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ThE Big DEBATE

‘Do you believe the European Commission should impose trade duties on Chinese module manufacturers?’ Now there’s a

question. We put together this cross panel interview two weeks before we went to press – just before the recent trade duties

announcement – and the answers we received were pleasingly polarised. Find out what our interviewees thought later on in the interview and soak-up their thoughts in this, perhaps our biggest

and best-ever roundtable. Let battle commence!

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Contributors

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Dr ChriS JarDinESenior Researcher at Oxford University’s Environmental Change Institute, Technical Director of Joju Solar

GorDon WyliEMember of a UK Energy Policy Working Group, and founder of the Free Green Electricity Corporation (FGEC)

Dr. hEnry SnaithLecturer in photovoltaics at Oxford University and Founder and Chief Scientific Officer of Oxford Photovoltaics

Dr. MiChaEl StEinFounder, Trillion Fund

riCharD FittonTechnical Manager at University of Salford’s unique Energy Hub

StavroS taSSoSSolar Energy Leader, Mott MacDonald

PES: Welcome to the magazine. Before we head into the main issues of the day, can you tell our readers a little about your role, and how your organisation is involved in the solar industry?

Chris Jardine: I’ve got two jobs really! My main role is as the Technical Director of Joju Solar, a solar PV installation company, covering the domestic, commercial and community sectors. Additionally I’m also a Senior Researcher at the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford where I’ve looked at PV and other microgeneration from technology, policy and economic angles. So I’ve got a pretty unique view on the industry, from a high level academic perspective to real on-the-ground issues.

Gordon Wylie: After more than 20 years working within large organisations in the consulting engineering, management consultancy and telecoms sectors, I wanted a new challenge as an entrepreneur.

I decided to create a new company in the renewable energy sector to help the environment and the wider society – I just needed a vision! The seeds of this vision came to me when the Department of Energy & Climate Change introduced Feed-In Tariffs (FITs) in April 2010 to encourage investment in microgeneration of renewable energy. This provided the opportunity for my new venture and I began researching the sector. Solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation seemed to be the most attractive in the short term.

As a member of a UK Energy Policy Working Group from 2009 - 2011 I gained a number of key insights into the sector. This Working Group (comprising Chartered Engineers with MBAs) was organised by the Sainsbury Management Fellowship (www.

smf.org.uk) to influence UK Government energy policy to meet both energy security and climate change targets.

Recently I have been working within a global consulting network which has enabled me to develop a number of useful business contacts. I realised that I needed a business partner with complementary skills to create a successful business and through this network I have established a working relationship with a Chartered Accountant who has a wide range of commercial experience as a Finance Director. We have worked together on strategic planning, fund raising and profit improvement assignments across a range of sectors including renewable energy.

In August 2010 we set up the Free Green Electricity Corporation (FGEC). Our company installs free solar PV systems on the roofs of commercial and residential properties to generate electricity to be used by the property occupiers. FGEC delivers a return to its investors by collecting the index-linked, Government-regulated revenues from the ‘Big 6’ UK electricity suppliers for all of the electricity generated by our PV systems.

henry Snaith: I am CSO and founder of Oxford Photovoltaics Ltd (Oxford PV), a new technology company scaling up the processing and manufacture of solid-state printable solar cells for the building integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) market. BIPV is when photovoltaic solar cells are used directly as the cladding of a building, as opposed to being bolted onto the existing framework. By integrating the photovoltaics into the building construction, vastly enhanced aesthetics are possible, in addition to reduction in costs associated with frames and supports. Oxford PV aims

to commercialise a game changing technology which will eventually result in all, or at least most, glass cladding in buildings being photovoltaic.

richard Fitton: I’m the Energy Hub technical manager; I have the responsibility for the day-to-day management and co-ordination of the University of Salford’s unique energy research and testing facilities. The University of Salford has an international reputation for undertaking world-class research into the energy and low carbon sector and has developed significant testing and analysis facilities, including the Salford Energy House and our newly opened solar research and prototyping facility.

Our research facilities are used by world leading academics and researches to work collaboratively with industry, from small start-ups through to multi-national organisations. For example:

Our recently refurbished Wolfson Chemical Vapour Deposition (CVD) Laboratory, which has been funded by a £250,000 Wolfson Foundation Grant from the Royal Society. These new labs will allow our leading academics and researchers to develop and test the depositing of thin coatings onto glass that can reduce heat loss from windows or improve solar cell efficiencies.

The world’s first fully functioning test house within an environmentally controllable chamber, which has part-funded by a European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) grant. The unique Energy House, allows our academics and researchers to work collaboratively with industry to test and develop new and innovate solutions, products and technologies to improve the energy efficiency of existing properties.

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To complement these facilities, and to support the next step on a low carbon transition, is our newly opened solar prototyping and testing facility. Equipped with industry standard solar PV manufacturing equipment, the facility will give businesses in the region a space where they can test new designs, configurations and installation methods for solar panels.

