the 500% gold investment

BY NICK GIAMBRUNO, CHIEF ANALYST, THE CASEY REPORT

The 500% Gold Investment

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THE 500% GOLD INVESTMENTThe Casey Report

Dear Investor,

The US is on an unsettling path toward more socialism.

Polls suggest that most millennials (born 1982-2004) now favor socialism. And a growing number favor outright communism – if it’s implemented “correctly,” of course.

At some point this year, millennials are expected to surpass baby boomers as the nation’s largest adult generation. This is one of the reasons Bernie Sanders and other socialists like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are growing in popularity.

It also means unsettling times lie ahead.

In this special report, I’ll explain what’s driving this unstoppable trend toward greater socialism. I’ll also show you how to grow and protect your wealth in this environment.

Inside, you’ll find two investment recommendations set to benefit from these dangerous social trends.

Regards,

Nick Giambruno Chief Analyst, The Casey Report

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LIST OF INVESTMENTSInvestment No. 1 ...........................................................Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)

Buy Wheaton Precious Metals up to $50 per share.

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THE GREAT DIVIDE AND THE PERMANENT UNDERCLASSFight for $15!

This was the rallying cry of what eventually became the largest fast-food strike in US history.

It all started in late 2012, when over 100 New York City fast-food workers walked off their jobs, demanding higher wages.

Many made minimum wage. They were struggling to make ends meet as rent, utilities, medical care, and the overall cost of living continued to rise much faster than their wages.

The “fight for $15” movement quickly spread across the country.

Its supporters leaned on a common language. They claimed employers paying less than $15 per hour were “robbing employees on the job.”

This language reveals a troubling mindset. And it’s on the rise.

These people see themselves as great crusaders against a perceived injustice. They want the State to coerce employers into giving them something they feel they have “a right” to.

I think the fight for $15 movement is a troubling sign of where the US political climate is headed. And it has serious investment implications.

The truth is, the fight for $15 movement is only a small, visible symptom of a chronic disease. It also foreshadows a much larger problem.

Right now, the skyrocketing cost of living many Americans face is fueling a powerful, socio-political trend. At this point, it’s practically unstoppable.

As you’ll read in the pages ahead, the factors that have led to Americans’ higher living costs are not going away. In fact, they will continue to make the situation much worse.

This will have tremendous financial and social consequences. In this report, I’ll show you how to protect and grow your wealth in this dangerous climate.

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Protestors Demand a $15 Minimum Wage

MINIMUM WAGE, MAXIMUM STUPIDITYThe economic stupidity of minimum wage laws should be easy to grasp. But, as H.L. Mencken once noted, “Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.”

In short, minimum wage laws are really a prohibition on voluntary employment. Employees sell labor. Employers buy it.

And, in a free market, the price of labor would be the wage on which they voluntarily agree. The price of labor is governed by the laws of supply and demand, just like any scarce factor of production.

If a business pays more than the market price of labor—or any expense—it becomes uncompetitive. If it pays less than the market price, the employee leaves to find work elsewhere.

But the US labor market is not a free market. Minimum wage laws are the chief reason why.

These laws are really a form of price control. In this case, a control on the price of labor. And price controls always create destructive distortions in the market. Here, that means unnecessary unemployment, and artificially high prices passed on to consumers.

Even the Congressional Budget Office admits that 500,000 jobs would be lost if the US government raised the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10.

How many hundreds of thousands of jobs (or more) will be lost when the fight for $15 movement eventually succeeds is anyone’s guess.

THE TROUBLE WITH A $5 COKEMinimum wage laws are no different than government-mandated prices on other input costs.

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Take aluminum cans, for example. Suppose the government set the price of an aluminum can at $5… far above its market price.

Coca-Cola would have to pass along that artificially high cost to its consumers to stay in business. But how many people would spend over $5 for a can of Coke?

Few people would buy something so artificially expensive. That’s particularly true when there’s a ready alternative—like glass or plastic bottles—which Coca-Cola could sell at market prices.

The end result would be a glut of $5 Coke cans sitting on store shelves because nobody would buy them.

