thailand’s energy strategies. energy situation energy supply is available but with much higher...
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Thailand’s Energy Strategies
Energy SituationEnergy Situation
• Energy supply is available BUT with much higher prices.
• Thailand still depends heavily on energy imports, especially oil.
ดี�เซล
เบนซ�น
น�มั นดี�บดี�ไบ
Crude and Petroleum Product Prices in 2006
Forecast on the Dubai crude price (Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs)
• During Jul-Dec 2006, the price will be about - 6870 US$/barrel. • In 2007, the price is projected to slightly increase to be about - 7071
US$/barrel.
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Price
(US$
/barr
el
J an Feb Mar Apr May
Problems in Nigeria
Problems in Iran Problems in Bolivia
Jun
Diesel
Gasoline
Dubai crude
Energy SituationEnergy Situation
Dec06 Jun07
70 US$/barrel
71 US$/barrel
Shaken stability of Thailand’s economic conditions
Trade deficit Adverse impact on the people as the
commodity prices increase
Impact of the Oil Price Crisis
Objectives of the Energy Plan
• To reduce dependency on energy imports• To enhance the national energy security• To ensure that energy development is
gearing towards sustainable development
1st Strategy : To Reduce Dependency on Energy Imports
Measures: 11. : Diversify fuel sources & types,
focusing on indigenous energy resources
1.2 : Develop and promote the use of alternative energy
1.3 : Improve energy efficiency of the country
Measure 11. : Diversify fuel sources & types, focusing on indigenous energy resources
• Promote the Use of Natural Gas
– to replace petroleum fuels in the transport sector (“NGV Project”)
– to replace fuel oil in the industrial sector
Promotion of NGV utilizationPromotion of NGV utilizationto replace petroleum fuelsto replace petroleum fuels
in the transport sectorin the transport sector
Measure 11. : Diversify fuel sources & types, focusing on indigenous energy resources
Target : Increase the Number of NGV Stations
Region Present2006
2007 2008 2009 2010Q3 Q4
Bangkok & vicinities
53 80 127 197 247 270 325
Central 14 20 45 64 74 80 90North - - 11 1 7 4 5 87 112
Northeast - - 9 24 5 810
4
11
4
South - 2 8 18 26 79 99
Accumulated Stations
6710
2
20
0320
45
0
62
0
74
0
TargetNo. of NGV vehicles (thousand)
14 5 1 171 30039
6500
Promotion of NGV UtilizationPromotion of NGV Utilization
Success Indicators:1) Construction sites for 200 stations have already been identified.2) 200 compressors has been procured; deliveries are scheduled in Q3 and Q4 of
2006.3) 140 trucks for NGV transportation have been procured.4) Other oil companies are encouraged to establish NGV stations, i.e. Bangchak,
Shell, Esso, Caltex and Petronas by providing incentives, e.g. increased marketing margin from 0.83 baht to 2.33 baht/kg (except for PTT stations).
Vehicle Type 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Roadmap Revised Accumulated Vehicles (thousand/yr)
Gasoline-engine Vehicles
Taxis/ Tuk-Tuks/ Sedans/ Government Fleets
33 5. 4 3 .96
7 9 1 3 9 179 219
Diesel-engine Vehicles
BMTA Buses/ Inter-province Buses/ Concessionary Buses
618 407. 78. 938 112.8
126.2
Trailers/ Trucks 3306. 239. 25 31 391. 481.
Pick-ups/ Vans 3306. 078. 586. 120 165 219
Total Diesel-engine Vehicles
39 5. 723. 92 161 217 281
No. of Vehicles (Accumulated)
73 51 171 300 396 50
0
Target : Increase the Number of NGV Vehicles (revised)
Remarks: The Plan was revised due to the following:
• The expansion of NGV stations has been delayed as promotion of NGV vehicles is boosted worldwide, resulting in shortage of equipment and machinery required for the construction of NGV stations.
• Tax incentives to promote NGV utilization were approved in May 2006.• Requests have been received for the installation of NGV kits for 1,785 government
vehicles. Of this, 695 vehicles have been sent in and installation has been made for 668 vehicles.
• There are some technical problems for NGV kit installation for diesel-engine pick-ups.• The number of NGV kit installation operators increases to 38, with 169 workshops and 14
inspectors.
