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Medium Term Price Outlook on CopperFor February 2015

1

For February 2015

Market Recap

Copper prices traded sharply lower during the pastmonth taking cues from continuously declining crudeoil prices. Prices remained pressured by increasing

t ti f l h i th OND i dexpectations of supply overhang in the OND periodand weak Chinese economic numbers.

Major fundamental reasons behind the price directionWeak Chinese economic housing sector and decline in

‐2.24

‐0.71

‐3 87

‐1.94

‐0.56

4 15

LME Copper Price trend

Weak Chinese economic housing sector and decline in

manufacturing and industrial output despite measures from

PBOC

Record high refined Copper production numbers from China

U ti k i h i t i id ll l i h6687 6639 6383 5780 6739 6701 6423 5816

3.87

‐9.44

‐4.15

‐9.45

Uptick in exchange inventories amid seasonally sluggish

manufacturing activity in northern hemisphere.

Continuous decline in crude oil prices undermining the

global growth prospects and downside revisions to world

Oct Nov Dec Jan Oct Nov Dec Jan

LME 3 M LME CSP

Monthly Avg (USD per ton) M-o-M (%) Change

GDP numbers by IMF and world bank

Strength in dollar index amidst mounting expectations of

rate hike US while rest of the world keeps accommodative

policies

© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 2

p

ECB’s launch of QE supporting riskier assets

Supply disruptions in Peru and Zambia

Detailed Market AnalysisDetailed Market Analysis

3

Economic SummaryEconomic Summary

4

World GDP Outlook – revised lower for 2015

RegionTG World Bank IMF

2014 2015 2014 2015* 2015 2014 2015* 2015World 3.30 3.70 2.60 3.40 3.00 3.30 3.80 3.50Advanced economies 2 20 2 30 1 80 2 40 2 20 1 80 2 30 2 40Advanced economies 2.20 2.30 1.80 2.40 2.20 1.80 2.30 2.40Emerging markets 4.90 5.30 4.40 5.40 4.80 4.40 4.90 4.30US 2.60 2.70 2.40 3.00 3.20 2.40 3.10 3.60EU 0.80 1.00 0.80 1.80 1.10 0.80 1.40 1.20Japan 0.50 0.60 0.20 1.30 1.20 0.10 0.80 0.60China 7.40 7.10 7.40 7.50 7.10 7.40 7.10 6.80India 5.60 6.60 5.60 6.30 6.40 5.80 6.40 6.30

US and Indian growth remains strong – Leading global growth

Downside revision to Chinese growth could weigh on risk appetiteg g pp

EU and Japan growth projections revised downside by World Bankand IMF – In line with TG expectations


Global Economic SummaryUS economic growth, although slowed to 2.6% in Q4, but remained at a renewed 4‐year high last yearkeeping up the investor confidence on the strong economic recovery in US that could lead the globalrecovery.

US Dollar Index has risen to more than 8 year highs to 95 levels amid increasing expectations of rateUS Dollar Index has risen to more than 8 year highs to 95 levels amid increasing expectations of ratehike while EU and Japan persist with accommodative policy measures. However, FED has indicated inits latest statement that they would be patient in increasing the interest rates although maintainedthat they would be doing it should the economic numbers remain strong.

Th EU h i d d th t d t i i d fl ti i k id t l d ilThe EU recovery has remained under threat due to increasing deflationary risks amidst lower crude oilprices coupled with uneven economic activity in the shared currency union. Also, as the leftist partySyriza has won the Greece elections, concerns of fallout in the Euro area has led to risk aversionsentiment while Euro tumbled to multi year lows against the dollar.

Meanwhile, ECB has announced that they are going launch QE of 60 billion Euros per month from asearly as March till September 2016 which should bode well for Euro Zone which has witnessed growthin retail sales after the slump in prices.

China reported that factory sector shrank in in January for the first time in more than two years withChina reported that factory sector shrank in in January for the first time in more than two years withmanufacturing PMI coming in at 49.8, down from 50.1 in December. Chinese manufacturing companiesslowed production due New Year holiday and the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday while continueddeclines in commodity prices leading to widened factory gate deflation put a dent in productionaugmenting the slowdown in the sector


augmenting the slowdown in the sector.

China is likely provide further measures to deter economic slowdown concerns going ahead. Currently,sluggish manufacturing and weak property market is likely to remain a threat to undermine economicgrowth.

