the 29th conference arab-acrao 29 march - 3 april 2009 comparison of student flow in different...
TRANSCRIPT
The 29th Conference ARAB-ACRAO 29 March - 3 April 2009
Comparison of Student Flow in Different Colleges of Kuwait
University Using Absorbing Markov Analysis
Dr. Shafiqah A. Al-AwadhiDr. Shafiqah A. Al-Awadhi
Deanship of Admission & Deanship of Admission & RegistrationRegistration
Kuwait UniversityKuwait University
The rapid expansion of programs, departments and colleges in Kuwait University in terms of both size and quality has had a profound impact on the entire society.
The economic and social needs associated with higher educational institutions have caused many segments of Kuwaiti public to observe the performance of these organizations with renewed and increased interest.
The higher education process demand a greater proportion of the country's financial resources.
INTRODUCTION
The questions under consideration for the study:
1) What is the probability that a student who has been admitted to any college specifically and KU generally will graduate?
2) What is the probability that a student who has been admitted to any college specifically and KU generally will withdraw?
3) What is the average life time a student spends at each level?
4) What is the probability that a student who has been admitted will transfer between colleges?
The questions under consideration for the study:
5) What are the factors that affect the student life times at any level in KU ?
6) What is the probability that a student will progress to a next level ?
7) Are there any differences between colleges in students‘ life times spent in each level?
8) Are there any differences between levels in students' life times in each college?
9) Are there any differences between probabilities of graduating and dropping out between scientific and art colleges?
The graduation process
World W/O a degree
High school graduates
KU College
From the same college
To a collegeEntering
freshmen
Graduat
e
Transfer
Exit
Student flow in Faculty of Science
Science College
Allied health
Law
Literature
Islamic studies
Social sciences
Education
Administrative Sciences
Engineering
College of Women
World without a degree
KU graduate
High School
Outside of KU
Transfer
Tran
sfer
Adm
iss
ion
Exit
Exit
academic year 1996/1997
to 2004/2005
We investigated the flow of
students in
Kuwait University via Markov
Analysis.
Science
15.9%
1100
students
Education
16.6%
Engineering
11.5%
Administrative Sciences
12.4%
Social
Sciences
7.4%
law
4.9%
Shareea’
6.2%
Medicine
2.6%
Pharmacy
0.8%
Dentist
0.5%
Allied health
3%
Arts
15.5%
sample size of each college
Credit Hours in KU
The regular registered credit hours are between 15 and 19 per semester but it
is not allowed to be less than 12 credits.
In summer semester it is allowed to be between 3 and 9 credit hours.
To graduate from different colleges are:
132 creditEducation
Arts
More than 154credit
Medical Colleges
129 creditScience
142 credit Sharee’a
144 credit Engineer
130 creditBusiness
Administration
126 creditSocial Sciences
AlliedHealth
153 credit Law
Graduate requirement
Graduate
Not registered
Dropped out
Senior>90 credit
hrs
Junior61-90 credit
hrs
Sophomore31-60 credit
hrs
Freshman< 30 credit hrs
Status
F : Freshman, a student who successfully completed less than 30 credit hours. So : Sophomore, a student who successfully completed between 31-60 credit hours.J : Junior, a student who successfully completed between 61-90 credit hours.Se : Senior, a student who successfully completed more than 90 credit hours.
G : Graduated from the Faculty of Science.
O : Dropped out or academically dismissed from Kuwait University.
NR : Not registered, perhaps to take care of personal problems, but eventually will return to the system
T : Transferred between the colleges in Kuwait University.
Each state is classified as follows:
P(Xn+1 = j | X0 = x0, ..., Xn-1= xn-1, Xn= i)
= P(Xn+1 = j | Xn = i)
= Pij
A stochastic process with the following property is called a Markov chain.
A Markov chain of 7 states is identified for the study.
kkP...
k2P
k1P
......
......
......2kP...
22P
21P
1kP...
12P
11P
P = = (Pij)
Transition probability
matrix
Canonical form of the transition matrix
QR
I 0
TlTkklPR ,:
TjiijPQ ,:
If T denotes the set of transient states
Freshmen
Freshmen
NR
Sophomore
Freshmen
Sophomore
Sophomore
NR
Junior
Junior
Out
111
21
11
11
F So J Se G NR O
F
So
J
Se
G
NR
O
Frequency transition data for the case study
1 1
1 1
2 1
1
1
1 1
2
1
1 1
1 1
1
A =∑ Si 1 + 0 + 1
….
s1
s3
s2
1 + 1+ 1 ….
….
