thailand market focus monthly strategy

ed: CK/ sa: AS, PY, CS

COVID resurgence a key risk to recovery

• New COVID-19 cases soaring exponentially, semi-lockdown

measures in place to contain the virus

• Downside risks to our 2021 GDP and earnings growth

• Yet, some companies are less affected by the pandemic

• Top picks – BCH, KBANK, PTTEP, PTTGC, SCC, STGT, TQM & UTP

SET underperformed regional peers in April 2021. The Stock Exchange

of Thailand (SET) Index eased 0.3% in April 2021, trailing its regional

peers’ 2.9% gain. This was amid the third wave of the COVID-19

pandemic that saw the number of daily new infections surge to an

alarming 2k+ cases, which is a historical high. For 4M21, the Thai

market rose 9.2%, outperforming regional peers’ 5.0% gain.

Third wave of COVID-19 pandemic to delay the recovery process. The

number of new infections has risen sharply in April due to the more

contagious virus variants. This resulted in semi lockdowns in certain

provinces currently. This could present downside risks to our 2.9%

GDP growth forecast and our 85% earnings growth forecast for this

year.

Maintain end-2021 SET Index target of 1650. We prefer the Energy,

Food, and Healthcare sectors, as we anticipate better outlooks for

these sectors in 2021. We also like the Banking sector for its attractive

valuation at 0.7x P/BV, which is c.-2SD of its historical average. The

Banking sector’s 1Q21 results announced so far have trumped our and

market expectations, amid stronger-than-expected non-interest

income and lower-than-expected credit costs.

Our top picks based on three main themes are as follows:

(i) Core holdings. Our picks are Kasikornbank (KBANK) and Siam

Cement (SCC). Both are stocks with solid fundamentals, long track

record, while trading at attractive valuations.

(ii) COVID-19 plays. Our top picks are Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH),

Sri Trang Gloves Thailand (STGT), and TQM Corporation (TQM).

These companies should see higher revenue amidst the COVID-19

pandemic.

(iii) Commodity plays. Here, we like PTT Exploration & Production

(PTTEP), PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC), and United Paper (UTP).

These companies are enjoying the upcycle of their respective

industries and should be less affected by the resurgence of the

COVID-19 pandemic.

SET : 1,549.22

Analyst

Chanpen SIRITHANARATTANAKUL +662 857 7824

[email protected]

Thailand Research Team +662 857 7824

[email protected]

Key Indices

Current % Chng

SET Index 1549.22 -2.14%

SET 100 Index 2117.45 -2.58%

SET 50 Index 929.63 -2.76%

Bt/US$ Exchange Rate 31.12 -0.29%

Daily Volume (m shrs) 40,513

Daily Turnover (US$m) 4,084

Daily Turnover (Btm) 127,109

Market Key Data

(%) EPS Gth Div Yield

2020 (54.5) 2.4

2021F 84.7 2.8

2022F 15.4 2.9

(x) PER EV/EBITDA

2020 40.2 12.3

2021F 21.8 9.9

2022F 18.9 9.0

Source of all data: Companies, SET, DBSVTH

Source: DBSVTH

DBS Group Research . Equity

DBS Group Research . Equity

6 May 2021

Thailand Market Focus

Monthly Strategy Refer to important disclosures at the end of this repor

STOCKS

12-mth

Price Mkt Cap Target Performance (%)

Bt US$m Bt 3 mth 12 mth Rating

Bangkok Chain Hospital PCL 18.20 1,455 23.00 24.0 32.1 BUY

KASIKORNBANK 126 9,571 195 0.8 53.0 BUY PTT Exploration & Production 118 14,955 145 11.2 40.8 BUY PTT Global Chemical 66.75 9,601 73.00 11.1 79.5 BUY

Siam Cement 462 17,774 496 20.6 33.5 BUY Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) PCL 45.25 4,145 60.50 9.9 N.A BUY TQM Corporation 120 1,149 137 (2.0) 53.0 BUY

United Paper 22.40 467 25.00 9.4 131.3 BUY

Source: DBSVTH, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Closing price as of 5 May 2021

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/company/TR4295892862




https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/company/TR4295892800/Siam%20Cement%20PCL








https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/company/TR4295892800/Siam%20Cement%20PCL




Market Focus

COVID resurgence a key risk to

recovery

Our top picks

Bloomberg Mkt Cap Price (Bt) Target % PE (x) PBV (x) Div Yield (%) ROE (x) % Share Price

Code (US$m) 30 Apr (Bt) Upside 20A 21F 22F 20A 21F 22F 20A 21F 22F 20A YTD 3M 6M

BCH TB 1,448 18.10 23.00 27% 36.7 32.5 29.6 6.6 5.9 5.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 18.7 33.1 24.8 31.2

Given the new wave of COVID-19 outbreak, we see less downside risk for BCH’s

performance compared to premium hospitals due to the availability of a top-line cushion arising from COVID-19-related services, coupled with the fact that Social Security System will remain the revenue growth driver for BCH. We expect BCH’s earnings to grow 10%-13% in FY21-FY22. As we also roll over our DCF valuation to FY22F, our TP rises from Bt17.8 to Bt23.00. BCH is now trading at an FY22F price-to-earnings (PE) of 31.3x, lower than its 5-year average of 33.3x. We believe that its current share price offers a good entry point to take advantage of a recovery in international patients, surge in revenue related to COVID-19 services, and positive development in vaccine rollout plan.



KBANK TB 10,031 132.00 195.00 48% 10.6 9.3 9.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 3.0 3.8 1.9 7.0 16.8 3.9 73.1

KASIKORNBANK’s (KBANK) competitive strength in digital banking and its relentless investments in its information technology (IT) systems will sustain the bank’s No.1 position in digital banking and its leading position in the banking industry. In FY21F, we expect its earnings to rebound strongly by 13.7% y-o-y (vs. peers’ 2.4% y-o-y). Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand’s newly announced COVID-relief measures for SMEs should be positive to KBANK’s asset-quality outlook. Valuation-wise, KBANK is still trading near its 20-year low at 0.7x P/BV, i.e. 2SD below its long-term average P/BV



PTTEP TB 15,152 119.00 145.00 22% 20.8 13.7 11.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 4.2 5.0 3.6 6.4 21.1 15.0 51.1

We like PTTEP due to i) strong oil prices, thanks to the improving demand and supply imbalance, ii) significant drawdown of crude inventory, iii) improving sentiment on anticipated vaccine deployment, iv) additional revenue recognition from 20% stake acquisition of Oman Block 61 in 2Q21F, and v) long-term catalyst from 600MW integrated gas-to-power project in Myanmar (FID by end-2022).



PTTGC TB 9,749 67.75 73.00 8% 7.6 7.6 7.6 1.1 1.0 1.0 5.9 3.0 1.5 0.1 15.8 14.8 69.4

We like PTTGC for i) the improving sentiment in the oil market, ii) expectations of strong performance for its polymer business on the back of high demand for homecare and healthcare packaged products, iii) additional polyethylene (PE) capacity from the Olefins Reconfiguration Project (ORP) project, and iv) uptrend for refinery margins.

Source: Company, DBSVTH

Market Focus


recovery

Our top picks – PE bands



SCC TB 17,781 462.00 496.00 7% 16.2 12.0 12.5 1.7 1.6 1.5 3.9 3.0 3.0 11.4 22.2 22.2 36.7

We expect its performance in 2Q21F to be supported by i) the fact that chemical margins are now on an uptrend with HDPE/PP margins breaching US$700/860 per tonne respectively, ii) expectations of no planned shutdown at its olefin plant, where there was c.120ktonnes of ethylene volume lost in 4Q20 due to planned shutdowns, iii) the commercialisation of MOC debottlenecking project by 0.35mtpa, iv) cement and building material demand recovery in the commercial and residential sectors, and v) resilient packaging demand.



STGT TB 2,028 44.25 60.50 37% 4.4 5.3 11.1 2.0 2.9 2.6 6.1 0.0 7.4 79.0 16.4 11.3 -3.3

Our BUY rating is underpinned by i) its large capacity of 32.6bn pieces p.a. at end-2020 (as the world’s 3rd largest glove producer), ii) its expansion plan for 11 facilities to reach an annual capacity of 103bn pieces by 2026F (+214% vs. 2020), iii) its secured backlogs until mid-2023F and we expect its ASP to grow +40% y-o-y in FY21F, iv) strong market demand (amid an undersupplied market), v) its solid competitive advantages arising from cost, tax and loan benefits, and vi) its strong balance sheet with net cash position. We believe STGT could remain a competitive major player in the long term.



TQM TB 1,159 120.50 137.00 14% 51.5 43.3 37.7 15.1 13.6 12.3 0.2 1.5 1.8 29.6 -10.4 0.4 2.1

TQM Corporation (TQM) is No.1 insurance broker in Thailand. By collaborating with various partners, including insurance companies, hospitals, and selling channels, TQM differentiates itself from other brokers and is gaining market share. Besides, with its omni-channel insurance sales and services and well-established online platform, TQM is able to acquire new customers and sell small premium products at low costs. As an insurance broker, TQM does not bear any risk of insurance claims. Currently, TQM has some M&A deals in the pipeline. The completion of these M&A deals should present upside to our premium sales forecasts.



UTP TB 463 22.20 25.00 13% 14.3 13.3 11.3 4.2 3.6 3.0 2.7 3.0 3.6 30.6 70.8 12.1 64.4

Our BUY rating is underpinned by i) its ability to maintain a high level of EBITDA margin from healthy product spreads, ii) expectations of an industry upcycle going forward, thanks to the Chinese government’s stricter polices on the environment, iii) its already secure customer base, vi) robust e-commerce trend, v) its valuation discount relative to peers, vi) its attractive dividend yield of 4.3%-5.0% in FY21F-FY22F, and vii) healthy balance sheet with net cash position.


