the australian air quality forecasting system -...

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

THE AUSTRALIAN AIR QUALITY FORECASTING SYSTEM -

Lessons Learned and Looking Forward

Martin Cope, Sunhee Lee, Alan Wain and Dale Hess

www.cawcr.gov.au


Air Quality- Australian Coastal Airsheds

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1994-1995

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2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

Num

ber o

f day

s

BushfireinfluencedNo bushfires

Sydney: Days per year 1-h O3 > 0.1 ppm

(DECC- Trends in air quality in New South Wales 1994-2006)

Ozone

Particles

Sydney 2009 Sept dust storm at Sunrise


Air Quality- Rural Cities

16/12/06 23/12/06 30/12/06 6/01/07 13/01/07

Ozo

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ntra

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[ppb

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PM2.

5 con

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g/m

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OzonePM2.5

16/04/07 23/04/07 30/04/07 7/05/07 14/05/07

Ozo

ne c

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[ppb

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PM2.

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ratio

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Daily PM2.5 levels

Hourly O3 levels

Wildfires 2006/2007

AAQS-PM exceeded for 13 days

Prescribed burning

AAQS-PM exceeded for 7 days

A fire impacted rural site- Ovens Valley


Particles <10 m (1-hour average). Selected EPA Victoria Sites

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NC

ENTR

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( g

m-3

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MilduraBendigoAlphington

PM10 (hourly average)

A dust impacted rural site- Mildura

• Many of the largest dust impacts (frequency and magnitude) are experienced by rural cities.

Map of mean DSI for the period 1992 to 2005

(DSI- dust storm index)

1/01/05 3/01/05 5/01/05 7/01/05

Air Quality- Rural Cities

(Data- EPA Victoria)


Air Quality Forecasting Systems in Australia

AAQFS forecast domainsDust, smoke, O3, NO2, PM10,PM2.5, AQI

Haze-botWinter wood smoke

Low visibility(EPA -> Bureau)

Expert SystemOzone, visibility

Heuristic + BureauSmoke(EPA)

StatisticalPM10

(Bureau)

Expert Systemozone, visibility

(EPA)

Expert SystemOzone, visibility(EPA->Bureau)

AQ forecasts typically for 24 to 36 h

CFS- smoke(EPA)

Australian grid-meso_LAPS (0.125°)-CTM (0.20°); offline; dust and smoke 36-h forecast issued daily

Australian Air Quality Forecasting System

Regional and urban grids

138.1 138.3 138.5 138.7 138.9

LONGITUDE

-35.3

-35.1

-34.9

-34.7

-34.5

LATI

TUD

E

ALDINGA BEACH

MALLALA

McLAREN VALE

ADELAIDE

GAWLER

MT. BARKER

LOBETHAL

GULFST. VINCENT

144.2 144.4 144.6 144.8 145.0 145.2 145.4

EASTING

-38.4

-38.2

-38.0

-37.8

-37.6

NO

RTH

ING

CRANBOURNE

FRANKSTON

DANDENONG

BRIGHTONPAISLEY

SYDENHAM

MT DANDENONG

SUNBURY

PANTON HILL

WERRIBEE

PORT PHILLIPBAY

BASS STRAIT

MELBOURNE

GEELONG

150.5 150.6 150.7 150.8 150.9 151.0 151.1 151.2 151.3 151.4EASTING

-34.1

-34.0

-33.9

-33.8

-33.7

-33.6

NO

RTH

ING

TASMANSEA

RICHMOND

SYDNEY

CAMDEN

MASCOT

PENRITH

HOMEBUSH

LIVERPOOL

WARRAGAMBA

Adelaide

Regional and urban grids-NWP meso_LAPS (0.05°)-CTM (0.05 and 0.01°); -gas-phase primary and photochemical smog species; -aerosol species include dust, sea salt, primary aerosols (domestic wood combustion, motor vehicle) + secondary (simple) inorganic.-24-36 hour forecasts issued twice per day

http://www.dar.csiro.au/information/aaqfs.html

(Set up for the Sydney 2000 Olympics)


Numerical Weather Prediction System

EmissionsProcessing

System + Data

3-dimensionalair pollution

concentrationforecasts

Chemical TransportModel

Verification System+ AQ data

Web + Graphical DisplaySystems

Australian Air Quality Forecasting System

Provided by the State Environment Departments

Bureau of

Meteorology

CSIRO

Provided to the State Environment Departments

NMOC

00 UTC and12 UTC

forecasts

Ozone forecasting


144.2 144.4 144.6 144.8 145.0 145.2 145.4LONGITUDE (degrees)

