the beige book is a snow job

8/14/2019 The Beige Book is a Snow Job

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine

covers over 5,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks,and commentary can be found HERE.

Suttmeier's ForexTV Main Street vs Wall Street can be watched on the web HERE.

Marc h 4, 2010 The Beige Book is a Snow Job

The Beige Book still shows a slowdown in housing and banking. The Non-manufacturing ISMreflects a Job Loss Recovery. Is the gold bubble re-inflating? Stocks remain overbought ondaily charts, but improving on weekly charts.

The Gossip Columns from the twelve Fed Districts shows that nine see improved economicactivity. It seems like some Districts implied that things would be even better except for the severesnowstorms.

There areas I am concerned about are commercial real estate and construction activity, which areMain Street issues and most Districts characterized these components as weak or as declined further.Loan demand remained weak, and lending standards remained tight across the country. MostDistricts attributed stronger home sales to the home-buyer tax credit, with several contactsapprehensive about future sales once the credit expires on April 30.

This continues the horrific trends I observed from the Q4 FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. Again therewere no references to shovel ready projects or jobs created or saved by the Obama StimulusPackage.

The ValuEngine Quarterly FDIC Report was published on Tuesday, and the trends or the fourthquarter are continuing through two thirds of the first quarter of 2010, which is not good news for theeconomy. Perhaps will workers snowed in the pace of layoffs slowed.

What I am observing on the road this week. Light traffic on I 75, I 10 and I 95 from Tampa Bay up toWilmington, NC. Fewer trucks on the road than my last trip last October and the number of emptyBillboards appear to be about the same. Gasoline prices are a lot higher, which is a tax on MainStreet.

My observations mirror ABCs Consumer Comfort Index, which at -49 remains quite weak. Only 8% ofAmericans on Main Street rate the economy as positive and just 24% say its a good time to buythings.

ISM Non-manufacturing ISM reflects Job Loss Recovery - The service sector is 60% to 70% of theUS economy and the non-manufacturing ISM improved to 53 in February from 50.5 in January.Thisimproving is accompanied by job losses with the employment component below 50 and 48.6. This tellsme that a 5.9% GDP quarter is not creating or saving jobs.


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10-Year Note Semiannual support is 3.675 with daily, monthly and weekly resistances at 3.528,3.477 and 3.470. Still richer than my semiannual pivot at 3.675 favoring risk aversion!

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold Daily, annual, weekly, quarterly and annual supports are $1118.7, $1115.2, $1114.7 with

a semiannual pivot at $1139.7, and semiannual and monthly resistances at $1186.5 and $1195.4.



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Nymex Crude Oil Annual, weekly and quarterly supports are $77.05, $74.39 and $67.22 with dailyand monthly pivots at $79.44 and $80.05, and quarterly, annual and semiannual resistances at $85.21,$97.29 and $97.50.


The Euro Daily and weekly supports are 1.3589 and 1.3439 with quarterly and monthly resistances

at 1.4327 and 1.4504.



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The Dollar versus Japanese Yen Weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual supports are 87.53, 84.74,82.69 and 80.22 with semiannual resistance at 92.73.


The British Pound Daily support is 1.4986 with a weekly pivot at 1.5325 and monthly resistance at

1.5663.



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Dow Daily and weekly supports are 10,341 and 10,157 with my annual pivot at 10,379. Quarterlysupport is 6,705 with annual, monthly and semiannual resistances are 11,235, 11,461, 11,442 and11,949. Here are the daily and weekly charts:

The Daily Chart is overbought! The Weekly Chart is trying to show more upside ahead




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Send me your comments and questions to [email protected]. For more information on ourproducts and services visit www.ValuEngine.com

Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

Check out the latest Main Street versus Wall Street on Forex TV Live each day at1:30 PM. The next broadcast is Monday, March 8, 2010.

http://www.forextv.com/Forex/custom/LiveVideo/Player.jsp

Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategistwww.ValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. Ihave daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters aswell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as theValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sampleissues of my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

the beige book is a snow job

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