In this scenario, the problem isn’t that people don’t want Coke. They do. The problem is the artificially high price of aluminum cans… which leads to the artificially high price of Coke… that just sits on shelves, gathering dust, until eventually, Coca-Cola drastically cuts back production because of lack of demand.

A similar dynamic plays out when the government mandates the price of labor. But instead of Coke cans, potential employees sit on the shelves while employers eliminate jobs they otherwise wouldn’t, and are forced to pass on higher prices to consumers when they otherwise wouldn’t.

The plain truth is, not every job generates $15 an hour worth of output. In these instances, the market value of labor is less than $15 an hour.

Some workers would much rather accept jobs that pay less than $15 than have no job at all. But federal, state and local governments prohibit this voluntary arrangement to varying degrees with minimum wage laws.

So, employers don’t hire them. After all, they’re no more likely to overpay for labor than you are to pay $5 for a can of Coke. And workers remain needlessly unemployed.

This is how minimum wage laws hurt the low-skilled people they are ostensibly designed to help.

It also leaves companies with no choice but to raise prices, hire fewer people for fewer hours of work, or find alternatives. Increasingly, that means machine automation.

Take McDonald’s, the quintessential employer of low-skilled workers, for example. The company is implementing mobile ordering and digital kiosks to automate the ordering process. It’s on pace to replace human cashiers in 5,500 restaurants in the coming years, according to a recent study.

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McDonald’s Self-Service Kiosks

As the government forces companies to pay an increasingly higher price for labor, more will look to machines to stay competitive.

Perverse as it may be, this is the inevitable result of the higher minimum wage laws that “fight for $15” is pushing for. Yet the movement is growing…

The Service Employees International Union (SEIU), which represents nearly two million workers in the United States and Canada, now supports it. So do an increasing number of politicians, including perennial presidential candidate Bernie Sanders.

“FIGHT FOR $15” IS JUST THE TIP OF THE ICEBERGAs I mentioned earlier, “fight for $15” is only one symptom of a much larger epidemic. It points to an increasingly radical political environment that will have serious financial consequences.

In many ways, the next generation controls our future. And that means unsettling times lie ahead.

Polls suggest that a majority of millennials (people born 1982-2004) now favor socialism. And a growing number favor outright communism – if it’s implemented “correctly.”

Of course, only one-third of these millennials can accurately define socialism. This speaks to the point Doug Casey makes below… that people act on emotion.

This year, millennials are expected to surpass baby boomers as the nation’s largest living adult generation. This is one of the reasons Bernie Sanders and other socialists like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – whom the Chair of the Democratic Party called “the future of our party” – are growing in popularity.

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Doug Casey: This nonsense is happening because people don't think, they feel. They conflate and confuse their feelings with thoughts. Socialism is a very easy sell because, from a feeling point of view, it’s all rainbows and unicorns. Every fool wants “free” food, “free” housing, “free” medical care, and free indoctrination that passes as education. Capitalism is sold as cutthroat; socialism is sold as kind and gentle. These people make socialism seem like living in a cornucopia, whereas capitalism is a very hard sell. It's an intellectual sell. It requires an understanding of things like ethics, economics, and history. But people don't think, they feel. So we're likely fated to be losers in this.

I mean they don't even watch the news about what's happening in Venezuela, or Zimbabwe before that, or the Soviet Bloc before that, or China before that.

I don't know what's to be done about it. I don’t believe this trend can be reversed until we have a genuine crisis. Unfortunately, things usually get worse, not better, during a crisis. And a real crisis is coming to the US.

We’re almost there. It’s approaching the stage of France before 1789. I would’ve been enthusiastic about getting rid of Louis XVI. But then it got worse after the revolution; they got Robespierre, and then Napoleon. The same thing happened in Russia. I would’ve supported the overthrow of Nicholas II. But the revolution made things worse. First came Lenin, and it got even worse with Stalin.

I’m afraid when the crisis hits, Americans will go for a domestic version of Robespierre or Lenin to solve it.

Bernie and his fellow socialists are not offering anything new. It’s just a heavier dose of the same bad medicine economic witch doctors have been prescribing for years.

