the advent of a new millennium in idaho higher education.presentation to: joint finance...

Western Interstate Commission For Higher Education

ALASKA • ARIZONA • CALIFORNIA • COLORADO • HAWAI‘ I • IDAHO • MONTANA • NEVADA • NEW MEXICO • NORTH DAKOTA OREGON • SOUTH DAKOTA • UTAH • WASHINGTON • WYOMING • U.S. PACIFIC TERRITORIES & FREELY ASSOCIATED STATES

The Advent of a New Millennium in Idaho Higher Education. Presentation to: Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee Idaho Legislature

David A Longanecker, president, WICHE Boise, Idaho January 26, 2016

Measuring Up 2002: Where Idaho Stood

Preparation: D+ Participation: D Affordability: B- Completion: C Benefits: C Learning: Incomplete

Living In These Interesting Times -- Quite A Ride

The times they are a changing The way we provide education is changing Who we educate is changing The way we assess the quality of our enterprise is

changing The way we finance the enterprise is changing

The Way We Provide Education Is Changing

Enrollment 2000 2014 Delta U.S. Undergrad 13,142,996 17,278,939 31%

Public 80% 77% 19%

Private 17% 16% 25%

For Profit 3% 7% 217%

WICHE 3,585,697 4,690,587 31%

Public 88% 80% 19%

Private 8% 9% 44%


The Way We Provide Education Is Changing

Enrollment 2000 2014 Delta U.S. Undergrad 13,142,996 17,278,939 31%

Public 80% 77% 19%

Private 17% 16% 25%


WICHE 3,585,697 4,690,587 31%

Public 88% 80% 19%

Private 8% 9% 44%


Idaho 57,968 110,962 91%

Public 81% 63% 48%

Private 18% 36% 264%


The Way We Provide Education Is Changing: On-line learning

How Were We Providing Higher Education in 2000

Share of students participating in On-line Education (2002) At least one online course: 10% Full time in Online Courses: 2%

How Are We Providing Higher Education Today Share of students participating in On-line Education (2013) At least one online course: 27% Full time in Online Courses: 13%

The Way We Provide Education Is Changing: Competency Based Learning

How Were We Providing Higher Education in 2000 The Novelty of Competency Based Institutions Two “Known” Entities:

– WGU (1,200 students) – Alverno College (2,500 students)

How Are We Providing Higher Education Today The Competency Wave WGU having grown to 48,000 students 23 members of the Competency-Based Education Network The Biggies: Alverno, Brandman, Capella, College for America (Southern New

Hampshire), Community Colleges of Spokane, Northern Arizona University, University of Wisconsin, Western Governors University

Combined enrollments: more than 100,000 in whole; millions in part Prior Learning Assessment (PLA): Becoming Ubiquitous (except where it is not)

The Way We Provide Education Is Changing The innovation wave

New providers of degrees

The expansion of the for-profit sector The expansion of most institutions on-line

New providers of courses & services Courses only – MOOCS, Straighter Line, DreamDegree, Pearsons,

Hobsons, etc. Support services only – Insidetrack, Kahn Academy, Smarthinking,

etc. Tweener providers -- Boot Camps, App Academy An Abundance of credentials – degrees, certificates, badges, etc. The Question -- Chaos or Creative Engagement and Progress

Who We Educate Is Changing

Idaho

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic White, non-Hispanic

Who we educate is changing

Changes in the non-traditional aged population are significant

Who we educate is changing – Adult Students

25-44 Year Old 2001

25-44 Year Old 2013

Idaho

WICHE

US

Idaho

WICHE

US

25-34 Year Old Undergraduate Participation Rate

3.5% 4.7% 3.7% 6.0% 5.0% 3.8%

NCHEMS/Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Survey

Difference in College Attainment Between Whites and Minorities (Blacks, Hispanics, Native Americans) (2008-10)

35.1

34

.5

33.7

32

.1

29.5

29

.5

29.3

29

.0

28.8

28

.5

28.4

27

.6

26.8

26

.3

26.1

25

.8

25.6

25

.4

25.3

25

.3

24.0

23

.2

23.1

22

.6

22.3

22

.3

22.2

21

.7

21.5

21

.3

21.1

20

.9

20.0

19

.5

19.3

16

.9

16.8

16

.3

15.7

15

.5

15.2

15

.0

14.9

14

.8

13.5

13

.4

13.0

12

.0

8.8

8.5

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

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slide 15

Average Annual Education Attainment of Idaho Residents Aged 25-44, White and Underrepresented Minorities, 2011-13

5.4

25.9 28.5

10.7

21.6

7.8

35.7

30.1

19.2

5.5 7.1

2.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Less than High School

High School Graduates

Some College, No Degree

Just an Associate

Degree

Just a Bachelor's

Degree

Graduate or Professional

Degree

White URM

Note: Underrepresented Minorities = Black, Hispanic, Native American/Alaska Native) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011-13 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata

Sample (PUMS) File.