Promotion of NGV UtilizationPromotion of NGV Utilization
Tax Measures• Customs Tax Exemption : equipment/cylinders until end 2008
: NGV engines
• Excise Tax Reduction : OEM from 30% to 20%: Retrofits from 30% to 22%, but
not exceeding 50,000 baht
• Investment Privileges via BOI
Revolving Fund• Energy Conservation Promotion Fund: 2000, Million Baht : Engine
change
- BMTA Buses : Credit line 1700, M Baht, for 1477, buses - Inter-province Buses : Credit line 300 M Baht, for 300 buses
• PTT 5,000 Million Baht : Engine modification/change for private operators
of transport services
Approved Supportive Measures for NGV
Promotion
Promotion of NGV UtilizationPromotion of NGV Utilization
Measure 11. : Diversify fuel sources & types, focusing on indigenous energy resources
Promotion ofPromotion of NG utilizationNG utilizationto replace fuel oilto replace fuel oil
in the industrial sectorin the industrial sector
Initial Phase Target by 2011Industrial Estates in:
• Bangkok and vicinities• Songkhla (Cha-lung)• Chonburi (Pinthong, Welgro) • Rayong (Pha-daeng)• Ayuddhaya (Saharattana Nakhorn, Hitec)
• Samut Sakhorn, Singburi, Ratchaburi, etc.
2005: NG use = 2,300 M litres of fuel oil equivalent 2006: NG use = 2,900 M litres of fuel oil equivalent
2007: NG use = 3,500 M litres of fuel oil equivalent
Entirely replace fuel oil
MMSCFD
4%
Target in 2006 308 MMSCFD
Utilization of Natural Gas to Replace Fuel Oil in the Industrial Sector
256
262
259
267
250
255
260
265
270
เฉลี่��ย 48 ม.ค.-49 ก.พ.-49 ม�.ค.-49AVERAGE 05 JAN 06 FEB 06 MAR 06
Promotion of Gasohol UtilizationPromotion of Gasohol Utilization
Measure 12. : Develop and promote the use of alternative energy
Cabinet Resolution of 17 May 05
Approving the discontinuation of
Octane 95 Gasoline Distribution
as from 1 Jan 07Ethanol Production 11( . M litres/day)
Currently, 4 plants are in operation, with a total capacity of 580,000 litres/day and actual production at 490,000 litres/day.
By Dec 2006, 4 more plants will be on stream, with a total capacity of 510,000 litres/day, using:
- cassava : 210000 litres/day
- molasses : 300000, litres/day
Current Status
Current Gasohol Utilization
Gasohol Utilization = 3.5 M
litres/day
3,103 service stations
There are 30 new applicants for ethanol plant
construction. Biofuel Development & Promotion Committee (BDPC) is urging the plants with licenses granted to submit documents on the equipment procurement plan + down payment + LC placement by 31Jul06; otherwise, the licenses will be revoked.
Promotion of Gasohol UtilizationPromotion of Gasohol Utilization
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Feb-00 Feb-00 Feb-00 Feb-00 Feb-00 Feb-00 Feb-00
Eth
ano
l Am
ou
nt
(M li
tres
/day
)
J an Apr Aug Dec
2006
Apr Jun
2007
Remarks: - During Sep-Nov06, the supply will drop as Thai Agro Energy has notified of its planned shut down due to raw material shortage.- For the plants using cassava, the actual production is expected at 50% of the capacity in the 1st year and 75% in the 2nd year.
Demand & Supply 2006–07Demand & Supply 2006–07
Installed Capacity
Ethanol Requirement to
produce Gasohol 95
Actual Production as
planned
Actual Production in case new plants are delayed for 2
months
Promotion of Gasohol UtilizationPromotion of Gasohol Utilization
Action Plan until end of 2006Action Plan until end of 2006
• Speed up the 4 new plants to be on stream by Dec 06
• Increase the number of Gasohol 95 stations nationwide
• Speed up co-investment between Thai Oil & Liquor Distillery Organization in ethanol production from cassava at 500,000 litres/day
• Promote “Contract Farming” between Ethanol Plants using cassava and Farmers (Pilot project for 3 plants)
Monitoring Agency
Promotion of Gasohol UtilizationPromotion of Gasohol Utilization
MOEN
MOEN/Oil Companies
MOEN/MOF
MOAC/MOEN/ Bank of Agriculture & Agricultural
Cooperatives (BAAC)/MOI
1.6 2.1 2.1 2.21.10.42
Average ethanol requirement to
produce gasohol
Action
Amount(M litres/day)
Replace MTBE by Ethanol
2011201020092008
2009: distribute E10
nationwide
Improve cassava yield 5 tons/rai and sugarcane 15 tons/rai
8.1 8.3 8.5 8.684Gasohol 95 (average)
Improve cassava yield 10 tons/rai and sugarcane 20 tons/rai
Gasohol 91 (average) 3 8 12.4 12.7 130.2
20072006
21. +1.60.46Average actual
ethanol production
Total saving from oil import reduction(Billion Baht/yr) 12 15 15 1683
NB:- Domestic raw materials will be sufficient if the improvement of yield/rai is achieved as planned by the MOAC. - MOEN has liaised with automobile manufacturers and oil traders regarding the policy to promote the use of E10-E100 in 2007.
