The 2007 Congressional Elections in the Philippines:

An Initial AssessmentPresentation at the National Endowment for

DemocracyMay 24, 2007

By Chito GasconExecutive Director – LIBERTAS

Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellow

Discussion OutlineCONTEXT

Historical & strategicCurrent conjunctureNature of Philippine elections

CONFIGURATION / CONDUCTBalance of political forcesIssues raisedOutcomes, trends, and flashpoints

CHALLENGES / CONSIDERATIONSGeneral observations and conclusionsScenarios and directionsPolicy recommendations

Catholic Bishops’ Statement (CBCP)January 2007

“ These coming elections in May 2007 are especially important. Many of our current political problems, which have hindered fuller economic development and social justice, especially for the poor, can be traced to unresolved questions concerning the conduct of past elections. As a nation, we cannot afford yet another controversial exercise that further aggravates social distrust and hopelessness.”

Basic Political Facts85M people in 7K islands in South-east Asia (10 major languages)350 years of Spanish ruleAmerican rule during the 1st Half of the 20th centuryPrior to & immediately after WW2 a republican system was put in place patterned after the USAWidespread poverty, inequality, and injusticeInternal armed conflictsAuthoritarian rule (1972-1986)1986: Transition to democracyOne of the few democracies in the region

The Downturn1997: Asian Financial CrisisFirst Major Push for Charter-Change (CHACHA)

Top-downPerceived as an effort for perpetuation of power

1998 Presidential ElectionsRise of a populist candidateResurgence of Marcos-style politics and personsBad governance, scandals, corruption

2001: ’PEOPLEPOWER’ Revolt (EDSA2)Reform-oriented BUT elite-driven

The Post-EDSA2 Scenario(2001-2004)

EDSA2Elite-driven, urban-based middle class supportPromise for reforms (rhetoric rather than reality)

The Rupture of the ConstitutionTruncated impeachment processRe-politicization of the security forcesThe role of the judicial system

Deep Political CleavagesMass Riots – EDSA3Oakwood Mutiny / EDSA 20 MutinyResurgence of rebel activity

The 2004 Elections & Their Aftermath: Watershed Year that led to the Backwater

Notwithstanding the political divide, the 2004 national elections were seen as a critical step to ultimately resolving the impasseThe crisis of LEGITIMACY from 2001 was aggravated by revelations of widespread electoral fraud from the 2004 elections, which only partially came to light in 2005, in the wake of the Hello Garci Scandal

Current Political ImpasseChronic Political Crisis

Moves to remove Arroyo (legal & illegal)Counter-moves to consolidate powerTransactional politics & patronage

CHACHA ReduxAttempt to cancel elections

PolarizationIntimidation of the mediaHuman rights violationsCrackdown on the opposition

Stakes of the May 14 Mid-Term Elections

Upper Chamber – The SenateHALF of 24 membersElected at a national levelDominated by opposition parties with only 4 seats from the administration remaining in the Chamber

Lower Chamber – House of RepresentativesALL seats (MIXED SYSTEM: 80% SMD + 20%MPL)13th Congress – 236 / 14th Congress – 265Dominated by administration parties; only 32 seats currently held by opposition parties

ALL Local Government Positions

The Process45 million voters224,748 precincts (around 200 voters each)Voter fills out a blank ballot with possibly up to 33 names to write manuallyCounted manually at the precinct, recorded in an election return, tabulated at the municipality/city in a certificate of canvass, then further tabulated at the province, then another tabulation at the COMELEC

Number of Registered and Actual Voters (in millions), 1992- 2007

Election Registered Voting Percent

May 2007/ projected 45.060 33.795 75.0

May 2004* 43.536 35.414 81.4

May 2001 36.148 27.574 76.3

May 1998* 34.117 29.474 86.4

May 1995 36.415 25.736 70.7

May 1992* 32.141 24.255 75.5

* Presidential, Congressional, AND Local ElectionsSource: 2005 National Statistical Coordination Board Statistical Yearbook.

The Philippine Elections as 3 Markets

Distinct but interrelated markets:• National market for senators• Local markets for congressmen

with national consequences• Purely local markets for governor,

mayor, and local council members

Key StakeholdersThe Party Groups

ADMINISTRATION - TEAM Unity (5 Parties)OPPOSITION – The GO (5 Parties)INDEPENDENTS

• Re-electionists / Returnables / Stars• AKP• ‘KBL’

The Administrative AgenciesCOMELECDeputized agencies

The Non-Partisan Citizens’ Monitoring Efforts

ChurchesSchools & universitiesBusiness & professionalsCivil societyMedia

The Framing IssuesThe Lingering Question of Legitimacy

Truth about 2004 results CHACHA 3

The EconomyMoving onSocial payback

Social IssuesPoverty and hungerAccess to education, health & housing

Corruption / Public AccountabilityPolitical FinanceExtra-Judicial Killings & DisappearancesThe Politicization of Security ForcesThe Party-list System Political Dynasties‘Moral Politics’

Trends, Flashpoints, and OutcomesNo substantial improvement in the administration of the election

Problems with voter’s lists (reports of padding / other irregularities)Widespread Incidences of fraud (retail/wholesale)Weakness in enforcing election laws (campaign finance/others)

Rejection of some political dynasties & consolidation of othersElection-related violencePoliticization of security forcesProxy wars and iconic battlesEmergence of a new generation of national leaders

Trends, Flashpoints, and Outcomes (continued)

The senate vote as barometer of public sentimentExit polls & counts show unequivocal opposition victoryYET, results remain in doubt because of vote manipulation[8-2]-2 /[ 8-1]-3 / [7-2]-3 / [7-1]-4 / [6-2]-4UNLESS ‘Magic’ happens

