the ballistic axis: strategic implications of dprk and iran's cooperation in missiles and space
TRANSCRIPT
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The Ballistic Axis : DPRK and Iran's cooperation in missiles and
space - strategic implications
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Tal Inbar
Head, Space Research Center The Fisher Institute for Air & Space Strategic Studies, Israel
April 21, 2016, Washington DC
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Disclaimer
• The presentation is based exclusively on unclassified open source information
• The views represents the author and are NOT necessarily represent an official Israeli governmental position;
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Content of the presentation
• Introduction to Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal
• Introduction to DPRK ballistic missile arsenal
• Recent revelations on DPRK missile technologies and nuclear warhead
• Iran’s silos for ballistic missiles
• Iran’s space program – and DPRK technologies incorporated
• Prospects for the future
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Iran’s Ballistic missiles
First missiles acquired from DPRK during the Iran-Iraq War.
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Teharani Moghadem, “Father of Iranian missiles”
Refueling vehicle
Scud Missile
Note the horizontal
refuel
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Iran’s Ballistic missiles
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Standard Scud TEL. Note 1980’s DPRK Scheme
Scud Missile
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Shahab 2 (DPRK Scud C)
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Shahab 3 (DPRK Nodong)
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Shahab 3 / Ghadr (DPRK Nodong)
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Shahab 3 production in Iran
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Sajil – 2 stage, solid propelled
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Sajil – 2 stage, solid propelled
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Thrust termination
port (1/4)Housing for second stage jet vanes (1/4)
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Fateh 110 – the accuracy revolution
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Fateh 110 – the accuracy revolution
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Guidance section
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Khalij Fars – Anti ship ballistic missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Hourmuz – Anti ship ballistic missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Fateh 313 – Extended range
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Fateh 313 – Extended range
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Note the pattern – possible carbon
fiber outer skin of the missile
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Fateh 313 – Extended range
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Test launch of the missile (2015)
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Shahab 3 with sub munitions
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Note the sub-munitions inside
the missile’s warhead
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Advanced Zelzal – Sub munitions
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Heavy sub munition
Fins
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Ya Ali cruise missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Soumar cruise missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Soumar cruise missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Qiam ballistic missile – A Scud replacement
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Qiam ballistic missile – A Scud replacement
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Qiam ballistic missile – A Scud replacement
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Shahab 2 with new guidance
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Movable steering fins
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Emad – advanced Ghadr
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Note the movable steering fins
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Emad – advanced Ghadr
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Retro rocket (1 of 2)
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Iran’s Silo basing
Iran has different types of silos:
• Conventional designed (missile in vertical position on alert)
• Underground “missile city” – tunnels and TEL’s
• Coffin type silo
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Iran’s Silo basing
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Shahab 3 on alert – vertically mounted
Blast doors to the silo
Doors on ground level
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Iran’s Silo basing
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Iran’s Silo basing
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Iran’s Silo basing
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Qiam missile
Launch hole
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Iran’s Silo basing
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Iran’s Silo basing
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Underground missile depo
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Note: missiles are stored without the
warheads
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Iran’s Silo basing
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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North Korean ballistic missiles
• The NK arsenal of ballistic missiles consist of former Soviet Union
technologies and origin: Scud, SS-21(KN-02) and BM-25 (aka Musudan,
BK-1)
• Original design: Nodong, HS-13 – two versions
Soviet Origin Original NK design
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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HS-13 (KN 08) missile
• The missile was first shown on a military parade on April 15, 2012.
• Photographic materials indicated that the missile was under development
or production in Kim Jong Il time.
• It is described by North Korea as ICBM (Inter Continental Ballistic Missile).
• On October 2015, a second version of the missile was shown.
• No test flight was conducted for either type.
©2016 by Tal InbarHS-13 HS-13 mod. 2
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HS-13 (KN 08) missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
1st stage2nd stage
3rd stage Re-entry vehicle
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HS-13 mod. 2 missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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HS-13 (KN 08) missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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©2016 by Tal Inbar
Note the same support
structure for the missile
Kim Jong Un, March 2016
Kim Jong Il, Date UNKNOWN
When was the HS-13 built?
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Nuclear equipped warhead (RV) of the HS-13 missile
• On March 9, 2016, DPRK displayed, for the first time, a nuclear equipped
warhead for its HS-13 (KN-08) long range ballistic missile.