2008: distribute
E100 in certain areas
Gasohol Road Map: Long Term (2007-11)Gasohol Road Map: Long Term (2007-11)Ethanol Hub
Agency
MOEN
MOAC
MOEN/BDPC
Awaiting licenses: 30
plants
Promotion of Gasohol UtilizationPromotion of Gasohol Utilization
Promotional MeasuresPromotional Measures
1. 1 Aug 06: revoke the licenses of new plants that fail to operate as scheduled and liberalize the ethanol production business.
2. In case the construction of 4 new ethanol plants scheduled to start operation in Dec06 is delayed, there will be 2 options:2.1 Postpone the removal of Gasoline 95 from
the market from 1 Jan 07 to 1 Apr 072.2 Import 30 M litres of ethanol in Nov 06 to
build up the stock
3. Speed up promotion of Gasohol 91 as from 2007-08, and allow export of surplus ethanol from 2009 onwards.
Monitoring Agency
Promotion of Gasohol UtilizationPromotion of Gasohol Utilization
BDPC
MOEN
MOEN
BDPC/MOEN
Promotion of Biodiesel UtilizationPromotion of Biodiesel Utilization
Measure 12. : Develop and promote the use of alternative energy
Biodiesel Production
No. of Plants B100
(certain)4* 6 8 40
Installed Capacity
(M litres/day)
0.85 1.65 2.158 5.0
Palm Oil Demand (M tons/yr)
00.6
0.1404.2
24.7
Raw Material
(Palm Oil)
Nationwide Supply (M tons/yr)
0.37 0.67 0.42 2.41
Supply-Demand 0.31 0.53 0 -0.06
Reduce Import **
(Billion Baht/yr)
126 .1
9.3 55
* Used cooking oil is mainly used as raw material; the quality of B100 does not meet the specifications yet.
** Ex-refinery diesel price (30Jun06) = 21.12 Baht/litre
2012201120102009200820072006Road Map
Promotion of Biodiesel UtilizationPromotion of Biodiesel Utilization
Current Status
Biodiesel Specifications• Commercial scale –
announced 11Jul05 & effective 23Sep05
• Community scale for agricultural machinery – announced 30Jun06 & effective 21Jul06Commercial Biodiesel
• 3 production plants of B100, with a total
production capacity of 350,000 litres/day
(SunTech 500,000 litres/day – COD Jul06)
• 35 service stations for B5 (PTT & Bangchak), with a total sale of 100,000 litres/day sale to lorries & pick-up trucks
• Retail price of B5 is lower than diesel priceat 0.50 Baht/litre
New Areas for Oil Palm Plantation (1 hectare = 6.25 rai)
• Target in 2006 7200, 00 rais
• Palm plantation 05/0 6 6 2 0 , 000 rais
• Credit granted by Bankof Agriculture & Agricultural Cooperatives 258
3M Bt Community-Based Biodiesel(Pilot Project)
Production Capacity (each):100 litres/day
Raw Materials: used cooking oil,
palm oil, jatropha oil
Target Dec 2006: 70 Communities Production: 7,000 litres/day Replace diesel 2.3 M
litres/yr
Promotion of Biodiesel UtilizationPromotion of Biodiesel Utilization
Action Plan Jul – Dec 2006 Agency
1.B100 Plants
• PTT (via PTTCH) is constructing a B100 plant, with a capacity of 600,000 litres/day (COD Dec 07) and is negotiating on joint-venture with 2 private operators, with a total capacity of 500,000 litres/day.
• MOEN jointly with MOAC use excess raw palm oil to produce B100 at 300,000 litres/day for sale to fishing boats, trucks and service stations.
• Service stations of PTT/Bangchak will increase from 35 to 200 stations by Sep 06.
MOEN/PTT
MOAC/Private Operators
Oil Companies
2. Plantation• Set incentive measures for farmers to grow oil palm instead
of rubber trees.
• Promote “Contract Farming” between Farmers - CPO Extraction Plants - B100 Plants.
• Solicit with neighboring countries for oil palm plantation at about 200,000 rais in 2007.
MOEN/BAAC
MOAC/MOEN/BAAC/MOI
NESDB/MOEN/MOAC/
MFA/MOC/MOF
3 Community-Based Biodiesel to replace diesel at 2.3 M litres/yr
• Increase community-based biodiesel to 70 stations under the “One District, One Community-Based Biodiesel” Project.
MOEN/MOAC/MOI/MOST/ Local
Administration Organizations
Promotion of Biodiesel UtilizationPromotion of Biodiesel Utilization
Long-Term Plan (2007-2012) Agency
1. Raw Materials for Production- Speed up new domestic oil palm plantation 3.7 M rais.
- Solicit for new oil palm plantation in neighboring countries, 1 M rais.