Market Focus


recovery

Stock picks

Bloomberg Mkt

Cap

Price

(Bt)

Targe

t %

EPS Growth

(%) PE (x) PBV (x) Div Yield (%)

ROE

(%)

Code (US$m) 30 Apr (Bt) Upside 21A 22F 20A 21F 22F 20A 21F 22F 20A 21F 22F 20A

BCH TB 1,448 18.10 23.00 27% 13.0 9.8 36.7 32.5 29.6 6.6 5.9 5.3 1.3 1.5 1.7 18.7

KBANK TB 10,031 132.00 195.00 48% 13.7 (5.3) 10.6 9.3 9.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.9 2.3 2.3 7.0

PTTEP TB 15,152 119.00 145.00 22% 52.2 23.0 20.8 13.7 11.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 3.6 2.9 3.6 6.4

PTTGC TB 9,749 67.75 73.00 8% nm (41.3) 7.6 7.6 7.6 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.5 5.9 3.5 0.1

SCC TB 17,781 462.00 496.00 7% 35.0 (3.7) 16.2 12.0 12.5 1.7 1.6 1.5 3.0 4.2 4.0 11.4

STGT TB 2,028 44.25 60.50 37% (16.8) (52.1) 4.4 5.3 11.1 2.0 2.9 2.6 7.4 9.4 4.5 79.0

TQM TB 1,159 120.50 137.00 14% 18.9 15.0 51.5 43.3 37.7 15.1 13.6 12.3 1.8 1.6 1.9 29.6

UTP TB 463 22.20 25.00 13% 7.4 17.5 14.3 13.3 11.3 4.2 3.6 3.0 3.6 3.8 4.4 30.6


Market Focus


recovery

COVID-19 pandemic

Here comes the third wave. The number of new COVID-19

infections in Thailand has continued to soar to a record high of

over 2k cases per day, raising concerns that the number of

hospital beds will not be sufficient to accommodate COVID-19

patients. The situation is quite alarming in Bangkok with new

cases surging exponentially to over 1k cases per day. The

Public Health Ministry has come up with three solutions

including: i) hospitals assigning more ICU beds to COVID-19

patients, ii) setting up more COVID-19 ICU cohort units, and iii)

setting up a field of ICU facilities.

Latest statistics. The total number of COVID-19 infections in

Thailand rose to 72,788 cases (+1,763 cases) as of 4 May 2021.

Of the total, 42,474 have recovered, 30,011 were still being

treated at hospitals, and 303 have died (fatality rate of 0.42%).

Daily new confirmed cases

Source: http://www.ddc.moph.go.th

Ongoing vaccination. Thailand kicked off its vaccination

programme on 1 March 2021. As of 2 May 2021, the number

of people who have received COVID-19 vaccines amounted to

1.49m people. Of the total, 1.10m people have received the

first dose of vaccines, and 0.39m people have received two

doses of vaccines.

Based on data from Ourworldindata website, the current

vaccination progress in Thailand is still low, with only 1.58% of

its total population getting at least one dose of the COVID-19

vaccine. This is lower than Singapore (23.32%), Cambodia

(7.67%), Hong Kong (12.70%), South Korea (6.63%), Indonesia

(4.56%), Malaysia (2.38%), Myanmar (1.84%), and Laos (1.73%).

So far, the country has ordered a total of 64.5m doses of

COVID-19 vaccines (including Sinovac’s 3.5 m doses and

AstraZeneca’s 61m doses). It is in the process of procuring

35.5m more doses from other producers. The country aims to

vaccinate 50m people, which account for 70% of the

population by end-2021, to achieve herd immunity.

Vaccination rate is still low in Thailand

Source: http://www.ourworldindata.org,, DBS

Measures to contain the virus. The Bangkok Metropolitan

Administration (BMA) has ordered the temporary closure of 31

types of venues for 14 days from 26 April 2021 onwards. It

also declared the mandatory use of masks in public areas and

air-conditioned rooms for all Bangkokians. Those who do not

comply will be subject to a hefty fine of up to Bt20,000.

Quarantine period back to 14 days from 1 May 2021. For all

foreigners and Thai travellers arriving in Thailand, the

quarantine period has been raised from 7 and 10 days to 14

days, in order to reduce risks of transmission of new COVID-19

variants in Thailand. Note that the country had earlier

reduced the quarantine period from 14 days to 10 days and 7

days amid the improving COVID-19 situation in the country.

Country designated into three colour-coded zones. Amid

soaring new COVID-19 cases, the Thai government has

designated the country into three colour-coded zones of Dark

Red, Red and Orange to contain the pandemic. The Dark Red

Zone will apply to areas under maximum control and strictest

measures, followed by Red and Orange Zones. Bangkok and

five other provinces are designated as Dark Red Zones, 45

provinces as Red Zones, and 26 provinces as Orange Zones.

The government has also banned selected activities and

limited operating hours in some of these zones, e.g. in Dark

Red Zones, dining in is not allowed and wearing masks is

compulsory at all times in public places. The government has

also recommended the public to stay at home during these

difficult times. The measures are in place from 1 May 2021 for

14 days and can be extended.

We see these new measures as necessary to contain the

virus. The measures will have a negative impact in the near

term for affected businesses, e.g. shopping malls, retailers,

hospitality, etc. We also see downside risks to our 2.9% GDP

growth and 85% corporate earnings growth forecast for this

year.

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Location % of Population As of

Singapore 37.8% 02-May-21

Hong Kong 12.7% 02-May-21

Cambodia 8.5% 02-May-21

South Korea 6.6% 02-May-21

Indonesia 4.6% 02-May-21

Malaysia 2.8% 01-May-21

Laos 1.7% 26-Apr-21

Thailand 1.6% 02-May-21

Philippines 1.5% 01-May-21

http://www.ourworldindata.org/

Market Focus


recovery

Economy

Inflation surged in April due to low-base effect

Thailand’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.4% y-o-y in April

2021, returning to positive territory for the first time in 14

months since March 2020. The growth was the highest rate in

8 years and four months. The main reasons are (i) the surge

in oil prices as compared to the low-base effect last year, (ii)

the end of government’s measures to lower the utilities bills

for households and (iii) the increase in fresh food prices e.g

pork, fresh fruits and vegetables amidst supply shortage.

On a m-o-m basis, headline inflation rose 1.38%. In the first

4M21, headline inflation increased 0.43% y-o-y.

Core inflation rose 0.30% y-o-y in April 2021. Excluding energy

and fresh food, core inflation expanded 0.30% y-o-y in April

2021 and 0.16% y-o-y in 4M21.

Looking forward, inflation could stay elevated near term. We

expect headline inflation to stay elevated in 2Q21 due to the

low base of oil price in 2Q20.

The Ministry of Commerce still expects headline inflation to

grow in the range of 0.7%-1.7% in 2021. Note that we

currently expect inflation to rise 1.0% in 2021 and 1.3% in

2022.

Inflation

Source: Ministry of Commerce, DBSVTH

Inflation returned to positive territory in April 2021

Source: Ministry of Commerce, DBSVTH

More COVID relief measures announced

On 5 May 2021, the Cabinet approved new COVID-19

assistance measures divided into two phases (urgent

assistance measures and the additional measures in later

phases).

1. The budget for urgent assistance measures is c. Bt85.5bn to

increase handout budget in current projects comprising of :

(i) Rao Chana (We Win): an additional Bt1,000 per week for a

period of 2 weeks - for the target group of c.32.9m

people (spending period ended on 30 June 2021)

(ii) Mor33 Rao Rak Kan (Section 33 We love each other): an

additional Bt1,000 per week for a period of 2 weeks - for

the target group of c.9.27m people (spending period

ended on 30 June 2021)

2. The budget for additional assistance measures in later

phases is c. Bt140bn in three main schemes comprising of :

(i) Welfare card: an additional Bt200 per month for a period

of 6 months - for the target group of c.13.65m people

(during July to December 2021) along with an additional

Bt200 per month for a period of 6 months for group of

people who require special care totaling of 2.4m people

(during July to December 2021)

(ii) Khon La Khrueng Phase 3 (Co-payment): an additional

budget of Bt3,000 per person (limit spending of Bt150

per day) - for the target group of c.31m people

(iii) Ying Shai Ying Dee (E-Voucher handouts) – new scheme:

E-Voucher handout with a budget of Bt7,000 per person

(limit spending of Bt5,000 per day) to spend for goods

and services from VAT-registered entrepreneurs during

August to December 2021- with expected target group

of c.31m people

% of 4M21

Total m-o-m y-o-y y-o-y

Headline inflation 100.00 1.38 3.41 0.43

Food & non-alcoholic bev. 40.35 0.73 0.4 0.07

Rice, flour and cereal products 4.09 -0.55 -6.74 -6.07

Meats, poultry and fish 8.93 0.12 2.35 1.62

Eggs and diary products 2.05 -0.87 -4.77 -1.54

Vegetable & fruits 5.47 6.2 3.25 0.45

Seasoning and condiments 2.17 0.08 3.43 3.39

Non-alcoholic beverages 2.21 -0.07 0.33 -0.24

Prepared food at home 8.70 0.08 0.49 0.38

Prepared food out of home 6.20 0.00 0.70 0.65

Non-food and beverages 59.65 1.84 5.34 0.69

Apparel & footwear 2.23 0.03 -0.30 -0.25

Housing and furnishing 23.17 4.82 4.56 -1.48

Medical and personal care 5.68 -0.01 0.11 0.06

Transport & communication 22.67 0.07 10.21 3.54

Recreation and education 4.51 -0.08 0.01 -0.13

Tobacco & alcoholic beverages 1.39 0.00 0.01 0.02

Core inflation 67.06 0.14 0.30 0.16

Raw food and energy 32.94 4.02 12.16 1.3

Raw food 20.55 1.41 0.11 -0.45

Energy 12.39 8.71 36.38 4.38

Apr-21

-6.0%

-4.0%

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0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

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Headline CPI Core CPI

Market Focus


recovery

The approved assistance measures will help boost domestic

consumption from locals. However, all approved schemes

besides Ying Shai Ying Dee are mainly to be used with

traditional trade retailers and will not directly benefit to the

listed retailers. However, the new scheme (E-Voucher

handouts) is applicable to spend in listed retailer stores. Thus,

this scheme should boost sector same-store sales growth

during August – December 2021.

In addtion, the cabinet also approved

- Bt20bn low interest rate loans through Government

savings Bank (GSB) and The Bank for Agriculture and

Cooperatives (BAAC). The interest charged will be based

on flat rate at no more than 0.35% per month. The loan

term is no more than 3 years. It also approves Specialized

Financial Institutions to extend grace period for principal

repayment to debtors affected by COVID until end of 2021.

- Cuts in electricity and water charges for households and

small businesses for two months during May and June

2021.

Bank of Thailand cut GDP growth forecast

MPC maintained policy rate at 0.50%. The Monetary Policy

Committee (MPC) has maintained the policy rate at 0.50% at

its meeting on 5 May 2021. The key reasons are that the Thai

economy is likely to slow down sharply due to the third wave

of the COVID-19 pandemic which will have negative impact on

domestic consumption and tourism recovery.

The MPC also highlighted three key risks for the economy.

These are (i) the distribution and efficacy of COVID-19

vaccines, (ii) uneven economic recovery, and (iii) the fragile

financial position of SMEs and households.

MPC cut Thai GDP growth to 1-2% in 2021. The MPC has

revised down its 2021 GDP growth from 3% earlier to 1-2%,

and that in 2022 from 4.7% to 1.1-4.7%. The revised forecasts

are based on three scenarios of vaccine distribtion as follows.