One of their latest gimmicks, however, is beyond absurd. It’s verifiably insane. And the scariest part is, it’s gaining ground… spreading across the world like smallpox.

This dangerous gimmick is something called a “universal basic income,” or UBI for short.

It’s where the government gives you money, just because. There’s no requirement to work, or even display a willingness to work. You could sit at home all day, watch TV, and still get a check from the government.

Remember, even people living under communist regimes have to work. But with universal basic income, the government simply hands out “free” money to everyone for doing absolutely nothing.

Let that sink in for a minute.

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I think universal basic income will become a pressing political issue in the near future. It’s becoming more popular in so-called academia. The political elite and Silicon Valley bigwigs are also embracing it.

Bernie Sanders and a number of prominent democrats support UBI. Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, a possible future presidential candidate, is also a vocal advocate.

I expect more and more misguided Americans to accept UBI as status-quo politicians, economists, and media talking heads support it… and as inflation pushes up the cost of living and more people feel the pinch.

The idea will be politically popular. Who would protest free money?

If the US adopts UBI, it would be next to impossible to get rid of. Who would vote for a politician that stops the gravy train? Or even one that slows it down?

The problem is, nothing in life is free. Expect more money printing to pay for these policies. That, in turn, will create more inflation.

The Opportunity

In the pages ahead, I’ll explain how America’s embrace of socialism will lead to more inflation – and what you can do about it.

I’ll also introduce two investment recommendations. Both are set to benefit from increased inflation.

THE NATURAL END GAME OF DEMOCRACY We have to ask ourselves whether the political situation in the US will improve. Unfortunately, the data logically points to a troubling, but inevitable, conclusion.

The reason is simple: a growing majority of US voters are addicted to the heroin of government welfare.

An estimated 47% or so of Americans already receive some form of government benefit. But I don’t think that accurately reflects the situation. At least, not when you consider all the government employees, along with those in the nominally private sector who feed off the warfare state. This includes defense and other government contractors who win huge, no-bid contracts.

People involved in the military-industrial complex live off government slops as much or more than those who collect food stamps and other traditional forms of welfare. Yet they aren’t counted in the statistics.

Any honest account of who depends on the government needs to include them.

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We need to count anyone who lives off of political dollars.

That puts us well north of 50% of the US population. It’s a solid and growing majority. And that’s without UBI, which would bump the figure all the way up to 100%.

In other words, the US has already crossed the Rubicon. There’s no going back.

The growing majority of people who depend on the government guarantee that these policies will continue and (likely) accelerate. It’s why Bernie Sanders and other socialists are growing in popularity.

I think this trend is unstoppable. There’s no way a meaningful number of these people would ever vote to stop their government benefits. No one voluntarily breaks his own rice bowl.

The notion that a significant number of people living off of government largesse will come around to a libertarian way of thinking is a pipe dream. You’d have better luck converting them to the Jehovah’s Witnesses.

Heck, even the Libertarian Party—with disgraceful candidates like Bob Barr, Gary Johnson, and Bill Weld—has become a crude parody of a real libertarian, free market, voluntaryist philosophy.

There is simply no hope for positive change from the political system. That means one thing is certain: an ever-increasing amount of money printing to pay for all these government programs.

Doug Casey: “Cultural Americans” know that their culture is dying, and their standard of living is declining. They sensed—correctly—that Trump would be their desperate “last hurrah”, their last real kick at the cat. Trump is likely their last President. If current trends continue, in 50 years the US will resemble the Congo, or Bangladesh, or El Salvador more than it resembles America.

This sad situation is the inevitable end game of democracy.

The American media and public school system force-feed people the myth that democracy is the most sublime form of government. The reality, however, is quite different.

This is especially true when a society loses respect for the rights of individuals. Then it only takes 51% of the people to restrict the rights of the other 49%.

You end up with a tyranny of the majority. It’s group-led despotism. Really, nothing more than mob rule dressed up in a suit and tie.

The mob can force you to buy health insurance… or tax your income at outrageously high rates… or vote in politicians to institute a UBI (paid for by the Fed’s printing press).

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It brings to mind the words of H.L. Mencken: “Democracy, too, is a religion. It is the worship of jackals by jackasses.”

