the australian economy and financial markets - december 2016
TRANSCRIPT
The Australian Economy andFinancial MarketsChart Pack February 2018
Contents
GraphsWorld Economy 1–3Australian Growth 4Australian Inflation 5Household Sector 6–7Business Sector 8–9Credit and Money 10Factors of Production and Labour Market 11–12Regions and Industry 13Government 14Commodity Prices 15Balance of Payments and External Position 16–17Interest Rates 18–22Share Markets 23–24Bond Issuance 25–26Exchange Rates 27–28Banking Indicators 29–30
The Australian Economy and Financial Markets
1CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
201320092005 2017-4
-2
0
2
4
6
%
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
%
GDP Growth – WorldYear-ended
Major trading partners*
World**
* Weighted using Australian export shares** PPP-weighted; accounts for 85 per cent of world GDPSources: ABS; CEIC Data; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
201320092005 2017-10
-5
0
5
%
-10
-5
0
5
%
GDP Growth – Advanced EconomiesYear-ended
US Japan
Euro area
Source: Thomson Reuters
201320092005 2017-6
-3
0
3
6
9
%
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
%
GDP Growth – East AsiaYear-ended
Middle-income*
High-income**
* Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand; PPP-weighted** Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan; PPP-weightedSources: CEIC Data; IMF; RBA
World Economy
ConsumptionInvestmentNet exports
2012200820042000 2016-5
0
5
10
ppt
-5
0
5
10
pptChina – Contributions to GDP Growth
GDP growth(per cent)
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
2CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
World Economy
2014201120082005 2017-4
-2
0
2
4
%
-4
-2
0
2
4
%
Headline Inflation – Advanced Economies*Year-ended
Japan
Euro area
US
* Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation for the US; Japandata excludes the effects of the consumption tax increase in April 2014
Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters
Labour Markets – Advanced EconomiesUnemployment rate
4
8
12
%
4
8
12
%
Euro area
US
Wage growth*Year-ended
20152013201120092007 2017-2
0
2
4
%
-2
0
2
4
%
Japan
* Average hourly earnings for the US; compensation per employee forthe euro area; smoothed full-time base wages for Japan
Sources: ECB; Eurostat; RBA; Thomson Reuters
201320092005 2017-4
0
4
8
%
-4
0
4
8
%
Inflation – East AsiaYear-ended
High-income**
Middle-income*
* Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand; PPP-weighted** Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan; PPP-weightedSources: CEIC Data; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
201320092005 2017-5
0
5
10
15
%
-5
0
5
10
15
%
Inflation – China and IndiaYear-ended
China
India
Source: Bloomberg
3CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
China – Activity IndicatorsYear-ended growth
Manufacturing PMI*
45
55
index Industrial production
10
20
%
Fixed asset investment
20132009 20170
15
30
% Real retail sales
20132009 20170
10
20
%
* Diffusion index; average of the official and CaixinSources: CEIC Data; Markit Economics; RBA
China – Residential Property Market*Year-ended growth
Floor space sold
0
50
%
0
50
%
Prices
0
10
%
0
10
%
Real estate development investment**
2015201320112009 2017-30
0
30
%
-30
0
30
%
* For sales and investment, a three-month moving average of theseasonally adjusted series is used to calculate growth** Investment by developers and other construction companies in thedevelopment of residential property; includes land purchases
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
China – Financing*Share of GDP
Total social financing flows**
20122007 20170
15
30
% Fiscal balance
20122007 2017-15
0
15
%
Expenditure
Revenue
Balance
* Seasonally adjusted by RBA** Upper bound estimate adjusting for impact of local government bondissuance to pay off debt previously included in TSF
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
China – Output Indicators2007 average = 100
20132009 201760
100
140
180
index
Crude steel
Electricitygeneration
20132009 201760
100
140
180
index