Note that we also see downside risk to our 2.9% GDP growth

forecast for this year.

Bank of Thailand’s revised GDP forecasts

Source: Bank of Thailand

The SET will delay the inclusion of free float in index calculation

Following the public hearing, the Stock Exchange of Thailand

(SET) will delay the planned implementation of free float

adjusted market capitalization in SET Index series calculation

indefinitely (from 1 July 2021 planned earlier), as there are

more objections to the change. Note that the SET Index series

are currently based on full market capitalization basis.

Among the key reasons from those who voiced their concerns

are that the change in the SET Index series calculation does

not solve the low free float problem, the change will have a big

impact to stock prices and shareholders, some shareholders

are holding shares via nominees, most Thai corporates are still

family owned, etc.

The announcement has resulted in negative sentiment

towards the banking sector, which were expected to benefit

from the potential increase in weighting in the new SET Index

series given their relatively large free float.

Scenario

Vaccines distributed in 2021 <64.6m doses

Herd Immunity

Year 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022

GDP (%) 2.0 4.7 1.5 2.8 1.0 1.1

Tourist arrivals 1.2 15 1.0 12.0 0.8 8.0

Impact to GDP if vaccination

is slow so that herd immunity

is delayed beyond 1Q22

Unemployed people

at end 20222.7m people 2.8m people 2.9m people

1Q22 3Q22 4Q22

-3% of GDP

(Bt460bn)

5.7% of GDP

(Bt890bn)

1 2 3

64.6m doses100m doses

Market Focus


recovery

Economic Forecasts

Thailand GDP growth forecasts

*refers to fiscal years i.e. 2020 represents FY21 - year ending March 2021 ** new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation

Source: DBS Bank

Global GDP forecasts

Source: DBS Bank

THA ILA ND

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f

Re a l output a nd de ma nd

GDP growth (02P) 3.4 4.1 4.2 2.4 -6.1 2.9

Private consumption 2.9 3.1 4.6 4.2 -1.0 2.8

Government consumption 2.2 0.1 2.6 1.9 0.8 2.5

Investment

Private investment 0.6 2.9 4.1 2.8 -8.4 3.2

Public investment 9.6 -1.4 2.9 0.2 5.7 2.0

Exports (G&S) 2.7 5.2 3.3 -4.0 -19.4 10.3

Imports (G&S) -1.0 6.2 8.3 -3.0 -13.3 8.0

Inflation (%y/y) 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.0 -1.0 1.0

Policy rate (%eop) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.25 0.50 0.50

USD/THB (eop) 35.8 32.6 33.0 30.2 30.1 30.8

Exports (%y/y, USDbn) - BOP basis 0.1 9.7 7.6 -2.5 -6.4 4.0

Imports (%y/y, USDbn) - BOP basis -5.1 13.0 15.0 -5.2 -14.0 7.0

2018 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2018 2019 2020 2021f 2022f

China 6.7 6.1 2.3 10.5 5.5 2.1 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.5

Hong Kong 2.8 -1.2 -6.1 4.0 2.3 2.4 2.9 0.3 2.0 2.5

India (FY basis)* 6.8 4.0 -7.8 10.5 5.2 3.4 4.8 6.2 4.6 4.0

Indonesia 5.2 5.0 -2.1 4.0 4.5 3.2 2.8 2.0 2.2 2.8

Malaysia 4.7 4.3 -5.6 5.2 4.8 1.0 0.7 -1.1 1.4 2.0

Philippines** 6.2 5.9 -9.5 7.0 6.0 5.2 2.5 2.4 3.0 2.8

Singapore 3.1 0.7 -5.4 6.3 3.2 0.4 0.6 -0.2 1.4 1.5

South Korea 2.9 2.0 -1.0 3.8 2.8 1.5 0.4 0.5 1.7 1.0

Taiwan 2.8 3.0 3.1 5.0 2.8 1.3 0.6 -0.2 1.5 1.0

Thailand 4.2 2.3 -6.1 2.9 2.2 1.1 0.7 -1.0 1.0 1.3

Vietnam 7.1 7.0 2.9 6.7 6.8 3.5 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.6

Eurozone 1.9 0.9 -6.8 3.5 3.5 1.8 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.2

Japan 0.3 0.3 -4.8 2.8 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5

United States*** 2.9 2.2 -3.5 6.0 2.5 1.9 2.3 1.3 2.8 2.1

CPI inflat ion, % YoYGDP growth, % YoY

Market Focus


recovery

Policy rates forecasts

* 1-yr lending rate; **3M SOR; ***prime rate

Source: DBS Bank

Exchange rates forecasts

Note: Australia, Eurozone and United Kingdom are direct quotes

Source: DBS Bank

1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22

China* 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.85 4.05

India 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00

Indonesia 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50

Malaysia 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75

Philippines 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

Singapore** 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12

Korea 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.75

Taiwan 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.25

Thailand 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Vietnam*** 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00

Eurozone 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Japan -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10

United States 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Policy interest rates, eop

1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22

China 6.50 6.68 6.64 6.60 6.58 6.56 6.54 6.52

Hong Kong 7.76 7.76 7.77 7.77 7.78 7.79 7.79 7.80

India 73.1 76.8 76.5 76.2 75.9 45.6 75.2 74.9

Indonesia 14500 14600 14500 14400 14350 14300 14250 14200

Malaysia 4.12 4.16 4.14 4.12 4.11 4.10 4.09 4.08

Philippines 48.7 49.5 49.1 48.8 48.4 48.1 47.7 47.3

Singapore 1.35 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.34 1.34 1.33 1.33

Korea 1140 1155 1150 1145 1140 1135 1130 1125

Thailand 30.7 31.2 31.0 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.4

Vietnam 23090 23060 23030 23010 22970 22940 22900 22870

Australia 0.77 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.78

Eurozone 1.19 1.17 1.18 1.18 1.19 1.19 1.20 1.20

Japan 109 110 109 109 108 108 107 107

United Kingdom 1.39 1.35 1.36 1.38 1.37 1.37 1.38 1.38

Exchange rates, eop

Market Focus


recovery

Market

Eight new listings so far this year. Of the total, three were

new listings on the main board (SET) and five were new

listings on the Market for Alternative Investments (MAI).

These new listings were mostly well accepted by the market,

with their share prices surging on average 73% above their

initial public offering (IPO) prices.

Upcoming IPOs to make their debut soon. The following

table shows the list of potential IPOs in the pipeline on both

the SET and MAI. The two upcoming ones on the SET are

Donmuang Tollway (DMT) and Ngern Tidlor (TIDLOR), both of

which have already sold their IPO shares to the public in late

April and are awaiting to debut on the SET. The two

companies to start their trading on the MAI soon are Ditto

(Thailand) (DITTO) and Winnergy Medical (WINMED).

Potential IPOs during the rest of the year and 2022. We also

list down those potential IPOs whose filing has been

submitted to the SEC.

Eight new IPOs made their debuts on the market YTD

Source: SET, DBSVTH

Upcoming IPOs to make their debut soon (share placement has completed)

Source of all data: SET, DBSVTH

Company Ticker Sector Mkt Cap

(Btm) Total IPO Current

SET-listed

1 PTT Oil and Retail Business OR Transportation 366,000 12,000 18.00 30.50

2 Roju Kiss International KISS Personal Products & Pharmaceuticals8,760 600 9.00 14.60

3 Asset Wise ASW Property 7,496 761 9.82 9.85

382,256

MAI-listed

1 Jakpaisan Estate Plc. JAK Property 576 320 1.45 1.80

2 TQR Plc. TQR Financials 4,531 230 5.10 19.70

3 President Automobile Industries PACO Industrial 3,060 1,000 1.40 3.06

4 Prosper Engineering Plc. PROS Construction 763 240 2.00 3.18

5 Proen Corp. Plc. PROEN Technology 2,338 316 3.25 7.40

11,269

Combined market cap currently (Btm) 393,524

Market cap at IPO (Btm) 226,997

Share prices vs IPO prices 73%

Shares (m) Price (Bt)

Company % of IPO IPO Sector Business

IPO Post IPO to total price Mkt cap

(m) (m) shares (Bt) (Btm)

SET Market

Donmuang Tollway Plc. (DMT) 140 1,181 12% 16.00 18,903 Transportation

& Logistics

DMT constructs and operates the elevated

toll road, Utra Phimuk – Din Daeng to

National Memorial Section (“Don Muang

Tollway”).

Ngern Tidlor Plc. (TIDLOR) 907 2,321 39% 36.50 84,709 Finance Provides auto-title loans, hire purchase

financing services

MAI Market

Ditto (Thailand) (DITTO) 80 440 18% 7.50 3,300 Technology 1) Selling and providing total solution

services for digital document management

systems, photocopiers, and printers

(Document Management Solution).

2) Providing engineering turnkey services

relating to technology for government

projects.

Winnergy Medical (WINMED) 120 400 30% 3.10 1,240 Consumer

Products

Distributor of machines and equipment for

storage, analysis, diagnosis, and medical

treatment and services provider for genetic

and fetus abnormalities testing.

Shares

Market Focus


recovery

Upcoming IPOs on the main board – SET


Company % of IPO Sector Business

IPO Post IPO to total

(m) (m) shares

Siam Technic Concrete (STECH) 204 725 28% Construction

Materials

Manufacturer of prestressed concrete pile, plank girder, I

girder

Ubon Bio Ethanol (UBE) 1,370 3,914 35% Energy &

Utilities

Distributes processed products from Cassava which are 1)

Ethanol 2) Cassava Flour and Cassava Starch 3) Other

organic products

Srinanaporn Marketing (SNNP) 180 900 20% Foods &

Beverages

Manufacturer and distributor of soft drinks and snacks e.g.

ready to drink jelly, soft drinks, snacks made of squids

and/or fishes, biscuits

Pinthong Industrial Park (PIN) 290 1,160 25% Property

Development

Industrial estate developers. The company also provides

utilites for sales and ready-built warehouses and factories

for rents.

Clover Power PLc. (CV) 320 820 25% Energy &

Utilities

Engages in renewable energy business including 1)

generation and distribution of electricity, 2) engineering

procurement and construction (EPC) services and 3) energy

related businesses.

Chotiwat Manufacturing (CMCF) 188 625 30% Foods &

Beverages

Manufacturer and distributor of processed seafood packed

in cans and pouches, pet food, byproducts from processed

seafood and other products. (EPC) services and 3) energy

related businesses.

Civil Engineering (CIVIL) 200 820 29% Construction

Services

3 mains businesses which are (1) Civil construction services

(2) Construction material trading and (3) Investment and

real estate development.