HS-13 (KN-08) RV on its cradle ©2016 by Tal Inbar
• Triconic RV configuration
• Blunt Nose-Tip
• Low ballistic coefficient (b)
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Cut out of HS-13(KN 08) RV armed with Nuclear Warhead
Electronic package for the nuclear bomb
or ballast weight
Nuclear explosive
device
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Aft Skirt (for stabilization)Nose
Tip
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Cut out of HS-13(KN 08) RV armed with Nuclear Warhead
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Electronic package for the nuclear bomb
or ballast weight
Nuclear explosive
device
Aft Skirt (for stabilization)Nose
Tip
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Cut out of HS-13(KN 08) RV armed with Nuclear Warhead
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Cut out of HS-13(KN 08) RV armed with Nuclear Warhead
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Cut out of HS-13(KN 08) RV armed with Nuclear Warhead
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Cut out of HS-13(KN 08) RV armed with Nuclear Warhead
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Cut out of HS-13(KN 08) RV armed with Nuclear Warhead
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Cut out of HS-13(KN 08) RV armed with Nuclear Warhead
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Nuclear equipped warhead of the HS-13 missile
• DPRK leader Kim Jong Un was shown the nuclear bomb that was
designed to fit inside the re-entry vehicle of the HS-13 missile. Note the
missile in the background.
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Nuclear equipped warhead of the HS-13 missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
HS-13 missile first stage
HS-13 missile second stage
Place for the nuclear explosion device
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Nuclear Bomb for HS-13
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Explosive Lens
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Nuclear Bomb for HS-13
Electrical cords for explosive lens
activation
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Geometry of the nuclear explosive device
Nuclear bomb with some
pentagons and hexagons
superimposed
Probable geometry of the
nuclear device (minus
external features)
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Nuclear equipped warhead of the HS-13 missile
Inside view of the re-entry vehicle of the HS-
13 ballistic missile
Electronic package for the nuclear bomb
OR ballast
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Aft Squirt
Mounting point
Location of the Nuclear payload
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The strategic significance
• It is a devastating combination of long range ballistic missile AND a
nuclear warhead.
• North Korea never tested a missile to a range exciding 1100 km –
the HS-13 family is a quantum leap in it’s capabilities.
• The unveiling of the miniaturized nuclear bomb is a direct response to the
west’s claims that NK lack the capability to produce them.
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Re-entry simulation for the nose tip of the HS-13 (mod. 2) missile
• On March 15, 2016, NK published detailed view of a ground test of the
nose tip of the HS-13 mod. 2 ballistic missile.
• The simulated atmospheric re-entry was conducted by using a static test
stand and exposure of the nose tip to the exhaust gases of a Scud missile.
Front page of the Rodong Sinmun revealing the test ©2016 by Tal Inbar
• The test aim was to evaluate and prove of the
nose tip in heat loads and heat fluxes typical to
the critical phase of atmospheric reentry.
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Erosion and Ablation test of the Nose tip for HS-13 mod. 2
Nose tip – probably made of ceramics
Ablative material
Electrical connectors
Attachment Bolts
(to the missile)
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Note the cover up design
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Erosion and Ablation test of the Nose tip for HS-13 mod. 2
Nose tip poised for
test
Scud engine
Exhaust from the
scud engine
Nose tip
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Scud engine
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Schematic drawing of the nose tip
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Gauge to measure the curve of the
nose tip: note that very little material has been ablated
Post test Nose tip for HS-13 mod. 2
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Nose tip for HS-13 mod. 2
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Electronic package used for the nuclear explosive device OR
ballast
Electrical connectors
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Post test Nose tip for HS-13 mod. 2
Charred nose tip
Thermal blankets
(possible use of Asbestos Phenolic )
Ablative material. Note that MOST of the material withstand the
heat during the test
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Electronic equipment – probably related to the
nuclear bomb. Some may be avionics.Antenna
Bolts unaffected by
the heat
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Post test Nose tip for HS-13 mod. 2
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HS-13 missile
First stage
Cables duct
Second stage
First stage main engine
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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HS-13 mod. 2
Nose tip (as was tested on March 15, 2016) Large compartment for nuclear bomb
(Larger than the one shown on march 9, hence larger yield possible)
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Technological assessments
• The HS-13 missile shown with the nuclear warhead looks authentic.
• The 6 HS-13 (mod. 2) missiles shown looks authentic.
• The design of the nuclear bomb looks authentic.
• The nose tip used for simulated re-entry is authentic in every aspect.
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Solid propelled rocket motor
• On March 2016, DPRK performed a static test of a new, large diameter
(probably 1.25 meters) solid rocket motor.
• DPRK leader Ki Jong Un attended the test.