- Promote Contract Farming between Farmers-CPO Extraction Plants-B100 Plants.
MOAC
NESDB/MFA/MOAC/MOEN/MOF
MOAC/BAAC/MOEN/MOI
2. Production- Encourage private investors to establish B100 plants to
achieve the targeted production of 8.5 M litres/day.
- Increase community-based biodiesel to 730 stations by 2008 under the “One District, One Community-Based Biodiesel” Project. Each Local Admin Organization procures a location for system installation & feedstock and MOEN/MOST provide biodiesel production equipment & technical advice (production cost ~16-20 Baht/litre).
MOEN/MOI (Industry)
MOEN/MOAC/MOI/MOST/
Local Admin. Org.
3. Distribution- Promote the use of biodiesel with a mixture ratio > B10 - Increase biodiesel service stations nationwide
MOEN/Oil Companies/Automobile
Manufacturers
4. R&D- Trial application of B10-B100 to automobiles and other
vehicles- Value-added creation from by-products via relevant
downstream industries
MOEN/MOST/Academic Institutes/
Automobile Manufacturers
Action Plan established
Promotion of Biodiesel UtilizationPromotion of Biodiesel Utilization
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
2550 2551 2552 2553 2554 2555
CPO tons/yr
CPO ส่�วนเกิ�นบริ�โภค ปี�25492550
Surplus to consumption (incl. export)
Domestic Plantation
Neighbors
Promotion of Biodiesel UtilizationPromotion of Biodiesel Utilization
CPO Demand
Demand / Supply
Demand
2,470,930
872,093
1,133,721
581,395
418,605136,047
CPO Surplus
2006+2007
2007 2010 2011 20122008 2009
Strategy for Palm Oil Procurement for Biodiesel Production
Actual and Expected No. of
Plants 6 8 10 15 20 40
CPO Demand 136047
418,605
581,395
8720,93
1133,721
2470, 930
Supply (without import)
1. CPO Surplus to consumption * 674,425 374,363 446,621 448,325 449,571 450,323
2. CPO Domestic Plantation Plan (DPP) -
34,020
230,850 586,710
1,185,624
1,778,976
3. CPO Surplus + DPP 674,425 408,383677,47
11,035,03
51,635,19
52,229,29
9
Supply(with
import)
4. CPO DPP+Plantation in Neighboring Countries
(Compared with Former Plan)
287,484
34,020
370,903
230,850
611,482
639,191
1 ,110,679
1,283,559
1,412,818
1,959,439
2,148,997
5. CPO Surplus + DPP + Neighboring
Countries (New Option) 674,425 408,383
677,471
1,087,515
1,733,130
2,409,762
Ton/yr
2007 20082009 2010 2011 2012
Forecast of Demand and SupplyForecast of Demand and Supply that is believed to be practical that is believed to be practical and and 5 options for palm oil procurement for biodiesel production.5 options for palm oil procurement for biodiesel production.
* CPO Surplus to consumption = Actual Palm Oil Product + Stock at the beginning of the year – Domestic Consumption (excl. export)
1. Allocate money from the ENCON Fund (increase the contribution rate by 6 Satangs/litre) to promote RE of all types.
2. Set incentive measures for farmers to grow oil palm instead of rubber trees and increase the palm yield from 2.7 to 3.5 tons/rai.
3. Promote oil palm plantation in neighboring countries by giving assistance in seeking sources of fund.
4. Provide soft loans, totaling 1,200 MBt, to investors of commercial-scale biodiesel plants.
5. Provide 100 MBt to be the operating budget for “One District, One Biodiesel” Project, totaling 730 stations.
Promotional MeasuresPromotional MeasuresMonitoring
Agency
Promotion of Biodiesel UtilizationPromotion of Biodiesel Utilization
MOEN
MOAC
MOAC/MOENFinancial Institutions (FI)
MOEN/FI
MOEN/MOST/MOI/ Local Admin. Org.
Measure 13. : Improve energy efficiency of the country
• Transport Sector– Restructure the logistic system of the country– Improve & promote the use of mass transit systems
• Industrial/Commercial/Service Sector– Use pricing measures and legally mandatory
measures, e.g. issuance of energy efficiency standards to improve energy efficiency of the production process in the industrial sector, together with the application of incentive measures
• General Public Sector– Foster energy conservation awareness– Use pricing measures together with legal measures
2nd Strategy: To Enhance the National Energy Security
Measures:
21. : Manage the production of key energy types to ensure greater efficient fuel diversification 22. : Increase and promote exploration of energy resources overseas 23. : Seek for international cooperation in energy development, at both bilateral and multilateral levels 24. : Speed up study on nuclear fuel to be prepared for its application in the long term
Measure 2.1: Manage key energy production for greater efficient fuel diversification
Key Energy Management: PowerKey Energy Management: Power
335,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59
MW
Yr
(43,558 MW)
(38,241 MW)
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.4
6.4
6.66.5
6.5
6.5
6.4
6.5
6.4
4.75.0
5.5
5.55.0
5.0
5.0
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
New GDP
GDP
43 - 47 50 - 54 55 - 59 MWDiff with
MEGMW
Diff withMEG
MEG 7.10 6.97 6.47 31,844 43,558
Apr 06 5.96 5.44 29,337 -2,507 38,241 -5,317
Average Growth 2554 2559
• Load forecast has been revised due to the economic slowdown.