Why this is a huge issue. An issue of equity and social justice An economic imperative -- the big change since

2000

New Economy 2015 Index (Source: Kauffman Foundation, 2015)


Looking down College/Postsecondary in high schools (AP, dual &

concurrent enrolment, IB, CTE, early college schools) Improving Preparation Common Core/Higher Ed for Higher Standards Reinventing Remedial – The High School as partner

Looking up Adult College Completion


Changes in the traditional aged population are significant – Enrollment in Idaho Racial Identity 2003 2013

African American 1% 1%

American Indian/Alaska Native 1% 1%

Asian/Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 2% 2%

Hispanic 3% 8%

White (Non-Hispanic) 89% 73%

Two or More Races -- 3%

Unidentified/Foreign 4% 12%

The way we assess the quality of our enterprise is changing

Completion is the name of the game So, How are we doing? On attainment

U.S. States % OECD Country Korea (65.7)

60 Japan

58 Canada

56 Massachusetts

North Dakota 54

Minnesota 52 New York

50 Luxembourg New Jersey Ireland

Connecticut 48 United Kingdom Nebraska, Illinois, Virginia New Zealand, Australia

Pennsylvania, Colorado, Maryland, Rhode Island, Iowa 46 Vermont, South Dakota, Wisconsin Norway

Kansas, New Hampshire 44 Israel, UNITED STATES Hawaii, Montana Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, France

Washington, Missouri, Utah 42 Wyoming, Ohio Poland, Switzerland

Delaware, Michigan, Maine, California, North Carolina, Oregon 40 Denmark, Estonia, Finland Florida Spain

38 Iceland Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia, Indiana Slovenia, Greece

Kentucky 36

Texas, Idaho, Arizona West Virginia 34

Alabama, Oklahoma, Alaska, New Mexico Louisiana 32

Arkansas, Mississippi Nevada 30 Hungary

Germany 28 Portugal, Czech Republic

Slovakia 26

24 Mexico Austria

22 Chile, Italy Turkey

20

Difference in College Attainment between Young Adults (25-34) and Older Adults (45-64), 2011

11.1

9.

7 9.

3 9.

2 8.

9 8.

4 7.

2 7.

2 6.

6 6.

4 6.

0 5.

9 5.

6 5.

5 5.

5 5.

4 4.

2 4.

0 3.

9 3.

8 3.

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey

slide 23


Completion is the name of the game So, How are you doing? On Completions

The Way We Assess the Quality of Our Enterprise Is Changing

Completions 2001 2014 Delta US Assoc &Bach Degrees

1,799,855 2,869,639 59%

Public 70% 69% 57%

Private 25% 21% 32%


WICHE 410,737 715,638 74%

Public 77% 70% 58%

Private 16% 12% 30%


Idaho 9,751 16,118 65%

Public 59% 61% 69%

Private 38% 36% 56%



Completion is the name of the game Competency is the new coin of the realm.

Competency Assessment: for the Student Transfer and Articulation - Trusting the community (Passport) Demonstrated college level learning outside the Academy

Prior Leaning Assessment – PLA CLEP, testing out, etc.

Competency Assessment: for the Institution (Educational Improvement & Credibility) Predictive Analytics/MLDE Degree Qualifications Profiles Tuning

Competency Based Education As a New Delivery Model Direct Assessment Institutions CBE Straight Up


Completion is the name of the game Competency is the new coin of the realm. Assessment of student learning finally has legs

Student Learning – the new name of the game

Why now Readiness has “evolved” “Evidence based practice” has caught on in public policy Analytics can support evidence based practice (CLA, CAAP, ETS

Proficiency Profile, AHELO, Work-keys, PLA, etc.) Angst

Whopping big change – moving to external validity Still sorting out

Teacher’s role Institution’s role Governing board’s role Government’s role

Productivity as part of the Quality Dimension

How Does Idaho Higher Education Measure Up

Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures – Total: Public Colleges & Universities

U.S.= $54,348/Degree ID = $47,393/Degree

Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures – Public Research Universities

U.S. = $54,945/Degree ID= $47,393/Degree

Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures – Public Bachelor’s & Master’s Colleges & Universities

U.S. = $45,455/Degree ID = $43,103/Degree

Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures – Public Two-Year Institutions