14257540061045
0900672034021
0059157726110
0001260745611
2021291633011
000004570
000000100
F So J Se NR G O
F
So
J
Se
NR
G
O
1425 900
Frequency transition data of 1100 random sample of students from Kuwait University
GOFSoJSeNR
G1000000
O0100000
F00.020.620.33000.03
So00.0100.550.4100.02
J00.01000.490.480.02
Se0.260.010000.730
NR00.090.150.160.220.120.25
Canonical form of transition probability matrix P
U =
0.1790.821NR
0.0250.975SE
0.0480.952J
0.0820.918SO
0.1380.862F
OG
Probability matrix U
The probabilities of graduating or dropping out starting at a givenlevel for the data
M =
8.182NR
3.744Se
5.842J
8.052So
10.503F
The matrix M
The average number of semesters required for graduation starting from any levels of
study
ArtsSocialLawBus’n
sEdnShariaSciEngMedAllied
F0.560.590.610.550.550.530.710.590.500.60
So0.560.550.630.480.510.420.510.560.360.56
J0.500.520.560.460.440.430.470.490.540.44
Se0.660.650.610.630.740.650.730.780.900.71
NR0.160.430.430.150.180.170.310.290.330.00
Probabilities to remain in the transient state of each college
Data from Different Colleges
ArtsSocialLawBus’n
sEdn
Sharia
SciEngMedAllied
F2.32.52.62.32.32.23.92.52.02.3
So2.42.32.72.12.11.82.22.41.62.3
J2.12.22.41.91.81.91.92.12.21.9
Se2.92.92.62.83.93.03.84.610.43.5
NR1.31.81.81.31.31.31.71.51.61.1
Average life times of the students in each transient state
Data from Different Colleges
ArtsSocialLawBusEdnShari
aSciEngMedAllied
F0.600.910.980.800.910.770.370.770.930.69
So0.790.951.000.910.990.890.490.880.950.81
J0.850.981.000.951.000.960.780.941.000.99
Se0.901.001.000.981.000.960.940.991.001.00
NR0.720.981.000.810.970.850.450.620.940.95
The probabilities of reaching the graduate state G
Data from Different Colleges
ArtsSocialLawBusEdnShari
aSciEngMedAllied
F0.190.050.020.070.010.080.260.200.070.11
So0.180.0500.0300.040.170.100.050.05
J0.150.0200.0300.040.090.0400
Se0.09000.0200.040.030.0100
NR0.260.0200.0400.120.290.370.060.01
The probabilities of reaching the drop out O state for the 10 colleges
Data from Different Colleges
ArtsSocialLawBusEdnShari
aSciEngMedAllied
F2.282.472.592.242.242.143.522.4122.5
So2.282.222.731.932.051.732.042.251.62.3
J2.022.122.321.831.791.771.871.982.171.81
Se2.962.882.572.713.872.833.774.610.383.45
NR1.191.751.751.181.21.21.441.41.51
Average number of semesters the chain remains in transient states
Data from Different Colleges
Scientific
Art
F3.202.31
So2.252.22
J1.992.09
Se4.22.98
NR1.531.36
Mean life time in each state for Scientific and Art colleges
Comparison between Scientific and Art Colleges
Scientific colleges:- Science, Engineering and Allied Health
Art colleges:- Arts, Social sciences and Sharia (Islamic Studies)
USci =
0.1170.2940.589NR
0.0130.0150.972SE
0.0660.0550.879J
0.1900.1300.680SO
0.2250.2210.554F
TOG
The probabilities of reaching the absorbing states G, O and T for Scientific colleges
Probability matrix U
UART =
0.0120.1850.803NR
0.0000.0620.937SE
0.0010.0980.901J
0.0320.1200.849SO
0.1620.1370.701F
TOG
The probabilities of reaching the absorbing states G, O and T for Art colleges
Probability matrix U
Discussion and Conclusions
A freshman student remains for an average of 2 to 3 semesters except in college of science where it is about 4 semesters .
At senior level where the course is comparatively tougher the life time varies in each college. For students in colleges of
Medical sciences, Engineering, Education and Science, the life times are
comparatively high (more than 4 semesters) .
Discussion and Conclusions
The most common reasons for the lengthy life times are:
i) Most of the students take preliminary non-creditcourses in English, Mathematics and Chemistry ii) The regular credit hours suppose to be registered by a student should be between 15 and 19 credit hours but the average registered credit hours for a student in KU is calculated and is about 13 credit hours.
iii) The minimum GPA for graduation is 2.0 and many students can not achieve this GPA to graduate so they repeat some courses with grade less than C to increase GPA.
iv) Each college has its own rules and conditions for transferring, such as taking certain courses and requiring a certain GPA.
Discussion and Conclusions
Among the freshman students in the colleges of Arts, Sharia, Business Administration, Engineering, Allied Health and Science, the graduation percentages ranges between 60% and 80%, while that of Social sciences, Law, Education, and Medical Sciences it ranges between 90% and 98% .
It was found that a student in the scientific colleges stays on average 3 semesters in freshmen state while in arts colleges a student stays on average only 2 semesters.
Discussion and Conclusions
This lengthy life time in the scientific colleges was observed for each of the
states which implies that the average time that a student spends in the system is more
than that in the art colleges.
To avoid such situations, KU should take necessary actions for reducing the drop out
from scientific colleges. They can either raise the minimum admission requirement
of high school grade or give a course counseling for the students at the time of
admission so that the students can reduce their over strain in the studies.
Recommendations
The lower rate of graduation of the senior students might require an investigative effort at the course
levels so as to pinpoint the courses or group of courses which have high flunking rate.
A parallel investigation of the admission policies might be warranted
Encourage science high school graduates to enter scientific colleges
Allocate a special allowance to employees graduates from the scientific colleges college of scientific
colleges
Orient 9th and 10th graders towards the science option
The 29th Conference of ARAB-ACRAOs March 2009
Comparison of Student Flow in Different Colleges of Kuwait
University Using Absorbing Markov Analysis
Dr. Shafiqah A. Al-AwadhiDr. Shafiqah A. Al-Awadhi
Deanship of Admission & Deanship of Admission & RegistrationRegistration
Kuwait UniversityKuwait University
THANK YOUTHANK YOU
QUESTIONSQUESTIONS??????