Cement
Plate glass
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
World Economy
4CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Australian Growth
2012200720021997 2017-2
0
2
4
%
-2
0
2
4
%GDP Growth
Year-ended
Quarterly
Source: ABS
Mining and Non-mining ActivityYear-ended growth, RBA estimates
Mining*Mining*
0
10
20
%
0
10
20
%
Mining investment
Resource exports
Non-mining
201320092005 20170
3
6
%
0
3
6
%
* Net of mining-related imports; components are contributions toyear-ended mining activity growth; contribution from changes ininventories not shown
Sources: ABS; RBA
2013200920052001 2017-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
%
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
%
State Final DemandYear-ended growth
Rest of Australia
WA
NSW and Vic
Sources: ABS; RBA
September 2017
GD
P
Con
sum
ptio
n
Dw
ellin
gin
vest
men
t
Min
ing
inve
stm
ent
Non
-min
ing
inve
stm
ent
Pub
licde
man
d
Exp
orts
Impo
rts
-2
-1
0
1
2
ppt
-2
-1
0
1
2
ppt
Contributions to GDP GrowthYear-ended
Sources: ABS; RBA
5CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Australian Inflation
Tradable and Non-tradable Inflation*Tradables**Tradables**
0
2
4
%
0
2
4
%
Year-ended
Quarterly(seasonally adjusted)
Non-tradables***Non-tradables***
2012200720021997 2017-2
0
2
4
%
-2
0
2
4
%
* Adjusted for the tax changes of 1999–2000** Excludes volatile items (fruit, vegetables & automotive fuel)*** Excludes interest charges prior to the September quarter 1998, anddeposit & loan facilities prior to the September quarter 2011
Sources: ABS; RBA
2012200720021997 2017-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
%
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
%Consumer Price Inflation*
Year-ended
Quarterly(seasonally adjusted)
* Excluding interest charges prior to the September quarter 1998 andadjusted for the tax changes of 1999–2000
Sources: ABS; RBA
2012200720021997 20170
1
2
3
4
5
%
0
1
2
3
4
5
%Underlying Inflation*
Weighted median
Trimmed mean
CPI excl volatile items
* Excluding interest charges prior to the September quarter 1998 andadjusted for the tax changes of 1999–2000
Sources: ABS; RBA
6CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Household Sector
20122007200219971992 20176
12
18
24
$b
6
12
18
24
$b
Private Dwelling Investment*Chain volume, quarterly
* Reference year is 2015/16Source: ABS
20122007200219971992 20170
4
8
12
16
20
’000
0
4
8
12
16
20
’000
Private Residential Building ApprovalsMonthly
Higher-density housing
Total
Detachedhouses
Source: ABS
Household Income and Consumption*Real, year-ended growth
0
5
10
%
0
5
10
%
Disposable income
Consumption
Saving ratio
20122007200219971992 2017-5
0
5
10
%
-5
0
5
10
%
* Household sector includes unincorporated enterprises; disposableincome is after tax and interest payments; income level smoothedwith a two-quarter moving average between March quarter 2000 andMarch quarter 2002; saving ratio is net of depreciation
Sources: ABS; RBA
2015201320112009 201770
85
100
index
70
85
100
index
Consumer Sentiment*Average since 1980 = 100
* Average of the ANZ-Roy Morgan and Westpac-Melbourne Instituteconsumer sentiment measure of respondents’ perceptions of theirpersonal finances relative to the previous year; ANZ-Roy Morganindex rescaled to have the same average as the Westpac-MelbourneInstitute index since 1996
Sources: ANZ-Roy Morgan; RBA; Westpac and Melbourne Institute
7CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Household Sector
20162014201220102008 2018-10
-5
0
5
10
15
%
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
%
Housing PricesYear-ended growth, seasonally adjusted
CoreLogic**
ABS*
Residex*
APM***
* ABS is a quarterly stratified median price index; Residex is a quarterlyrepeat sales price index** Monthly hedonic price index; non-seasonally adjusted*** Monthly stratified median price index
Sources: ABS; APM; CoreLogic; RBA; Residex
Housing Prices and Household Debt*Ratio to annual household disposable income
Housing prices
20041991 20172
3
4
5
ratio Household debt
20041991 20170.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