U.S. = $63,291/Degree ID = $ 60,606/Degree

National Student Clearinghouse Information on Student Completion in Six Years

Completion Not Enrolled or Completed

Idaho US Idaho US

Public Universities 44% 63% 32% 23%

Community/2 yr Colleges 38% 39% 47% 43%

The Way We Finance The Enterprise Is Changing

How Does Idaho Compare


$8,

615

$8,

520

$8,

301

$7,

842

$7,

572

$7,

670

$7,

920

$8,

006

$8,

305

$8,

577

$8,

799

$8,

717

$8,

964

$8,

638

$7,

993

$7,

457

$7,

401

$7,

764

$7,

958

$8,

081

$7,

553

$7,

013

$6,

737

$6,

122

$6,

215

$6,

552

$2,

792

$2,

840

$2,

937

$3,

175

$3,

377

$3,

494

$3,

587

$3,

709

$3,

762

$3,

787

$3,

789

$3,

606

$3,

736

$3,

750

$3,

834

$4,

034

$4,

193

$4,

475

$4,

547

$4,

482

$4,

560

$4,

769

$4,

962

$5,

348

$5,

624

$5,

777

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Dol

lars

per

FTE

Publ

ic F

TE E

nrol

lmen

t (M

illio

ns)

Net Tuition Revenue per FTE (constant $) Educational Appropriations per FTE (constant $) Public FTE Enrollment

Note: Constant 2014 dollars adjusted by SHEEO Higher Education Cost Adjustment. Educational Appropriations include ARRA funds. (HECA)


$10

,406

$10

,106

$10

,534

$9,

914

$9,

288

$9,

444

$9,

597

$9,

603

$9,

468

$9,

829

$10

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$10

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$10

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$10

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$9,

422

$8,

765

$8,

785

$8,

904

$9,

186

$9,

664

$9,

431

$7,

778

$6,

638

$5,

640

$6,

132

$6,

434

$1,

604

$1,

524

$1,

642

$1,

721

$1,

858

$2,

061

$2,

055

$2,

081

$2,

056

$2,

400

$2,

336

$2,

446

$2,

462

$1,

700

$2,

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$2,

226

$2,

441

$2,

535

$2,

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$2,

325

$2,

485

$2,

781

$3,

027

$3,

304

$3,

682

$3,

914

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Dol

lars

per

FTE

Publ

ic F

TE E

nrol

lmen

t (T

hous

ands

)

Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriations and Total Educational Revenue per FTE, Idaho -- Fiscal 1989-2014

Net Tuition Revenue per FTE (constant $) Educational Appropriations per FTE (constant $) Public FTE Enrollment

Note: Constant 2014 dollars adjusted by SHEEO Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA). Educational Appropriations include ARRA funds. Source: SHEEO

The Importance of These Statistics To Idaho Today and Tomorrow

Funding story is a mixed bag with respect to higher education State Funding is average:

@ $6,434, it is $118 (2%) below the national average

State Tax Effort: 7.2% Effective Tax Rate Slightly below national 7.6%

State Share of Tax Effort to Higher Education: 7.3% Well above the national average of 5.8% 4th highest in the WICHE region (trailing only New

Mexico, Wyoming, and Utah)

The Importance of These Statistics To Idaho Today and Tomorrow

But Overall Funding is another story: @ $10,348, it is $$1,981 (16%) below the national average

How Is That Possible: – Tuition is comparatively high or low, depending:

» @ $3,749 for 2 year institutions • It is 7% above the WICHE average • And 9% above the National average

» @ $6,817 for 4 year institutions • It is 13% below the WICHE average • And 28% below the National average

– Financial Aid: » Modest in total: $5 million in 2013-14 » Very Modest for needy students: $1.4 million in 2013-14 (4th lowest in the country

at that time)

Net effect: Share of income required has increased appreciable over last decade. From 2.7% to 6.5% in community colleges From 6.9% to 12.% in universities


Why a new normal & not return to the old normal Can’t afford the old normal

Hyper-inflationary model is unsustainable (unaffordable)

What the new normal looks like Performance funding is the wave in most states – not Idaho But not the only game in town

Affordability issues driving focus on costs & price Tuition Policy & Financial Aid sharing the stage Generally lacking true integration of finance policies –

Appropriations, Tuition Policy, and Financial Aid in Sync Speaks to the wisdom of the Governor’s Request

Summing it all up

The times they are a changing The way we provide education is changing Who we educate is changing The way we assess the quality of our enterprise is

changing The way we finance the enterprise is changing

Summing it all up

What this has wrought for Idaho Preparation: from D+ to C Participation: from D to

C- for traditional students B for older students

Affordability: from B- to C

Completion: from C to D

Quality/Learning: from Incomplete to B+ on productivity Incomplete on student learning outcomes

Summing it all up Where to from here for Idaho

If you’re comfortable with a C+ average, stay the course

If you want something more, change is the logical

option Albert Einstein’s

Alleged Definition of Insanity “Doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a

different result ”

I encourage sanity in Idaho higher education public policy

the advent of a new millennium in idaho higher education.presentation to: joint finance...

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