Some Advice Received from the Academy

The Biofuel Delusion + reflections on teaching ecological economics

With application to ZeroCarbonBritain 2030 (CAT)Nick Bardsley, University of Reading"The Biofuel Delusion"

Source: Giampietro and Mayumi (2009) The Biofuel Delusion; hereafter G&MEcosystem MetabolismIn a zoo:4 tigers / 10,000m2; 250kg each = 0.1kg/m2

Zoo maintains distance from thermodynamic equilibrium by importing food (operating as open system)

Equivalent forest area supporting 4 tigers = 5000 x 10,000m2 = 50km2

Source: Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi: http://ourenergyfutures.org/page-titre-The_bizarre_story_of_the_Liquid_Biofuels-cid-17.html

Source: Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi: http://ourenergyfutures.org/page-titre-The_bizarre_story_of_the_Liquid_Biofuels-cid-17.html

Source: Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi: http://ourenergyfutures.org/page-titre-The_bizarre_story_of_the_Liquid_Biofuels-cid-17.htmlA Biofuel Society?Fossil fuel scenario = 20 GJ/capita/yrmetabolic rate ES = 2 000 000 000 J/hr= 2,000 MJ/hr(840 GJ/capita/yr) & (10hrs/capita/yr) metabolic rate ES = 84,000, 000 000 J/hr = 84,000 MJ/hr

We would need to boost the power level in the energy sector by a factor of 40 (source: G&M)

So how much could biofuel substitute for fossil fuel?

Source: G&M8Human labour is a fund flow! Necessarily limited. 8

MacKay (2008): Sustainable Energy Without the Hot AirBiomass Harvestable power = 100 W/m2 = 2% (max); 2 W/m2realistically 0.5 W/m2

Smil (2003): max. 0.05W/m2: biofuels: energy for energy, infrastructureEstimates of Land Use and Labour Requirements with O/I at 1.1/1Italy: 121GJ/c/yr30% of liquid transport fuel = (corn ethanol)94% of work hours in the energy sector>7x land currently in agricultural production (G&M)

USA: 300GJ/c/yr10% of liquid transport fuel = (corn ethanol)48% of potential labour supply hours>31 x land currently in agricultural production (G&M)

Zero Carbon Britain 2030: 112.6 tWh/yr = 0.4EJ/yr NetGross liquid fuel supply requirement of 4.4EJ247,000,000t odm/yr = 15m ha = >2.5x arable land in GB ~70% landAssumes i) conversion of odm to LF powered by odm ii) 16 t/ha/yr Miscanthus yield = top of the stated range (1-16t)(own calculations)

This shows a net injection of energy from biofuels. But this implies a gross output of biofuels 11x this amount if the output/input ratio is comparable to that of first generation biofuels (1.1/1). Internal 'energy for energy' loops are not shown. (Diagram from ZeroCarbonBritain 2030, p368)What properties would '2nd gen' biofuels need to do better?"When looking for an alternative energy source to oil, it is completely irrelevant whether the output/input ratio is 1.5/1, 1.2/1 or 1.8/1. Any energy source with an output/input of energy carriers below 5/1 has little chance of becoming a useful energy source for modern society."Giampietro & Mayumi (2009, p236)

Ive been unable to locate peer-reviewed O/I figures for Miscanthus accounting for the energy-for-energy loopConclusionG&M = an impossibility theorem for agrobiofuelsbar for '2nd generation' biofuels set very highburden of proof is on proponents to demonstrate very high O/I ratios, spatial accommodation, independence from ffOR restrict to a minor role in a peak-oil economy

Liquid transport fuel and land use in ZCB appear to need rethinking On trying to teach climate change (ecological) economics"The Real World! Eurrrrrrghhhhhhhh!!! .. I actually don't think they [NGOs, think tanks, other disciplines] are closer to the real world than we are."Reader in economics (mainstream)Context: leaving an economics department without an economics job lined up

Implication? we can understand the real world best by prioritising modelling abstractions

you have to be very careful when you are criticising things people make a living fromIt's actually rare for academics to debate fundamental issues it's not quite the done thing!Its not just a feature of economics departments

16

Introduced new MSc 2011/12

External referee: Richard Douthwaite

Compulsory modules in: i) ecological economics of climate change

ii) Climate change policy and governance

Currently: Lecturer in Climate Change Economics, University of ReadingThe School established, in an incremental and piecemeal fashion, a relationship with Libya. Before a global company embarks upon a relationship with a foreign partner, a due diligence assessment should be conducted. No similar exercise took place in this case. The links were allowed to grow, unchecked and to a degree unnoticed, until their effect was overwhelming. In October 2009, the LSEs Council resolved that the links should be monitored carefully in future. That monitoring came too late. By October 2009 the relationship with Libya had been well established.Woolf Report (2011) section 1.13Dangers of Indiscriminate Fundraising in Academia Disciplinary ReinforcersResearch The RAE (aka REF) Mono-disciplinary grant review panelsMainstream enshrined in government e.g. "Green book"TeachingCovering absencesExternal examinersBest known approaches, institutions attract applicants Labour market (govt departments, business; mainstream economics = technological optimism)Disciplinary ReinforcersGeneral

Power asymmetries within Universities; increasing minimum grant sizes

Understaffing: no time to learn anything new!Robert Ulanowitz: AscendencyAFEDBCRobert Ulanowicz: AscendencyAFEDB Tendency for ecosystem linkages to become more concentrated over time Emergence of mutually-beneficial sub-systems; these become more prominent The most 'cooperative' elements are most robust, less cooperative elements fall away"Ecology: the Ascendent Perspective"Why bother?

Students are highly appreciative of courses that theorise and engage with real world issues and processes, as opposed to teaching modelling developed in isolation from facts and data