Stavros tassos: I’m Mott MacDonald’s Solar Energy Leader, a role which covers both PV and CSP, and we assist clients in either the Owner’s or Lender’s Engineer role for utility-scale projects across the world. We also advise governments on renewable energy policy and the design and implementation of incentive programmes.

As a multidisciplinary consultancy Mott MacDonald advises on all aspects of projects, including development, technical, commercial, environmental and social, and has advised on more than 4GW of solar projects globally. We typically undertake feasibility studies and energy yield assessments, procurement support and contract negotiations, site supervision and construction monitoring, operations monitoring, technology bankability assessments, due diligence exercises for lenders and investors, amongst others.

PES: When we talked to our roundtable interviewees at the end of last year, they were cautiously optimistic about the prospects for 2013. We’re almost halfway through the year; do you share their optimism?

Chris Jardine: Yes, cautiously optimistic is about right still. We’re seeing the signs of recovery after last year’s policy interventions in terms of market activity but still a long way to go before the industry is thriving not surviving. The big news this year is the take-off of solar fields in the UK, which opens up exciting new opportunities.

henry Snaith: The PV industry is still in a state of flux, but with that massive opportunity exists. With the continuous drop in price of crystalline Silicon PV from China, it is apparent that any new ‘emerging’ PV technology must either deliver something dramatically different to

c-Si, or compete very closely on efficiency. The technology being developed by Oxford PV has the potential to do both.

Michael Stein: We most definitely share their optimism. The April 2012 McKinsey report of solar PV (Dark Before the Dawn) showed a remarkable reduction in the cost of installed solar PV (below $1/W) and already it looks like they were too cautious with actual costs being lower than expected, blowing through their most optimistic prediction. And even with their cautious figures, they estimated a trillion dollars of investment into solar PV over the next 10 years.

richard Fitton: Yes, we agree with their caution, however we feel that the launch of the Government’s Green Deal has started to rejuvenate the market for domestic solar PV, and consumer interest in energy efficiency and renewables. Coupled with the ever rising fuel bills, more and more people consumers are looking at ways in which they can reduce their bills.

The uncertainty about the FITs has now gone and there is clear direction and policy around any future changes, and with this stability more and more investors are starting to reinvest in solar schemes. Coupled with the continuing reduction in manufacturing costs and continued investment into innovation around improving panel efficiencies and output, the sector is starting to see a return on investment similar to two years ago.

Take-up is being monitored more clearly, and policy is now being driven by small scale installation rather than solar farms, which we feel will kick-start the domestic installation sector again.

Stavros tassos: There has indeed been widespread ‘cautious optimism’ in the industry for some time; and as expected, there has been a mixture of good and bad news in the solar energy sector in the first half of the year. In CSP, we see a large number of projects now going ahead, following a period of relative stagnation. In PV, despite some notable exits from the market or bankruptcies, we still see large projects going ahead as planned, and not looking at country-specific markets –some of which may see reduced growth in 2013-

but at the global market, there is currently little evidence to suggest a slow-down.

PES: What is the single biggest obstacle facing your sector of the industry right now? how would you propose removing it?

Chris Jardine: The biggest single obstacle remains a hangover from the poorly handled tariff degressions of 2012. Whilst the residential and commercial markets are slowly picking up, it is proving very slow to regain market confidence. Sadly the media messaging last year was “Government have slashed solar feed-in tariffs, so solar doesn’t work anymore”. Whilst this isn’t true as costs have come down as well, we’re just not seeing the levels of good quality leads that we saw in 2011 and early 2012.

It’s a slow process to turn that round, people will need to see solar going in on their neighbour’s house, and that might spark interest. I think a solid statement from Government could have helped regain market confidence, but perhaps a bit late now. In terms of practical action now I’d like to see some feed-in tariffs undergo a process of ‘anagression’.

Anagression is the opposite of degression – that is to say I’d like to see tariffs have the flexibility to increase if target installation levels are not met. In a market, it doesn’t make sense to tie yourself into just downward movement in FiT levels. Anagression is needed to correct a) errors in the initial setting of tariff levels b) any increase in commodity prices (silicon, steel, aluminium, glass etc) increasing component prices and c) sudden shocks to the system such as those that may come from EU import duties on Chinese panels.

Gordon Wylie: The lack of a consistent, holistic, strategic view of UK energy policy from all parts of the coalition government. For example, the Treasury has given the impression that it favours the lowest cost source of energy available in the short term whereas DECC (Department of Energy & Climate Change) is focused on a sustainable, cost-effective solution over the longer term. This inter-governmental tension has created significant uncertainties for consumers, suppliers and investors throughout the energy sector.

