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Charlemagne The accidental president JeanClaude Juncker will be the next commission boss, even though nobody wants him Jun 28th 2014 | From the print edition IN THE caricature of the British press, Jean Claude Juncker is a dangerous, drunk, anti British, European archfederalist, whose father was conscripted into the Wehrmacht. As European Union leaders prepare to choose Mr Juncker as the next president of the European Commission, blocking Mr Juncker has become a vital national interest for Britain’s David Cameron. The entry of such a man to the Berlaymont, Mr Cameron warns, could hasten Britain’s exit from the EU. In the flesh, however, Mr Juncker is rather hard to dislike. At a time when politicians are bland, Luxembourg’s former prime minister is a dinosaur who loves to drink, smoke, gossip and joke. He can be disarmingly frank, such as when admitting he had to lie to save the euro. It is the nature of the commission to pursue integration. And Mr Juncker’s runins with Tony Blair should be kept in perspective: his bad relations with Nicolas Sarkozy scarcely make him anti French. Mr Juncker’s faults are of a different, less sensational variety. First, for all his experience, the 59yearold is past his prime and offers little new to regain voters’ trust after the rise of antiEU parties in May’s elections. He lacks the administrative skill to reform an unwieldy bureaucracy. Yet it would not be the first time that the EU has opted for unthreatening mediocrity: two previous Luxembourgers, Gaston Thorn and Jacques Santer, spring to mind. The second, deeper problem is that Mr Juncker has been chosen by an indirect system known as Spitzenkandidaten, or “lead candidates”, which sets a bad precedent. Instead of being picked by a consensus of European leaders, the commission president has emerged via a promise from the main panEuropean political parties that the candidate from the largest group would run

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A short story about Juncker and his surprising, against all odds, becoming the president of European Commission.

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  • 6/14/2015 Theaccidentalpresident|TheEconomist

    http://www.economist.com/node/21605960/print 1/3

    Charlemagne

    TheaccidentalpresidentJeanClaudeJunckerwillbethenextcommissionboss,eventhoughnobodywantshim

    Jun28th2014| Fromtheprintedition

    INTHEcaricatureoftheBritishpress,JeanClaudeJunckerisadangerous,drunk,antiBritish,Europeanarchfederalist,whosefatherwasconscriptedintotheWehrmacht.AsEuropeanUnionleaderspreparetochooseMrJunckerasthenextpresidentoftheEuropeanCommission,blockingMrJunckerhasbecomeavitalnationalinterestforBritainsDavidCameron.TheentryofsuchamantotheBerlaymont,MrCameronwarns,couldhastenBritainsexitfromtheEU.

    Intheflesh,however,MrJunckerisratherhardtodislike.Atatimewhenpoliticiansarebland,Luxembourgsformerprimeministerisadinosaurwholovestodrink,smoke,gossipandjoke.Hecanbedisarminglyfrank,suchaswhenadmittinghehadtolietosavetheeuro.Itisthenatureofthecommissiontopursueintegration.AndMrJunckersruninswithTonyBlairshouldbekeptinperspective:hisbadrelationswithNicolasSarkozyscarcelymakehimantiFrench.

    MrJunckersfaultsareofadifferent,lesssensationalvariety.First,forallhisexperience,the59yearoldispasthisprimeandofferslittlenewtoregainvoterstrustaftertheriseofantiEUpartiesinMayselections.Helackstheadministrativeskilltoreformanunwieldybureaucracy.YetitwouldnotbethefirsttimethattheEUhasoptedforunthreateningmediocrity:twopreviousLuxembourgers,GastonThornandJacquesSanter,springtomind.

    Thesecond,deeperproblemisthatMrJunckerhasbeenchosenbyanindirectsystemknownasSpitzenkandidaten,orleadcandidates,whichsetsabadprecedent.InsteadofbeingpickedbyaconsensusofEuropeanleaders,thecommissionpresidenthasemergedviaapromisefromthemainpanEuropeanpoliticalpartiesthatthecandidatefromthelargestgroupwouldrun

  • 6/14/2015 Theaccidentalpresident|TheEconomist

    http://www.economist.com/node/21605960/print 2/3

    thecommission.MrJunckerwasthechoiceofthecentrerightEuropeanPeoplesParty(EPP),whichcametopinMay.Thechangeshiftspowerfromelectedgovernmentstotheparliament,andendangersthecommissionsmanyfunctionsrequiringimpartiality,includingcompetitionpolicy.