• Power demand growth rate is adjusted downwards from initially forecasted.
2011 2016
2,507 MW 5,317 MW
Revised Load Forecast: Growth rate decreased from initial forecast
Key Energy Management: PowerKey Energy Management: Power
34
Fuel Option in Power Generation
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64
อื่��นๆ
ถ่��นหิ�นน�เข้#�
ล�กิไนต์%
น�มั นเต์�
กิ&�ซธริริมัช�ต์�(LNG, PepeGas)กิ&�ซธริริมัช�ต์�
พล งน�
GWh
Yr
72%
7%
10%6%
48%
10%
7%
20%
12%
3%
31%
14%
5%
29%
18%
3%
6%
68%
17%8%
Hydro
Natural Gas
Natural Gas (LNG, Pipe Gas)
Lignite
Imported Coal
Others
Key Energy Management: PowerKey Energy Management: Power
Others
Imported Coal
Lignite
Natural Gas (LNG, Pipe Gas)
Fuel Oil
06 070706 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1615 17 18 19 20 21
x
Ft will not increase until Jan 07
Implementing Guidelines
• Energy conservation measures help slowdown the power
demand growth rate to 4%
• Increase the use of natural gas from:
- Phu Hom basin to fuel Nam Phong Plant in Oct 2006, reducing the use of fuel oil by 60 M litres/month.
- Gulf of Thailand/Myanmar
• Accelerate the use of coal at the IPP plant, BLCP, reducing the use of fuel oil by 110 M litres/month.
Key Energy Management: PowerKey Energy Management: Power
Road Map
1. Reduce the use of fuel oil/diesel so as not to affect the Ft.
2. Diversify fuel types in power generation, via:2.1 Import coal in 2013, starting with power generating
capacity at 700 MW.
2.2 Import hydropower from neighboring countries, by encouraging EGAT/Thai investors to invest in hydropower projects in those countries.
• Lao PDR 2,200MW, during 2011-2015
• Myanmar 3,000MW, during 2013-2021 (1st project is Hutgyi)
• PR China 3,000MW, during 2016-2017
Key Energy Management: PowerKey Energy Management: Power
Hutgyi
MALAYSIA
PR China
Myanmar
Cambodia
Vietnam
INDIA
6,100 MW( - 201321 = 3,000 MW)
3,000 MW( -201617)
ล�ว
Thailand
LPDR
Hydropower from neighboring countries
4,050 MW( - 201115 = 2,200 MW)
Key Energy Management: PowerKey Energy Management: Power
Estimation of EGAT’s Long-Term Capital InvestmentEstimation of EGAT’s Long-Term Capital Investment
4545,,979700
99 ,,185185 3636,,78578520082008
EGAT’s Long-Term Capital EGAT’s Long-Term Capital InvestmentInvestment
4040,,163163
22 2,2,375375
1010,,193193
GenerationGeneration
1919,, 297 297
88 ,,328328
77 ,,777777
TransmissiTransmissionon
20102010
TotalTotal
5959,,464600
20092009
3030,,70703320072007
1717,,979700
20062006
TotalTotalYearYear
3939,,024024 2222,,3463466161,,373700
148148,,545400
6666,,933933215215,,447373
Unit: M BahtUnit: M Baht
Key Energy Management: PowerKey Energy Management: Power
Key Energy Management: Natural GasKey Energy Management: Natural Gas
Measure 2.1: Manage key energy production for greater efficient fuel diversification
Plan of Natural Gas Demand Showing Continuous Plan of Natural Gas Demand Showing Continuous
GrowthGrowth
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2549 2551 2553 2555 2557 2559 2561 2563
EGAT / IPP / SPP
NEW IPP (Gas 70%)
Industry
NGV
GSP
Unit: MMSCFD
3,145
74%
9%
62%
52%
10%
7%
17%
20%
5,015
15%
13%
20%
CAGR 12% CAGR 4%
Growth Rate Increases:
Short term (2006-2010)
12%
Long term (2011-2020)
4%
Expand the market that optimizes the value creation of natural gas:
Industries (CHP)/Transport (NGV)
Gas Separation Plants/ Petrochemical
GDP Growth 5.2%
GDP Growth 5.5%
7,350
Source: PTT/ EPPO/ Draft PDP 2006
Key Energy Management: Natural GasKey Energy Management: Natural Gas
2006 2008 2010 2012 2015 2026 2028 2030
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2548 2551 2554 2557 2560 2563