The creation of an effective energy policy has also been inhibited by single issue-lobbying by groups representing each source of energy and also by the views of the large fossil fuel producers, and the ‘Big 6’ energy generators and suppliers ‘drowning out’ new ideas and developments. It is important for the solar PV sector to recognise that it is only one important part of a multi-faceted sustainable energy solution for UK plc. Energy supply should not be seen as a ‘zero sum’ game (where one form of energy can only succeed at the expense of one or more alternative forms) for

“This inter-governmental tension has created significant uncertainties for consumers, suppliers and investors

throughout the energy sector” Gordon Wylie

Member of a UK Energy Policy Working Group, and founder of the Free Green Electricity Corporation (FGEC)

1963-2013

Y E A R S

www.spitzenberger.de

POWER AMPLIFIERAUTOMOTIVEPHOTOVOLTAIC EMC TESTING

Photovoltaic SimulatorsTesting of solar inverters

according to EN 50530

2-/4-Quadrant AmplifiersTesting of drive systems /

battery simulations

AC/DC 4-Quadrant AmplifiersCurrent and voltage sources /

power system simulation

Basic EMC SystemFully compliant emission

and immunity tests

V:0...950V / I:0...1250AP:0...400kW / t transient:

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the market participants since UK plc’s success will create energy growth opportunities as manufacturing becomes more automated with an increased energy intensity. UK plc will be successful in the longer term if it has a sustainable energy mix which is cost- effective, secure and environmentally friendly.

It is widely recognised that the UK is facing an ‘energy gap’ over the next few years during which energy demand is expected to exceed supply. There is a serious risk of both power cuts and rapid tariff increases during this time period unless a more strategic energy policy is implemented very soon. This policy needs to:

(a) Increase energy efficiency by helping domestic and commercial consumers to reduce demand without affecting GDP growth. By installing smart meters it will be possible to introduce time-of-day and time-of-week tariffs to incentivise users to draw electricity at times when regional /national demand is low. This will enable demand to be ‘smoothed’ throughout each day and week. Consequently, this will reduce the demand peaks on the national grid. Differential tariffs will also encourage the development of energy storage solutions for users at the building (using e.g. batteries) and community /regional (using e.g. hydroelectric, wood pellet manufacturing and storage) levels;

(b) Forecast energy demand as comprehensively and accurately as possible for the whole of the UK. These forecasts need to cover time of day, day of week and holiday /monthly /seasonal variations;

(c) Determine the optimal mix of sources of energy supply to satisfy the forecast demand during both the short and medium terms in a sustainable, cost-effective manner whilst minimising environmental damage. This will require the necessary use of the least-polluting forms of fossil fuel-powered generation to complement renewable sources;

(d) Developing a smart grid to enable the peaks in demand to be smoothed as far as possible and also invest in electricity and gas storage facilities;

(e) Incentivise the use of renewable energy and the least-polluting fossil fuels for energy generation. Over time the proportion of renewable energy in the mix can be increased without impacting GDP growth; and

(f) Reduce the UK’s dependency upon other countries for its energy supplies. In the short term, shale gas and new nuclear power stations will not be able to contribute to closing the energy gap. In both cases, there are significant environmental, and health and safety issues to be addressed. Shale gas extraction has raised some concerns about the potential risks of earthquakes and of groundwater

contamination by the chemicals used in the extraction process. In the case of nuclear power, there are many unanswered questions including the safe storage of waste which will be radioactive for hundreds of years, the uncertain and increasing cost of new nuclear power stations, and the security of radioactive material in the face of a sophisticated and global terrorist threat.

There are many forms of renewable energy which are currently at different stages of development. Wind and solar power are both well developed and certain in terms of cost, but uncertain in terms of weather dependency. Other forms of renewable energy (e.g. tidal, geothermal) are predictable in terms of power generation, but uncertain in terms of cost until further development work has been completed. Some of these alternatives are hardly used in the UK at present, but may create significant potential sources of energy generation in the medium to long term. Overall the UK requires a portfolio solution to its energy provision which will require it to effectively manage and encourage existing supplies, new installations and future developments of sustainable, cost-effective solutions.

The vision for the UK could be to create ‘Smart, Sustainable Communities’ (SSCs) in the future with:

• Microgeneration (solar PV, air and ground source heat pumps) and storage (batteries) at the building level;

• Community energy generation (onshore wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, anaerobic digestion, CHP powered by wood pellets) and storage (hydroelectric, wood pellet manufacturing) combined with district heating systems; and

• Regional /national energy generation (tidal, wave, offshore wind, back-up gas) and storage (large scale hydroelectric, gas).

The SSCs should be aiming to be self-sufficient and self-contained in terms of water and energy supplies, high speed broadband networks, recycling and waste and water disposal whilst preserving biodiversity and encouraging local food production. Transport within the SSCs could be on foot, bicycle and short range electric carts.

The SSCs could be connected via ‘grids’ of transport links (water, rail and roads), high speed broadband and back-up water and electricity supplies from the regional /national grids. Deliveries to and from the SSCs could be on regular container shipments to and from SSC depots rather than to and from individual houses and commercial buildings.