ratio
* Household disposable income is after tax, before the deduction ofinterest payments, and includes income of unincorporated enterprises
Sources: ABS; APM; APRA; CoreLogic; RBA
20132009200520011997 20170
200
400
600
%
0
200
400
600
%
Household Wealth and Liabilities*Per cent of annual household disposable income
Dwellings
Liabilities
Financial assets
Net wealth
* Household disposable income is after tax, before the deduction ofinterest payments, and includes income of unincorporated enterprises
Sources: ABS; RBA
201320092005 20170
5
10
15
20
25
$b
0
5
10
15
20
25
$bHousing Loan Approvals
Total
Owner-occupiers*
Investors**
* Excludes refinancing** Includes refinancingSources: ABS; RBA
8CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Business Sector
20122007200219971992 20170
2
4
6
8
%
0
2
4
6
8
%
Business Investment Components*Share of nominal GDP
Engineering
Buildings
Machinery and equipment
* Adjusted for second-hand asset transfers between the private andother sectors
Source: ABS
11 / 1206 / 0701 / 0296 / 9791 / 92 16 / 170
10
20
30
40
50
%
0
10
20
30
40
50
%Industry Share of Business Investment*
Mining
Construction
Retail andwholesale trade
Financial andinsurance services
Manufacturing
Other businessservices**
Agriculture
* Nominal; includes second hand asset transfers** Includes: information media and telecommunications; rental, hiringand real estate services; professional, scientific and technical services;administrative and support services
Source: ABS
20122007200219971992 201710
12
14
16
18
%
10
12
14
16
18
%
Business Investment*Share of nominal GDP
* Adjusted for second-hand asset transfers between the private andother sectors
Source: ABS
Capital Expenditure – Mining and Non-mining*Nominal, log scale
Mining
07 / 0897 / 98 17 / 182
4
8
16
32
64
128
$b Non-mining
04 / 0591 / 92 17 / 182
4
8
16
32
64
128
$b
* Dots are firms' expectations for 2017/18, adjusted for historicaldifferences between expected and realised spending
Sources: ABS; RBA
9CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Business Sector
NAB Business SurveyBusiness conditions*
-30
-15
0
15
ppt
-30
-15
0
15
ppt
Business confidence*
-30
-15
0
15
ppt
-30
-15
0
15
ppt
Capacity utilisation
20122007200219971992 201772
75
78
81
84
%
72
75
78
81
84
%
Average since 1989
* Net balance; deviation from average since 1989Sources: NAB; RBA
2013200920052001 20170
4
8
12
%
0
4
8
12
%
Private Non-financial Corporation Profits*Share of nominal GDP
Mining
Non-mining
* Gross operating profits; inventory valuation adjustedSources: ABS; RBA
Business FinancesBusiness credit
Per cent of nominal GDP
20092001 201730
40
50
60
70
% Interest paid*Per cent of profits**
20092001 20175
8
11
14
17
%
* Interest on intermediated debt from Australian-domiciled financialinstitutions** Profits are private non-financial gross operating surplus (adjustedfor privatisations) and gross mixed income
Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
10CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Credit and Money
20132009200520011997 20170
5
10
15
20
%
0
5
10
15
20
%
Monetary Aggregates GrowthYear-ended
M3
Currency
Sources: APRA; RBA
2013200920052001 2017-10
0
10
20
%
-10
0
10
20
%
Credit Growth by SectorYear-ended
Housing
Business
Personal
Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
20132009200520011997 20170
5
10
15
20
%
0
5
10
15
20
%
Credit and Broad Money GrowthYear-ended
Broad money
Credit
Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
20122007200219971992 20170.5
0.8
1.1
1.4
ratio
0.5
0.8
1.1
1.4
ratio
Credit*Ratio to nominal GDP
* Not adjusted for breaksSources: ABS; APRA; RBA
11CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Factors of Production and Labour Market
09 / 1002 / 0395 / 9688 / 8981 / 82 16 / 1780
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
index
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
index
Capital Ratios*1979/80 = 100
Capital-output ratio
Capital-labour ratio
* Capital stock excludes livestock & orchards, dwellings and ownershiptransfer costs
Sources: ABS; RBA