Monetary Policies around the globe

In its latest statement, Fed dropped its insistence that rates would be kept on hold for a “considerableperiod”, replacing it with the message that it could be “patient” about policy changes. Going ahead, weexpect that the economic data in the coming weeks and months continues to reflect a strengtheningUS economy, and the Fed’s patience might get tested.y, p g g

Since the downside risk to the US economy remains limited (lower commodity prices and strong labormarket should boost consumption and while also keeping inflation in check) we expect the Fedmembers might continue to remain dovish in the first half of 2015.

European Central Bank (ECB) announced at its rate meeting that it will buy 60 billion Euros worth ofsovereign bonds per month until September 2016 starting from March and amounts to 1.14 trillionEuros. The larger‐than‐expected QE scale led to sharp depreciation in Euro against the greenback.Although QE is expected to support the riskier asset classes including metals in the medium term, astrong dollar has kept the gains in check.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) pumped RMB 50 billion via seven‐day reverse repurchaseagreements in its regular open market operations in the later part of January. The central bank alsorolled over RMB 269 5 billion of three‐month loans extended to lenders in October and used therolled over RMB 269.5 billion of three month loans extended to lenders in October and used theMedium‐term Lending Facility (MLF) to add a further RMB 50 billion to smooth supply before theChinese New Year holiday. This coupled with weakness in Chinese manufacturing sector fueledspeculations over further easing measures from PBOC. It is likely that PBOC may announce a rate cutahead of the holiday period


ahead of the holiday period.

Overall, monetary polices around the globe at present are likely to remain favorable for base metals inthe medium term.

Continued housing revival and job growth to keep US growth strong

2%

4%

6%US GDP growth (QoQ annualized)

8

9

10

11

‐500

0

500

1000US Employment situation

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

4

5

6

7

8

‐2500

‐2000

‐1500

‐1000

500

-10%

-8%

Mar‐08 Dec‐08 Sep‐09 Jun‐10 Mar‐11 Dec‐11 Sep‐12 Jun‐13 Mar‐14 Dec‐14

Jun‐07

Dec

‐07

Jun‐08

Dec

‐08

Jun‐09

Dec

‐09

Jun‐10

Dec

‐10

Jun‐11

Dec

‐11

Jun‐12

Dec

‐12

Jun‐13

Dec

‐13

Jun‐14

Dec

‐14

Nonfarm payroll change (000) Unemployment rate (%)

US Consumer sentiment US Housing starts (SAAR 000 units)

75

80

85

90

95US Consumer sentiment

1200

1400

1600US Housing starts (SAAR 000 units)

55

60

65

70

75

600

800

1000


50

Jun‐07

Dec

‐07

Jun‐08

Dec

‐08

Jun‐09

Dec

‐09

Jun‐10

Dec

‐10

Jun‐11

Dec

‐11

Jun‐12

Dec

‐12

Jun‐13

Dec

‐13

Jun‐14

Dec

‐14

400

Jun‐07

Dec

‐07

Jun‐08

Dec

‐08

Jun‐09

Dec

‐09

Jun‐10

Dec

‐10

Jun‐11

Dec

‐11

Jun‐12

Dec

‐12

Jun‐13

Dec

‐13

Jun‐14

Dec

‐14

China has entered into a low but sustainable growth phase

10

11

12

13

2300

2800

3300Chinese New Loans and GDP growth

100

120

140

160China quarterly trade balance (USD Billion)

6

7

8

9

10

800

1300

1800

20

40

60

80

China New Loans (CNY Bn) China GDP growth (% YoY)

China forex reserves (USD Trillion)

‐20

0

China quarterly hot money flows (USD Billion)

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5( )

0

50

100

150

200

250q y y ( )

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

‐250

‐200

‐150

‐100

‐50

0


0.0 ‐300

Major Macro Themes Going Ahead

Lower growth forecast

Downside revisions to global growth forecast by IMF and World bank continue to addpressure on base metal demand prospects (China and EU)pressure on base metal demand prospects (China and EU).

Stronger Dollar

A strong dollar hovering at 95 levels will continue to exert pressure on dollard i t d ditidenominated commodities.

Chinese worries and stimulus hopes

Weakness in Chinese manufacturing sector has fueled further hopes for stimulusmeasures from PBOC ( rate cut). Announcement from PBOC may support prices in theshort term.