UK plc has limited residual supplies of economically-extractable fossil fuels. However, as an island (surrounded by tidal, wave and offshore wind energy) with a large, highly skilled work force it has all of the ‘ingredients’ required to be successful in the global, renewable energy sector.

henry Snaith: Representing an early stage technology start-up, the obstacle is one of raising sufficient external investment to make the transition from concept to product in a suitably fast time. The UK has a tremendous opportunity to create a new PV technology that can compete directly with existing thin film and silicon. Assistance, in the form of grants both at the research level and at the pilot production scale, and creating a favourable environment for investment is crucial. The opportunity to inject funds into research and create a near future PV manufacturing industry is not fully appreciated by all the funding bodies.

Michael Stein: The biggest issue for crowd-investing into solar parks is the regulatory hurdle that makes use of innovative marketing and social media very limiting. The underlying reasons for that are good and should apply to any major investment you might be considering, but for very small investments (e.g. often below £100 in the case of crowd-investing) especially into a fixed infrastructure project like a solar park, it seems a bit over the top.

Firstly, a crowd-investing platform must be regulated (or must persuade a regulated firm to take you under their wing), and of course, all communications must be fair clear and not misleading - those are both important and fair enough. But all the risk warnings can make it sound and look much more complicated than buying a house or a car and it shouldn’t be, especially for a £100 investment.

richard Fitton: Our main focus is currently on supporting innovation in the

“Assistance, in the form of grants both at the research level and at the pilot

production scale, and creating a favourable environment for investment is crucial”

Dr. henry Snaith lecturer in photovoltaics at oxford University

and Founder and Chief Scientific officer of oxford Photovoltaics

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development of new solar panel technology, and as such, the reduction in the feed-in-tariffs and subsequent lowering of demand, has meant that companies are no longer willing to invest in R&D. However, thanks to funding, including a ERDF grant, we have money to support local SMEs in the development and prototyping of such technologies and innovations.

Investment is one obstacle, but by far the greatest obstacle is public perception of solar PV, this is due to several reasons, but the more common ones are:

• Price and return on investment. Although the price of the panels themselves continues to fall, installation costs have not fallen at the same rate, and coupled with the reduction in the FITs, they aren’t currently seen as a viable option. They aren’t seen as desirable, due to their current appearance. However it’s envisaged that research and collaborations in the development of new and more efficient solutions, which will result in a reduced payback period. Coupled with new designs, these are increasing the market take-up of solar PV.

There is also now a public and consumer demand driven by confidence in the feed in tariff rates being offered.

PES: as the global solar Pv market surges towards the 100GW milestone, does it enjoy the same profile as wind energy, say? if not, what could be done to improve this?

Chris Jardine: I don’t think it does enjoy the same profile, but I’m quite happy with that. Wind has a high profile partly because they are media-genic mega-structures, and partly because of contentiousness around visual impact and planning. Solar PV is constantly rated the No1 desired energy technology and doesn’t suffer from the same public image issues. For me high profile = contentious = longer riskier more expensive projects, so I’m perfectly happy for PV to slip under the radar!

Gordon Wylie: Solar PV does not enjoy the same profile as, for example, wind, nuclear and shale gas electricity generation. It seems that the other sectors have more effective lobbyists who have been able to focus the overall public perception in each case on the positive rather than the negative aspects of a specific form of energy production. By contrast, solar PV has a very low profile in the public arena since it currently does not have any significant impact (except for ground-mounted systems) on either the environment or on its potential to help to close the energy gap. Consequently, solar PV has attracted very little discussion in the UK.

henry Snaith: PV has the potential to be the primary source of energy across the

world. It is arguable that with a suitable electricity storage system, PV could produce more than 90% of the global energy demand. This is certainly not appreciated in 2020 and 2050 energy generation predictions. Education of policy makers about the feasibility of PV, both domestically and as an export industry has to be conveyed effectively. For this to happen, a critical projection of future cost of existing and emerging PV is required.

Michael Stein: The industry needs to do something innovative like fund an open-source ‘counter’ that shows how much solar power is being installed on a weekly basis across the world, and have an ‘Olympics’ for countries solar installation rate - adjusted for insolation (like a gold handicap). A major prize could be awarded in each country to one householder and one business for being the ‘10,000th’ person and/ or business to install a solar system. That would get in the press.

Stavros tassos: It doesn’t. Despite PV’s phenomenal growth with the 100GW milestone already surpassed, installed wind capacity is still around three times higher, while in terms of utility-scale plants wind has been around for a lot longer.

Windfarms have provided the emblem for the renewables industry for decades now, including at a time when the wider public only associated photovoltaics with either satellites or pocket calculators. Wind Turbine Generators are of course impressive-looking structures, both because of the tower height and rotating blades - it is far easier to miss a 100MW PV plant just round the corner, than a 1MW wind turbine a few kilometres away. This can at the same time be seen as an advantage of PV plants as they have minimal visual impact, amongst an overall minimal environmental impact profile, making them less susceptible to local community opposition.

With an ever increasing share of global electricity supply, public perception of PV not being on a par with other renewable energy technologies as a serious contributor to the electricity mix will inevitably change.

