Risky businessThere’s a two percent chance the sky is falling

Neal McLoughlin

Alberta Agriculture

and Forestry

November 22, 2017

Edmonton, AB

CIF-IFC RMS

Technical Workshop

THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Jonathan Hayward

Risk-Based Planning

Wildfire Management Planning

Annual Burn Rate

Risk Management

Risk : effect of uncertainty on objectives

CAN/CSA-ISO 31000-10

Organizational Objectives

Organizational Objectives

Risk Tolerance

Consequence

Extreme(5)

RR I I I I

Major(4)

RR RR I I I

Moderate(3)

CI CI RR RR RR

Minor(2)

M M CI CI CI

Insignificant(1)

M M M M CI

Remote(1)

Unlikely(2)

Possible(3)

Likely(4)

Most Likely(5)

Likelihood

Fort McMurray Risk Layers

Validation of Simulated Fire Likelihood

Risk Tolerance

Consequence

Extreme(5)

RR I I I I

Major(4)

RR RR I I I

Moderate(3)

CI CI RR RR RR

Minor(2)

M M CI CI CI

Insignificant(1)

M M M M CI

Remote(1)

Unlikely(2)

Possible(3)

Likely(4)

Most Likely(5)

Likelihood

Bowtie Analysis

https://sitesafety.ca/risk-management-solutions/the-bowtie-method/

Ignition Cause by Season

Where do human-caused fires start?

Where do evacuation fires start?

Beverly and Bothwell (2011)

Risk Treatment

• The following treatment options were considered:

– Taking or increasing risk in order to pursue an opportunity;

– Changing the likelihood;

– Changing the consequences/impact;

– Sharing the risk with another party or parties; and

– Retaining the risk by informed decision.

Consequence

Extreme(5)

RR I I I I

Major(4)

RR RR I I I

Moderate(3)

CI CI RR RR RR

Minor(2)

M M CI CI CI

Insignificant(1)

M M M M CI

Remote(1)

Unlikely(2)

Possible(3)

Likely(4)

Most Likely(5)

Likelihood

1. Landscape-level

containment plans

2. Integrate wildfire risk into

municipal and FireSmart

Community plans.

3. Enhance prevention

measures to aggressively

target human-caused

ignitions.

4. Upgrade municipal and

industrial communication

and clarify accountabilities

for evacuation.

Risk Treatment

Evaluation and Residual Risk

• Risk remaining after risk treatment

– NOTE 1 Residual risk can contain unidentified risk.

– NOTE 2 Residual risk can also be known as “retained risk”.

Alex Alexeev [https://www.projectdecisions.org/index-cartoon-riskanalysis1.html]

Success = Planning x Implementation

http://stressguide101.blogspot.ca/2013/03/what-is-your-success-formula.html

Community Resilience

Community Resilience

http://www.shopfloor.co.nz/property/restart-container-mall/

Rod Mcguirk/APhttp://cdn.newsapi.com.au

Community Resilience

• Ability to self-organize and source diverse experiences and

knowledge.

– Increased community initiatives

• Shared responsibility for decision making and actions.

– Participatory governance

– Trust and credibility

• Adaptation to multiple possible trajectories and agents of

change

– Replaces notion that stability or returning to pre-existing state are

both desirable and achievable

• Built in conjunction with other aspects of community

development.

Opportunities

• Risk Analysis

– Spatial and numerical quantification of expected wildfire impacts.

– Mapping ecological benefits of fire.

• Risk Treatment

– Evaluation and communication of mitigation, preparedness,

response, and recovery strategies with respect to risk reduction.

• Implementation

– Balancing operational top-down strategies (prevention) with

adaptive social learning and bottom-up resilience (recovery).