-38.4

-38.2

-38.0

-37.8

-37.6

LATI

TUD

E (d

egre

es) ALPH

BXHL MTCL

PTCK

PAIS

BRTN

RMIT

GSTH GRVD

PORT PHILLIPBAY

BASS STRAIT

MELBOURNE

GEELONG

G

W E

Melbourne60 ppb

PersistenceRegional 0.13Sub-regional 0.12Point 0.13

1200 UTCRegional 0.73Sub-regional 0.33Point 0.23

POD


Wind-blown Dust Forecasting

143.0 144.0 145.0 146.0 147.0

-40.0

-39.0

-38.0

-37.0

-36.0

MELBOURNE

WANGARATTA

BENDIGO

BALLARAT

WARRAGULGEELONG

WODONGASHEPPARTON

CASTLEMAINE

BASS STRAIT

02468101112141516182021222425262830

NSW

VICTORIA

SOIL TYPE143.0 144.0 145.0 146.0 147.0

-40.0

-39.0

-38.0

-37.0

-36.0

MELBOURNE

WANGARATTA

BENDIGO

BALLARAT

WARRAGULGEELONG

WODONGASHEPPARTON

CASTLEMAINE

BASS STRAIT

02468101112141516182021222425262830

NSW

VICTORIA

SOIL TYPE141 142 143 144 145 146 147

-41

-40

-39

-38

-37

-36

-35

MELBOURNE

WANGARATTA

BENDIGO

WARRAGULGEELONG

WODONGA

CASTLEMAINE

SWANHILL

HORSHAM

WARRNAMBOOL

KING IS

TASMANIA

BASS STRAIT

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

NSW

VICTORIA

LAI: June(Hua Lu 2003)

141 142 143 144 145 146 147-41

-40

-39

-38

-37

-36

-35

MELBOURNE

WANGARATTA

BENDIGO

WARRAGULGEELONG

WODONGA

CASTLEMAINE

SWANHILL

HORSHAM

WARRNAMBOOL

KING IS

TASMANIA

BASS STRAIT

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

NSW

VICTORIA

LAI: June141 142 143 144 145 146 147

-41

-40

-39

-38

-37

-36

-35

MELBOURNE

WANGARATTA

BENDIGO

WARRAGULGEELONG

WODONGA

CASTLEMAINE

SWANHILL

HORSHAM

WARRNAMBOOL

KING IS

TASMANIA

BASS STRAIT

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

NSW

VICTORIA

LAI: June(Hua Lu 2003)

141 142 143 144 145 146 147-41

-40

-39

-38

-37

-36

-35

MELBOURNE

WANGARATTA

BENDIGO

WARRAGULGEELONG

WODONGA

CASTLEMAINE

SWANHILL

HORSHAM

WARRNAMBOOL

KING IS

TASMANIA

BASS STRAIT

0

0.009

0.015

0.021

0.027

VICTORIA

NSW

TASMANIASOIL MOISTURE CONTENT (kg kg-1 )

6 JUNE 2003: HOUR 21:00

141 142 143 144 145 146 147-41

-40

-39

-38

-37

-36

-35

MELBOURNE

WANGARATTA

BENDIGO

WARRAGULGEELONG

WODONGA

CASTLEMAINE

SWANHILL

HORSHAM

WARRNAMBOOL

KING IS

TASMANIA

BASS STRAIT

0

0.009

0.015

0.021

0.027

VICTORIA

NSW

TASMANIASOIL MOISTURE CONTENT (kg kg-1 )141 142 143 144 145 146 147

-41

-40

-39

-38

-37

-36

-35

MELBOURNE

WANGARATTA

BENDIGO

WARRAGULGEELONG

WODONGA

CASTLEMAINE

SWANHILL

HORSHAM

WARRNAMBOOL

KING IS

TASMANIA

BASS STRAIT

0

0.009

0.015

0.021

0.027

VICTORIA

NSW

TASMANIASOIL MOISTURE CONTENT (kg kg-1 )

6 JUNE 2003: HOUR 21:00

141 142 143 144 145 146 147-41

-40

-39

-38

-37

-36

-35

MELBOURNE

WANGARATTA

BENDIGO

WARRAGULGEELONG

WODONGA

CASTLEMAINE

SWANHILL

HORSHAM

WARRNAMBOOL

KING IS

TASMANIA

BASS STRAIT

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NSW

VICTORIA

6 JUNE 2003: HOUR 21:00

Emissions (kg/s)

141 142 143 144 145 146 147-41

-40

-39

-38

-37

-36

-35

MELBOURNE

WANGARATTA

BENDIGO

WARRAGULGEELONG

WODONGA

CASTLEMAINE

SWANHILL

HORSHAM

WARRNAMBOOL

KING IS

TASMANIA

BASS STRAIT

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NSW

VICTORIA

6 JUNE 2003: HOUR 21:00

PM10 (g/m3)

