³
How much water is available?
0.4%
0.8%
30.1%
68.7%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Lakes, rivers etc
Permafrost
Undergroundwater
Ice and glaciers
= 140,000 km³
or 0,01%
Source: UNESCO; WWAP
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More than 70 per cent of world freshwater consumption is used for irrigation and 60 per cent of the irrigation water is wasted due to inappropriate techniques. Intensive irrigation, especially flood or furrow irrigation, can cause waterlogging with a catastrophic long-term effect, salinisation. Approximately one third of the world population suffers from water shortage today, up to the year 2025 this share most likely will expand to two thirds and the number of conflicts between different countries is likely to rise.
Water requirement
Water will become the oil of the future !!
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One of the biggest environmental disasters was caused by cotton. The Aral Sea was the 4th biggest freshwater sea on earth, which has nearly disappeared over the last three decades, by using the water of the rivers for irrigation.
Water requirement
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
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Areas required for one tonne of fibres
he
cta
res
The humanity needs more land for food !!
Compared to cotton cultivation, the yield of cellulose fibre from Central European beech forests and from fast-growing eucalyptus is much higher.
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Lyocell Viscose Modal irrigated cotton(1,000 kg/ha)
rain-fed cotton(500 kg/ha)
0.24
0.69 0.70
1.00
2.00
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Sustainability Ranking of Cellulosic Fibres
Man-made Cellulose Fibres Cotton
Lenzing
Viscose
Austria
Lyocell
(Tencel)
Lenzing
Modal
Lenzing
Viscose
Asia
Gen-modified
70%
Organic
1%
IPM
5-10% Conventional
20-25%
Environ-
mental
impacts
Use of pesticides
(+ human impact) no no no no little
no
high
huge
Synthetic fertilizer,
manure no very lttle no no synthetic fertilizer
(little)
only natural
manure synthetic fertilizer
(high)
synthetic fertilizer
(very high)
Soil degradation,
depletition, ecoto-
xicity, acidification,
eutrophication, etc
Resources Cumulative energy
demand
Land use,
yield
forest land
forest land
forest land forest land agricultural land
110 -120%
agricultural land
70 – 80%
agricultural land
80 – 90%
agricultural land
100%
Water consumption
(incl. process +
irrigation water)
rain-fed rain-fed rain-fed rain-fed rain-
fed
irrig. rain-
fed
irrig. rain-
fed
irrig. rain-
fed
irrig.
Fibre quality (spinnability, waste) excellent excellent excellent excellent good reduced good good
Sustainability Points 26 24 24 21 21 19 20 16 15 12 13 10
Ranking 1 2 2 4 4 7 6 8 9 11 10 12
rain-fed cotton <40%
irrigated cotton >60% 4 3 2 1 0
sustainable
yes no
30 – 50%
higher fibre
price
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Final Conclusion
Companies which today are using mainly cotton will have to add man-made cellulose fibres to their production programme.
Man-made cellulose fibres are in contrary to cotton extremely sustainable fibres.
In comparison to cotton man-made cellulose fibres have some important assets
- no arable land is necessary, the trees (eucalyptus and beeches) for
the pulp production are growing in forests or on marginal land, - less water consumption, - no input of pesticides and fertilizers.
The substitution of cotton by man-made cellulose fibres is an
important step in order to protect our environment.
Man-made cellulose fibres are real ecological fibres !!
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Franz Martin Haemmerle
Franz Martin Haemmerle
Arenberggasse 1/5
A-1030 Vienna /Austria
Email: [email protected]
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Demand of man-made cellulose fibres (Sensitivity analysis)
World
population
Textile fibres per
head consumption
Total fibre
demand Share of cellulose
fibres
Demand for cellulose
fibres
Demand for man-made
cellulose fibres
Cotton
harvested area Yield
Cotton production
X
X X
= variables