the 3 april 2012 tornado outbreak: an analysis of the north texas integrated warning team
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The 3 April 2012 Tornado Outbreak: An Analysis of the North Texas Integrated Warning Team. Mark Fox Warning & Coordination Meteorologist NWS Fort Worth / Dallas. Lancaster, TX tornado. Credit: Dallas Morning News. Outline. Public Response April 3 Overview Timeline Findings. Dallas. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The 3 April 2012 Tornado Outbreak:
An Analysis of the North Texas Integrated Warning Team
Mark FoxWarning & Coordination Meteorologist
NWS Fort Worth / Dallas
Lancaster, TX tornado. Credit: Dallas Morning News.
Outline• Public Response
• April 3 Overview
• Timeline
• Findings
Joshua
Fort WorthArlington
DallasForney
20 Tornadoes1 EF – 32 EF – 2 0 Fatalities29 injuries$ 800 Million in Damages
Why?
• 4 significant tornadoes in a highly populated area • The Integrated Warning Team Saved Lives • Use this as an opportunity to find why and how
• No Deaths!!!!!• No Assessment
Wish it was…
Warning Issued
Warning Received
Action Taken
• Just under half (47%) would take cover immediately
• Around 1 in 4 people require confirmation
More Like…
Public Response• 115 people across Dallas/Fort Worth
Metroplex surveyed– 79 recalled events of 3 April 2012
• Random digit dial method– 50% land line numbers, 50% cell phone
Land Line CellPhone
20%
80%
Landline vs. Cell Phone
Nothing Seek or Distribute Information Prepare Shelter
27.00%
48.60%
21.60%
2.70%
10.20%
40.80%
8.20%
40.80%
Actions Following Product Issuance Watch Warning
Event Summary
City center of LancasterDense residential and commercial
Open farmlandfew homesI-35E
High Traffic area.I-45 and I-20intersection
Kennedale & Arlington Dense residential area. US. 287 & I-20
Open farmland quickly gives way to residential
Subdivision quickly gives way to farmland
City center of Forney
12:30PMCDT
1:30PMCDT
2:30PMCDT
3:30PMCDT
4:30PMCDT
Tornado Warning: Johnson County (Joshua)
12:45 PM
Tornado Emergency: Dallas County (Lancaster)
1:17 PM
Tornado Emergency: Dallas County (Lancaster)
1:26 PM
Tornado Emergency:Tarrant County (Arlington/Pantego)
1:26 PM
Tornado Emergency: Dallas County (Lancaster)
1:34 PM
Tornado Emergency: Dallas County (Lancaster)
1:34 PM
Tornado Emergency: Dallas County (Mesquite/Garland)
2:02 PM
Tornado Emergency: Hunt County (Greenville)
4:27 PM
Live footage of tractor trailers being damaged
1:33 PM
Photo: WFAA-TV
Tractor trailer footage replayed2:29 PM
Tractor trailer footage replayed3:02 PM
Photo: Dallas Examiner
Spotters report increasing west of Forney Tornado Warning:
Kaufman County (Forney)3:25 PM
Broadcast media relays reports of increasing tornado threat for
Kaufman County (Forney)3:27 PM
Tornado confirmed in Forney (Kaufman County)
3:33 PM
Tornado Emergency – IWT Communications
• Storm spotters and media coverage drive the decision to issue a tornado emergency by the NWS
• Tornado Emergency language used to raise awareness of the threat of a large, damaging tornado in a populated area
• The use of “tornado emergency in text products is difficult to notice, chatting about it elicited a much faster response from local area media
• Emergency were largely unaffected by “tornado emergency” language
• Most important outcome: Everyone was delivering the same message at the same time… “this is a significant threat, and you need to take action now”
Time Action Station 1 Station 2 Station 3 Station 4 Average
1:16 PM Tornado Emergency Issued – Dallas 5 -2 4 4 2.7
1:20 PM Chat about Tornado Emergency – Dallas 1 0 0 0 Immediate
1:25 PM Chat about Tornado Emergency about to be issued - Tarrant 1 0 0 0 Immediate
1:26 PM Tornado Emergency Issued – Tarrant 0 -1 -1 -1 Immediate
1:26 PM Tornado Emergency Issued – Dallas Never Never Never Never Never*
1:33 PM Tornado Emergency SVS – Tarrant 5 3 Never 2 2.5**
1:34 PM Tornado Emergency SVS – Dallas Never Never Never Never Never*
1:35 PM Chat about Tornado Emergency – Tarrant 1 Never 2 N/A 1.5***
2:02 PM Chat about new Tornado Emergency – Dallas 7 9 Never N/A 8***
2:02 PM Tornado Emergency Issued – Dallas 7 9 Never N/A 8***