Unit: KBD
OilOil
Coal/LigniteCoal/Lignite
ElectricityElectricity
RenewableRenewable
416
915
19%2 9%
21%
2 1%
11%
26%
21%
22%
20%9%
CAGR 5%
Natural Gas(CAGR 10%)
Natural Gas(CAGR 10%)
Year 2006 2010 2020MMSCFD 282 520 1,080
Fuel oil replacement (M litres/yr)
2,600 4,800 10,000
Value of fuel oil replacement(M Baht/yr)
33,000 51,450 117,000
Value derived from EE improvement (M Baht/yr)
888 4 ,81513,610
Plan for Value Creation in the Industrial Sector
Energy Demand in the Industrial Sectorby Fuel Type
Energy Demand in the Industrial Sectorby Fuel Type
Projects in progress 297 MW
Suvannabhumi Airport (2006) 52 MW
PTTUT 1-2 (2008-09) 225 MW
Government Office Centre (2008) 10 MW
Future Park Rangsit (2007) 5 MW
Energy Complex (2009) 5 MW
Projects under FS 720MW
PTTUT 3-4 225 MW
Sahaviriya Steel Factory 220 MW
Samui Island 100 MW
Eastern Seaboard Industrial 150 MWEstates
Bangchak Oil Refinery 20 MW
Siriraj Hospital 5 MW
High Potential (25 projects) 259MW
Expansion of Efficient Use of Natural Gas via
the Use of Combined Heat & Power (CHP)
15%
2 6%
17%
21%
22%
Key Energy Management: Natural GasKey Energy Management: Natural Gas
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Plan for Expansion of Distribution Plan for Expansion of Distribution Pipeline System to Promote Use of Pipeline System to Promote Use of
Natural Gas in the Industrial & Natural Gas in the Industrial & Transport SectorsTransport Sectors
Expand City Gas Suvannabhumi – Suksawad - Siriraj Sai Noi – Suksawad - Siriraj Samut Prakarn – Bang Chak
Expand to Regional Estates/Industrial Areas
Central Region Ayuddhaya (Nakhon Luang district) Samut Sakhon (Kratumbaen district) Prachinburi (Gateway Estate, Sahapattana Group)
Eastern Region Rayong (TPI)
Western Region Ratchaburi (Ratchaburi Industrial Estate)
Southern Region Songkhla (Chalung Industrial Estate)
Key Energy Management: Natural GasKey Energy Management: Natural Gas
GSP 6 GSP 7&8 & Ethane Plant 2009 2012-14
3rd Wave 3rd Wave Phase 1 Phase 2
Value added (Billion Baht) 42.5 47.3
Value of investment Billion USD 2.8 2.4
Billion Baht* 110.8 96.9
Revenue Estimate: 288 Billion Baht/yr @ 2018
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2548 2551 2554 2557 2560 2563
2549 2553 2555 2558
GSP ExpansionGSP Expansion
LPG/Ethane Production LPG/Ethane Production
5,317
3,680
4,524
2,450
932
2,450
3,627
2,296
Eth
an
eLP
G
Unit: K Ton/Yr
491
1 ,465
GSP 1-5GSP 1-5
GSP 6GSP 6
Ethane PlantEthane Plant
GSP 7+8GSP 7+8
CAGR 8%
GSP 6/Ethane Plant
GSP 7 (LPG Only)
GSP 7+8 (Ethane Extraction)
Unit: MMSCFD
Increase gas separation capacity to accommodate the petrochemical industry development
Plan for Value Creation in the Petrochemical Industry/
LPG Export
Remarks: * Exchange Rate at 40 Baht : 1 USD
Key Energy Management: Natural GasKey Energy Management: Natural Gas
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
2006 2010 2012 2015
Jun2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
3 ,150
Now
Unocal Add
100
(Jun)
Unocal Add &
Pipeline No. 3 70
(Aug/Sep)
Reduce Pressure @ ERP/ECP
65
(Sep)20
(Sep)
Reduce Border Pressure @ MyanmarPhuhom
108
(Oct)
200
(Jun)
A18 Early Gas
+200(Apr)
A18
330
(Jan)
Arthit
60
(Jan)
Arthit Add
(270+60)(Jul)
B17
YetagunAdd
100
(Jul)
150
(Jan)
A18 Phase 3
330
(Oct) 250
(Jul)
UnocalAddS. BKT
หน่�วย : ลี่�าน่ ลี่บ.ฟุ�ต/ว�น่
FPSO FPSO
Plan for Natural Gas Supply: Short-TermPlan for Natural Gas Supply: Short-Term
Jul 2007
Natural Gas from the Gulf of Thailand (2,213 MMSCFD) until the capacity of the offshore Pipeline No. 3 is used up.