Paradox: virtual hegemony of the ruling coalition at the local level YET the failure to deliver votes in the senate

80% win for the ruling parties in the House (at least 70 districts uncontested)The so-called COMMAND vote (a myth except in the ARMM)Some cracks in the façade of unity (LAKAS vs KAMPI)Marginal gains for opposition forces in the House

Some Post-Election ScenariosUnfolding Electoral Scenarios:

MASSIVE CHEATINGMODERATE CHEATINGTOLERABLE CHEATING

Post-Election Governance ScenariosLegitimacy issue may linger BUT possible resolution would be through a utilitarian strategy (neither through democratic or revolutionary means)Crossroads: 1) gridlock or 2) workable compromise on some issues For things to move forward, the government must accept the results

The Search for Common GroundBuilding Foundations for the Next Government

Critical to sustain economic growth and reduce public desperationInitiate credible political, electoral, and administrative reforms to reduce imperfections in the political process and ensure credible elections in 2010 that help return stability

Alternative Attitudes to the Result:Best outcome

• Administration focuses on reforms rather than survival• Administration agrees to compromise for the common good

Worst outcome • Administration views its partial win as endorsement of its

policies• The rebuke of administration intensifies the political hostilities

Considerations / Initial StepsComplete full automation of elections ahead of 2010Further reduce opportunities for human intervention / human error in the counting & tabulation processSeparate election adjudication & election disputes resolution from elections management functionsImprove the capacity of the COMELECEnforce election laws fully (particularly on campaign contribution & expenditure) coupled with a vigorous anti-corruption effortSupport civic-ed /voters ed / citizen’s oversightInitiate law reform legislation (party law / political finance)Rationalize the mobilization of election officers to include citizen volunteersCreate civilian oversight & control over security forces

Possible Options & RecommendationsIn order to renew civic engagement in defense of democracy: Some key principles to this political engagement

Consider programs and activities at laying foundations for the restoration of a consensus for democracy in the run-up to the 2010 General Elections through among others:

Restoring full credibility to the electoral process Cleaning-up the institutions and systems for election administration Political party development, strengthening, and consolidation Alternative candidates emerge with distinct visions of governance Preventing a blow-out of the economic situation in the interim period Spreading the benefits of economic growth Pursuing reform agenda in social expenditure (education, infrastructure) Reducing drivers of political polarization such as violence and exclusion

Latest Results

Point estimates of senatorial preferences from exit poll, and projected actual votes and difference from threshold (in millions)

Candidate Coalition PercentProjected votes

Difference from threshold Minimum Maximum

Legarda GO 58.5 19.770 8.178 18.856 20.684

Escudero GO 53.3 18.013 6.421 17.014 19.012

Villar GO 49.8 16.830 5.238 15.842 17.818

Lacson GO 46.4 15.681 4.089 14.705 16.657

Pangilinan Ind 44.6 15.073 3.481 14.103 16.042

Aquino GO 42.6 14.397 2.805 13.434 15.359

Angara TU 41.1 13.890 2.298 12.932 14.847

Arroyo TU 36.8 12.437 0.845 11.495 13.378

Trillanes GO 35.4 11.963 0.372 11.028 12.899

Zubiri TU 34.9 11.794 0.203 10.861 12.728

Honasan Ind 34.6 11.693 0.101 10.761 12.626

Recto TU 34.3 11.592 0.000 10.660 12.523

Cayetano GO 31.0 10.476 -1.115 9.559 11.394

Pichay TU 30.4 10.274 -1.318 9.359 11.189

Pimentel GO 28.5 9.632 -1.960 8.725 10.538

Roco GO 28.4 9.598 -2.839 8.691 10.504

Defensor TU 28.2 9.530 -2.061 8.625 10.436

Sotto TU 26.2 8.854 -2.737 7.958 9.751Note: Sample population is 10,620 actual voters from 79 provinces.Source of basic data: May 14 Pulse Asia exit polls, www.abs-cbnnews.com

Point estimates and projected votes (in millions) with adding preferences for ‘Cayetano’

Candidate Coalition Percent Projected votes Additional votes

Difference from threshold

Legarda GO 58.5 19.770   8.077

Escudero GO 53.3 18.013   6.320

Villar GO 49.8 16.830   5.137

Lacson GO 46.4 15.681   3.988

Pangilinan Ind 44.6 15.073   3.380

Aquino GO 42.6 14.397   2.704

Angara TU 41.1 13.890   2.197

Cayetano GO 38.0 12.842 + 2.366 1.149

Arroyo TU 36.8 12.437   0.743

Trillanes GO 35.4 11.963   0.270

Zubiri TU 34.9 11.794   0.101

Honasan Ind 34.6 11.693   0.000

Recto TU 34.3 11.592   -0.101

Pichay TU 30.4 10.274   -1.419

Pimentel GO 28.5 9.632   -2.061

Roco GO 28.4 9.598   -2.095

Defensor TU 28.2 9.530   -2.163

Sotto TU 26.2 8.854   -2.839

A Call to Political EngagementA Need to Foster Trust in Democratic Process

Elections and election administrationDemocratic institutions (parties and parliaments)Democratic processes (oversight and rule of law)

A need to renew and reinvigorate civic engagement in politics (partisan and non-partisan)Defend, deepen, and widen the political space for effective participationDevelop and support democratic leadersNurture and strengthen constituencies as well as energize communities for sustained advocacy of political and social reform

Strengthening Political PartiesDevelop parties based on principles, not persons

Legal framework that provides incentives and disincentives Ensure transparency, accountability, and internal organizational democracy

These reforms will:Attract sustained support from broad constituenciesSecure adequate fundingDevelop capable mechanisms and machinery for public policyBuild a cadre of credible leaders, candidates, professionals, and networks