    Thesonofasteelworker,MrJunckerenteredLuxembourgpoliticssoonaftergraduatinginlawfromtheUniversityofStrasbourg.OnthesocialwingoftheChristianDemocrats,hewaselectedtothechamberofdeputiesin1984,immediatelybecamelabourministerandthenfinanceministerin1989.Hebecameprimeministerin1995,succeedingMrSanter.MrJunckerwillbethethirdcommissionpresidentfromLuxembourg,agrandduchyofjusthalfamillionsoulsthatenjoystheEUshighestlivingstandards,thankstothebountyoffinancialservices.Suchprominenceisinpartduetothefactthat,squeezedbetweenFranceandGermany,Luxembourgactsasabridgebetweenthetwo.

    MrJunckerslifehasbeenboundupwiththeeuro.HenegotiatedtheMaastrichttreaty,served18yearsasprimeministerandwaspresidentoftheeurogroupoffinanceministers.(Hiswasasupportingrole:phonerecordsshowthatduringtheeurocrisistheAmericantreasurysecretary,TimGeithner,spoketohimjusttwice,comparedwith58callstotheEuropeanCentralBankpresidentand36totheGermanfinanceminister.)InJanuary2013hiscolleagueshadhadenoughofhisramblinglatenightmeetingslubricatedwithcognacandreplacedhimwithaDutchman,JeroenDijsselbloem.InLuxembourgaspyscandalcametoaheadinJuly2013,forcingMrJunckertoresign.HisChristianDemocratswerestillthebiggestpartyafterOctoberselection,buthiscoalitionpartnersswitchedsidestobacktheLiberalsXavierBettel.

    MrJunckerthusunexpectedlybecameavailableasaSpitzenkandidatjustasAngelaMerkel,theGermanchancellor,grudginglyacceptedtheidea.ShesupportedhimastheEPPnomineemainlybecause,asarecognisablenameandafluentGermanspeaker,hecouldcrossswordswithMartinSchulz,theGermanpresidentoftheEuropeanParliamentwhowasleadcandidateforthecentreleft.ButwhentheEPPwon,MrsMerkelfoundthatshecouldnotturnherbackonMrJunckerwithoutbeingaccusedofbetrayingthepromiseofmoredemocracy.

    SuicideinFlandersfield

    TheSpitzenkandidatensystemhasnowacquiredaforcethatnobodyexceptforMrCamerondareschallenge.AtasummitonJune26th27th,startingwithadinnerinthetownofYpres,sceneofcarnageinthefirstworldwar,hewillstagealastdesperatechargeagainstMrJuncker.Hewillbealmostalone.Cowardice,theprimeministerwillshoutsuicide,therestwillrespond.

    MrCameronmaywellbefightingtherightbattle,butwiththewrongtactics.HerespondedlatetothethreatofSpitzenkandidatenhemisreadthepoliticalconstraintsonMrsMerkel(again

  • 6/14/2015 Theaccidentalpresident|TheEconomist

    http://www.economist.com/node/21605960/print 3/3

    payingapriceforpullinghisConservativesoutoftheEPP)andheallowedaquestionofprincipletobecomeapersonalattack.

    MrJunckerwillbecomeanaccidentalpresidentbecauseheismostpeoplessecondchoice.HehimselfhopedtobepresidentoftheEuropeanCouncil,representingleaders,wherehecouldhavebeenagoodbackroomdealmaker.ForMrsMerkelheisbetterthanMrSchulz.ForMrSchulz,backingMrJunckeristhepriceforincreasingthepoweroftheparliament(wherehewillremainpresident).ForFranceandItaly,MrJunckerismorelikelytosoftenausteritythanotherconservatives.Forothers,supportforMrJunckercanbetradedforplumjobsandotherconcessions.SadlyforBritain,evenitsclosestEuropeanfriendsthinkthatbackingMrJunckerisbetterthansidingwithMrCameron.

    Theoddthingisthat,oftheavailableSpitzenkandidaten,MrJunckerisprobablytheleastbadchoice.HeisneitheranultrafederalistlikeGuyVerhofstadt,theliberalsman,noracreatureoftheparliamentlikeMrSchulz.OneofhismaincampaignpledgeswastoseekafairdealintherenegotiationofBritainsEUmembership.Letssee.

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