Use of FPSO to speed up increase of NG supply from the Gulf of Thailand (Arthit/B17)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2549 2551 2553 2555 2557 2559 2561 2563
Gulf of Thailand
MyanmarM7/M9
LNG/Regional Gas
72% 70% 52%
28%
21% 12%5%4%
6%30%
Plan for NG Supply
Key Energy Management: Natural GasKey Energy Management: Natural Gas
LNG/Regional Gas to meet the increasing demand (starting 2011)
MMSCFD
- LNG (5-10 MTA) 700-1,400
• Middle East (Iran/Qatar)
• Malaysia
• Australia (Woodside)
• Russia (Sakhalin)
- Regional Gas
• M7/M9 /A1/
600
Other Myanmar
• Natuna 1,000
Additional Gulf to replace decreasing NG in the Gulf of Thailand (starting 2022)
- Arthit 3110
- Pailin add132
- Thailand-Cambodia 1,000
Overlapping Area
Plan for Natural Gas Supply: Medium/Long TermPlan for Natural Gas Supply: Medium/Long Term
Key Energy Management: Natural GasKey Energy Management: Natural Gas
Plan for the Expansion of Natural Gas Pipeline NetworksPlan for the Expansion of Natural Gas Pipeline Networks
Expansion of Domestic NG Pipeline Networks (MMSCFD)
East Coast Year 2011 Offshore 2010, 3910, Onshore 1200, 3700
West Coast Onshore 1265 1760,
Distance 3000, 4400, km
Expansion of Cross-Border NG Pipeline Networks
Accommodate domestic demand in the long term
Preparedness to be “Gas Hub” Natuna (Indonesia) 1,600
km A1, M7/M9 (Myanmar) 1,200
km OCA (Thailand-Cambodia
Overlapping Area)
Key Energy Management: Natural GasKey Energy Management: Natural Gas
Project on the LNG Receiving TerminalProject on the LNG Receiving Terminal
Location: Map Ta Phut Industrial Estate (MapTa Phut Industrial Port, Phase 2)
Capacity: - Initial phase 5 M Tons/year
(700 MMSCFD) as at 2011
- Long Term 10 M Tons/year
(1,400 MMSCFD) as at 2018
Lining of Onshore Pipeline No. 4 (42”), 1,300 km, linking with the Terminal and the existing pipeline system/New IPPs
Value creation from the cool of LNG
- GSP 7 and 8
- Power Plants/Petrochemical Industry
Project Site: Map Ta Phut Industrial Port, Phase 2
Project Site: Map Ta Phut Industrial Port, Phase 2
Key Energy Management: Natural GasKey Energy Management: Natural Gas
Investment in energy & petrochemical industries Investment in energy & petrochemical industries
is increasing continuously.is increasing continuously.
2,925
39,553
9,193
21,993
5,956
Pipeline SystemNGV
JV
ธุ�รก�จอื่��น่ๆ โรงแยก
ก!าซฯ2,802
10,465
6,767
30,320
13,788
ระบบท่�อื่ฯ
NGV
JV
ธุ�รก�จอื่��น่ๆ โรงแยก
ก!าซฯ
2006 2007
79,620 64,142
Investment in the next 5 yrs
307,346
Unit: M Baht
604,607
PTT PTT Subsidiaries
GAS
222,726
OIL12,961
JV69,349
Others2,310
GAS222,726
OIL12,961
PTTEP142,280
Petchem137,080
Refining89,560
Gas 79%Gas 65%
72%
37%23%
4%
1%
2%
24%
22% 15%
Key Energy Management: Natural GasKey Energy Management: Natural Gas
Measure 2.2: Increase and promote Measure 2.2: Increase and promote exploration of energy exploration of energy resources overseasresources overseas
• Encourage “National Champions” in both petroleum and electricity generation industries to invest or joint venture in energy development projects in foreign countries.
Measure 2.3: Seek for international cooperation in energy development, at both bilateral and multilateral levels
• Speed up energy cooperation projects to enhance energy supply for Thailand, through the bilateral discussion framework with neighboring countries.
• Seek for cooperation in the energy technology development, via the multi-lateral discussion framework, and forge ahead Thailand’s energy policies in international forums.
Measure 2.4: Speed up study on nuclear fuel to be prepared for its application in the long term
• Seek cooperation with countries with expertise in nuclear technology
• Human resources development to accommodate future nuclear projects
Measures:
31. : Promote participation of the general public in energy development projects
32. : Improve and promote the protection against, and the management/control/alleviation of pollutions resulting from energy development activities
3rd Strategy: To Ensure that Energy Development is Gearing towards Sustainable Development
•The World’s Largest Crude Reserve– Crude reserve: 743 billion
barrels or 619. % of the world crude reserve.