PES: Do you believe the European Commission should impose trade duties on Chinese module manufacturers?

Chris Jardine: I certainly don’t think the EU should just impose duties on Chinese modules and think this will solve the problem. I do understand the EU’s concerns, but feel they have been put under pressure by European manufacturers looking to protect their market share. The installation industry doesn’t have the same lobbying power but its in the installer base where the effects will be felt. Installation volumes are heavily dependent of returns available via feed-in tariffs, and tariffs

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across Europe have been set on the basis of a market price that Chinese manufactured panels can make attractive.

If you raise the price of Chinese panels, then the overall market will reduce and installers will have to downsize. I think the installer market could be kept stable and the products installed swing back towards EU manufacturers, if a trade duty was imposed and feed-in tariffs were raised across the EU. I can’t see member states doing the latter, however…

When I first started looking at solar PV in the early 2000s subsidising manufacturers so they could mass produce modules more cheaply was seen as one of the key ways of developing solar PV market. The Japanese did this alongside their early demonstration programs and it could be argued was responsible for their strong manufacturing position throughout the 2000s. So it seems a little harsh to pick on the Chinese when they do the same in the 2010s (although I will admit the market is in a different place now).

Gordon Wylie: No, since free trade is critical to encourage the development and sharing of new ideas and technologies in the renewable energy sector on a commercial basis. It is more important for the PV system market to be effectively regulated to ensure that the equipment used in the UK is fit-for-purpose over a long economic system lifetime.

Michael Stein: Definitely not. Ricardo’s Law is the basis for all trade in the world (and if you don’t know about Ricardo, it’s well worth reading up on his ‘Law’). All that will happen is that prices will rise and the amount of investment into solar will fall, and if we impose duties on one product line why not others. Trade barriers are exactly the opposite of what the global economy needs right...now we need to remove trade barriers so as to get the global economy going.

Stavros tassos: Trade wars are of course never conducive to market growth. In the short term, such sanctions are likely to result in the cancellation of projects in the EU and consequently the further dampening of solar growth in Europe as well as job losses; however, the magnitude and duration of any such negative effects would be strongly dependent on the EC’s accompanying measures and incentives for local industry. With Chinese module manufacturers vertically integrating and looking to diversify their markets, and on the basis of a number of Sunbelt country markets rapidly emerging, China appears to be in a better position than Europe should a PV trade war occur.

PES: Would you say that the industry has finally become a career destination for school leavers – or are we still recruiting mature employees from mature sectors?

Chris Jardine: I think the industry does have a high proportion of younger employees, certainly at the project management/sales level.

We’re seeing a lot of MSc level courses specialising in renewable energy and these are churning out skilled new graduates. In the boom time, this was fantastic. However now there are less vacancies, and these are being competed over both by new graduates and those with more experience who have unfortunately been laid off over the last year. At the installation team level, we’re certainly seeing new young roofers and electricians looking to get into solar PV – for them being able to install PV is becoming an essential skill to have, as much as being able to do slate work or wire a bathroom.

Gordon Wylie: The industry is not yet a career destination for school leavers. In the UK the energy sector still has a ‘blue collar’ and low reward image which is not seen as attractive for ambitious and enthusiastic school leavers. The renewable energy sector offers a wide variety of challenging and rewarding roles and is critical for the future success of UK plc. Engineers in the UK still have a very low status in society compared with other professions.

A successful renewable sector will require a very wide range of skills and expertise including technician engineers, chartered engineers, scientists, commercial, business development, legal, finance, project management, product development. If UK plc is able to create the business environment in order to encourage the creation of successful multi-disciplinary teams to both develop and commercially exploit all forms of renewable energy, then it will provide the country with a significant comparative advantage in a very competitive global marketplace.

Lord Sainsbury recognised this requirement 25 years ago for UK plc and created the Sainsbury Management Fellowship to encourage Chartered Engineers to develop their business skills by undertaking MBAs at the leading business schools in the world. The Royal Academy for Engineering has now created a career path for school leavers to achieve both degree level engineering and Masters level business qualifications, and chartered engineer status.

The numerous specialist engineering institutions have not helped the situation by continuing to compete with each other. In my case, I am a Chartered Engineer registered with the UK Engineering Council, a European Engineer registered with FEANI (European Federation of National Engineering Associations), a Member of the Institution of Civil Engineers and a Member of the Institution of Structural Engineers. Effective communication and lobbying is almost impossible with such a large number of institutions with a wide variety of special interests.

Renewable energy is a global sector in which the UK should aim to take a leading position. If the UK was successful in this sector relative to other countries, then it would improve UK energy security, GDP growth, sustainable employment, exports and the environment by reducing dependence upon fossil fuels which are becoming increasingly costly and damaging to the global ecosystem to extract.

henry Snaith: The number of post graduates doing PV research has grown phenomenally over the last five years. This is illustrated by looking at the number of global scientific publications in PV. In the field of Organic Solar Cells alone (which is one specific branch of a printable low cost emerging PV technology), there were 3,000 scientific publications in 2013, this compares to only 200 in 2004. These scientists need jobs and we must strive to realise a vibrant PV technology industry.

