The Balkans - WWI

Big Issues:Germany and France were bitter rivals

because of the Franco-Prussian War.But, Russia and Austria- Hungary were also

developing a rivalry over the Balkans.Pan-Slavism and Constantinople were two

key issues here.Don’t forget that France lost Alsace and

Lorraine, two very wealthy provinces to Germany as well.

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We will also see that Germany, under Bismarck, (though opposed to est. a colonial empire), will be at odds with France over that as well.

Let’s take a moment and look at Austria-Hungary.The Austrians and the Hungarians were still

bitter enemies, despite their “dual monarchy.”And, don’t forget that the Czechs were still

angry about not being included in a “Triple Monarchy/Trialism”

There were also Southern Slavic territories that sought independence from the Austro-Hungarian Empire as well….

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What we will see Russia do is to fan the flames of Slavic independence (Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia among them….)

It works two ways for the Russians:They can expand into the Balkans to help

their “Slavic Brothers”And, by weakening Austria/Hungary they

increase their footprint in Europe.

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Now, we move on to a key issue, Alliance Systems, with Bismarck as the primary broker.

At the heart will be the hatred between Germany and France.

So, for each alliance, and shift, think of that as the key issue.

Great Britain and Italy were pretty much free agents, tied, really, to no one.

In fact, Britain will adhere to a policy of “Splendid Isolation” and try and stay out of “Continental politics”

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The concept of the Alliance system was simple:

Any power allied with another would be protected because an enemy would think twice about attacking two countries rather than one.

Or, think of this the way that Bismarck did:

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If there are five primary powers in Europe:BritainFrance GermanyAustria HungaryRussia…The goal was to try always to be allied as

three against the other two…Safety in numbers…

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What we also see is the Post-Vienna ideology of diplomats who saw the Great Powers as bound to make decisions for the lesser ones.

We will see quite clearly that Serbia had a few things to say about that “logic”

Keep in mind as well that the many treaties that we will study were not for public scrutiny

This was very much a back room, “boys only” club.

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1873 – Three Emperors League.Germany, Russia and Austria Hungary.Old school autocrats hanging on to their

preferred way of life and political view.As the tensions in the Balkans increases and

Bosnia and Herzegovina revolt against the Turks, Russia sees an opening.

Russian intervenes on the side of the Slavs, and by 1878, Bismarck has to “re-set” the diplomatic climate of Europe.

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1878 – Key move:San Stefano in early 1878 looked like a big

win for the Russians.Slavic states were freed from ottoman

control.However, other European Nations feared the

gains by Russia.Britain was especially fearful of greater

Russian presence in the Mediterranean, by way of Constantinople.

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Remember that Russia, Austria and Germany are still, “technically”, joined by the Three emperors league…

Let’s see Bismarck in action: the congress of berlin in 1878.

Bismarck plays the role of the mediator, seeking to maintain a balance of power.

Further, he claims he wants no territory, just peace.

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We can see, however, where this is going…Russia has just made significant gains, which

means the other powers have lost something.How can we put things back to the watt they

were?He doesn’t want Austria/Hungary and Russia

to go to war…that will mean Germany will be drawn in as well…

Ultimately, Russia will be forced to scale back their gains, and will be alienated as a result.

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The key issue is this one:Austria/Hungary are given the ability to

“occupy and administer” Bosnia and Herzegovina…

These are the Slavic brothers of Serbia, and both Serbia and Russia are outraged by this infringement on a potential unified Slavic state.

Where does Bismarck go from here?

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Now that Russia is angry, the Three Emperors league is dead.

It is reduced to a “Dual Alliance” with Austria Hungary in 1879.

Each agree to have each others back should Russia attack…

And, they remain neutral if attacked by any other…

You could argue that Germany had, at this time, now tied its fortunes to the much weaker Austro/Hungarian Empire.

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Also, Bismarck saw it as an impossibility that Russia could gain an alliance with a republican form of government like France, or even England.

Hence, he seemed satisfied with having an insolated Russia at this point.

By 1881, Russia, fearful of their isolation, ant “crawling back to the dual alliance and the “Three Emperors League was reformed.

All seems well in the world…

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Italy always a problematic country, and worried about French expansion in Northern Africa (right across the med.) ask to join the Dual Alliance.

It become the Triple Alliance in 1882.This works well for Bismarck, because

France is now isolated, and Great Britain remains “splendidly isolated…”

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The Three Emperors League will simply disappear, but Bismarck, smartly, allies just with Russia in 1887 with the Reassurance Treaty. Reassuring Russia of their mutual interests.

Key provision here…Both were to remain neutral should the other

be attacked.However, a change in leadership in Germany

would upset all of the complicated alliances Bismarck had established up to this point.

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Kaiser William, II Son of William I see the future of Germany in a very different way than does Bismarck.

He views colonial empires with jealousy, and want Germany to have a greater imprint in Africa especially.

Hence we see a fragile series of alliances keeping the peace with Bismarck at the helm.

When that leadership changes so to will the diplomatic climate of Europe.

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Moving toward WWI:1890 – 1907Bismarck's successor drops the ball

immediately when he does not renew the Reassurance Treaty with Russia.