•The World’s Largest Crude Producing Region – Crude production of the Middle East,
as at the end of 2005, is 9.17 billion barrels/year, accounting for 31% of the total world crude production.
Remarks: As at the end of 2003,
World crude reserve = 1200.7 billion bbl
World crude production = 29.6 billion bbl/yr
Impact of Political Tension in the Middle Impact of Political Tension in the Middle EastEast
Influential Factors of the ME over the World Energy Situation
• In case of a slight oil shortage (The supply decreases but is not less than 80% of the averaged oil demand per day.):
– The government will be lenient with regard to the mandatory oil stockpile, which will be released to cover the domestic demand, under specified measures and for a period of time as deemed appropriate.
Thailand’s Energy Preparedness in response to the Political Tension in the ME
Impact of Political Tension in the Middle Impact of Political Tension in the Middle EastEast
• Largest Source of Crude Import to Thailand
Importance of the Middle East to Thailand
Middle East
79.7 %
Africa
3.0 %
Asia Pacific
17.0 % Others
0.3 %
Source Amount(M. Litres)
Share(%)
Africa 1,415.09 3.0
Middle East
38,301.65 79.7
Asia Pacific
8,175.74 17.0
Others 141.09 0.3
Total 48,032.57 100.0
Share of Crude Import to Thailand
by Production Source
Impact of Political Tension in the Middle Impact of Political Tension in the Middle EastEast
Crude Import to Thailand from the Middle East (by country)
Country Amount(M. Litres)
Share (%)
United Arab Emirates (UAE) 15,987.64 41.7
Iraq 656.42 1.7
Kuwait 243.90 0.6
Oman 7,214.47 18.8
Qatar 1,968.87 5.1
Saudi Arabia 9,379.69 24.5
Yemen, DEM. (South) 178.75 0.5
Yemen 2,671.91 7.0
Total 38,301.65 100.0
• In case of a severe oil shortage (The available supply is less than 80% of the averaged oil demand per day):– The government will intervene to control the overall pricing and
consumption amount, via application of 2 major measures: Supply Side & Demand Side.
Preparedness Measures: Supply Side• Utilization of oil from domestic resources. Under the Petroleum Act, the
government will limit crude oil exports of concessionaires of crude production from domestic resources, of which the capacity is ~60,000 bbl/day. Crude oil produced must be sold only to domestic oil refineries.
• Request activation of the mechanism under the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement (APSA) & have negotiations done to be ready for the application of APSA to oil producing countries in ASEAN, e.g. Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei.
• Request cooperation from Transnational Corporations in the oil business in Thailand, e.g. Shell, Esso and Caltex, to get prepared to obtain additional quota of both crude and refined products, from their respective parent companies for distribution in Thailand during the oil shortage.
• Use the Government to Government negotiation mechanism to seek for cooperation/assistance in oil trading/exchange with each other.
Impact of Political Tension in the Middle Impact of Political Tension in the Middle EastEast
Thailand’s Energy Preparedness in response to the Political Tension in the ME
Preparedness Measures: Demand Side• The Objective of Demand Side Measures is to optimize oil
utilization efficiency, with no excess impact on the economic conditions and quality of life of the people.The government will determine the oil rationing for economic sectors, divided into: Economic group requiring special attention of the
government, i.e. industrial, transport, fishery and agricultural sectors – a focal monitoring body will be assigned to manage the rationing, which may be the Ministry of Energy together with Article 7 Oil Traders.
General group, i.e. oil consumers in all regions – the rationing will be based on the demand by province and the Provincial Governors will be assigned to determine the oil rationing priorities within their respective provinces.
For both measures, concerned government agencies and Article 7 Oil Traders will prepare key data/information, e.g. the amount of demand and of oil stockpiles at oil depots situated in various regions, for the consideration of oil rationing for each economic sector.
Impact of Political Tension in the Middle Impact of Political Tension in the Middle EastEast
Thailand’s Energy Preparedness in response to the Political Tension in the ME
CONCLUSION
• Thailand as a small country in South-east Asia cannot escape the impact of world energy situation.
• Thailand depends heavily on energy supplies from abroad, especially crude oil from the Middle East.
• Situation in the world energy market has direct impact on Thailand in a few day.
CONCLUSION
• Thailand is now working very hard on other fuels such as biofuels (Ethanol & Bio-diesel) and NGV which can be produced locally to help reduce dependency on world supply of energy. It might be small but worth trying.
• In the long run, nuclear might be the final answer for Thailand when other fuels are depleted.
Energy Policy and Planning OfficeMinistry of Energy
Thailand