Unit Labour Costs GrowthNon-farm, year-ended
Unit labour costs
0
5
%
0
5
%
20132009200520011997 2017-5
0
5
%
-5
0
5
%
Labour productivity per hour
Average earningsper hour
Sources: ABS; RBA
Factors of ProductionAnnual growth
Net capital stock*
3
5
%
3
5
%
Working-age population
09 / 1002 / 0395 / 9688 / 8981 / 82 16 / 171.0
1.5
2.0
%
1.0
1.5
2.0
%
* Excluding livestock & orchards, dwellings and ownership transfer costsSources: ABS; RBA
2013200920052001 20170
1
2
3
4
%
0
1
2
3
4
%Wage Price Index Growth*
Year-ended
Quarterly
* Total pay excluding bonusesSource: ABS
12CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Factors of Production and Labour Market
2014201120082005 20172
4
6
8
%
2
4
6
8
%Labour Market
Underemployment rate*
Unemployment rate
* Full-time workers on reduced hours for economic reasons andpart-time workers who would like, and are available, to work more hours
Source: ABS
2013200920052001 20170.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
%
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
%
Job Vacancies and AdvertisementsPer cent of labour force
Vacancies*(ABS survey)
Advertisements(ANZ survey)
* This survey was suspended between May 2008 and November 2009Sources: ABS; ANZ
20132009200520011997 201755
58
61
64
%
55
58
61
64
%Employment and Participation Rates
Participation rate
Employment to working-age population
Source: ABS 20152013201120092007 201790
95
100
105
110
115
index
90
95
100
105
110
115
index
Employment and Hours Worked*2008 average = 100
Total hours worked
Average hours worked
Employment
* Smoothed lines are 13-period Henderson trendsSources: ABS; RBA
13CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Regions and Industry
11 / 1206 / 0701 / 0296 / 9791 / 92 16 / 172
6
10
14
%
2
6
10
14
%Industry Share of Output*
Mining
Manufacturing
Construction
Agriculture
Other business services**
Retail and wholesale trade
Financial and insuranceservices
* Nominal gross value added** Includes: information media and telecommunications; rental, hiringand real estate services; professional, scientific and technical services;administrative and support services
Source: ABS
Employment Growth by IndustryCumulative change since February 2012
2014 2017-200
0
200
400
600
’000
MiningConstruction
Retail andwholesale trade
Householdservices
2014 2017-200
0
200
400
600
’000
Manufacturing
Businessservices
Publicadministration
Other*
* Includes agriculture, forestry & fishing; transport, postal & warehousing;and electricity, gas, water & waste services
Source: ABS
11 / 1206 / 0701 / 0296 / 9791 / 92 16 / 170
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
%
State Share of OutputNominal
South Australia
Tasmania
Western Australia
Queensland
Victoria
New South Wales
Source: ABS
State Unemployment RatesTrend
20122007 20172
3
4
5
6
7
8
%
Queensland
New South Wales
Victoria
20122007 20172
3
4
5
6
7
8
%
South Australia
Western Australia
Tasmania
Source: ABS
14CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Government
20122007200219971992 20170
1
2
3
%
0
1
2
3
%
Public Construction Work DonePer cent of nominal GDP
Total
Engineering
Building
Source: ABS
11 / 1206 / 0701 / 0296 / 9791 / 92 16 / 17-10
0
10
20
30
%
-10
0
10
20
30
%
Non-financial Public Sector Net DebtPer cent of nominal GDP
Australian Government
Non-financial public sector
State and local general governments
Source: Australian Treasury
13 / 1406 / 0799 / 0092 / 9385 / 86 20 / 21-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
%
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
%
Australian Government Budget Balance*Per cent of nominal GDP
* Underlying cash balance; 2017/18 Mid-year economic and fiscal outlookSource: Australian Treasury
09 / 1003 / 0497 / 9891 / 9285 / 86 15 / 16-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
%
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
%
State Budget Balances*Per cent of nominal GDP
* Underlying cash balanceSource: ABS
15CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Commodity Prices
201220072002199719921987 201740
70
100
130
160
190
index
40
70
100
130
160
190