AMR Asia (AMR) 150 600 25% Information &

Communicatio

n Technology

3 mains businesses which are (1) Civil construction services

(2) Construction material trading and (3) Investment and

real estate development.

NSL Foods (NSL) 75 820 25% Foods &

Beverages

Manufactures and distributes bakery, ready-to-eat

products and snack. The company also provides food

processing service.

Mena Transport (MENA) 184 1,553 12% Transportation

& Logistics

The company provides transportation services using trailer

trucks and concrete mixer trucks, and sales of construction

materials.

Shares

Market Focus


recovery

Upcoming REIT IPOs


Company Max IPO NLA Acquisition Yield Business

Shares Price Debt Equity Year 1

(m) (Sqm) (Btm) (Btm) (Btm)

B&G Leasehold Real

Estate Investment Trust

(BGREIT)

600.0 49,130 7,135 1,500 5,635 7.0% 25-year leasehold rights of Interchange

21 project which is the office and retail

rental space

KTBST Mixed Leasehold

Real Estate Investment

Trust (KTBSTMR)

301.5 131,905 3,011 0 3,015 7.0% Sublease rights of land and properties of

5 projects which are Rich Asset, ST Bang-

bor, ST Bang-pa-in, The Summer Hub,

and The Summer Hill

Supalai Real Estate

Investment Trust

(SPALIRT)

283.1 45,632 3,200 800 2,831 5.6% Freehold rights of land and properties in

Supalai Grand Tower Office Project

Grande Royal Orchid

Hospitality Real Estate

Investment Trust with

Buy-Back Condition

(GROREIT)

315.0 726 keys 4,500 1,350 3,150 6.1% Freehold right of immovable and

movable asset of the Royal Orchid

Sheraton Hotel and Tower Project,

which have the buy-back condition by

the former owner or group of former

owner. The REIT shall procure benefits

by leasing out the asset.

INET Leasehold Real

Estate Investment Trust

(INETREIT)

283.1 492 racks 4000-4500 1,000 3000-3500 8.47-9.99% Investing in freehold rights of Data

Center Building, Substation Building and

other relevant buildings, equipment and

system work of INET-IDC3 Phase 1

Project and the leasehold rights on the

land which is the location of Substation

Building.

Financing by

Market Focus


recovery

Upcoming IPOs on the MAI market


Company % of IPO Sector Business

IPO Post IPO to total

(m) (m) shares

Siam Technic Concrete (STECH) 204 725 28% Construction

Materials

Manufacturer of prestressed concrete pile, plank

girder, I girder

Addtech Hub (ADD) 40 160 25% Services Provides digital content services Support , Digital

Solution for Mobile operators and Online

Advertising services

Nforce Secure (NFSC) 28 103 27% Technology Distributor of Cybersecurity Solution Products

Business and Other Supporting Service Businses.

Saintmed (SMD) 54 214 25% Consumer

Products

Distributor of medical devices from international

manufacturers which can be categorized into 6

groups; Critical Care Product, Respiration Product,

Cardiology Product, General Medical Device

Blubik (BLU) 25 100 25% Technology Strategic and digital technology consulting services

for various business sectors e.g. management

consulting, strategic program management office,

digital excellence and delivery, big data, advanced

analytics and AI.

JSP Pharmaceutical

Manufacturing (JP)

111 426 26% Consumer

Products

Manufacturer of modern medicine, traditional

medicine, herbal products, dietary supplementary

products, medical supplies and cleaning alcohol

under both customers’brands and company’s

brands.

Shares

Market Focus


recovery

Market Overview

April 2021 Recap

SET Index eased 0.3% m-o-m in April 2021, underperforming

its regional peers’ 2.9% gain. This was amid the third wave of

the COVID-19 pandemic which saw the number of new

infections jump exponentially to an alarming 2k+ cases per

day, which is a historical high. For 4M21, the Thai market grew

9.2%, outperforming regional peers’ 5.0% gain.

SET Index performance in Apr 2021 and YTD

April 2021 4M21

NASDAQ 5.4% 8.3%

S&P 500 5.2% 11.3%

FTSE 3.8% 7.9%

Dow Jones 2.7% 10.7%

Dax 0.9% 10.3%

Nikkei -1.3% 5.0%

Taiwan 6.9% 19.2%

Korea 2.8% 9.5%

Malaysia 1.8% -1.6%

Singapore 1.7% 13.2%

HK 1.2% 5.5%

Indonesia 0.2% 0.3%

Shanghai 0.1% -0.8%

SET -0.3% 9.2%

Philippines -1.1% -10.8%

H-shares -1.3% 0.8%

India -1.5% 2.2%

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBSVTH

Steel, Electronics and Packaging led the market in April 2021.

The top three outperforming sectors were Steel (+45.2%),

Electronics (+16.6%) and Packaging (+15.4%). These sectors

saw their share prices surge amid the upcycle of their

respective industries.

The three underperforming sectors were Media,

Transportation, and Banking sectors. These sectors were

negatively affected by the resurgence of the COVID-10

pandemic.

For 4M21, the top three outperforming sectors were Steel,

Paper, and Agribusiness. The Steel sector jumped 106.1% in

4M21, amid the upcycle of the steel industry.

The top three worst performing sectors were Electronics,

REITs, and Transportation sectors. The Electronics sector

tumbled 16.2% in 4M21, as investors took profit on Delta

Electronics (DELTA) which saw its share price plunge 27.2%

after a strong rally.

Sector performance in Apr 2021 and YTD

Sector Apr 2021 YTD

STEEL 45.2% 106.1%

ETRON 16.6% -16.2%

PKG 16.4% 29.8%

CONMAT 14.4% 24.0%

PAPER 13.3% 70.8%

HOME 10.7% 32.0%

PETRO 7.5% 21.7%

IMM 5.5% 10.0%

PERSON 5.0% 14.8%

AGRI 3.7% 45.9%

HELTH 3.4% 10.6%

AUTO 3.4% 16.9%

ICT 1.6% 4.6%

FASHION 1.5% 10.9%

FIN 0.1% 24.2%

MINE 0.0% 0.0%

SET -0.3% 9.2%

INSUR -0.3% 4.3%

ENERG -1.2% 4.3%

CONS -2.1% 18.2%

FOOD -2.5% 11.7%

PF&REIT -2.6% -2.9%

PROF -3.5% 23.6%

COMM -3.8% 11.7%

PROP -4.0% 10.5%

BANK -5.2% 12.9%

TRANS -7.5% 2.4%

MEDIA -7.6% 8.5%


SET’s market capitalisation was Bt18.0tr at end-Apr 2021. The

following chart shows the SET’s breakdown by market

capitalisation.

SET breakdown by market capitalisation

Source: SET, DBSVTH

Market Focus


recovery

Foreign investors remained net sellers in April 2021... Foreign

investors remained net sellers, with a net sell position of

Bt3.4bn in April 2021. Local institutional investors and local

brokers’ proprietary ports turned net sellers with net sell

positions of Bt14.1bn and Bt480.6m respectively. Local retail

investors were the only net buyers with a net sell position of

Bt18.0bn.

…and in 4M21. Foreign investors were sellers of Bt29.4bn in

1Q21. Local institutional investors were also net sellers with a

net sell position of Bt22.5bn. Local retail investors and local

brokers’ proprietary ports were net buyers with net buy

positions of Bt48.0bn and Bt29.4bn respectively.

Foreign + non-voting depository receipt (NVDR) holdings in the

Thai market inched down m-o-m to c.26% currently,

compared to its peak of 36% in 2012.

Foreign+NVDR holdings in Thai stock market

Source: Set smart, DBSVTH

Average daily turnover surged 37% y-o-y to Bt93.3bn in April

2021. Total trading value grew 17% y-o-y in April 2021. This

was on the back of the strong jump in trading value from local

retail investors and brokers’ proprietary ports. The number of

trading days decreased to 18 days in April 2021, from 18 days

in April 2020. The average daily turnover was Bt93.3bn, up

37% y-o-y (vs. Bt68.1bn in April 2020).

For 4M21, the average daily turnover jumped 43% y-o-y to

Bt96.1bn (vs. Bt67.2bn in 4M20).

Turnover jumped strongly for stocks listed on the MAI. The

average daily turnover on the main market (SET) surged 38%

y-o-y to Bt92.3bn in 4M21, while that on the Market for

Alternative Investment (MAI) skyrocketed 604% y-o-y to

Bt3.8bn. This can be attributed to (i) increasing participation

of retail investors in the market, and (ii) rising investor appetite

for smaller-cap stocks.

Average daily turnover rose 37% y-o-y in April 2021


Local retail investors made up 52% of the market’s turnover.

Retail investors contributed the biggest share at 52% of the

market turnover in April 2021 (up from 48% in April 2020),

followed by foreign investors at 32%, brokers’ proprietary port

at 9% and local institutional investors at 7%. Showing the

strongest growth in April 2021were brokers’ proprietary ports

whose trading value surged +38%, followed by local retail

investors +27% y-o-y, foreign investors +38% and local

institutional investors -21%,

Trading value by type of investors


Trading activities – breakdown by type of investors


Local Institutes

Proprietary

Trading

Foreign

Investors Local Investors Total

Aprl 20 144,534 114,367 486,685 684,372 1,429,958

Apr-21 114,217 157,858 540,741 866,273 1,679,088

-21% 38% 11% 27% 17%

4M20 657,843 593,426 2,115,594 2,277,882 5,644,745

4M21 567,694 766,765 2,593,524 3,665,114 7,593,097

-14% 29% 23% 61% 35%

Market Focus


recovery

Regional: Foreign net buy (sell) positions

US$m India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippines S. Korea Taiwan Thailand

2010 29,321 2,345 22,926 1,232 19,657 9,577 2,687

2011 (396) 2,853 (1,069) 1,329 (8,584) (9,076) (167)

2012 24,548 1,703 27,733 2,548 15,069 4,907 2,504

2013 19,986 (1,804) 149,920 678 4,855 9,178 (6,211)

2014 16,162 3,766 22,545 (1,849) 1,287 5,967 13,551 (974)

2015 3,274 (1,580) 3,485 (4,989) (1,194) (3,626) 3,322 (4,372)

2016 2,903 1,259 (38,067) (573) 83 10,480 10,956 2,240

2017 10,095 (2,828) 9,384 2,456 1,140 10,234 8,969 (973)

2018 (4,556) (3,656) (50,284) (2,846) (1,080) (5,672) (12,231) (8,913)

2019 14,234 3,465 (28) (2,647) (240) 924 9,447 (1,496)

2020 23,373 (3,220) (66,087) (5,782) (2,513) (20,082) (15,997) (8,287)