Doug Casey: Most of the founders of America were more concerned with liberty than democracy. Tocqueville saw democracy and liberty as almost polar opposites.

Democracy can work when everyone concerned knows one another, shares the same values and goals, and abhors any form of coercion. It is the natural way of accomplishing things among small groups.

But once belief in democracy becomes a political ideology, it’s necessarily transformed into majority rule. And, at that point, the majority (or even a plurality, a minority, or an individual) can enforce their will on everyone else by claiming to represent the will of the people. It’s like two wolves and a sheep voting about what to eat for dinner. It’s no way for a civilized society to be run.

This isn’t the place to go into all the problems with democracy, and what would be a better alternative. But democracy has become a secular religion. Heresy against it might cause one to be burned at the stake…

INFLATION DESTROYS CIVILIZATION

There are many factors driving the unstoppable trend towards more socialism in the US. But the primary driver is inflation.

Americans feel squeezed because the cost of rent, medical insurance, and tuition, as well as other basic costs of living expenses, are rising far faster than their wages.

This creates very real pain and problems. In response, more and more people turn to Santa Claus politicians that promise supposed freebies, like a $15 minimum wage or universal basic income.

This is a predictable consequence of the US abandoning sound money.

By every measure—including stagnating wages and rising costs—things have been going downhill for the American middle class since the early 1970s.

August 15, 1971, to be exact. This is the date President Nixon killed the last remnants of the gold standard.

Since then, the dollar has been a pure fiat currency. This allows the Fed to print as many dollars as it pleases. And – without the discipline imposed by some form of a gold standard – it does precisely that.

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The rejection of sound money is the primary reason inflation has eaten up wage growth since the early 1970s—and the primary reason the cost of living has exploded.

The next chart illustrates this dynamic. It measures US hourly wages priced in gold grams (the number of gold grams the average person’s hourly income could buy).

Measured in gold—instead of dollars—wages in the US have fallen 84% since 1971.

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That’s an astounding drop.

The next chart measures the federal minimum wage in terms of gold grams. Priced in gold, the minimum wage has fallen 90% since 1968.

It’s worth noting that the federal minimum wage was $1.60 in 1968. It’s $7.25 today, or 353% higher in dollar terms.

But that $7.25 buys 90% less than $1.60 did back in 1968. That’s the story you won’t hear from the mainstream press.

This is why millennials and millions of others are gravitating toward socialism and foolish projects like “fight for $15.”

They feel the economic pain of inflation every day. They know it’s becoming harder and harder to maintain a middle-class lifestyle.

They just don’t understand why. So, they succumb to the siren’s call of freebies.

Perverse as it is, the policies demanded by people suffering from inflation create even more inflation.

Inflation has a way of perpetuating itself. The more inflation reduces living standards, the more people push for programs that create even more inflation. This includes things like universal basic income and raising the minimum wage… which in turn creates a cycle of inflation.

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It’s only a matter of time before “fight for $15” becomes “fight for $20.” Then it’s “fight for $50,” “fight for $100,” and so forth.

What people should really fight for is a return to sound money. It’s the only way to end this insidious cycle. But that’s not going to happen.

Inflation follows a clear a pattern of corruption:

1. In a fiat currency system, the government will invariably print an ever-increasing amount of currency.

2. This makes prices and the cost of living rise faster than wages.

3. The average person feels the pain but doesn’t understand what’s happening.

4. More people support politicians who promise freebies.

5. In order to pay for the “freebies,” the government prints more money.

6. This creates even more inflation, and the cycle repeats.

Inflation Is Civilization’s Death Spiral

Government Prints Currency

PeopleFeel Pinched

PricesRise

Support for Socialist Policies

HOW TO PROTECT YOUR WEALTHUnfortunately, most people have no idea how bad things can get when socialist government policies spin completely out of control, let alone how to prepare…

Owning some physical gold is step one. This is something everyone should do.

Gold is the ultimate form of wealth insurance. It’s preserved wealth through every kind of crisis imaginable. It will preserve wealth during the next crisis, too.