index
RBA Index of Commodity PricesSDR, 2015/16 average = 100, log scale
Source: RBA
BulkCommodity PricesFree on board basis
Iron ore(LHS)
2013 201730
75
120
165
US$/t Thermal coal(LHS)
2013 2017
Average Australianexport price
Coking coal(RHS)
2013 201750
150
250
350
US$/t
Spot price*
* Iron ore fines; Newcastle thermal coal and premium hard coking coalSources: ABS; Bloomberg; IHS; RBA
2002198719721957 201740
60
80
100
120
140index
40
60
80
100
120
140index
Terms of Trade*2015/16 average = 100, log scale
* Annual data are used prior to 1960Sources: ABS; RBA
Base Metals, Rural and Oil PricesWeekly
20132008 201825
50
75
100
125
150
index
Rural*
Base metals*
20132008 20180
25
50
75
100
125
US$/b
Brent oil
* RBA Index of Commodity Prices sub-indices; SDR terms; 2007average = 100
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
16CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Balance of Payments and External Position
Import VolumesQuarterly, 2015/16 prices, log scale
20092001 20172
4
8
16
32
$b
Consumption
Services
20092001 20172
4
8
16
32
$b
Capital
Intermediate
Source: ABS
2012200820042000 20160
5
10
15
20
25
30
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
%
Exports by DestinationAnnual, share of total values
Japan
China
USIndia
South Korea
EU - 27
Source: ABS
Export VolumesQuarterly, 2015/16 prices, log scale
20081999 201710
20
40
$b
Resources
20081999 20173
6
12
$b
Services
Rural
Manufacturing
Sources: ABS; RBA
Bulk Commodity ExportsQuarterly
Iron ore
20122007 201725
75
125
175
Mt Coal
20122007 201740
60
80
100
Mt
Sources: ABS; RBA
17CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Balance of Payments and External Position
2013200920052001 2017-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
%
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
%
Net Capital Inflow*Per cent of nominal GDP
Equity
Debt
Total
* 2017 values are year to September quarterSource: ABS
20122007200219971992 2017-9
-6
-3
0
%
-9
-6
-3
0
%
Current Account BalancePer cent of nominal GDP
Current account balance
Trade balanceNet income balance
Source: ABS
2013200920052001 2017-15
0
15
30
45
60
%
-15
0
15
30
45
60
%
Net Foreign LiabilitiesBy type, per cent of nominal GDP
Total
Equity
Short-term debt*
Long-term debt*
* Short-term includes debt with residual maturity of one year or less;long-term includes all other debt
Source: ABS
External PositionComposition after hedging, quarterly*
Gross foreign liabilities
201220070
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
$b Gross foreign assets
Foreign currency
Australian dollar
20122007 20170
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
$b
* Hedge ratios inferred from ABS Foreign Currency Exposure surveysSources: ABS; RBA
18CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
2015201220092006 2018-2
0
2
4
6
8
%
-2
0
2
4
6
8
%
Policy Interest Rates – SelectedAdvanced Economies
UK
CanadaSweden
NZ
Switzerland*
* Policy rate is the midpoint of the 3-month LIBOR target bandSource: Central banks
2012200720021997 2017-2
0
2
4
6
8
%
-2
0
2
4
6
8
%Australian Cash Rate and 90-day Bill Yield
Cash rate90-day bill yield
Real cash rate*
* Calculated using average of year-ended weighted median inflationand year-ended trimmed mean inflation
Sources: ABS; ASX; RBA
2015201220092006 2018-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
%
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
%Policy Interest Rates
US
Japan
Euro area*
* Main refinancing rate until the introduction of 3-year LTROs inDecember 2011; deposit facility rate thereafter
Source: Central banks
2014201020062002 20181
2
3
4
5
6
7
%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
%Australian Cash Rate
Source: RBA
Interest Rates
19CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
2014201020062002 2018-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
%
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
%10-year Government Bond Yields
Japan
Germany
US
Source: Thomson Reuters
Policy Interest Rates – Emerging Markets
20132008 20180
3
6
9
12
%
India
Malaysia
Thailand South Korea