Michael Stein: I gave a talk at the LSE yesterday and there was a roomful of young and talented people all looking for careers in renewable energy and sustainability. I have no doubt that many would love to work for a solar company. Perhaps the industry players – solar, wind, biomass et al. should come together to fund focused career events at the big universities along the lines of other big single companies.

richard Fitton: As a higher education institution we see that many students are finishing their degree with an interest in the low carbon sector, in subject areas spanning economics, physics, the built environment and design. To increase the graduate employability rates at the University of Salford we have integrated

“The energy sector still has a ‘blue collar’ and low reward image which is not

seen as attractive for ambitious and enthusiastic school leavers”

Gordon Wylie Member of a UK Energy Policy Working Group, and founder

of the Free Green Electricity Corporation (FGEC)

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low carbon and sustainability into the core curricula of individual courses, and through the work of the Energy House and associated facilities, support students with live industrial briefs and work placements within the energy and low carbon sector.

To ensure that our graduates leave with the necessary skills to work within the energy and low carbon sectors, we have industrial panels that support academic colleagues in the development of new courses and modules. Our close links with industry ensures that we develop graduates with real-world focus, especially for fast and growing markets like energy and low carbon.

PES: When the Feed-in tariff frenzy was at its height, few were interested in how the Pv panels they installed actually looked. is BiPv and aesthetics going to come into its own in the coming years?

Chris Jardine: I’d love to see the aesthetics of solar PV being given more consideration, but it seems unlikely to me. The problem we’ve seen isn’t that installers are incapable of designing neat attractive systems but rather that consumers are seeking to maximise their generation and financial returns. So given a choice between a nice neat eight panel array arranged 4x2, or a nine panel array arranged 4x2 with an extra one stuck on a spare bit of roof space, customers will tend to go for the latter option. That’s not to say there aren’t installers out there who don’t try to just sell as many panels as possible. But equally it would be hard for an installer to sell a smaller system to a customer just because it looks better.

The situation is even harder when looking at BIPV. Whilst module costs have plummeted, the BIPV hasn’t taken off as much and so economies of production have not applied in this niche. So BIPV now looks very much less favourable in economic terms than it did even for new build. I think you’d need to look at direct legislation to mandate BIPV for new builds, or at least increasing the tariffs for BIPV products so that they offer the same returns as retro-fitted modules.

Gordon Wylie: Compared with other sources of electricity, roof-mounted solar PV has a very low impact on the environment since the panels are installed very close to the existing roof lines. In the case of new build and /or re-roofing, BIPV is cost-effective in many cases based upon existing technology.

In the case of retrofitting on a roof which is many years of useful life remaining, then it is currently not cost-effective to replace the existing roof covering with BIPV. However, thin film, PV ‘carpet’ solutions on flat and low pitch roofs are already cost-effective for certain retrofit situations.

henry Snaith: Widespread PV uptake is all about aesthetics. People want to build and live in beautiful buildings, and there is no need for a compromise. Our philosophy is to create photovoltaic glass that is ultimately indistinguishable from existing glass cladding. It will be impossible to tell from sight if the building is made of solar cells or not.

Michael Stein: A big issue is to get the planners who look at Grade 1-2 listed buildings to adjust their thinking. I think the new black panels look great - they are sleek. Some councils are very sensible. Even though I live in a conservation area, the Camden council treats solar panels installed on a roof as a permitted development (i.e. no planning permission required) within clearly defined limits. I have a south facing roof so put in a low profile array with no problem.

richard Fitton: At the solar research facility we are investigating innovative methods of producing, not only

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modules with a high efficiency, but also panels that are aesthetically pleasing to the consumer. This draws on many different disciplines including design, engineering and physics. We believe that aesthetics will play a huge part in the development of solar PV over the coming years, with the development of both BIPV and retro-fit solutions that are ‘easy on the eye’.

Stavros tassos: The magnitude of installed capacity in coming years will remain on utility-scale plant rather than either BIPV or even small-scale rooftop installations. It is however a fact that there is huge untapped potential in both the rooftop segment of the market and BIPV.

Specifically in BIPV there is evidence to suggest there is increasing demand for applications with added aesthetic value and there is wide expectation that some of this potential will start getting realised in coming years. In contrast to where BIPV was a few years ago, the advent of new technologies and products such as semi-transparent and coloured modules and lower cost customised designs and module forms is now enabling incorporation of PV in the architectural design from the outset. While there is still a long way to go, BIPV installations will see growth, keeping in mind that the European market will play an increasing role, unlike in utility-scale plant.

PES: Concern for the environment is no longer the prime driver for Pv uptake. Would you agree with this statement?

Gordon Wylie: Yes, most building owners have been affected by the economic downturn in recent years and have prioritised energy cost savings and cost predictability over the medium to long term ahead of environmental factors. However, carbon footprint benefits are still an important consideration for nearly all of these owners.