YTD 6,263 603 30,667 (652) (1,225) (8,284) (9,379) (1,094)

Jan-19 (75) 964 (5,322) 253 356 3,658 1,676 214

Feb-19 2,153 (237) (2,675) (196) 178 615 2,471 (106)

Mar-19 6,149 118 (23,264) (379) 88 262 24 (516)

Apr-19 1,541 3,740 30,565 (336) 194 2,252 1,668 107

May-19 1,423 (514) (1,771) (489) (270) (2,548) (3,726) 114

Jun-19 149 776 (4,625) 36 (139) 287 1,091 1,505

Jul-19 (1,934) (20) 232 (18) 81 1,620 (616) 653

Aug-19 (2,199) (651) (9,143) (625) (226) (2,142) (2,785) (1,762)

Sep-19 955 (519) (23,500) (135) (143) (872) 2,532 (381)

Oct-19 2,062 (269) 25,515 (115) 73 (208) 4,094 (258)

Nov-19 3,150 (493) 14,926 (368) (259) (3,025) 1,961 (255)

Dec-19 862 571 (965) (273) (173) 1,024 1,058 (811)

Jan-20 1,373 1 (3,833) (25) (164) (165) (751) (562)

Feb-20 414 (340) (6,895) (473) (179) (3,000) (3,586) (627)

Mar-20 (8,390) (375) (42,686) (1,290) (303) (10,544) (12,077) (2,450)

Apr-20 (31) (560) 56 (609) (325) (3,964) 818 (1,439)

May-20 1,719 552 (2,540) (684) (166) (3,302) (5,051) (984)

Jun-20 2,473 (318) (10,195) (678) (190) (705) 3,269 (737)

Jul-20 1,153 (264) (4,890) (591) (124) 725 269 (323)

Aug 20 6,096 (581) (1,524) (351) (261) (2,295) (2,183) (887)

Sep-20 (767) (1,049) (10,929) (482) (306) (990) (1,425) (738)

Oct-20 2,506 (252) 18,645 (160) (156) (434) (609) (701)

Nov-20 9,559 244 1,644 (250) (169) 5,205 4,507 1,081

Dec-20 7,267 (279) (2,941) (147) (171) (614) 2,285 82

Jan-21 1,978 775 6,621 (213) (273) (5,254) (3,389) (365)

Feb-21 3,016 258 4,160 (214) (191) (1,781) (3,224) (621)

Mar-21 2,333 (186) (1,991) (1) (483) (1,312) (5,523) (1)

Apr-21 (1,064) (244) 21,877 (222) (278) 65 2,758 (107)

1Q19 8,226 845 (31,262) (322) 623 4,535 4,314 (407)

2Q19 3,113 4,002 24,169 (789) (215) (9) (959) 1,725

3Q19 -3,178 (1,190) -32,411 -779 -289 (1,394) -869 (1,491)

4Q19 6,074 (190) 38,371 (782) (523) (2,373) 8,256 (1,885)

1Q20 (6,603) (713) (53,414) (1,788) (646) (13,709) (16,414) (3,639)

2Q20 4,161 (325) (12,678) (1,971) (680) (7,970) (963) (3,161)

3Q20 6,482 (1,895) (17,343) (1,424) (691) (2,560) (3,339) (1,948)

4Q20 19,333 (286) 17,349 (558) (496) 4,158 6,183 461

1Q21 7,326 847 8,790 (427) (947) (8,348) (12,137) (987)

QTD (1,064) (244) 21,877 (222) (278) 65 2,758 (107)

As of 30 Apr 2021 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBSVTH

Market Focus


recovery

Outlook and Strategy

COVID-19 resurgence a key risk to recovery. While we are

positive on the market outlook in the medium to long term,

the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented a

key risk to the economic recovery, corporate earnings growth

and market sentiment in the near term.

Earnings growth. We expect corporate earnings to recover by

85% in 2021 and 15% in 2022. Growth should be boosted by

the Chemicals, Energy, Transportation, and Food sectors.

Maintain end-2021 SET Index target at 1650. The Thai market

is now trading at 22x PE in 2021 and 19x PE in 2022. Our end-

2021 SET Index target remains at 1650, based on 20x forward

PE.

SET PE band


Our preferred sectors. We prefer Banks, Energy, Food, and

Healthcare sectors, as we see better outlook for these sectors

in 2021.

We have three key themes for the market:

i) Core holdings. Our picks are Kasikornbank (KBANK) and

Siam Cement (SCC). Both are stocks with solid

fundamentals, long track record, while trading at attractive

valuations.

ii) COVID-19 plays. Our top picks are Bangkok Chain Hospital

(BCH), Sri Trang Gloves Thailand (STGT), and TQM

Corporation. These companies should see higher

revenue amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.

iii) Commodity plays. Here, we like PTT Exploration &

Production (PTTEP), PTT Global Chemicals (PTTGC), and

United Paper (UTP). These companies are enjoying the

upcycle of their respective industries and should be less

affected by the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Thailand: Corporate earnings

Net profit Growth (%) PE (x)

YE Dec (Btm) FY20A FY21F FY22F FY20A FY21F FY22F

Banking -31% 8% -4% 11.3 10.5 11.0

Finance 19% 10% 10% 22.5 20.7 18.8

Con. Mat. 6% 29% -3% 15.7 12.2 12.5

Chemicals -85% 1541% -22% 220.0 13.4 17.2

Contractors -48% 22% 25% 29.2 24.1 19.2

Property -20% 4% 12% 14.1 13.5 12.1

- Commercial -17% 6% 19% 24.0 22.7 19.1

- Residential -24% 8% 11% 10.7 9.8 8.9

- Industrial -5% -15% 5% 12.6 14.8 14.1

Property

Fund -16% -5% 14%

33.9 35.5 31.1

Energy -64% 161% 13% 44.0 17.5 15.4

Commerce -27% 17% 26% 36.1 30.6 24.5

Transport -111% 38% -666% mn mn 49.8

Tourism -305% -73% -167% mn mn 67.7

Telecom -17% -15% 5% 14.7 17.1 16.3

Electronics 78% 19% 22% 52.2 43.8 35.8

Food -59% 78% 54% 41.6 22.9 14.8

Health Care 14% 45% -26% 24.4 18.5 25.1

Other 11% 48% 18% 32.8 22.2 18.8

DBS Coverage -55% 85% 15% 40.2 21.8 18.9


Regional comparison

EPS Gth (%) PE (x)

2020 2021F 2022F 2020 2021F 2022F

Thailand -54.5 84.7 15.4 40.2 21.8 18.9

Indonesia -46.1 120.0 19.9 34.9 15.9 13.3

Philippines -51.3 65.5 26.3 32.4 17.5 13.8

Singapore -71.2 179.2 16.7 38.2 15.5 13.3

Malaysia -9.4 45.6 -5.1 22.9 13.5 14.3

Hong Kong -21.4 15.7 13.2 13.9 12.7 11.2

MSCI China -0.9 23.9 6.5 19.8 16.4 14.1

Taiwan 23.0 36.2 6.4 19.5 17.1 16.1

Korea 16.4 106.8 16.4 25.1 13.3 11.4

Simple Average -23.9 75.3 12.9 27.4 16.0 14.0


SET P/BV band


Market Focus


recovery

SET: Our sector weightings

Sector Reasons Top buys

Overweight

Banking More positive asset quality outlook; trading at attractive P/BV KBANK, TISCO

Energy Ongoing tight crude supply and strong fuel demand PTTEP

Food Healthy meat prices, with potential benefits from vaccines and hemp CPF

Healthcare Strong earnings recovery for 2021-2022 and will benefit from the vaccine

rollout and hospitel bed programme BDMS, BCH

Tourism Clearer timeline for border reopening with gradual improvement in

performance

MINT, SPA

Neutral

Building

Materials

Mild cement demand recovery from government spending, high value-

added and innovative products

SCC

Commerce Same-store sales growth (SSSG) is on the mend CPALL

Contractor Potentially more projects up for bidding in 2H21 STEC

Finance Strong growth outlook, but more pressure on yields SAWAD ICT Defensive earnings quality with potential average revenue per user (ARPU)

uplift from 5G packages

ADVANC, DIF

Packaging Resilient packaging demand driven by megatrends SCGP, UTP

Petrochemicals Strong demand for single-use plastics for hygiene products and medical

equipment where supply tightness resulted from the delay of plants

resumption

PTTGC

Property

- Residential Earnings recovery, attractive valuation with decent dividend yield AP, SPALI, LH

- Commercial Lower rental discounts expected in 2021 CPN

- Industrial A key beneficiary of potential relocation of facilities from China AMATA

Transportation Better outlook on resumption of economic activities BEM

Underweight

Electronics Unattractive valuation as the sector has re-rated during the COVID-19

pandemic KCE, HANA

PFPOs/REITs Prefer industrial REITs AIMIRT, WHART

Source: DBSVTH

Market Focus


recovery

Sector Update

Our Sector Views Chart/Table Sector: Banking Overweight

Top BUY: KASIKORNBANK (KBANK, BUY, Bt195 TP); TISCO

Financial Group (TISCO, BUY, Bt110 TP) Least preferred stock: -

Regardless of the recent rebound in share prices, Thailand

banks’ valuations remain at their historical lows. We believe

share prices are poised to further re-rate on any positive

newsflow to the market.

Thanks to the Bank of Thailand’s (BOT) series of financial relief

measures and proactive loan restructuring by commercial

banks, we believe that the NPL trend should increase

gradually instead of seeing a sharp spike. Moreover, the BOT’s

newly announced COVID-relief measures for SMEs should

help ease the market’s concerns over banks’ asset quality.

So far, asset quality at most banks have turned out to be

better than they had expected, which should in turn reflect in

lower credit costs in FY21F.

With that, we expect the sector’s earnings to grow 2.4% in

FY21F, vs. a 26.5% contraction in FY20. However, the key

growth driver should be lower credit cost. Operating earnings

(PPOP), however, should be weaker from FY20, due to lower

NIM and lower non-NII.

KBANK is our top pick for its; (i) strong long-term

fundamentals, (ii) strong earnings recovery in FY21F, and (iii)

low valuation at 0.7x P/BV.

TISCO remains our top pick for its effective capital

management that results in high ROE and high dividend yield.