Oil price decline

Continuous decline in oil prices to more than six year lows has increased deflationaryscenario in EU while sparkled concerns over growth in major oil exporting nations(Brazil and Russia). Extended weakness in crude oil prices is likely to further pressureother commodities


other commodities.

Copper Market AnalyticsCopper Market Analytics

11

Global Copper Market SnD Balance

Global refined Copper market balance

97 KT in 2014 (ICSG est ‐270 KT)

90 K i 201 (ICSG 390 K )2 75 2 99 3 21 3 10 4 08 2 994

5

6

7Global Copper Supply and demand

5.52 5.48 5.63 5.66 5.67 5.83 5.60 5.655.71 6.00

590 KT in 2015 (ICSG est 390 KT)

Tighter H2 2015 compared to H1

2014 Demand growth of 3.46% vs productionh f

1.902.73

1.932.67

1.882.46 1.91

2.501.92

2.66

3.632.75

3.702.99

3.83 3.21 3.93 3.10 4.08 2.99

0

1

2

3

4

d d d d d growth of 4.04%

Chinese Demand

Stockpiling by SRB and China spending on power

Prod. Cons. Prod. Cons. Prod. Cons. Prod. Cons. Prod. Cons.

OND 2014 JFM 2015 AMJ 2015 JAS 2015 OND 2015

China RoW

4.16Global Copper supply and demand balancesector (UHV lines) will keep the demand intact.

However, financing concerns and sluggishconstruction sector will weigh on theconsumption profile

231

3453.323.61 3.62 4.01

P d ti l / d fi it (KT) consumption profile

US economic growth remains positive for demand.47

‐29

43

Production surplus / deficit (KT)No. of Weeks of Consumption


OND 2014 JFM 2015 AMJ 2015 JAS 2015 OND 2015

Copper – Effective Balance Sheet

Description 2014 E 2015 P TG 2014 ICSG

Refined Copper Production 22.104 23.175 22.146

Consumption 22.007 22.585 22.443p

P‐C balance 0.097 0.590 ‐ 0.307

Ending Stocks (Producer and Consumer) 0.85 0.98 ‐‐

Ending Stocks (Exchange) 0 31 0 63Ending Stocks (Exchange) 0.31 0.63 ‐‐

China Bonded Warehouse Stocks 0.70 0.69 ‐‐

No. of Weeks of Consumption 2.74 3.71 ‐‐

N f W k f C i (I l B d dNo. of Weeks of Consumption (Incl Bonded warehouse stocks)

4.39 5.30 ‐‐

Source: ICSG, Reuters, TG Estimates (All Figures are in Million tons)# stocks including Chinese SRB reseves estimated to be around 3 million tons, which could raise g ,the weeks to consumption by around 7 weeks

Exchange stocks continues to hover at record low levels – Tightening physical market


Chinese bonded warehouse stocks and financing deals pose threat to prices – could pour insurplus material into the markets

Mine Output ‐ Trends

Declining ore grades due to ageing of the ores (0.7%in 2012 to 0.4%) led to sluggish growth in Chilean481

493 492

481

491

6.4%

3 8%

Chile Copper Mine ProductionProduction (KT) YoY Growth Rate

supply while expansion got delayed due tounforeseen problems (Hales mine).

Chile production declined for a fifth straight monthd h l l f l

470

464 463

475

‐0.6%

3.8%

2.1%

‐3.4%‐2.3%

‐5 3%

‐3.2%

compared to the levels of last year.

Chile reduced its 2014 production guidance to 5.83million tons from 6.1 million tons projected earlier inthe yearChi Mi dC O t t

‐5.3%

‐7.7%

Mar‐14 Apr‐14 May‐14 Jun‐14 Jul‐14 Aug‐14 Sep‐14 Oct‐14 Nov‐14

the year.

However, as the delays in expansion are done with,the imminent concentrate supply is likely to have hitthe market in Q4.

155

206

180

165174

182168

182 18342.4%

China Mined Copper Output

Production (KT) YoY Growth

Q

Strike in Antamina mine and royalty hike in Zambiaand sharp price fall likely to undermine theproduction growth.

