The 1995 Canadian Firearms Legislation - Ten Years Later

Gary Mauser, Ph D

ANZSOC Conference

Wellington, NZ

February 2005

Gary Mauser Professor

Institute for Canadian Urban Research StudiesSimon Fraser University

Burnaby, BCCanada

February 2005

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Canada has long had strict firearms law

• 1880s - firearm permit required

• 1920s - anti-Bolshevick law

• 1934 - handguns registered

• 1967 - modern framework for law

• 1977 - FAC• 1991 - Kim Campbell• 1995 - Allan Rock

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The 1991 Canadian Firearms Legislation(1991 through 1994)

• Registration/ban of semi-automatic military-style rifles, and high-capacity magazines,

• Increased FAC requirements: • - firearm safety course,• - 35-question application form,• - passport-type photograph• - two references (spouse required)• - mandatory 28-day waiting period

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In 1994 Canada Consulted with New Zealand

• The Canadians were advised that firearms registration – would be exceptionally difficult to achieve

• - with an acceptable error rate• - at an acceptable cost• - The results probably not worth the effort

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The 1995 Canadian Firearms Legislation(1995 through 2003)

• Prohibition of over half of all registered handguns

• Stricter regulations

• Broadened police powers

• July 1998 - Registration of firearms begun

• January 2000 – Licensing of firearm owners begun

• January 1, 2001 – All firearm owners required to be licensed

• July 1, 2003 – All firearms required to be registered

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Criteria for evaluation

• Reasonable cost

• Acceptable error rate

• High level of compliance

• Public support

• Effective in improving public safety

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Cost estimates of owner licencing and universal firearm registration

• Original estimate in 1995 $C 2 million

• AG partial estimate (DOJ) $C 1 billion

• To date for all agencies $C 2 billion

• Original estimate off by a factor of 1,000

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Organizational problems

• Failure to understand project scope• Failure to plan for inter-agency cooperation• Information criteria differ across agencies• Some participants opposed to firearm ownership

in principle• Failure to consult with owners, provinces, or

Natives• Government cover-up of costs

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Data quality of firearm registry

• Over 5 million of the 7 million registered firearms are un-verified

• Error rate between 50% and 90%– Errors in description of firearm or owner

• Few criminal record checks of owners • No information on location of registered rifles or

shotguns• No information on more than 170,000 people with

firearm prohibition orders

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Police do not trust the registry

• RCMP told Auditor General they do not trust the information (2004)

• Toronto Police Chief reports (2003) the system has not helped solve a single homicide

• Police Association of Ontario said they fail to get information requested 95% of the time (2002)

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Public support for the firearm registry

• 77% of Canadian public agree that “the firearm registry should be scrapped.”– (JMCK Polling, N= 1,586, April 2004)

• 8 out of 10 provinces declined to cooperate with federal government in registry (2003)

• 6 out of 10 Provinces challenged the constitutionality of Firearms Act (2000)

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Owner cooperation

CFC actual

CFC estimate

Mauser estimate

DOJ estimate (1995)

Firearm owners 2 M 2.2 M 3.5 - 4.5 M

7 + M

Firearms 7 M 7.7 M 12 - 13 M

25 + M

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Participation rates

• Approximately 50% of firearm owners have complied

• Less than 25% of residents of First Nations communities have complied

• Approximately 50% of firearms stock is registered

Evaluation

Do licencing and registration improve public safety?

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Which measures are the most appropriate?

• Gun deaths

• Gun crime

• Gun violence

• Total violent crime

• Total homicide

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How measure public safety?

• Gun death?

– Gun deaths are falling in Canada– Gun homicides falling– Gun suicides falling

• Is it a success?