What this will do is drive Russia together with France, out of a sheer need to ally with someone, and not be isolated.

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Why France and Russia?Both were outside of the Triple AllianceRussia’s Balkan interest was a similar class as

France had with them and their Empire.Russia further hoped that an alliance with France

would help them in their movements in the Balkans.France was also investing heavily in the industrial

and rail projects in Russia under the direction of Sergi Witte

Tsar Alexander III even had a bridge named for him in Paris.

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What about Britain?After the dismissal of Bismarck, Britain would

gradually see Germany, not France, as an enemy.

Their economic rivalries were the genesis for growing out right hatred and nasty propaganda: the German were the “Huns”

But, it would really be the moves of the Kaiser as he got Germany into the colonial game more vigorously that would create the real animosity with Britain.

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German had also blocked the famed Cape to Cairo Railroad British to unify their East African colonies.

And, German construction of a huge navy also put the British on the defensive.

Remember that Bismarck cared little about naval warfare.

We move to the “Entente Cordiale”

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Entente Cordiale was an agreement between the British and the French, but not a full fledged alliance.

It would become more intense based on the actions of the Germans toward the French.

Mostly, it allowed both parties to have a free hand in their colonial interests.

This left the door open for conflict if Germany impinged on either one of them.

We move the the first Moroccan Crisis…

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Germany tests French resolve, promoting “independence” for Morocco.

The Kaiser could care less, but he was “testing the waters”A conference is called, and most European powers side

with the French against the Germans.What was ironic was this posturing by the Germans was

driving France and Britain closer together, as they protected their colonial holdings.

This would also drive Russia and Britain together as well.We can almost see the sides of WWI being chosen.Remember that France was already on Friendly terms with

Russia.

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We see all of the work of Bismarck completely undone within fifteen years, by the Kaiser.

What about the Balkans???

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Ottoman Empire is hanging on by a thread at this point.

There is tension b/c of Aust./Hung having control over Bosnia and Herzegovina.

We have a predominant Slavic culture and language uniting theses people together.

And, it would be independent Serbia who would be looked to as the possible force of unification and liberation. Much like Piedmont and Prussia had done prior to this.

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Bosnian Crisis of 1908.A reaction to the movements of the Young Turks

and their challenge to the authority of the Sultan.

Austria and Russia seek to step in and profit before a strong Turkey could arise and take territory…

Austria jumps the gun, annexes Bosnia and Herzegovina before Russia could act.

This breaks their agreement, and places Slavic peoples in danger.

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Germany is of course upset, because any actions by Austria will reflect on them poorly.

But, they stay loyal and support Austria.This leads to the Second Moroccan Crisis, in

1911.

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Second Moroccan Crisis.The resence of a German Gunboat as a

pretext for protecting their interests provokes both France ad Germany.

With a German ship near Morocco, Britain and France are pushed together into an absolute alliance.

Now, Britain would be obliged to protect France.

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War in the BalkansAs Italy attacks Libya, the Balkan provinces of

Bulgaria, Greece and Serbia are emboldened to do the same.

They do so a second time, and this, of course, alarms the Austrians who see trouble brewing.

Austria will be able to get Serbia to withdraw from Albania, which the Serbs had invaded, but the animosity between the Serbs and the Austrians only increases.

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Calls in Austria for an all out attack on Serbia are growing, and initially the Emperor and Franz Ferdinand, successor to the throne, resist.

Pan=Slavism is growing, but Czar Nicholas does not act against Austria.

Russia is inactive.Their allies remain distant and restrained.Austrians were embarrassed by the conference’s

demands.Everybody seems angry and ready to go.

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Arch Duke is shot.Serbia is obviously complicities.Where from here?Austria seems to have a perfect opportunity.Would there be German Support?“Blank Check = support but no intervention

by Germany.A seemingly local conflict was now

threatening to engulf all of Europe.

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The Kaiser is outraged at an attack on royalty.Many in Germany felt that the real need was a

war with Russia.Further, the Triple Entente was strengthening,

and this might be the time to attack.Further, Austria was in real danger from Pan-

Slavism = an attack meant their survival.Yet, it was the Austrians that really put

Germany in a bind.

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It is almost a month before Austria delivers an ultimatum to Serbia.

Serbia actually is rather conciliatory, and it makes the Austrians look like the bad guy.

They concede to all Austrian demands except for invasion by Austrian Authorities.

Was is declared on July 28th, but we will not see fighting until a month later.

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Russia: Would war lead to Revolution, as it had in 1905?

Nationalists in Russia, Pan-Slavists, sought war. However.

Yet, to mobilize troops was in fact a declaration of war.

France and Britain were not ready or eager for war.

Austria was in a position where they had to act, or lose face with the Germans, and their own self respect.

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As Russia mobilized for war, it would become easier for Germany to do so; they would have a defensive posture.

Germany declares War on Russia: August 1Germany declares war on France: August 3Britain declares war on Germany: August 4th

What can we take away from this???

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Causes of the Great War:Alliances.Aggressive NationalismMilitary Planners see war as not inevitable,

but also desirable.Early and swift actions were preferredLargest armies ever…This was a struggle for survival…

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