3:38 PM Chat about a Tornado Confirmed in Forney (no emergency) 0 1 1 1 1
4:26 PM Chat about new Tornado Emergency – Hunt 0 1 1 1 1
4:27 PM Tornado Emergency Issued – Hunt 0 0 0 0 Immediate
Search and Rescue<nws-jason.dunn> with new line of storms moving into western Tarrant County, there will be a threat of frequent lightning and gusty winds. This may hamper search and rescue efforts in Tarrant County
Station 3 coverage: The squall line will hamper search and rescue efforts
Station 3 coverage: NWS concerned about storms impacting search and rescue operations
2:00 PM
2:03 PM
2:17 PM
3:29 PMStation 1 coverage: Possible tornado in Arlington… may impact damage efforts
2:46 PM
Station 3 coverage: NWS states approaching line of storms will complicate search and rescue efforts
Photo: Tony Gutierrez, Associated Press
Forney Damage Reports3:38 PM
3:39 PM
3:40 PM
3:41 PM
3:42 PM
3:43 PM
3:44 PM
3:45 PM
3:46 PM
3:47 PM
3:48 PM
Forney Damage Reports3:38 PM
3:39 PM
3:40 PM
3:41 PM
3:42 PM
3:43 PM
3:44 PM
3:45 PM
3:46 PM
3:47 PM
3:48 PM
• FWD continues Tornado Warning for Dallas, Kaufman, Rockwall [TX] till 4:00 PM CDT
• Station 1 provides report of tornado in Forney• Station 2 concerned about a tornado in Forney • Station 3 identifies “debris cloud" seen on radar over Forney
• Spotter reports tornado went through center of Forney• Station 4: "I don't think we have a tornado on the ground (near
Forney), because we've had no confirmation in chat from the NWS at this time”
• Forney PD/FD: Officer advises that there is a tornado down town• <nws-nick.hampshire> Tornado reported in Forney!• <media-national1> What county is FORNEY in?• <nws-nick.hampshire> Kaufman
Forney Damage Reports3:38 PM
3:39 PM
3:40 PM
3:41 PM
3:42 PM
3:43 PM
3:44 PM
3:45 PM
3:46 PM
3:47 PM
3:48 PM
• Station 1 spotter shows video of "well-defined stovepipe tornado" in Forney • Says Forney High School has been hit• Meteorologist reports Forney is a tornado emergency
• Station 2 shows text on screen: “Tornado on ground in Forney”• Schools are in tornado’s path
• Station 3 reports tornado north of Forney doing damage• Station 4 asks for chat updates
• Meteorologist says NWS is becoming very concerned about a tornado in Forney
• Forney PD/FD: Officer advises that there is a lot of tree damage• Forney PD/FD: Tornado over Fire Station at Elm and 80
Forney Damage Reports3:38 PM
3:39 PM
3:40 PM
3:41 PM
3:42 PM
3:43 PM
3:44 PM
3:45 PM
3:46 PM
3:47 PM
3:48 PM
• Local Storm Report: Tornado on ground just west of Wal Mart in Forney
• Station 3 Coverage: Debris ball has gotten bigger; funnel getting larger- “fairly good size”
Forney Damage Reports3:38 PM
3:39 PM
3:40 PM
3:41 PM
3:42 PM
3:43 PM
3:44 PM
3:45 PM
3:46 PM
3:47 PM
3:48 PM
• NWS updates Rockwall EM on Forney tornado• Station 3 Coverage: Spotter confirms power flashes, tornado is still on
ground• Forney PD/FD: Officer advises Ridgecrest on the ground• <ham-spotter1> cone tor near forney stand by for more.. i have visual
Forney Damage Reports3:38 PM
3:39 PM
3:40 PM
3:41 PM
3:42 PM
3:43 PM
3:44 PM
3:45 PM
3:46 PM
3:47 PM
3:48 PM
• Station 1 spotter corrects himself, tornado "hasn't hit high school yet", but “is going to”
• Station 2 covers debris in the Forney area.• Station 4 reports of a confirmed tornado in Forney• <nwsbot> FWD: Unverified/Non-NWS Report -- Large cone tornado 5
to SW of Forney• Forney PD/FD: Tornado still in the Diamond Creek area
Forney Damage Reports3:38 PM
3:39 PM
3:40 PM
3:41 PM
3:42 PM
3:43 PM
3:44 PM
3:45 PM
3:46 PM
3:47 PM
3:48 PM
• FWD continues Tornado Warning for Kaufman, Rockwall [TX] till 4:00 PM CDT
• Forney PD/FD: County EMC notified of tornado down and damage• Station 1 reports Forney High School has not been hit, storm appears
to be moving farther north• Station 2 reports damage at Forney HS per spotter• Station 3 covers "tornado on the ground near Forney“• Station 4 spotter on FM 548 says he is viewing a tornado near Forney
High School• <media-Station1> Chaser on 548, tornado near Forney High School• <nws-nick.hampshire> Thanks Station 1• Forney PD/FD: Heading toward Crosby Elementary
Forney Damage Reports3:38 PM