SETBANK: Still trading low


Expect strong FY21F earnings recovery for KBANK


Sector: Energy Overweight

Top BUY: PTTEP Plc (PTTEP TB, BUY, Bt145 TP) Least preferred stock: Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC, FV,

Bt6.8)

We expect crude oil prices to remain buoyant in 2021F. Our

bullish view is supported by: i) expectations of a global

economic recovery after the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines

worldwide, with GDP growth hitting the trough in 2Q20, ii)

world oil demand is expected to recover by c.6mbd which is on

par with the supply addition from OPEC+ during May-Jul, iii)

improving crude demand-supply balance, and iv) significant

crude inventory drawdown (especially in non-US countries),

PTTEP is our top pick for Thailand Oil and Gas sector. This is

supported by i) strong oil and gas prices, ii) additional revenue

recognition from 20% stake acquisiton of Oman Block 61 in

2Q21F, and iii) long-term catalyst from 600MW integrated gas-

to-power project in Myanmar (FID by end-2022).

Crude oil prices (USD per barrel)

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P, DBSVTH

0.7

(0.9)

2.8 0.9 3.6

(37.7)

(2.1)

(23.9) (14.4)

(42.9)(32.7)

(16.6)

40.0

(26.5)

13.7 5.6

(17.5)

3.4 2.7

(1.6)

2.4

(60.0)

(40.0)

(20.0)

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

KBANK KKP KTB SCB TISCO TMB Sector

%

2019 2020 2021F

Market Focus


recovery

Sector: Food Overweight

Top BUY: Charoen Pokphand Food (CPF; BUY; Bt43 TP) Least preferred stock: n.a.

Upstream operators’ performances in 1Q21F are expected to

be strong on the back of strong meat prices and solid demand

over upstream products. Domestic swine prices remained

strong at Bt80/kg in 1Q21, improving from Bt76 in 4Q20.

Looking forward, we expect swine prices to remain strong,

supported by demand recovery and limited supply in some

areas. Nevertheless, domestic broiler prices remained stable

from 4Q20, given that export sales are still recovering.

The Thai FDA has rolled out the licensing process for the

legalisation of hemp plantation for individuals and private

companies. Additionally, hemp seed oil and hemp seed

extraction were allowed for commercial use in cosmetics in

January 2021, followed by food in February 2021 and other

products in the pipeline. Most of the companies are aiming to

launch hemp products in 2H21 that could bring some

excitement to the market. However, given the more serious

COVID-19 situation at the moment (including the temporary

shutdown of dine-in services in restaurants in key cities), we

might see short-term pressure on the demand for some food

products.

Charoen Pokphand Food (CPF) is our top pick in view of its

strong earnings and solid outlook. Despite the normalising

meat prices with the expansion of farm volume production, CPF

should be able to post solid earnings in 2021.

Swine product prices

Source: CPF, DBSVTH

Broiler product prices

Source: CPF, DBSVTH

Sector: Healthcare Overweight

Top BUY: Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS, BUY, TP:

Bt25.00), Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH, BUY, TP:Bt23.00)

Least preferred stock: Bumrungrad Hospital (BH, HOLD,

TP: Bt131.00)

We expect a strong earnings rebound for premium hospitals in

2021, based on our assumption of the return of international

tourists and gradual rollout of vaccines. SSO hospitals’ earnings

should be cushioned by alternative revenue related to COVID-

19 services and the hospitel programme. Chain hospitals –

BDMS, BCH and CHG – will be the largest beneficiaries of the

rollout of vaccines.

We have divided our picks into short to medium term, and long

term. For the short to medium term, we prefer Bangkok Chain

Hospital (BCH) for its low exposure to international patients,

higher proportion of SSS patients to buffer the impact of

COVID-19, and high proportion of COVID-19 services. However,

for the long term, we prefer Bangkok Dusit Medical Services

(BDMS) as a prime beneficiary of the recovery in medical

tourism in FY21F and its readiness to capture in vitro

fertilisation (IVF) treatment opportunities, demand in cross-

border areas, and wellness tourism opportunities.

Core profit 2019-2021

Source: Company data, DBSVTH

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

30

32

34

36

38

40

42


2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

7,178

1,469 1,390 996

420 117 -

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

BDMS BH BCH CHG RJH RPH

2019 2020 2021

71% of pre-Covid-19 level in 2019

39% of pre-Covid-19 level in 2019

Market Focus


recovery

Sector: Tourism Overweight

Top BUY: Minor International Group (MINT, BUY, TP: Bt36.0),

Siam Wellness Group (SPA, BUY, TP: Bt10.0)

Least preferred stock: -

Domestic tourism in 2M21 was hit by the second wave of COVID-19 but this was offset by a strong pick-up in March and the long holidays in April 2021. However, from 15 April, the COVID-19 cases in Thailand has spiked to >1,000 cases/day. The government has yet to impose any lockdown measures but is encouraging people to stay home. Thus, we expect the slowdown in domestic tourism to persist in 2Q21. Over the medium term, we believe an improving COVID-19 situation will be positive for the sector, coupled with the Cabinet’s approval of the reopening roadmap. The key timelines include from 1 July, vaccinated tourists will be allowed to travel freely in Phuket under the Phuket Sandbox model, which will later be expanded to the other five top destinations from 1 October 2021. And from 1 January 2022, vaccinated tourists will be able to travel freely in Thailand.

For the hotel sector, occupancy rate (OR) has increased to 30+% since October, and then dropped from January 2021 on the back of a new wave of the pandemic that emerged in late December 2020 before picking up again to 21.5% in March 2021. The southern part of Thailand showed the weakest OR. Discounts on the average daily rate (ADR) are still being offered to draw local tourists (c.-20.4% y-o-y).

MINT and Siam Wellness Group (SPA) are our top picks in the tourism sector. Their share prices are still lagging behind their peers due to the soft tourism outlook. However, in the longer term, we believe both companies will be prime beneficiaries of a global and domestic tourism recovery.

Thailand: International tourist arrivals

Source: BOT, DBSVTH

Thailand: Average occupancy rate

Source: BOT, DBSVTH

Sector: Telecom Neutral

Top BUYs: Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB; TP: Bt222.00),

and Digital Telecom Infrastructure Fund (DIF TB; TP: Bt15.90)

Least preferred stock: Total Access Communication (DTAC

TB; TP: Bt34.75)

Operators have started to see early signs of a mobile revenue

recovery in 1Q21F, thanks to improving consumer confidence.

Thailand’s consumer confidence index (CCI) bottomed in

January 2021, in the wake of the second wave of COVID-19 that

emerged in late December 2020. We started to see an uptick

in February 2021. Mobile revenue is also improving m-o-m on

the back of industry-wide net subscriber addition trends and a

slower pace of package optimisation. Thanks to the

government’s efforts in boosting consumer spending, vaccine

rollout and a more solid border reopening timeline, we believe

the Telecommunication sector should see less intense price

competition.

Our top pick for the sectors is Advanced Info Service (ADVANC)

(BUY, Bt222) for its strong competitiveness and financial

stability. We also like Digital Telecommunications Infrastructure

Fund (DIF) (BUY, Bt15.90) for its highly stable cashflow.

Thailand: Mobile revenue (market share)


Mobile Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) in THB


- 400 800

1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800 3,200 3,600 4,000 4,400

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

Nov

Dec

'000 People

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun Jul

Aug Se

p

Oct

Nov

Dec

%

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

22.0%21.8%

22.4% 22.3% 22.5% 22.2% 22.2% 22.0%

48.1% 48.6% 48.3% 47.8%46.6% 46.2% 46.2% 46.2%

29.9% 29.6%

29.2% 29.9%30.9% 31.6% 31.6% 31.7%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

DTAC ADVANC TRUE

236

246

254 254251

253255

250246

256

254 252242

239237

234

205

212210 209

213216 217 216

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

DTAC ADVANC TRUE

Market Focus


recovery

Sector: Commerce Neutral

Top BUY: CP ALL (CPALL; BUY; Bt78.5) Least preferred stock: n.a.

Thailand's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) has slumped

again m-o-m in March 2021 on the back of the sluggish

domestic economy, and it is expect to further decrease in April

2021. The retailers’ same-store sales growth (SSSG) has been

affected by the soft consumption and government’s co-

payment programme that might be extended in upcoming

periods. Traditional trade retailers have directly benefited from

the programme, but the listed retailers have been excluded.

Plus, with the more serious COVID-19 situation in Thailand, the

government has encouraged people to stay home, we might

see lower traffic in the stores. This will exert pressure on the

SSSG of the listed retailers in 1H21. In 2021, most of the big

retailers’ full-year SSSG is expected to improve at a clip that is

equal to or slightly higher than the GDP growth rate due to the

lingering uncertainties. The retailers’ store expansion plans are

still in place but some are more cautious and conservative.

However, we note that the share prices of companies with high

exposure to tourists like CPALL and BJC have delivered solid

gains, following the recent approval of the border reopening

roadmap by the Cabinet.

CPALL is our top pick for its pole position in the retail market

and its lower-than-peer valuation despite its dim short-term

outlook. We also believe that the market has yet to price in its

overseas opportunities as well as the potential synergies

arising from the Tesco deal.

Thailand: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

Source: UTCC, DBSVTH

Sector: Finance Neutral

Top BUY: Srisawad Corporation (SAWAD, BUY, Bt98 TP) Least preferred stock: -

While the overall retail loan demand has recovered strongly, the sector’s earnings have still been pressured by lower yields, from lower regulated rates and higher competition.

The Bank of Thailand imposed new (lower) ceiling rates on credit card and personal loans (including auto-title loans), effective Aug 2020. Plus, price competition has become more intense, especially in the high-yield segments, after the joint venture (JV) between the Government Saving Bank (GSB) and SAWAD announced the offering of auto-title loans with interest rates not exceeding 18% p.a. on 25 Mar 2021.

Moreover, the JV will offer a promotional low rate of 14.99% for all customers over the first three months of operations, pressuring yields for the sector. With that, we expect the operators to compete on volume, while finding new markets.

Muangthai Capital (MTC), which had previously charged the lowest rate in the auto-title loan market, has gradually cut its interest rates and currently charges c.14.98% for motorcycle-title loans and c.17.89% p.a. for auto-title loans. It has also expanded into the new-motorcycle hire purchase (HP) market. Meanwhile, SAWAD should benefit from customer traffic for the low interest rate at JV that virtually situated in SAWAD’s c.5,000 branches, while SAWAD will not lower its interest rates, currently at 20-24% p.a. It has recently also expanded into unsecured loan and HP markets.

New ceiling rates on credit card and personal loans

New Previous

Credit card 16% 18%

Personal loans

- Revolving loans 25% 28%

- Instalment loans 25% 28%

- Auto-title loans 24% 28%

Source: The Bank of Thailand (BOT), DBSVTH

SAWAD: Premium valuation reflecting superior growth outlook


20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2018

2019

2020

2021

CCI of Overall economy

CCI of employment

CCI of future income

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

15 16 17 18 19 20 21

PBV (x)

-2 sd

-1 sd

Mean

+1 sd

+2 sd

Market Focus


recovery

Sector: Petrochemicals Neutral

Top buy: PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB, BUY, Bt72)

A few chemical players should benefit from the spike in demand for hygiene and medical products such as personal protective equipment (PPE) which includes safety glasses, nitrile gloves, surgery masks and protective suits. This has boosted the demand for certain chemical materials such as bisphenol A (BPA), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polypropylene (PP), butadiene and high-density polyethylene (HDPE).