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Trends in Canadian Gun Deaths

Gun Homicide Gun Suicide Total

1991 271 1,108 1,379

1995 176 916 1,092

1998 151 818 969

2001 171 651 822

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Canadian Suicide Trends

Firearm Suicides

Hanging Suicides

Total Suicides

1991 1,108 1,034 3,593

1995 916 1,382 3,968

1998 818 1,434 3,698

2001 651 1,509 3,688

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Gun Death is a Red Herring

• Gun deaths are largely suicides• Suicide is not central to public safety

• Strong substitution effect• The removal of firearms or sharps must balance

liberty with personal safety

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Trends in Canadian Suicide Rates

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Source: Statistics Canada, Catalogue 84F0209XPB

Rates per 100,000 population

Total Hanging Firearm

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Trends in Suicide Rates in Australia

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Standardized Rates per 100,000

FirearmsHangingTotal

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Social costs of the decline in gun ownership

• Hunters are the driving force behind conservation • Hunters pay $70 million annually in licence fees• Hunters donate $33 million annually for habitat

and conservation projects• Hunters spend almost half ($2.7 billion) on all

expenditures on wildlife related activities• Increased number of wildlife-vehicle collisions

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How measure public safety?

• Gun crime?

• 47% of gun crime is permit violations• Not a measure of violence, but regulatory

enforcement

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Gun Crime in Canada, 2003

Number PercentageIllegal possession 10,037 47%

Other offensive weapon charge

4,510 21%

Robbery with firearm 3,877 18%

Firearm usage 2,256 11%

Homicide with firearm 161 1%

Discharge with intent 223 1%

Trafficking 137 1%

Total crimes with firearms 21,201 100%

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How measure public safety?

• Gun violence?

• Gun violence is small fraction of violent crime

• Not even the worst violence

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Gun violence and violent crime

Violent crime

Homicide Robbery

Australia 1% 14% 6%

England and Wales

1% 9% 4%

Canada 2% 31% 14%

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Injuries caused by weapons during assault, Canada 2003

Firearm Knife Club

Major physical injuries 6% 11% 14%

Minor physical injuries 40% 40% 60%

No injuries 52% 47% 24%

Unknown 2% 2% 2%

Number of incidents 812 5,760 5,432

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How measure public safety?

• Gun homicide?

• Gun homicides are only a fraction of total homicides

• Can reducing gun homicides reduce total homicide?

• Substitution effect is quite powerful

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Homicide trends in Canada

1996 1998 2000 2002 2003

Homicide rate 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.7

% Firearm 33% 27% 34% 26% 29%

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Homicide trends in Australia

1996 1998 2000 2002 2003

Homicide rate 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6

% Firearm 33% 17% 19% 13% 13%

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How should we measure improvements in public safety?

• Violent crime rates should drop

• Not just criminal violence involving guns, but all criminal violence should fall

• Homicide rates should fall

• Not just gun homicide, but total homicide

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More appropriate measures of public safety

• Homicide rate

• Robbery rate

• Armed robbery rate

• Violent crime rate

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Homicide Trends in Canada and USA

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

19901991 19921993 19941995 19961997 19981999 20002001 20022003

Source: Statistics Canada and FBI

Canadian Rate per 100,000 pop

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

USA Rate per 100,000 pop

CDNUS

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Gang Related Homicides in Canada

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Source: Statistics Canada

Percent Gang Homicides

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Homicides per 100,000 pop

% gang relatedTotal homicide rate

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Violent Crime Trends in Canada and USA

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Source: Statistics Canada and the FBI

Offence rate per 100,000 population

CDNUS

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Trends in Armed Robbery in Australia

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003

Armed Robberies6256 9054 10850 9452 9474 7817 7162

% Firearm

25% 24% 18% 15% 14% 15% 16%

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Violent Crime Trends in Australia and USA

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1993 1995 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Sources: ABS 4510.0, FBI Crime Statistics

Offences per 100,000 population

AustraliaUnited States

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Summary and Conclusion

• The 1995 Firearms Act is not a success– Incomplete coverage– Unacceptably high error rate– No evidence for effectiveness

• Firearms registry cost $2 billion -- other public safety measures under funded

• The registry has reduced firearms access but has not improved public safety

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Suggested alternatives

• Improve monitoring of criminals on probation and parole

• Increase prison time for violent criminals

• Increase port security

• Increase number of police officers

• Tighten controls on deportation orders