13.0%14.8%

2.2% 3.0%12.9%

6.5% 6.0%9.4%


Apr‐14 May‐14 Jun‐14 Jul‐14 Aug‐14 Sep‐14 Oct‐14 Nov‐14 Dec‐14

Lower Prices to affect the mine production

Capacity Cuts Announced in the past one monthCompany

Mine LocationCutback

announced (KT)Ri Ti t K tt US 100Rio Tinto Kennecott US 100

BHP Billiton Escondida Chile 150Glencore Alumbrera Argentina 50BarrickG ld

Lumwana Zambia 120Gold

Zambia has increased royalty on open pit operations to 20% from 6% starting from Jan 1st. The increase has led to

suspension of operations from Barrick Gold at its Lumwana mine affecting 120 thousand tons of productionsuspension of operations from Barrick Gold at its Lumwana mine affecting 120 thousand tons of production.

Also, after the price decline, major companies have announced capacity curtailments as shown in the table above

amounting to 300 thousands tons.

Further, cuts in Copper mine output across the globe are raising doubts about the extent of the expected surplus.

Concisely, while it is possible for output cuts to be announced over the coming month, the price trigger for such

action could be below USD 5000 than at current levels. Hence, the current surplus expectations are likely to put


prices under pressure in the short‐term unless a significant output cut is announced to wipe out the expected

surplus.

Record High Refined Production Numbers in China

China has produced 833 thousand tons of refined

copper in December, a record high for fourth594 584 615

623 634680

714 733755

833

35%

China Refined CopperProduction

Production (KT) Growth Rate YoY

consecutive month, up by 35% from a year ago,

augmenting the fears of supply glut in the refined

market.

19%21%

15% 15%

15%

China’s refined copper output stands at 7.8 million

tons, up by 14% for 2014. In Q4 itself the output is up

6% 5%

8%10%

15% 15%

Mar‐14 Apr‐14 May‐14 Jun‐14 Jul‐14 Aug‐14 Sep‐14 Oct‐14 Nov‐14 Dec‐14

9

12

100

120 TC/RCs for Copper Concentrates by 22%.

Freeport has agreed to pay higher TC/RCs for the next

year with Chinese Jiangxi Copper and Japan’s Pan

0

3

6

40

60

80

TC (USD/t)

RC (c/lb)

y g pp p

Pacific. The charges rose USD 107 per ton to treat

concentrate and 10.7 cents a pound to refine the

t l Th t thi USD 92 t d 9 2


0402009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 P

metal. The rates this year were USD 92 a ton and 9.2

cents a pound.

Pick up in Chinese refined Copper Imports

397

324341

283 289306 320 315

‐50

0

50

350

400

450

Chinese Copper Imports (KT)Refined CopperArbitrage (Changjiang‐LME),RHS

279 283255 245 234

289

‐200

‐150

‐100

‐50

100

150

200

250

300

‐300

‐250

0

50

100

Jan‐14 Feb‐14Mar‐14Apr‐14May‐14Jun‐14 Jul‐14 Aug‐14 Sep‐14 Oct‐14 Nov‐14Dec‐14

Imports of refined copper have remained sluggish during JAS period amidst crackdown on metal financing post

Qingdao port probe in June.

However, imports have picked up in the recent months even as the arbitrage premium of spot price remained

negative making it less inducive for Chinese physical traders as counterparty confidence has increased in the metal

financing operations.

Imports of unwrought copper including semis stand at 4.8 million tons for 2014, up by 8.5% compared to a year


earlier while refined copper imports are up by 12% to 3.59 million tons.

Copper Scrap Market ‐ Tightness

Tight scrap market led to lower copper scrap imports

by China during the past year.303 320 303

360 343392

332 322

3673%

1%

China Copper Scrap ImportsImports (KT) YoY Change

Meager profit for scrap traders amid price decline and

abundant copper concentrate stocks at copper

lt i d ti d i Chi

263

‐13%

‐5%

‐16%

‐10%

‐1%

‐7% ‐8%

smelters as mine production ramped up in China

while concentrate imports also increased leading to

decline in scrap imports.

‐22%

‐25%

Mar‐14 Apr‐14 May‐14 Jun‐14 Jul‐14 Aug‐14 Sep‐14 Oct‐14 Nov‐14 Dec‐14

High prices offered by foreign scrap suppliers leave

Chinese secondary copper producers in tough

situation0%

5%

10%

15%

2,500

3,000 Copper Scrap Imports in China

Imports (KT)

YoY Change, RHS

situation.