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Solid fuel engine test
©2016 by Tal Inbar, FOUO, UNCLASSIFIED
Rails
Engine’s exhaust
Jet vane mount
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Solid fuel engine test
©2016 by Tal Inbar, FOUO, UNCLASSIFIED
Electrical Connector
Nozzle
Jet Vane
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Solid fuel engine test
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Solid fuel engine test
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Solid fuel engine test
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Solid fuel engine test
©2016 by Tal Inbar, FOUO, UNCLASSIFIED
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Solid fuel engine test
©2016 by Tal Inbar, FOUO, UNCLASSIFIED
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Solid fuel engine test
©2016 by Tal Inbar, FOUO, UNCLASSIFIED
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Solid fuel engine test
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Burning time of the rocket
engine in seconds (?)
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Solid fuel engine test
©2016 by Tal Inbar, FOUO, UNCLASSIFIED
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Solid fuel engine test
©2016 by Tal Inbar, FOUO, UNCLASSIFIED
Welding
Jet vane mount
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Solid fuel engine test
©2016 by Tal Inbar, FOUO, UNCLASSIFIED
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Solid fuel engine test
©2016 by Tal Inbar, FOUO, UNCLASSIFIED
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Static test fire of HS-13 engines
• On April 2016, DPRK performed a static test of the engines which are
installed in the HS-13 missile.
• Kim Jong Un attended the test.
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Static test of a cluster of engines forHS-13 ballistic missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Static test of a cluster of engines forHS-13 ballistic missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Static test of a cluster of engines forHS-13 ballistic missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Static test of a cluster of engines forHS-13 ballistic missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Static test of a cluster of engines forHS-13 ballistic missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Static test of a cluster of engines forHS-13 ballistic missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Static test of a cluster of engines forHS-13 ballistic missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Static test of a cluster of engines forHS-13 ballistic missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Static test of a cluster of engines forHS-13 ballistic missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar, FOUO, UNCLASSIFIED
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Static test of a cluster of engines forHS-13 ballistic missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar, FOUO, UNCLASSIFIED
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Static test of dual-combustion chamber rocket engine for HS-13 ballistic missile
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Flame from engine 2
Flame from engine 1
Truss – connecting the engines
to the missile
Cables for measurements during the test
Probable location of
turbo-pumps
assembly
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Solid propelled SLBM
• On April 23, 2016, DPRK conducted a test flight of a SOLID PROPELLED
SLBM, from under the sea.
• DPRK state run television claimed it was launched from a submarine.
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Solid propelled SLBM
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Protective cover of the launch tube
Hand grips
Outer cover of the launch
tube. Note the DPRK submarine
color
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Solid propelled SLBM
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Protective cover of the launch tube
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Solid propelled SLBM
©2016 by Tal Inbar
Missile’s nose tip
Cables Duct
Protective cover of the launch tube
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UNHA SLV first stage
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Solid propelled SLBM
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Preliminary conclusions
• DPRK has finished the design of two versions of the HS-13 ballistic
missile.
• DPRK has succeeded to built a miniaturized nuclear bomb to fit its large
ballistic missiles.
• DPRK has the technology to design, manufacture and test of re-entry
vehicles for ballistic missiles.
• Transfer of DPRK missile technologies is conformed in regard to Iran and
Pakistan, among other countries.
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Future prospects
• Static tests of both versions of the HS-13 must be conducted (including
separation tests – for stages of the missiles, AND the re-entry vehicles
must be conducted). NOTE – This might have been partially achieved
through launches of the UNHA satellite launch vehicle.
• Nuclear test with the miniaturized bomb must be conducted (this MAY
HAVE been done already, with reduced yield).
• Dynamic tests (launches) of both versions of the HS-13 missile must be
conducted to test the design and build reliability.
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Future prospects
• NK might develop even smaller nuclear warheads, to fit its arsenal of
Nodong missiles.
• If they will, it will have a profound influence on all assessments
regarding Iran – since Iranian Shahab 3, Ghader 110 are Nodong
derivatives.
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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Back up slides
©2016 by Tal Inbar
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©2016 by Tal Inbar
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©2016 by Tal Inbar
First presentation of a space launcher to Iran’s supreme leader
Half section of the fairing
Launcher forward section
Satellite
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©2016 by Tal Inbar
The satellite launcher – integral part of Iran’s missiles arsenal
Shahab missile
Sajil missile
Safir satellite launch vehicle
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©2016 by Tal Inbar
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©2016 by Tal Inbar