3:39 PM
3:40 PM
3:41 PM
3:42 PM
3:43 PM
3:44 PM
3:45 PM
3:46 PM
3:47 PM
3:48 PM
• Station 3 Coverage: spotter reports tornado went through Diamond Creek subdivision; new wall cloud… storm may be cycling
• Forney PD/FD: Officer asks to call in everyone off duty• Forney PD/FD: Officer advises Major Damage
Forney Damage Reports3:38 PM
3:39 PM
3:40 PM
3:41 PM
3:42 PM
3:43 PM
3:44 PM
3:45 PM
3:46 PM
3:47 PM
3:48 PM
• Station 1 reports Crosby Elementary has been hit (Diamond Creek subdivision)
• Station 2 states damage is near FHS, but does not have confirmation• Station 3 spotter states tornado did roof damage to Crosby Elementary• <ham-Spotter1> TOR has lifted ATTM• <nws-nick.hampshire> Thanks• Forney PD/FD: Injured Baby • Forney PD/FD: Officer advises that N. Elm & Dalbac building & trees
across Elm and minor damage to house on Elm
Forney Damage Reports3:38 PM
3:39 PM
3:40 PM
3:41 PM
3:42 PM
3:43 PM
3:44 PM
3:45 PM
3:46 PM
3:47 PM
3:48 PM
• Station 3 spotter reports cars overturned at Crosby Elementary• <nws-nick.hampshire> Do we have confirmation the high school was
hit/• <nws-nick.hampshire> ?• Forney PD/FD: Terrell FD has been notified to respond on mutual aid• Forney PD/FD: Officer checking on Crosby Elementary• Forney PD/FD: Damage reports continue to come in and logged
Forney Damage Reports3:38 PM
3:39 PM
3:40 PM
3:41 PM
3:42 PM
3:43 PM
3:44 PM
3:45 PM
3:46 PM
3:47 PM
3:48 PM
• Station 2 talking about storm, mentions the storm that did hit Forney, and did hit FHS.
• Station 4 shows live spotter video of tornado damage in a subdivision in Forney
• <media-Station1> Storm Chaser reports Crosby Elementry in Forney hit
• <nws-nick.hampshire> Your spotter? any damage?
Forney Damage Reports3:38 PM
3:39 PM
3:40 PM
3:41 PM
3:42 PM
3:43 PM
3:44 PM
3:45 PM
3:46 PM
3:47 PM
3:48 PM
• Station 2 states off camera Crosby elementary school reportedly hit• Station 3 has no new reports from NWSChat (Station 3 believes NWS is
watching their coverage)… tornado actively moving northward• <media-national2> high school or elementary?• <nws-nick.hampshire> Going to extend the tornado warning from
Kaufamn/Rockwall into Collin/Hunt.• <media-Station1> Damage homes seen live on TV in Forney• <media-Station1> elementary
Information Needs - Media
• Have access to radar data and usually their own storm spotters (in DFW market)
• Rely on FREQUENT chat updates from the NWS regarding:o Warning decision updateso Spotter reports that come into NWSo Radar observations (what is the most dangerous storm or part of the
storm now)o Short term forecast updates (expected changes in storm behavior,
hazards• Why?
o Broadcast meteorologists are on the air constantly, they need the latest information to avoid repetition
o If the NWS can be relied upon to provide useful, frequent updates, it gives the NWS a chance to influence which storms are being covered by the media and when… consistency of message!
Information Needs – Emergency Managers
• Have access to radar data and usually their own storm spotters • Primarily concerned about IMPACTS of hazardous weather in their
individual jurisdiction• What is the worst case scenario?• If damage has occurred, could additional storms/weather hamper
response efforts?
Information Needs – NWS
• Have access to radar data and other real-time remote sensing technologies• Needs ground truth reports to issue effective warnings:
o Can monitor local media visually, but too much noise for audio monitoring during a severe weather event
o Amateur radio operators communicate with organized county spotter groups
o Direct contact with city and county officials
Best Practices by the NWS
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Number of Informational NWSChats Each Minute by FWD
# of Chats Each Minute Emergency Issued 10 Minute Average
1. Maintaining a consistent, reliable presence in chat drives a consistent warning message.
Findings• Zero Deaths– Good Warnings– Daytime– Video
• Integrated Warning Team Worked– One Voice to all*– Multiple jurisdictions saying the same thing
• NWSChat– Glue that held it all together– FWD Watched Media…but can’t hear media