Lu, H. and Y. Shao dust scheme

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/

10:00 EST October 23rd 2002

AAQFS-dust verification with MODIS

Verification through analysis of extreme events

Nov-Jan 2006

d_fac0.5 (Op)

d_fac0.75

forecast 4 4missed 1 1

false alarm 4 1

AAQFS Validation Project Results

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Latitude (deg)

Alti

tude

(km

)

2006-11-16 17:00 UTC AAQFS Dust PM-60

-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10 0

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AAQFS-dust validation with CALIPSO


135.0 136.0 137.0 138.0 139.0 140.0

LONGITUDE

-37.0

-36.0

-35.0

-34.0

-33.0

-32.0

LATI

TUD

E

PORT LINCOLN

WHYALLA

PORT AUGUSTA

PORT PIRIE

CAPE JERVIS

ADELAIDE

GAWLER

CLARE

MAITLAND

KIMBA

KANGAROO IS

MURRAYBRIDGE

WOOMERA

Location of Sentinel hotspots11-12 Jan 2005

Smoke Plume Envelope Forecasting

•Retrieve automated hotspot locations via satellite images•Process the data to determine fire locations•Initiate qualitative emissions at source locations and compute transport and dispersion as a passive scalar

135.0 136.0 137.0 138.0 139.0 140.0

LONGITUDE

-37.0

-36.0

-35.0

-34.0

-33.0

-32.0

LATI

TUD

E

PORT LINCOLN

WHYALLA

PORT AUGUSTA

PORT PIRIE

CAPE JERVIS

CLARE

MAITLAND

KIMBA

KANGAROO IS

WOOMERA

NETLEYELIZABETH

NORTHFIELD

17:00 Jan 11, 2005

Smoke plume impacts Adelaideas observedhttp://sentinel2.ga.gov.au/acres/sentinel/index.shtml

Latest fire module in CTM

Observed and modelled 1-h concentration time series for ozone at Geelong South.

Ozone concentration time series are for December 2006. Three plume rise scenarios

020406080

100120140160180

0 48 96 144 192 240 288 336 384 432 480 528 576 624 672

Co

ncen

trati

on

(p

pb

)

Time (h)

Geelong South: 1-h O3

obs_conc no f ires 1000 m2000m 3000 m

Melbourne

Alpine fire

TAPM-CTM

Inline chemical transportCarbon Bond V chemistry;

VBS for SOA; ISORROPIA-II


AAQFS- lessons learned

• Ozone (non-fire), large dust storms and fires are forecast reasonably well.

• Urban particles are not well predicted. • 0.05º NWP meteorology is above urban scale; and the

nocturnal pbl is poorly represented.• Air emissions inventories for particles were problematic

(but have since improved).• Smoke is modelled as a tracer, hence no coupling between smoke and ozone/secondary particles.

• Dust forecasting relies on some climatological data (not good for droughts)

SCIENCE


AAQFS- lessons learned

• Inventories are not readily updated by the EPAs • Little on-going support in-house to maintain the system and address science and logistical problems

• Little on-going support to promote AQ forecasting to external stakeholders

LOGISTICAL


Australian AQ forecasting- looking forward

• Focus on improving our forecasting capability for dust and smoke

• Large scale impacts, likely to increase under a warming trend;• Significant local-regional scale impacts of extended planned burning

season• Particles and photochemical smog

• Volcanic ash forecasting for aviation

Projection of dust events for summer months in Victoria, Australia

• Dynamical downscaling• ESM -> Regional Atmosphere -> Dust emission + transport;• Four GCM model ensemble• 50 km resolution across Australia;• Decadal simulations of dusty months (Jan and Feb)

•1996 – 2005; 2065 - 2074

10 year frequency (PM10 > 50 g/m3)

Dust Event

PM10 >50 µgm-3 Extreme Dust Event

PM10 >100 µgm3

Decade 1 Decade 3 Change Decade 1 Decade 3 Change

MK35 207 206 -0.5% 128 135 +5%

ECHAM 201 192 -4% 125 125 0%

UKMO 194 177 -9% 122 120 -2%

GFDL 204 213 +4% 133 140 +5%

Average -2% ± 6% +2% ± 4%

Thank you


Thank-you

www.cawcr.gov.au

‐10%

‐5%

0%

5%

10%

MK35 ECHAM UKMO GFDL

RELATIVE

CHAN

GE

GCM CLIMATOLOGY

2070 ‐ 2000 RELATIVE CHANGE

Frequency of PM10 >50 µg/m3Frequency of PM10 >100 µg/m3

the australian air quality forecasting system -...

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