Indonesia*
20132008 20180
4
8
12
16
%
Mexico
SouthAfrica
Russia*Brazil
* Breaks in series indicate changes in the official policy rates for Russia(September 2013) and Indonesia (August 2016)
Source: Central banks
201420102006 20180
2
4
6
%
0
2
4
6
%Interest Rates – China
1-yearbenchmark lending
(month average)7-day repo 1-year
benchmark deposit
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
2014201020062002 20181
2
3
4
5
6
7
%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
%10-year Australian Government Bond Yield
Source: RBA
Interest Rates
20CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
2013200920052001 20170
2
4
6
8
%
0
2
4
6
8
%Australian Corporate Bond Yields*
A rated
AA rated
BBB rated
Swap
* Swap rates are for 3-year maturity; corporate bond yields are aweighted average of senior bonds with remaining maturities of 1 to 5years, including financial and non-financial corporations
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; UBS AG, Australia Branch
2013200920052001 20170
100
200
300
400
500
bps
0
100
200
300
400
500
bps
Australian Corporate Bond Spreads*Spread over government yields
BBB rated
AA rated
A rated
Swap
* Swap spreads are for 3-year maturity; corporate bond spreads are aweighted average of senior bonds with remaining maturities of 1 to 5years, including financial and non-financial corporations
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; UBS AG, Australia Branch
20132008200319981993 2018-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
bps
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
bps
Differential between Australian andUS 10-year Government Bond Yields
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
20132008200319981993 2018-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
ppt
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
ppt
Spread between Australian 10-year BondYield and the Cash Rate
Source: RBA
Interest Rates
21CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
2013200820031998 20180
5
10
15
20
%
0
5
10
15
20
%
Emerging Market Bond YieldsUS dollar-denominated, blended yield
Europe
Latin America
Asia
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; Thomson Reuters
2013200820031998 20180
300
600
900
1 200
1 500
bps
0
300
600
900
1 200
1 500
bps
Emerging Market Bond SpreadsTo US government bonds, duration-matched
Europe
Latin America
Asia
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; Thomson Reuters
201620142012 2018-100
0
100
200
300
bps
-100
0
100
200
300
bps
US Corporate Bond SpreadsTo US government bonds
BBB corporates*
5-year swap
AA corporates*
* Includes financials and non-financialsSources: Bloomberg; ICE BAML
201620142012 20180
1
2
3
4
%
0
1
2
3
4
%US Corporate Bond Yields
AA corporates*
BBB corporates*
5-year swap
* Includes financials and non-financialsSources: Bloomberg; ICE BAML
Interest Rates
22CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
2012200720021997 20170
2
4
6
8
10
%
0
2
4
6
8
10
%
Australian Housing Lending RatesAverage interest rate on variable-rate loans
Banks’ indicator rate on new owner-occupier loans
Actual rate onoutstanding loans
Cash rate
Sources: ABS; APRA; Perpetual; RBA
2012200720021997 20170
2
4
6
8
10
12
%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
%
Australian Fixed Interest Rates3-year maturity
Small business
Swap rate
Housing*
* Available to owner-occupiersSources: Banks’ websites; Bloomberg; Canstar Cannex; RBA
2012200720021997 20176
7
8
9
10
11
%
6
7
8
9
10
11
%Advertised Small Business Interest Rates*
Overdraft other security
Term loan residential security
* Indicator ratesSources: APRA; Canstar Cannex; RBA
Australian Business Lending Rates*Average interest rate on outstanding lending
Small business
6
8
10
%
6
8
10
%
Large business
20132009200520011997 20172
4
6
8
%
2
4
6
8
%
* RBA estimatesSources: APRA; RBA
Interest Rates
23CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
2013200820031998 201840
100
200
300
400500600index
40
100
200
300
400500600index
Advanced Economies’ Share Price IndicesLog scale, end December 1994 = 100
Japan