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The price of gold tends to be inversely related to the value of the dollar, as you’ll notice in the next chart.

I expect the price of gold to soar in the years ahead as the political inflation cycle plays out.

Owning physical gold is an important first step toward protecting your savings from the destructive politics that are coming. But you’ll also want leveraged upside to grow your wealth. For that, we’re turning to companies that produce precious metals.

I’ll tell you about one of the best right now...

INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION – WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS (WPM)Back in 2005, gold and silver stocks were on an absolute tear.

A little-known stock called Silver Wheaton—now Wheaton Precious Metals—was one of the biggest success stories to come out of this fantastic bull market.

When Wheaton Precious Metals was founded in 2004, it was worth just $50 million.

A few years later, it was worth billions.

What’s even more impressive is that Wheaton Precious Metals never pulled a single ounce of silver out of the ground.

You see, Wheaton is a “mining company” that doesn’t mine. Really, it isn’t a mining company at all. It’s a streaming company.

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Here’s how the business works… Wheaton Precious Metals bankrolls traditional mining companies. Then, those companies develop mining projects with Wheaton’s cash. In exchange, Wheaton gets the right to purchase part of the mine’s output at a low, fixed price.

It’s an innovative and extremely lucrative business model.

Wheaton Precious Metals doesn’t do the hard work of operating the mine. It’s not responsible for any of its costs or liabilities. And an increase in operating costs doesn’t affect its bottom line.

Instead, it collects a “stream”—or royalty—of the mine’s silver and/or gold production at a fixed, low price, which it can sell for a profit.

Wheaton Precious Metals has a portfolio of these streaming agreements with various miners. This minimizes the company’s risk, while allowing it to capture the upside of rising precious metal prices.

It’s a low-risk, high-reward arrangement.

It’s also one of the best business models you can buy as an investor.

Doug Casey was one of the first to figure that out. In fact, Doug was one of Silver Wheaton’s earliest investors. He invested in the startup after Ian Telfer—the company’s founder and a legend in the metals market—called him up and pitched him the company.

Doug’s readers made a fortune off Silver Wheaton, too. When he recommended the stock in February 2005, his thesis was simple: Silver Wheaton was going to “become the next ‘go-to’ vehicle for silver.”

Here’s what Doug wrote in 2005:

Although it is still in its early days, Silver Wheaton has all the ingredients of a winner and will be a must-own company for institutional investors looking to ride the silver wave…

I have no doubt there will be times that the price of Silver Wheaton shares will hit the moon.

Doug was spot-on. It soared more than 500% in under three years.

Less than a year later, lightning struck again. This time, Silver Wheaton surged from under $5 to more than $45 in just over two years. Today, I think we have another solid chance of realizing huge returns from Wheaton Precious Metals.

THE BEST WAY TO MAKE MONEY IN MININGStreaming companies are the safest way to be in the mining business. That’s because they don’t have the expensive headaches that come from actually mining.

They don’t have to worry about flat tires on haul trucks, negotiating with union employees, or dealing with overzealous environmentalists.

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Remember, Wheaton Precious Metals doesn’t own, operate, or explore for any gold or silver. So it’s largely insulated from the risks of operating mines.

This doesn’t completely shield it from fluctuations in the gold and silver markets, but it does help. It also means the company can load up on quality assets at bargain prices as more mining companies find themselves in need of cash during the ongoing slump in metals prices.

This is why the “mining without mining” business is so profitable. And despite some competition, Wheaton is the world’s largest player in the space.

Like other commodity markets, the gold and silver markets are highly cyclical. They go through regular booms and busts.

When precious metals boom again and new investors look to cash in, many will turn to the biggest, safest, and most profitable precious metals company they can find. That means Wheaton Precious Metals.

Wheaton has the largest attributable silver mine reserves in the industry. It has 545.4 million ounces of silver and 11.4 million ounces of gold in reserves. And it expects to produce between 22-23.5 million silver ounces and between 685,000 and 725,000 gold ounces in 2020.

All of this production is coming from 20 different mines and nine development projects in a dozen countries around the world. This helps diversify the company’s political risk.

Even so, about half of the production happens in relatively safe jurisdictions in the Americas.