On a YTD basis, these chemical prices moved by +84%/+43%/+26%/-15%/+30% respectively.

However, we remain cautious over the long-term outlook for the chemical sector that could be hit by rising feedstock costs, ample supply (both aromatics and olefins chains), and additional supply coming online by c.6-7mtpa. We think PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) will be the least impacted by environmental footprint concerns such as the single-use plastic ban, besides benefiting from rising demand for hygiene products and flexible packaging.

Chemical vs. crude prices

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P, PTTGC, DBSVTH

Sector: Property Development Neutral

Top BUY: Supalai (SPALI: BUY, TP: Bt24.70), AP Thailand (AP:

BUY, TP: Bt9.10), Land & Houses (LH: BUY, TP: Bt9.00)

Least preferred stock: LPN Development (LPN: FV, TP: Bt3.30)

Residential: We expect developers to launch more projects in 2021, but low-rise projects should remain the major contributor. Their presales and financial performance should recover but at a gradual pace in FY21F. Their performance should also improve y-o-y. The sector may still be weighed down by low purchasing power. Nevertheless, the sector’s dividend yield remains at a generous c.5% in FY21F. We maintain our NEUTRAL call on the residential sector.

SPALI, AP and LH remain our favourite companies on the back of their (i) well-balanced portfolios, (ii) strong low-rise residential projects, (iii) attractive valuations, (iv) generous yields, and (v) strong balance sheets. Additionally, SPALI and AP also have high backlog levels relative to peers.

Commercial: Retail rents should improve strongly in 2021 amid lower rental discounts that are in line with improving traffic at shopping malls. The office sector, however, still faces rather cloudy prospects amid sluggish demand and rising supply.

Industrial: The COVID-19 pandemic should accelerate the relocation of manufacturing facilities to Southeast Asian countries, including Thailand and Vietnam, to diversify their risks. This should be positive for all industrial property players, i.e. industrial estate developers, factory and warehouse providers.

Property sector: Earnings growth

Net Profit (Btm) Net Profit Growth

20A 21F 22F 21F 22F

Residential ANAN TB 308 678 977 120% 44%

AP TB 4,227 3,570 4,016 -16% 12%

FPT TB 2,792 1,811 1,822 -35% 1%

LH TB 7,145 7,147 7,913 0% 11%

LPN TB 716 695 758 -3% 9%

ORI TB 2,662 3,019 3,195 13% 6%

PSH TB 2,771 2,944 3,401 6% 16%

QH TB 2,123 2,552 2,888 20% 13%

SIRI TB 1,694 1,403 1,613 -17% 15%

SPALI TB 4,251 5,860 6,073 38% 4%

28,689 29,680 32,657 3% 10%

Commercial CPN TB 9,786 10,340 12,285 6% 19%

Total 9,786 10,340 12,285 6% 19%

Industrial AMATA TB 1,103 1,299 1,418 18% 9%

ROJNA TB 1,282 1,296 1,367 1% 6%

WHA TB 2,524 2,794 3,028 11% 8%

Total 4,909 5,388 5,813 10% 8%


Market Focus


recovery

Sector: Contractor Underweight

Top BUY: Sino-Thai Engineering (STEC; HOLD; Bt17.20 TP) Least preferred stock:

We expect over Bt400bn infrastructure projects to be up for

bidding in FY21F, as depicted in the following table. As two of

the largest contractors in Thailand, CK and STEC should be

prime beneficiaries of the upcoming projects in FY21F. The

companies have a good track record with 25%-30% success

rate in project bids.

Of late, steel prices have increased sharply. However, the

managements of STEC and CK’s are expecting this to have

little impact on their margins, as their steel prices were

locked in when signing the purchase contracts.

Our top pick is Sino-Thai Engineering. We like STEC for its: i)

huge backlog that secures its revenue stream for two years,

ii) net cash position, iii) strong chances of winning mega

projects, and iv) margin improvement. We expect a brighter

outlook from FY21F onwards.

Trends for backlogs and new projects inked

Projects Project

Value (Bn)

Bidding

process

Fast Track: MRT Orange Line Taling Chan -

Thailand Cultural Centre 90.3

TOR in May

21

Fast Track: MRT Purple Line Tao Poon –

Ratburana (Southern Extension) 100.5 3Q-4Q21

Double Track: Den Chai – Chiang Rai – Chiang

Khong 71.7 2Q21

Double Track: Ban Phai – Nakhon Phanom 54.7 2Q21

Water Transmission Tunnel: Mahasawat Water

Treatment Plant Ratchapruek Road 2.5 1Q21

Water Transmission Tunnel: Mahasawat Canal

Phet Kasem Road 3.7 1Q21

Water Transmission Tunnel: Kalapapruek Road

Bangmod Pumping Station 5.0 1Q21

Water Transmission Tunnel: Bangmod Pumping

Station Samrong Pumping Station 4.6 1Q21

Source: CK, DBSVTH

Sector: Electronics Underweight

Top BUY: KCE Electronics (KCE, BUY, TP:Bt67.00) , HANA

Microelectronics (HANA, BUY, TP:Bt65.50)

Least preferred stock: DELTA Electronics (DELTA: SELL ,

TP:Bt224)

Thailand’s electronic exports increased strongly by 9.8% y-o-y

in Mar 2021 and 10.7% in 1Q21. The strongest growth was

seen in printed circuit board (PCB) and telecommunication

equipment. In 1Q21, PCB and telecommunication equipment

led the overall trend by delivering y-o-y growth of 38% and

33% respectively.

Global semiconductors sales increased 14.7% y-o-y to

US$39.6bn in February 2021. Sales increased across all

markets: China (18.9%), Asia Pacific/All Other (18.2%), the

Americas (9.7%), Japan (7.6%), and Europe (6.8%).

We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on the sector. We see downside

risks for the share price of Delta Electronics (DELTA) that has

the highest weight in the overall SETETRON index. DELTA’s

share price has skyrocketed due to its limited free float and the

speculative trading linked to the SET50 index and other passive

indices.

We have a HOLD rating for SVI PCL (SVI). Despite the rebound

in sales, we believe these two companies are the most

vulnerable to a strong Thai baht (THB) and this could dampen

their potential earnings growth.

Our top picks are KCE Electronics (KCE) and HANA

Microelectronics (HANA). KCE is expected to post strong

growth in FY21F, thanks to the auto demand recovery. Also,

KCE also has plans to build a new production facility. We also

like HANA for its solid demand (thanks to its embrace of 5G

handsets) and its now clear capacity expansion plan.

Thailand: Electronics export sales (in million USD)

Source: Bank of Thailand, DBSVTH

Global semiconductor sales (in billion USD)

Source: WSTS, DBSVTH

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800


US$m

2019 2020 2021

Market Focus


recovery

Sector: Property Fund/REIT Underweight

Top BUYs: AIM Industrial Growth REIT (AIMIRT, BUY, TP

Bt15.00)

Least preferred stock: CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT

(CPNREIT, FULLY-VALUED, TP Bt17.70)

The sector index dropped 2.6% m-o-m in April 2021,

underperforming the market which eased 0.3%. This was due

the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in early April, which

has resulted in a significant jump in the infection rate and

thus semi-lockdown in certain provinces to contain the virus.

The sector’s yield then inched up slightly to 6.1% in 2021 (vs.

6.0% previously). This still offers healthy spread of 4.3% in

2021 vs 10-year treasury yield at 1.84%. Such spread is still

higher than the historical yield spread of 3.2%.

Our most preferred subsector remains industrial. We expect

this subsector to still benefit from the trade diversion theme

in the long term. Our top pick is AIM Industrial Growth REIT

(AIMIRT, BUY, Bt15.00) for its diversified portfolio of quality

assets in prime locations with full occupancy, long-lease

contracts that come with built-in escalation of growth rates

and revenue support schemes. It offers a generous yield of

c.8% with relatively low risks.

PFPO/REIT: Yield-spread over 10-yr govt bond

Source: DBSVTH

Market Focus


recovery

Revisions to recommendations

Company Revision to Rec. Revision Reason

Current Previous Date

Upgrade

DELTA FULLY VALUED SELL 22 Apr 21 Better-than-expected sales prospects but valuation remains lofty.

AOT BUY HOLD 27 Apr 21 Although we keep our current forecasts, we roll over our TP to

FY22F. As a result, our TP based on DCF valuation increases to

Bt73. Given the potential upside, we upgrade our call from HOLD

to BUY. Over the long term, we believe AOT should be a prime

beneficiary of a potential tourism recovery due to the monopolistic

nature of its business. The company still has concrete expansion

plans for both its aeronautical and non-aeronautical businesses.

Thus, we believe the stock is worth accumulating during periods of

share price weakness.

HMPRO BUY HOLD 28 Apr 21 We revised up our TP to Bt15.8 after lifting our earnings forecast

by assuming lower SGA to sales on better-than-expected cost

controls following the company’s strong 1Q21 earnings. Given

potential upside to our new TP and positive earnings growth

momentum in upcoming quarters, we upgrade our call from

HOLD to BUY.

Downgrade

None

Source: DBSVTH

Initiating coverage and equity explorer

Company Rec. TP Price Date Reason

Initiating Coverage

MICRO BUY 13.00 8 Apr 21 MICRO is a growth company that has yet to unleash its full

potential, as limited funding capped its growth in the past.

Management targets to double its loan outstanding to

Bt5bn by FY22F, while our loan growth assumptions are

more conservative at 30% p.a. for FY21F and FY22F. With

that, we expect MICRO’s earnings to expand 62.8% y-o-y in

FY21F and 39.7% y-o-y in FY22F. EKH BUY 7.00 8 Apr 21 We expect EKH to report high earnings growth in the next

three years, with FY21F -FY23F earnings growth of 41%,

23% and 17%, respectively. The high growth is expected to

come from: i) double- digit growth in cash patients from

strong growth for paediatric centres, ii) margin

improvement from ongoing cost savings and operating

leverage, and iii) return of Chinese patients in 2H21F for IVF

services. NRF BUY 12.00 9 Apr 21 NR Instant Produce (NRF) is an ethnic food producer with

over 30 years of experience and c. 2,000 SKUs of c.200

under OEM and its own brands. We expect NRF to post a

strong 2-year earnings compound annual growth rate

(CAGR) of 59.3% over 2020-2022F. Growth should come

from diversifying into plant-based and functional food

segments, which have faster growth and better margins.