Scrap imports for going ahead are likely to decline in

further, going ahead, amidst sharp decline in prices.‐20%

‐15%

‐10%

‐5%

1 000

1,500

2,000


‐20%1,000H1

2012H2

2012H1

2013H2

2013H1

2014H2

2014H1

2015 PH2

2015 P

China – Impact Factors

Earlier, subdued factory output in China has

resulted in decline in Chinese imports and

apparent demand51 0

51.5

52.0

1000

1100

Chinese Copper Consumption vs Manufacturing PMI

apparent demand.

However, amid stimulus measures from PBOC

(rate cut) and resumptions of trend in financing49.5

50.0

50.5

51.0

600

700

800

900

Apparent Consumption KT

activities, import demand has picked up despite

slowdown in factory output.

I th i d t i l f t Chi ’ IP th

48.5

49.0

500

600

Feb‐13 May‐13 Aug‐13 Nov‐13 Feb‐14 May‐14 Aug‐14 Nov‐14

China Manufacturing PMI

In the industrial front, China’s IP growth seen

declining amid inventory buildup.

However, copper mine production relatively9.5

11.0

200

250

Chinese Copper Mine Production and IP growth

improved as expansions took hold.

Going ahead, Suspension in northern china region

d f lli ld h i5 0

6.5

8.0

50

100

150


due to falling temperatures could hurt mine

production. Disruptions are likely to be there till

next march.

5.050Feb‐13 Jun‐13 Oct‐13 Feb‐14 Jun‐14 Oct‐14

Copper Mine Production (KT) IP Growth rate, RHS

Deficit in the refined market – likely to narrow going ahead

4%

5%

6%

5.555.605.655.70

Global Copper Supply and DemandGlobal refined Copper market remained in deficit as

reported by the ICSG. However, higher production

numbers in China are likely to narrow the deficit for

0%

1%

2%

3%

5.255.305.355.405.455.50

numbers in China are likely to narrow the deficit for

2014.

Meanwhile, as imports remained strong the

-1%5.20AMJ 2014 AMJ 2014 JAS 2014 OND 2014 JFM 2015

Supply (MT) Demand (MT) Supply growth (%) Demand growth (%)

apparent consumption in china grew at a stronger

pace and keep the market under deficit. However,

it is likely that the market will be under surplus

10%

15%

20%

1 50

2.00

2.50

3.00Chinese Copper Supply and Demand

going ahead as the boded stocks gets released into

the market.

-5%

0%

5%

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

AMJ 2014 AMJ 2014 JAS 2014 OND 2014 JFM 2015

It is expected with higher production numbers in

china and refined copper imports, bonded

warehouse stocks have increased during OND by


AMJ 2014 AMJ 2014 JAS 2014 OND 2014 JFM 2015

Supply (MT) Demand (MT) Supply growth (%) Demand growth (%)100 thousand tons to around 700 thousands tons.

Inventory Movement – Negative for Prices

200

250 LME Stocks ('000 tons)Europe USA Asia

30

35

40LME Cancelled Tonnage ('000 tons)

USA Europe Asia

50

100

150

10

15

20

25

025‐Jul 25‐Aug 25‐Sep 25‐Oct 25‐Nov 25‐Dec

0

5

3‐Oct 24‐Oct 14‐Nov 5‐Dec 26‐Dec 16‐Jan

LME Open Tonnage ('000 tons) 160 SHFECopper Stocks ('000tons)

150

200

250 LME Open Tonnage ('000 tons)Asia Europe USA

80

100

120

140

160 SHFE Copper Stocks ('000tons)

Cancelled Warrant On Warrant

50

100

0

20

40

60Oct

Oct

Oct

Oct

Nov Nov

Nov

Nov

Dec Dec

Dec

Dec an an Jan

Jan

Jan


026‐Sep 17‐Oct 7‐Nov 28‐Nov 19‐Dec 9‐Jan 10

‐O

17‐O

24‐O

31‐O

7‐N

14‐N

21‐N

28‐N 5‐D

12‐D

19‐D

26‐D 2‐J

9‐J

16‐ J

23‐J

30‐J

Premiums

115 110

138 133

115 113112 112120

140

160Term Premium charged by Codelco (USD/T)

China Japan Europe

Amid seasonally slow time for manufacturing

activity, bonded warehouse premiums in China fell

9898 9385

9890 85

40

60

80

100to as low as USD 60 from USD 95 during December

while European premiums fell by around USD 20 to

USD 50‐100 a ton compared with USD 70‐100 a ton

0

20

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

in early September.