Chris Jardine: Yes, I’d agree this is true, and innovation theory would suggest that you’d expect this to be the case. New products are adopted first by classic innovators (interested in technology) and early adopters (more altruistically motivated), so the early days of PV were dominated by people with a fascination for new technology or environmental concerns (or both). After this products are adopted by the early mass market, who often have very different motivations. For PV these are likely to be more influenced by the economic benefits of PV, although there may be other reasons (keeping up with the Joneses etc.). The cuts in tariffs came at almost exactly the wrong time, as we were moving from early adopters to mass market. Cutting tariffs and returns just as the market moves to one that is more financially motivated was always going to be particularly damaging.

henry Snaith: PV will ultimately deliver lower cost electricity and non-centralised

electricity, in addition to being environmentally benign. Once PV becomes cheaper than electricity from coal and gas fired power stations, an acceleration in the uptake and scale up will occur. This will in turn result in even further reductions in price genuinely enhancing standard of living across the world. PV is probably the only way to create a western standard of living in developing countries within a suitably near term timeframe.

Michael Stein: No, I don’t agree because I think it would be a real tipping point when people put in panels solely because of the economics. That would be a great day and it is approaching fast. And as regards quality, my panels are guaranteed for 25 years and the installation for the lifetime of the roof. I can only see competition driving higher specs rather than lower specs on the build of the panels as well as the installations – domestic and commercial. Look at other industries - remember the first mobile phones...both the connection and the handsets where really awful and calls dropped multiple time per day. Now I get upset if a call drops once a week. So long as we maintain competition the panels and their installation will get more and more efficient.

PES: Does research into Pv technology get enough funding?

Chris Jardine: I suppose it depends what you are trying to do. The UK has always historically been stronger at research than implementation and there’s ;lots of good science being done.

It could be argued that money should be aimed at subsidising installation through feed-in tariffs as this has been effective at reducing prices worldwide and bringing some parts of the world to cost parity already.

You could certainly make the case for example that instead of throwing money at nuclear fusion in the hope it can be perfected, the same money aimed at wind and solar could already be delivering us a substantially more renewable energy system than we have at present.

Conversely, cell efficiencies are some way short of theoretical maximum limits and if improvements could be delivered here whilst maintaining costs we could see solar PV become the most economical way of supplying electricity to a building by some distance.

Gordon Wylie: PV technology was originally developed over 50 years ago for the space programme and has been evolving gradually since that ‘kick start’. The renewable energy generation incentives provide the commercial drivers to continue to invest in further technology developments.

Design /development competition funding could be used to ‘kick start’ new, alternative

forms of renewable energy until they become commercially viable with the more limited support of energy generation incentives. The providers (public and /or private sector) of the development competition funding could receive a share of the licensing revenue from the new technologies.

henry Snaith: My biased opinion is absolutely not. The following in my opinion are statements of fact: Photovoltaic solar energy will become a major component in the power mix in the future. The countries which develop and commercialise the winning technology/technologies will benefit financially in a significant way. How soon this occurs is in part a matter of scale and sustained investment into research. The single word which summarises the present situation is opportunity. It should not be missed.

richard Fitton: Accessing money for research projects is becoming more challenging; this has encouraged us and other researchers to speculate for more innovative forms of funding, such as working more closely with industry, and forming research partnerships with other academic institutions.

However to ensure that this is successful, the needs of both the academic institution and industry need to be aligned, with positive outcomes for both parties. Here at Salford, we have a policy of developing long-term relationships with industry from small micro-SMEs, which allows us to jointly bid to research councils both in the UK and Europe.

To support innovation and investment in R&D by the private sector there needs to be incentives, whilst the Governments R&D tax relief is available; there should be more incentives for R&D into the energy, and low carbon sectors, those that are contributing to the Government’s ambitious Carbon reduction targets. Without the investment and funding to support collaborative R&D between universities and the private sector, the transition to a low carbon economy will be much slower.

PES: one of the conundrums of solar/Pv power is that the sun doesn’t shine constantly. are we doing enough to help balance shifting power production, or improve storage?

Chris Jardine: An interesting question – I’m not sure that it is necessarily the responsibility of the renewables industry to solve this. Grid balancing is a factor of intermittent renewables, even more intermittent load profiles and also the inflexibility of nuclear power to adjust its output. I don’t think the balancing issue should lie at the feet of intermittent renewables any more than the demand side or nuclear – it is a system wide issue.

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That said from a business perspective there seems to be a natural synergy between selling a renewable device and storage as a combination, and it is possible that grid-connected solar/battery systems will take off over the coming years. However, the whole storage market is up for grabs; we don’t know if we will see dedicated centralised storage, dedicated decentralised domestic storage, or whether storage will come from storage systems within other end uses (electric vehicle batteries, thermal stores in homes).

Ultimately storage will take off when the price signals are in place to allow arbitrage of electricity prices at times of high and low demand. Without this I see storage as a very niche market, and it needs policy support to get it to take off as a practical solution.