Euro area US
UK
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
2013200820031998 201880
100
200
300
400
500
600index
80
100
200
300
400
500
600index
Australian and World Share Price IndicesLog scale, end December 1994 = 100
S&P 500
MSCI WorldASX 200
Sources: Bloomberg; MSCI; RBA
2013200820031998 201860
100
200
300
400
500600
index
60
100
200
300
400
500600index
Australian Share Price Indices*Log scale, end December 1994 = 100
Resources
Financials
All other sectors
* ASX 200 companiesSources: Bloomberg; RBA
2013200820031998 201840
100
200
500
1 000
1 500index
40
100
200
500
1 000
1 500index
Emerging Markets’ Share Price IndicesLog scale, end December 1994 = 100
Emerging Europe
Latin America
Emerging Asia
China
World
Sources: Bloomberg; MSCI; RBA
Share Markets
24CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
20132009200520011997 20170
2
4
6
%
0
2
4
6
%Dividend Yields
ASX 200
MSCI Worldexcluding Australia
Sources: Bloomberg; MSCI; Thomson Reuters
2014201120082005 2017250
300
350
400
450
index
250
300
350
400
450
index
Forecast Earnings per ShareMSCI Australia
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/20092009/2010
2010/2011
2011/2012
2013/2014
2014/2015
2015/2016
2016/2017
2012/2013
2017/2018
Source: Thomson Reuters
2014201020062002 20180
10
20
ratio
0
10
20
ratioForward PE Ratios
MSCI Worldexcluding Australia
ASX 200
Sources: Bloomberg; MSCI; Thomson Reuters
Share Markets
Non-financial corporationsFinancials**
2014201020062002 2018-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
$b
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
$bAustralian Net Equity Raisings*
* All listed companies** Includes banks and non-bank financialsSources: ASX; RBA
25CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
20122007200219971992 20170
50
100
150
$b
0
50
100
150
$bNon-government Bonds on Issue in Australia
Asset-backed securities*
Non-financialcorporations
Non-residents
Financials
* Excludes ADIs’ self-securitisationsSources: ABS; RBA
Non-government Bond IssuanceGross issuance
AustraliaDomestic issuers*Non-resident issuers**
20
40
$b
20
40
$b
Offshore
2013200920052001 20170
20
40
60
$b
0
20
40
60
$b
* Excludes ADIs’ self-securitisations** Offshore non-resident issuance includes Australian dollar-denominatedbonds only
Source: RBA
20122007200219971992 20170
150
300
450
$b
0
150
300
450
$b
Total Non-government Bonds on IssueAll currency denominations
Financials
Non-financialcorporations
Non-residents*Asset-backed
securities
* Australian dollar-denominated bonds onlySources: ABS; RBA
20122007200219971992 20170
100
200
300
400
500
$b
0
100
200
300
400
500
$bBonds on Issue in Australia
Non-government**
Australian government*
Stategovernments
* Excludes bonds purchased by the Australian Government** Excludes ADIs’ self-securitisations, includes government-guaranteedbonds
Sources: ABS; AOFM; RBA; State Treasury Corporations
Bond Issuance
26CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Bond Issuance
US and Euro Area Corporate Bond Issuance*Gross issuance
USFinancialsNon-financials
100
200
300
400US$b
100
200
300
400US$b
Euro area
2015201220092006 20180
200
400
600
800US$b
0
200
400
600
800US$b
* March quarter-to-dateSources: Dealogic; RBA
Emerging Market Corporate Bond Issuance*Gross issuance
China
Foreign currency-denominatedLocal currency-denominated
100
200
US$b
100
200
US$b
Other
2015201220092006 20180
50
100
150
US$b
0
50
100
150
US$b
* March quarter-to-dateSources: Dealogic; RBA
27CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Official Reserve Assets*
20
40
60
80
A$b
20
40
60
80
A$b
Official reserve assets
Net foreign reserves**
20132009200520011997 2017-4-2024
A$b
-4-2024A$bRBA foreign exchange market intervention transactions***
* The reporting methodology for official reserve asset data changesin 2015** Excludes net forward foreign currency commitments*** Data up to 30 June 2017; a positive value indicates a purchase offoreign exchange, while a negative value indicates a sale of foreignexchange
Source: RBA
20122006200019941988 201850
100
150
200
yen
0.40
0.80
1.20
1.60
US$,euro