Codelco has offered a premium of USD 133 for 2015

term shipments to China down by 3 6 % from thatterm shipments to China, down by 3.6 % from that

of 2014 while for Europe kept unchanged and

increased to US to USD 88.90

100

110China bonded warehouses premium (USD/T)

The decline in premiums reflects the effect of

crackdown on commodity financing in China that led

to lower refined copper imports while spot60

70

80


to lower refined copper imports while spot

premiums have declined towards the end of the

year.

501‐Aug 1‐Sep 1‐Oct 1‐Nov 1‐Dec 1‐Jan

Summary of Market AnalysisSummary of Market Analysis

23

Key Price Drivers Going Ahead

Bearish factors

Supply over hang in the refined market: record high production numbers from China (22% up inQ4) to add to the concerns of supply overhang in the market.

Chinese economic outlook and strong dollar: weakness in manufacturing sector to continue toweigh on the demand prospects while dollar to pressure the dollar denominated commodities.

Continuous decline in crude oil price and global growth downside revisions: Downsiderevisions to the global growth forecasts by IMF and World Bank amidst lower commodity pricescontinue to weigh on Copper.

Bullish factors

Supply Disruptions: hike in royalty tax in Zambia and lower prices to affect supply in southAfrican countries and Peru.

Resumption of trend in Chinese imports: Higher imports despite financing concerns and furtherexport tax rebate on finished products, that is likely to push up refined copper imports, tosupport Copper prices.

Strength in US economy and accommodative policies from EU and Japan : While inherentstrength in US economy remains strong accommodative policy measure by ECB could keep the


strength in US economy remains strong, accommodative policy measure by ECB could keep theinvestors interested in riskier assets.

Technical analysisTechnical analysis

25

LME Copper SELECT 3 – Month Forward Elliott wave analysis

LME Copper 3 month forward prices broke below last 2 month’s consolidation placing minute wave b This extension of

© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide

LME Copper 3 month forward prices broke below last 2 month s consolidation placing minute wave b. This extension ofbroader minor wave C would hold support of USD 5100‐5000 and witness a marginal bounce towards USD 6000 beforefalling further towards USD 5400 zone in mid of year 2015. Prices are likely to post long term bottom near USD 5000.

26

LME Copper SELECT 3 – Month Forward Mother chart analysis

Copper 3 Month forward prices broke below support of USD 5800 and currently struggling above USD 5000‐5100. This


Copper 3 Month forward prices broke below support of USD 5800 and currently struggling above USD 5000 5100. Thisrange of USD 5300‐5600 would continue for next 2‐3 weeks before break above USD 5600 towards USD 5950 zone infirst quarter of year 2015.

27

Price outlook summary

LME Copper prices are expected to consolidate in the range of USD5200‐5600 2‐3 weeks and break above USD 5600 towards USD 60005200‐5600 2‐3 weeks and break above USD 5600 towards USD 6000in coming 1‐2 months.

Price rangeExchange Jan 30th, 2015

Price range

Feb 2014 Mar 2015 Apr 2015

LME 5427.5 5100‐5700 5400‐6000 6000‐5500LME 5427.5 5100 5700 5400 6000 6000 5500


LME Copper SELECT 3 – Month Forward Elliott wave analysis

LME Copper 3 month forward prices broke below last 2 month’s consolidation placing minute wave b. This extension ofbroader minor wave C would hold support of USD 6200 and witness a marginal bounce towards USD 6400‐6500 before


broader minor wave C would hold support of USD 6200 and witness a marginal bounce towards USD 6400‐6500 beforefalling further towards USD 5800‐5600 zone in mid of year 2015. Prices are likely to post long term bottom in this zone.

29

LME Copper SELECT 3 – Month Forward Mother chart analysis

Copper 3 Month forward prices broke below support of USD 6500 and currently struggling above USD


pp p pp y gg g6200. This range of USD 6200‐6500 would continue for next 2‐3 weeks before break below USD 6000towards USD 5800 zone in first quarter of year 2015.

30

Price outlook summary

LME Copper prices are expected to consolidate in the range of USD6200‐6500 for 2‐3 weeks and break below USD 6000 towards USD5800 in coming 1‐2 months.

ExchangeLast Closing

(Dec 30, 2014)

Price range

Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015

LME 6316 6500 – 6000 5800 – 6100 5900 – 6400


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32

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