The 21st Centuryclimate challenge

“One generation plants a tree; the next generation gets the shade.”

Chinese Proverb

“The countries most vulnerable are least able to protect themselves. They also

contribute least to the global emissions of greenhouse gases. Without action they

will pay a high price for the actions of others.”

Kofi Annan

The 21st Century climate challenge

Three distinctive characteristics:

– It is cumulative– The effects are irreversible – Large time lags – today’s

emissions are tomorrow’s problems

– It is global

• The world has less than a decade to avoid dangerous climate change that could bring unprecedented human development reversals

• Climate change is a threat to humanity as a whole. But it is the poor, who face the most immediate and most severe human costs

• The Human Development Report 2007/2008 calls for a ‘twin track’ approach that combines stringent mitigation to limit 21st Century warming to less than 2 degree centigrade, with strengthened international cooperation on adaptation

• The forthcoming conference of the parties in Bali is a unique opportunity to put the interests of the world’s poor and future generations at the heart of climate change negotiations

Rising CO2 emissions are pushing up stocks & increasing temperatures

• In the past 100 years the earth has

warmed 0.70C

Some people walk more lightly than others

• The UK (population 60 million) emits more CO2 than Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan and Vietnam (total population 472 million)

• The state of Texas (population 23 million) has a deeper footprint than the whole sub-Saharan Africa (720 million people)

• The 19 million people living in New York have a deeper footprint than the 766 million people living in the 50 least developed countries

The distribution of current emissions points to an inverse relationship

between climate change vulnerability and responsibility

How many planets?

• If every person living in the developing world would have the same carbon footprint than an average person in the US or Canada, we would need the equivalent to nine planets to absorb the CO2

Charting a course away from climate change

The sustainable emissions pathway is as follows

– The world – cuts of 50 percent by 2050 with a peak by 2020

– Developed countries – cuts of 80 percent by 2050

– Developing countries – cuts of 20 percent by 2050

with respect to 1990

Disaster risk is skewed towards developing countries

• 1 in 19 people are affected in developing countries

• The corresponding number is 1 in 1,500 in OECD countries

A risk differential of 79

Low human development traps

The potential human costs of climate change have been understated

• Climate related risks force people into downward spirals of disadvantage that undermine future opportunities

• In Ethiopia, children exposed to a drought in early childhood are 36 percent more likely to be malnourished five years later – a figure that translates into 2 million additional cases of child malnutrition

• Indian women born during a drought or a flood in the 1970s were 19 percent less likely to ever attend primary school

Five human development tipping points

Reduced agricultural productivity

Heightened water insecurity

Increased exposure to extreme weather events

Collapse of ecosystems

Increased health risks

Climate change will hurt developing country agriculture

Heightened water insecurity – glacial melting

• Glacial melting posses threats to more than 40 percent of the world’s population.

• In the arid cost of Peru, 80 percent of fresh water originates from glacial melt.

• The flow of the Indus, could decline as much as 70 percent

• In Central Asia, losses of glacial melt into Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers could restrict water for irrigation and hydroelectric power

Extreme weather events

• The number of additional people experiencing coastal flooding could range from 134 to 332 million for a 3o- 4o increase in temperature.

• Tropical storms could raise the figure to 371 million by the end of the 21st century

• Possible consequences of one meter rise in sea level

– In Lower Egypt, 6 million people displaced and 4,500 kms2 of farmland flooded

– In Vietnam, 22 million people displaced– In Bangladesh, 18 percent of land area could be

inundated affecting 11 percent of the population – In the Maldives, more than 80 percent of land area is

less than 1 meter above sea level

Avoiding climate change:

strategies for mitigation

Problems setting emission reduction targets

• Insufficient ambition

• Insufficient urgency

• Inaccurate indicators

• Inadequate sectoral coverage

• Inconsistent base years

Targets are de-linked from policies

Pricing carbon emissions

• Market failure: Polluters do not suffer the worse consequences of their own pollution

• Immediate challenge: to push the price of carbon to a level consistent with the sustainable emissions pathway

• Ways to do it: taxation and cap-and-trade and trade

Where should the price of carbon be set?

How should the price be generated?

– Under carbon taxation emitters are required to pay for each tone of CO2 they produce

– Under cap-and-trade, the government sets an overall emissions cap and issues tradable allowances to allow business the “right to emit”

Taxation versus cap-and-trade

The relative merits of taxation and cap-and-trade

• Administration

• Price predictability

• Revenue mobilization

Adapting to the inevitable: national action and

international cooperation

“If you are neutral in a situation of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor.”

Archbishop Desmond Tutu

“An injustice committed against anyone is a threat to everyone.”

Montesquieu

• By mid-2007, actual multilateral financing delivered UNFCCC p US$ 26 millions

• This is equivalent to one week spending in floods defences in the UK

• Amounts are not the only problem. Timing and fulfillment of pledges present further limitations

Towards adaptation apartheid? Developed country investments dwarf

adaptation funds

Investing in adaptation up to 2015

Additional financing needs for climate proofing infrastructure and building resilience are estimated to be at least 86 billion by 2015- Climate proofing infrastructure- Social protection- Strengthening disaster response

The challenges for international cooperation

• Act on the G8 commitments and provide additional financing for adaptation

• Increase financing and regulatory support for the development of breakthrough technologies

• Enhance and provide incentives for technology transfers

• Create a Climate Change Mitigation Facility (CCMF) to mobilize US$25-50 billion needed annually to support low-carbon transitions in LDCs

• Strengthen the capacity of developing countries to assess climate change risks

• Integrate adaptation into national planning and poverty reduction strategies

• “Climate-proof” all development interventions• Streamline the current structure of dedicated

multilateral funds • Shift the focus of support from projects to program-

based financing

Greece’s Role

• Greece accounts for 0.3% of Global emissions

• An average of 8.8 tons of CO2 per person

• These emissions levels are below those of high income OECD countries

• Greece has signed and ratified the Kyoto protocol and is bound to reduce its green house gas emissions by 25% by 2012

The UN values the important contribution that Greece can give to

address the issues related to climate

change