Australian Dollar
Yen per A$(LHS)
(RHS)
US$ per A$(RHS)
Euro per A$*
* ECU per A$ until 31 December 1998Source: Bloomberg
20122006200019941988 201840
50
60
70
80
index
40
50
60
70
80
indexAustralian Dollar Trade-weighted Index*
Nominal
Real
* May 1970 = 100 for nominal; real indexed to equate post-floataverages; latest observations for real TWI are estimates
Sources: ABS; RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Exchange Rates
28CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
2014201020062002 201840
60
80
100
120
140
index
40
60
80
100
120
140
index
Selected Asian Currencies against the US Dollar31 January 2000 = 100
India
Thailand
South Korea
Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia
Source: Bloomberg
20112004199719901983 201850
90
130
170
210
250
yen
2.90
2.50
2.10
1.70
1.30
0.90
US$US Dollar
(LHS)Yen per US$
US$ per euro*(RHS, inverted scale)
* US$ per ECU until 31 December 1998Sources: Bloomberg; Eurostat
2014201020062002 201860
70
80
90
100
110
120
index
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
yuanChinese Renminbi
(LHS, 2010 average = 100)
Yuan per US$(RHS, inverted scale)
Nominal effective exchange rate
Sources: BIS; Bloomberg; RBA2014201020062002 201880
90
100
110
120
index
80
90
100
110
120
index
G3 Nominal Trade-weighted Indices1999–2018 average = 100
US dollar
Euro
Japanese yen
Sources: BIS; Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal ReserveSystem
Exchange Rates
29CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Australian Bank ProfitsNet profit after tax Bad and doubtful debts charge
Major banks
6
12
$b Major banks
6
12
$b
Other Australian-ownedbanks
1.1
2.2
$b Other Australian-ownedbanks
1.1
2.2
$b
Foreign-owned banks
20122007 2017-1.5
0.0
1.5
$b Foreign-owned banks
20122007 2017-1.5
0.0
1.5
$b
Sources: APRA; RBA
201220072002199719921987 2017-10
0
10
20
%
-10
0
10
20
%
Australian Bank Profitability*Return on shareholders’ equity after tax and minority interests
Majors
Other Australian-owned banks
* Fiscal years from 2003 onwards; prior data are as reported in banksfinancial statements
Sources: APRA; Banks’ annual reports; RBA
2013200920052001 20171.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
%
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
%
Major Banks’ Net Interest Margin*Domestic, half-yearly
* From 2006 data are on an IFRS basis; prior years are on AGAAPbasis; excludes St George Bank and Bankwest prior to the first halfof 2009
Sources: Banks’ Financial Reports; RBA
Banking Indicators
30CHART PACK | FEBRUARY 2018
Banks’ Non-performing AssetsDomestic books
Share of all loans
20122007 20170
1
2
3
4
%
Total
Share of loans by type*
20122007 20170
1
2
3
4
%
Housing
Personal
Business**
(4%)
(35%)
(61%)
* Each category’s share of total domestic lending at September 2017is shown in parentheses; shares may not add up to 100 due to rounding** Includes lending to financial businesses, bills, debt securities andother non-household loans
Sources: APRA; RBA
20122007200219971992 20170
2
4
6
%
0
2
4
6
%
Banks’ Non-performing AssetsConsolidated global operations, share of on-balance sheet assets
Total*
Impaired
* Includes assets 90+ days past due that are well securedSource: APRA
2014201120082005 20170
10
20
30
40
50
60
%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
%
Funding Composition of Banks in Australia*Share of total funding
Domestic deposits
Short-term debt**
EquitySecuritisation
Long-term debt
* Adjusted for movements in foreign exchange rates; tenor of debt isestimated on a residual maturity basis** Includes deposits and intragroup funding from non-residents
Sources: APRA; RBA; Standard & Poor’s
Capital Ratios*Consolidated global operations of locally incorporated ADIs
Banks
20051993 20170
5
10
15
%
Total
Tier 1
Common Equity Tier 1
Tier 2
Other ADIs
20051993 20170
5
10
15
%
Building societies
Credit unions
* Per cent of risk-weighted assets; break in March 2008 due to theintroduction of Basel II for most ADIs; break in March 2013 due to theintroduction of Basel III for all ADIs
Source: APRA
Banking Indicators