Now, I’ve already told you that the streaming model is one of the best business models in the world. But it comes with another big plus, especially for a company like Wheaton.

When analysts calculate the value of a mining stock, they often base it on the company’s mining reserves or estimated production. But these models overlook one of the most important elements of a streaming company, something known as “optionality.”

When companies like Wheaton negotiate streaming deals, they often include land surrounding the main asset or mine. So as producers continue to dig around on their properties, any additional silver and gold they find is automatically added to the streaming company’s account. But it doesn’t have to pay a penny more for it.

This means streaming companies often have more growth potential than traditional valuation metrics show.

There’s no way to know how much additional gold and silver Wheaton’s streaming partners will find. But there’s almost certainly more than they currently know about – likely, a lot more.

All of this free upside will continue to grow the company.

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WHY WE LIKE WHEATON PRECIOUS METALSWheaton is the go-to precious metals streaming company for a few key reasons:

• Fixed, low costs. Virtually all of Wheaton’s costs are determined in advance. So it can survive and thrive in volatile environments that drive other companies out of business.

• Staying power. Wheaton’s reserves exceed 1.3 billion silver-equivalent ounces. That’s more than even larger precious metals companies like Pan American Silver and Coeur Mining.

• No exploration costs or risks. Wheaton doesn’t do the hard work of exploring. But its streaming agreements let it enjoy a great deal of the upside of successful exploration.

• Pays dividends. Most precious metals miners don’t pay dividends, even when they are making money.

A LOOK INSIDE THE COMPANY Wheaton Precious Metals packs a lot of value…

• It reported earnings of $95 million in Q1 2020. Attributable production of gold and silver was higher than expected at 94,707 ounces and 6.7 million ounces, respectively. This reflects well on the company’s operations.

• The company has maintained a healthy gross margin of 74%.

• For Wheaton, gold continues to make up about half of its average production. This is good news. Higher leverage to the price of gold will continue to boost its revenue and cash flows. This bodes well for stronger shareholder returns.

• As of March 2020, the company had roughly $593 million of net debt. It also has about $1.3 billion undrawn on its revolving term loan.

Wheaton maintains an excellent EBITDA margin of almost 69%. It also has the lowest EBITDA and free cash flow multiples and the highest dividend yield in its peer group.

Another way to look at Wheaton’s valuation is to compare its reserves to its market capitalization.

The net value of Wheaton’s gold and silver reserves is about $87 billion. Meanwhile, it has a market cap of $19 billion. So the value of Wheaton’s reserves is 4.5 times its market cap. This is a positive sign.

What’s even more important, though, is that the company’s business model and operational quality have been tested over and over again, in both good and bad times.

The additional streams Wheaton has added have set the stage for more growth. And that’s exactly what we expect in 2020.

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SHARE PRICE Despite having not dodged the coronavirus-induced sell-off in the broader market earlier this year, Wheaton’s shares are up 43% in 2020.

That said, I expect the company’s share price to rise significantly higher as inflation ticks up and precious metals boom.

RISKSFalling gold and silver prices are the main risk to Wheaton Precious Metals. But with so much fear in the markets and worldwide money-printing running rampant, I don't expect precious metals prices to fall substantially lower from here. On the contrary, a rise is far more likely. However, if they do, Wheaton has managed difficult market conditions in the past. It should be able to again if necessary.

Aside from that, no “mining” company can have a portfolio this large without some political risk. But Wheaton’s political risk is diversified through its wide portfolio of streaming agreements.

Even if one stream implodes, it wouldn’t be a fatal blow to Wheaton. And with most of its projects in relatively stable countries, I think its overall political risk is relatively low.

The Wheaton Precious Metals team has demonstrated excellence in everything that matters. They know how to pick the right projects, control costs, and deliver value to shareholders. I expect more of the same ahead.

It’s hard to think of a precious metals investment with less risk and more upside.

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THE TRADEWheaton Precious Metals is a low-risk, high-reward way to profit from higher precious metals prices.

Buy Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) up to $50 per share.

Plan on holding shares for at least a year or longer as the political trends that guarantee inflation play out.

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