Source: DBSVTH

Market Focus


recovery

DBSVTH recommendations are based on an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:

STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)

BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)

HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)

FULLY VALUED (negative total return, i.e., > -10% over the next 12 months)

SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)

*Share price appreciation + dividends

Completed Date: 5 May 2021 20:19:32 (THA)

Dissemination Date: 6 May 2021 05:47:13 (THA)

Sources for all charts and tables are DBSVTH unless otherwise specified.

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER

This report is prepared by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd (''DBSVTH''). This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd,

its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or

duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd

(''DBSVTH'').

The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to

DBS Bank Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents

(collectively, the “DBS Group”) have not conducted due diligence on any of the companies, verified any information or sources or taken into

account any other factors which we may consider to be relevant or appropriate in preparing the research. Accordingly, we do not make any

representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the research set out in this report. Opinions expressed are

subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does

not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document

is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should

obtain separate independent legal or financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or

consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further

communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell

any securities. The DBS Group, along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in

the securities mentioned in this document. The DBS Group, may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned

herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies.

Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and

there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or

risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete

or condensed, it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report and the DBS

Group is under no obligation to update the information in this report.

This publication has not been reviewed or authorized by any regulatory authority in Singapore, Hong Kong or elsewhere. There is no

planned schedule or frequency for updating research publication relating to any issuer.

The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates

and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the

estimates on which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary

significantly from actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments

described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with

the aforesaid entities), that:

(a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and

(b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or

risk assessments stated therein.

Market Focus


recovery

Please contact the primary analyst for valuation methodologies and assumptions associated with the covered companies or price targets.

Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies)

mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating

to the commodity referred to in this report.

DBSVUSA, a US-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research department, has not participated in any

public offering of securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months and does

not engage in market-making.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the

companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst(s) also certifies that no part of

his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. The

research analyst (s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that he or his associate1 does

not serve as an officer of the issuer or the new listing applicant (which includes in the case of a real estate investment trust, an officer of the

management company of the real estate investment trust; and in the case of any other entity, an officer or its equivalent counterparty of the

entity who is responsible for the management of the issuer or the new listing applicant) and the research analyst(s) primarily responsible for

the content of this research report or his associate does not have financial interests2 in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant that

the analyst reviews. DBS Group has procedures in place to eliminate, avoid and manage any potential conflicts of interests that may arise in

connection with the production of research reports. The research analyst(s) responsible for this report operates as part of a separate and

independent team to the investment banking function of the DBS Group and procedures are in place to ensure that confidential

information held by either the research or investment banking function is handled appropriately. There is no direct link of DBS Group's

compensation to any specific investment banking function of the DBS Group.

COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

1. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (''DBSVS'') or their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have a

proprietary position in ADVANC ,AOT ,BANPU ,BAY ,BBL ,BCP ,BDMS ,BEC ,BEM ,BTS ,CBG ,CPALL ,CPF ,CPN ,DTAC ,EGCO ,ESSO

,GPSC ,GULF ,HMPRO ,IRP ,ITD ,IVL ,KBANK ,KTB ,KTC ,LH ,LH ,MINT ,PTT ,PTTEP ,PTTGC ,RATCH ,SCB ,SCC ,SCGP ,STA ,TBEV

,TCAP ,THAI ,TISCOTMB ,TOP ,TOP ,TTW ,TU ,TRUE recommended in this report as of 31 Mar 2021

2. Neither DBS Bank Ltd nor DBS HK market makes in equity securities of the issuer(s) or company(ies) mentioned in this

Research Report.

3. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have a net long position exceeding 0.5% of the total

issued share capital in TMB Bank PCL recommended in this report as of 31 Jan 2021

4. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS, DBSVUSA or their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates beneficially own a total of 1% of any class

of common equity securities of TMB Bank PCL as of 28 Feb 2021

5. DBSVTH and its affiliates hold a proprietary position CPALL as of 30 Apr 2021

Compensation for investment banking services:

6. DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any public offering of

securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months. Any US

persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a

transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.

1 An associate is defined as (i) the spouse, or any minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, of the analyst; (ii) the trustee of a trust of

which the analyst, his spouse, minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, is a beneficiary or discretionary object; or (iii) another person

accustomed or obliged to act in accordance with the directions or instructions of the analyst.

2 Financial interest is defined as interests that are commonly known financial interest, such as investment in the securities in respect of an issuer or a

new listing applicant, or financial accommodation arrangement between the issuer or the new listing applicant and the firm or analysis. This term

does not include commercial lending conducted at arm's length, or investments in any collective investment scheme other than an issuer or new

listing applicant notwithstanding the fact that the scheme has investments in securities in respect of an issuer or a new listing applicant.

Market Focus


recovery

Disclosure of previous investment recommendation produced:

7. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (''DBSVS''), their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates may have

published other investment recommendations in respect of the same securities / instruments recommended in this research

report during the preceding 12 months. Please contact the primary analyst listed in the first page of this report to view

previous investment recommendations published by DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (''DBSVS''), their

subsidiaries and/or other affiliates in the preceding 12 months.

RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION

General This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or

resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication,

availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Australia This report is being distributed in Australia by DBS Bank Ltd, DBSVS or DBSV HK. DBS Bank Ltd holds Australian

Financial Services Licence no. 475946.

DBSVS and DBSV HK are exempted from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under

the Corporation Act 2001 (“CA”) in respect of financial services provided to the recipients. Both DBS Bank Ltd and

DBSVS are regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the laws of Singapore, and DBSV HK is

regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission under the laws of Hong Kong, which differ from

Australian laws.

Distribution of this report is intended only for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA.

Hong Kong This report has been prepared by an entity(ies) which is not licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures

Commission to carry on the regulated activity of advising on securities pursuant to the Securities and Futures

Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong). This report is being distributed in Hong Kong and is

attributable to DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a registered institution registered with the Hong Kong Securities

and Futures Commission to carry on the regulated activity of advising on securities pursuant to the Securities and

Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong). DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch is a limited liability

company incorporated in Singapore.

For any query regarding the materials herein, please contact Carol Wu (Reg No. AH8283) at [email protected]

Indonesia This report is being distributed in Indonesia by PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas Indonesia.

Malaysia This report is distributed in Malaysia by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ("ADBSR"). Recipients of this report,

received from ADBSR are to contact the undersigned at 603-2604 3333 in respect of any matters arising from or in

connection with this report. In addition to the General Disclosure/Disclaimer found at the preceding page,

recipients of this report are advised that ADBSR (the preparer of this report), its holding company Alliance

Investment Bank Berhad, their respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates, their directors, officers,

employees, agents and parties related or associated with any of them may have positions in, and may effect

transactions in the securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment

banking/corporate advisory and other services for the subject companies. They may also have received

compensation and/or seek to obtain compensation for broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other

services from the subject companies.

Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR

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recovery

Singapore This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) or DBSVS (Company

Regn No. 198600294G), both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and

regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBSVS, may distribute reports produced

by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under

Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who

is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility

for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should

contact DBS Bank Ltd at 6327 2288 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

Thailand This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd.

United

Kingdom

This report is produced by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd which is regulated by the Securities and

Exchange Commission, Thailand.

This report is disseminated in the United Kingdom by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd, ("DBSVUK"). DBSVUK is

authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom.

In respect of the United Kingdom, this report is solely intended for the clients of DBSVUK, its respective connected

and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or

duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBSVUK. This

communication is directed at persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any

investment activity following from this communication will only be engaged in with such persons. Persons who do

not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on this communication.

Dubai

International

Financial

Centre

This research report is being distributed by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) having its office at units 608 - 610, 6th

Floor, Gate Precinct Building 5, PO Box 506538, DIFC, Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) is

regulated by The Dubai Financial Services Authority. This research report is intended only for professional clients

(as defined in the DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act upon it.

United Arab

Emirates

This report is provided by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is an Exempt Financial Adviser as

defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This report is for

information purposes only and should not be relied upon or acted on by the recipient or considered as a

solicitation or inducement to buy or sell any financial product. It does not constitute a personal recommendation

or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual clients. You

should contact your relationship manager or investment adviser if you need advice on the merits of buying, selling

or holding a particular investment. You should note that the information in this report may be out of date and it is

not represented or warranted to be accurate, timely or complete. This report or any portion thereof may not be

reprinted, sold or redistributed without our written consent.

United States This report was prepared by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd (''DBSVTH''). DBSVUSA did not participate in

its preparation. The research analyst(s) named on this report are not registered as research analysts with FINRA

and are not associated persons of DBSVUSA. The research analyst(s) are not subject to FINRA Rule 2241

restrictions on analyst compensation, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading

securities held by a research analyst. This report is being distributed in the United States by DBSVUSA, which

accepts responsibility for its contents. This report may only be distributed to Major U.S. Institutional Investors (as

defined in SEC Rule 15a-6) and to such other institutional investors and qualified persons as DBSVUSA may

authorize. Any U.S. person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to

herein should contact DBSVUSA directly and not its affiliate.

Other

jurisdictions

In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for

qualified, professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such

jurisdictions.

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recovery

DBS Regional Research Offices

HONG KONG

DBS (Hong Kong) Ltd

Contact: Carol Wu

13th Floor One Island East,

18 Westlands Road,

Quarry Bay, Hong Kong

Tel: 852 3668 4181

Fax: 852 2521 1812

e-mail: [email protected]

MALAYSIA

AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd

Contact: Wong Ming Tek (128540 U)

19th Floor, Menara Multi-Purpose,

Capital Square,

8 Jalan Munshi Abdullah 50100

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Tel.: 603 2604 3333

Fax: 603 2604 3921


SINGAPORE

DBS Bank Ltd

Contact: Janice Chua

12 Marina Boulevard,

Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3

Singapore 018982

Tel: 65 6878 8888

Fax: 65 65353 418


Company Regn. No. 196800306E

THAILAND

DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd

Contact: Chanpen Sirithanarattanakul

989 Siam Piwat Tower Building,

9th, 14th-15th Floor

Rama 1 Road, Pathumwan,

Bangkok Thailand 10330

Tel. 66 2 857 7831

Fax: 66 2 658 1269


Company Regn. No 0105539127012

Securities and Exchange Commission, Thailand

INDONESIA

PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas (Indonesia)

Contact: Maynard Priajaya Arif

DBS Bank Tower

Ciputra World 1, 32/F

Jl. Prof. Dr. Satrio Kav. 3-5

Jakarta 12940, Indonesia

Tel: 62 21 3003 4900

Fax: 6221 3003 4943


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