Michael Stein: It really is a conundrum. One only needs to look at Germany to see how the old definition of daily peak cost of power has changed - in the summer, the peak time has some of the lowest energy spot prices...completely changing the energy landscape and for the first time opening the door to CSP which suddenly could become viable since the cost of the ‘dusk / dawn’ energy become relatively more expensive. For me, the race is on between battery technology improving by an order of magnitude versus other sources of renewables like CSP sliding down the cost curve like solar PV has achieved. My bet is on a ‘black swan’ event in electron storage (battery technology) but it needs to happen in the next 10 years or CSP will get there.

Stavros tassos: National power systems across the world are forced to undergo huge change, initially due to wind power and increasingly due to solar PV, making the transition into more active management. The solar resource is less variable and more predictable than wind and while it still adds to the necessity for networks to evolve, potential impacts from increased penetration are less severe. PV plant inverters have an increasingly important role to play in this move to more active network management and grid stabilisation, with reactive power capability being just the first step, and smart grid interaction and in-built storage to follow. We already see inverter manufacturers investing in R&D towards that goal, partly in response to evolving grid code requirements.

Whether inverter-integrated storage or stand-alone battery parks or other, the market seems to be responding to project developers’ willingness to pay a premium in some locations; however, there is slower than needed progress – slower than renewables’ penetration to the system- and in that sense policy intervention is still required to accelerate rates of uptake.

PES: Finally, what are your thoughts looking forward to the next 12 months?

Chris Jardine: Well first and foremost looking forward to getting some kind of resolution on the Chinese panel pricing issue. It’s certainly complicating project development at present. Once that’s done and dusted I’m looking forward to a continued increase in the residential and commercial markets and I’m expecting to see huge volumes of ground-mounted projects developed. I’m also looking forward to seeing businesses running profitably within the solar energy sector and recruiting and growing again.

Gordon Wylie: I am very concerned that the expected energy ‘gap’ in the UK is not being given sufficient attention as a matter of urgency. If this issue continues to be ignored, then it will have dire consequences for the economy with both power cuts and rapid energy tariff increases during the next few years. I have made a number of suggestions to address this issue in my response earlier.

Michael Stein: I look forward to further declines in the installed cost of solar PV especially at the domestic level. There is nothing like benefiting personally from any form of renewable energy generation to make even a 6.0% return feel great – that’s what I am getting from my roof. Especially when it is directly linked to your own energy bill!

richard Fitton: We believe that although the last 12-18months has been difficult for the solar PV sector globally, the UK is now starting to see a turnaround. Government schemes such as the Green Deal are once again pushing the message for energy efficiency and renewables, and there is more certainty and a clearer Government policy on FITs. Coupled with this are investments in manufacturing and research that are reducing panel costs, whilst improving their outputs and efficiency.

To support this in the region, we have established a Solar Specialist Interest Group, that brings together organisations and academics which have an interest in solar PV, supported by a European Regional Development Grant.

We will also be working with industry to develop collaborative research projects, and will be looking to partner with them on funding applications.

Stavros tassos: The next 12 months will see the industry continuing on its path of consolidation and we are likely to see further vertical integration as manufacturers will seek to capture some of the value further down the chain. Module oversupply will continue in the next 12 months, putting further downward pressure on prices, which are however showing some early signs of a slowing rate of decrease.

While the solar market is moving away from Europe, with annual installations continuing to

decline, there is strong evidence to suggest that overall, globally, the market remains robust. At the same time there is huge potential in regions that have not yet started development, which suggests that growth will continue, with Asia Pacific, MENA and Latin America being the regions most likely to fuel global growth in coming years.

While grid parity has been achieved in some, but remains a moving goalpost in other regions, governments will continue implementing incentive programmes, most likely Feed In Tariff-based, although the regulatory frameworks will need to be designed taking into account the rapidly changing technology price dynamics so as to avoid implementing retroactive changes and compromising investor confidence.

opinion formers and industry leaders wanted!

Would you like to sit on the next roundtable? We’re currently looking for contributors and would welcome applications. Please contact the editor, Simeon de la torre, at

sim@pes.eu.com for details.

PES would like to thank all our roundtable contributors. For more information, please visit their respective websites.

Dr Chris Jardine Senior researcher at oxford University’s Environmental Change institute, technical Director of Joju Solar.

www.jojusolar.co.uk www.eci.ox.ac.uk

Gordon Wylie Member of a UK Energy Policy Working Group, and founder of the Free Green Electricity Corporation (FGEC).

www.freegreenelectricity.co.uk

Dr. henry Snaith lecturer in photovoltaics at oxford University and Founder and Chief Scientific officer of oxford Photovoltaics.

www.oxfordpv.com

Dr. Michael Stein Founder, trillion Fund.

www.trillionfund.com

richard Fitton technical Manager at University of Salford’s unique Energy hub. www.salford.ac.uk/energy

Stavros tassos Solar Energy leader, Mott MacDonald

www.mottmac.com